Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-19/BULBUL-19
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MATMO-19/BULBUL-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Bangladesh, India
Exposed population 130 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 90 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.9 m (09 Nov 19:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 90 km/h 1.9 m 196 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 205 km/h 2.6 m 624 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

205 km/h

Up to 42.2 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1India125847 
Tropical StormBangladesh, India42159767
+
Bangladesh23685010 
India18474757 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 104 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Laos, Vietnam
GREEN 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 202 130 thousand
- - - - Bangladesh, India




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmBangladesh, India878476
+
Bangladesh878443 
India33 
250-500 mmBangladesh, India7853092
+
Bangladesh7813650 
India39442 
100-250 mmBangladesh, India36939884
+
Bangladesh21465406 
India15474478 
50-100 mmBangladesh, India56459336
+
Bangladesh38012742 
India18446594 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 221 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 284 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 393 120 thousand
- - - - Vietnam
Blue 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 238 540 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos
Blue 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 348 1.7 million
- - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 244 160 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 183 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 223 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 672 45.7 million
- - Bangladesh, India




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.9m in Bara Pata, Bangladesh. This height is estimated for 09 Nov 2019 19:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
09 Nov 2019 19:15 Bara Pata Bangladesh  1.9
09 Nov 2019 19:15 Dakshin Char Fasson Bangladesh  1.9
09 Nov 2019 19:15 Char Pyarimohan Bangladesh  1.9
09 Nov 2019 19:15 Char Annadaprasad Bangladesh  1.9
09 Nov 2019 19:15 Chandpur Bangladesh  1.9
09 Nov 2019 19:15 Char Lakshmi Bangladesh  1.9
09 Nov 2019 19:15 Kanchanpur Bangladesh  1.9
09 Nov 2019 19:15 Rabipur Bangladesh  1.9
09 Nov 2019 19:15 Char Faizuddin Bangladesh  1.9
09 Nov 2019 19:15 Char Krishnaprasad Bangladesh  1.9
09 Nov 2019 19:15 Char Manpura Bangladesh  1.9
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Kalipur Bangladesh  1.9
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Bara Patharghata Bangladesh  1.9
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Jnanpara Bangladesh  1.9
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Chhota Nishanbaria Chak Bangladesh  1.9
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Dhalua Bangladesh  1.9
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Bara Bagi Bangladesh  1.9
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Chhota Bagi Bangladesh  1.9
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Mahipur Bangladesh  1.9
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Chandkhali Bangladesh  1.9
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Burir Char Bangladesh  1.9
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Kachupatra Bangladesh  1.9
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Arpangasia Bangladesh  1.9
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Bara Baliatali Bangladesh  1.9
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Kalapara Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Bamnia Bangladesh  1.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Charparbati Bangladesh  1.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Munshir Hat Bangladesh  1.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Tulatali Bangladesh  1.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Char Fakura Bangladesh  1.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Char Chandia Bangladesh  1.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Bara Ahmadpur Bangladesh  1.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Banskhali Bangladesh  1.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Bariakhali Bangladesh  1.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Akbar Hat Bangladesh  1.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Dhalapara Bangladesh  1.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Ghoshbagh Bangladesh  1.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Sandwip Bangladesh  1.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Jafarnagar Bangladesh  1.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Barabkunda Bangladesh  1.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Bansbaria Bangladesh  1.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Chandhuri Hat Bangladesh  1.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Hatia Bangladesh  1.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Khaser Hat Bangladesh  1.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Nalchira Bangladesh  1.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Ewazbalia Bangladesh  1.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Nayamasti Bangladesh  1.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Kumira Bangladesh  1.6
09 Nov 2019 18:30 Jahajmara Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 18:30 Maijchara Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 18:30 Sagaria Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Bhatiari Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Dakhin Kattali Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Dakhin Patenga Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Chittagong Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Char Lakshia Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Gahira Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Janali Hat Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Kalapul Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Khankhanabad Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Anowara Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Noapara Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 21:15 Ali Akbardeil Bangladesh  0.9
09 Nov 2019 21:15 Dhurung Bangladesh  0.9
09 Nov 2019 21:15 Lemsikhali Bangladesh  0.9
09 Nov 2019 21:15 Magnama Bangladesh  0.9
09 Nov 2019 21:15 Napura Bangladesh  0.9
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Uttar Nalbila Bangladesh  0.8
09 Nov 2019 20:45 Dhalghata Bangladesh  0.8
09 Nov 2019 20:30 Kalarmarchara Bangladesh  0.7
09 Nov 2019 20:30 Saflapur Bangladesh  0.7
09 Nov 2019 20:15 Amavasyakhali Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Char Chandra Prasad Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Chandpur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Char Kali Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Pangasia Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Harni Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Goal Bhaor Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Char Medua Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 South Dighaldi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Kalupura Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Char Munsi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Hazari Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Hazipur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Jagannathpur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Char Lawrence Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Char Falcon Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Sakusia Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Char Madhyam Lamchhidhali Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Char Kadira Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Char Algi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Baga Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Char Gazi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Miar Hat Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Char Ramiz Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Char Bedama Bangladesh  0.6
09 Nov 2019 20:15 Ghatibhanga Bangladesh  0.6
09 Nov 2019 20:15 Coxs Bazar Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Dasher Hat Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Char Ishwar Ray Bangladesh  0.5
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Kelatali Bangladesh  0.4
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Khurushkul Bangladesh  0.4
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Fasiakhali Bangladesh  0.4
08 Nov 2019 20:30 Rasalpur India  0.4
08 Nov 2019 20:30 Chandipur India  0.4
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Pechardwip Bangladesh  0.3
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Jaliapalong Bangladesh  0.3
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Dhoapalong Bangladesh  0.3
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Inani Bangladesh  0.3
09 Nov 2019 21:30 Monakhali Bangladesh  0.3
09 Nov 2019 21:30 Silkhali Bangladesh  0.3
07 Nov 2019 07:45 Saluzeik Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 07:45 Thingangyi Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 07:45 Seikkyi Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 07:45 Thingangon Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 07:45 Kyauktazi Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 04:45 Akechaungwa Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 04:45 Ase Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 04:45 Tawgyaik Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 04:45 Ale-ywa Myanmar  0.3
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Tumbru Myanmar  0.3
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Whaikhyang Bangladesh  0.3
07 Nov 2019 13:00 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 13:00 Alanbya Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 13:00 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 13:00 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 13:00 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 13:00 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 13:00 Kawbein Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 05:00 Pyapon Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 05:00 Apaung Myanmar  0.3
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Bardeil Bangladesh  0.2
07 Nov 2019 08:15 Kadonkani Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 08:15 Yegyawgyi Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 08:15 Ama Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 13:00 Damathat Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 12:45 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 12:45 Zokali Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 12:45 Taungxun Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 06:00 Dawnvein Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 07:00 Zibyugyaung Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 07:00 Pyinkayaing Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 07:00 Wagon Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 07:00 Ledaung Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 07:00 Chaunggwa Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 07:00 Magyigyaing Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 07:00 Thetkethaung Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 04:30 Karen India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Dakshim Nhila Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Atikhalipara Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Teknaf Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Kyunbouk Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Sabaigon Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Ale Kalaywa Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Kanyinchaung Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 12:00 Mahameik Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 12:00 Thamaseikta Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 08:00 Chetpauk Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 11:15 Taunggyi Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 11:15 Budin Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 11:15 Kadaik Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 11:15 Donwun Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 11:00 Shangyaung Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 11:15 Kangyisu Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 22:00 Hukitala India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 21:30 Dakhinpara Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 21:30 Jaliapara Bangladesh  0.2
07 Nov 2019 07:15 Okkan Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 11:30 Tanbingyaung Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 21:45 Satabhaya India  0.2
07 Nov 2019 10:15 Khindan Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 10:15 Darein Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 10:15 Munaing Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 10:15 Tagukana Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 10:15 Kawpamagon Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 10:15 Paung Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 21:15 Nyaunggyaung Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Zawmadat Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 05:00 Kakinada India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Geonkhali India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Nurpur India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Diamond Harbor India  0.2
07 Nov 2019 09:30 Kwanhla Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 05:45 Alandaing Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 05:45 Hseikma Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 09:00 Kyaikkami Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 08:45 Kayindaung Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 08:30 Wegalaung Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 08:30 Karokpi Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Anauk Myinhlut Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Kyaukpandu Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Thawinchaung Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 08:15 Wagaru Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 08:30 Anin Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:45 Atet Kyaungdaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 22:45 Donbaik Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 22:45 Rathedaung Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 08:15 Thinbawzeik Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 00:00 Ilichar India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 08:15 Konada India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 08:15 Koyyam India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 08:15 Dharmavaram India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 23:00 Kudaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 13:45 Myaukpyin Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 13:45 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 13:45 Kyaukmaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 13:45 Ponnagyi Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 13:45 Gwedaukchaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 13:45 Kyaukpyinseik Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 13:45 Sandawshin Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 13:45 Tandin Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 14:00 Chaunggya Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 14:00 Peikseik Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 14:00 Khamaungdwe Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 22:15 Nuliasahi India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 22:15 Nuagan India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Barisal Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Aicha Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 19:00 At Hazar Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Bisarad Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Bisarikati Charkhanda Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Bageswari Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Mahisha Gagaria Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Chandkati Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Bazemahal Bangladesh  0.1
07 Nov 2019 01:45 Bhimunipatnam India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 14:00 Phapholting Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 08:15 Srikurman India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 01:45 Chittivalasa India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 10:30 Dani-thagya Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 10:30 Khawsa Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 10:15 Bogyiywa Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:15 Ywathitke Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:15 Sittwe Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 05:15 Palalankwe India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 10:30 Kalawni Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 10:30 Onbingwin Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:15 Kangyaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:15 Pyaingdaung Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 08:15 Vishakhapatnam India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 02:00 Arainj-laka-punga India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 02:00 Kartara India  0.1

Calculation folder at this link