Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-19/BULBUL-19
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MATMO-19/BULBUL-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Bangladesh
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 0 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.1 m (10 Nov 18:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 0 km/h 0.0 m 0 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 205 km/h 2.6 m 624 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

205 km/h

Up to 110 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormBangladesh108825 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 104 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Laos, Vietnam
GREEN 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmBurma16042 
50-100 mmIndia, Burma170361
+
India8315 
Burma162046 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 221 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 284 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 393 120 thousand
- - - - Vietnam
Blue 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 238 540 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos
Blue 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 348 1.7 million
- - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 244 160 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 183 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 223 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.1m in Bara Pata, Bangladesh. This height is estimated for 10 Nov 2019 18:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Nov 2019 18:30 Bara Pata Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 18:30 Char Pyarimohan Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 18:30 Char Madhyam Lamchhidhali Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 18:30 Char Annadaprasad Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 18:30 Chandpur Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 18:30 Char Lakshmi Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 18:30 Kanchanpur Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 18:30 Rabipur Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 18:30 Char Krishnaprasad Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 18:30 Char Manpura Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 18:30 Char Gazi Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 18:30 Dasher Hat Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 20:30 Hazipur Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 20:30 Char Algi Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 20:30 Char Ramiz Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 19:45 Hatia Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 19:45 Nalchira Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 19:45 Char Ishwar Ray Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 18:45 Char Chandra Prasad Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 18:45 Chandpur Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 18:45 Char Kali Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 18:45 Pangasia Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 18:45 Harni Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 18:45 Goal Bhaor Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 18:45 Char Medua Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 18:45 South Dighaldi Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 18:45 Kalupura Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 18:45 Char Munsi Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 18:45 Hazari Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 18:45 Jagannathpur Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 18:45 Char Lawrence Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 18:45 Char Falcon Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Char Bedama Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Chandhuri Hat Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Khaser Hat Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Ewazbalia Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 19:30 Sakusia Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 19:30 Baga Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 19:30 Char Kadira Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Miar Hat Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Bamnia Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Charparbati Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Munshir Hat Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Tulatali Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Char Fakura Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Char Chandia Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Bara Ahmadpur Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Banskhali Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Bariakhali Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Sandwip Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Akbar Hat Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Dhalapara Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Jafarnagar Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Barabkunda Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Bansbaria Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Kumira Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Ghoshbagh Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Nayamasti Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Dakshin Char Fasson Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Char Faizuddin Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Bhatiari Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Dakhin Kattali Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Dakhin Patenga Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Chittagong Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Char Lakshia Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Gahira Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Janali Hat Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Kalapul Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Khankhanabad Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Anowara Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 20:45 Noapara Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 22:45 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 22:45 Alanbya Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 22:45 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 22:45 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 22:45 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 22:45 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 22:45 Kawbein Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 22:45 Damathat Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 20:15 Anauk Myinhlut Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 20:15 Kyaukpandu Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 20:15 Thawinchaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 20:15 Atet Kyaungdaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 20:15 Donbaik Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 20:15 Rathedaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 20:30 Bardeil Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 20:30 Atikhalipara Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 20:30 Teknaf Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 20:30 Dakhinpara Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 20:30 Ale Kalaywa Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 20:30 Kanyinchaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 20:30 Jaliapara Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 20:30 Nyaunggyaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 20:30 Zawmadat Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 22:45 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 22:45 Zokali Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 22:45 Taungxun Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Monakhali Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Silkhali Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Whaikhyang Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Dakshim Nhila Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Kyunbouk Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Sabaigon Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 20:30 Kudaung Myanmar  0.1

Calculation folder at this link