Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-19/BULBUL-19
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MATMO-19/BULBUL-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Bangladesh, India
Exposed population 90 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 115 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (07 Nov 16:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 115 km/h 0.2 m 154 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 205 km/h 2.6 m 624 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

205 km/h

Up to 34.9 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2India3655 
CAT. 1India, Bangladesh84771
+
Bangladesh7 
India84764 
Tropical StormBangladesh, India34882377
+
Bangladesh18168881 
India16713496 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 104 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Laos, Vietnam
GREEN 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 198 90 thousand
- - - Bangladesh, India




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmBangladesh, India9457338
+
India1011589 
Bangladesh8445749 
100-250 mmIndia, Bangladesh35452056
+
India8731415 
Bangladesh26720641 
50-100 mmIndia, Bangladesh68552401
+
India24840229 
Bangladesh43712172 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 221 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 284 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 393 120 thousand
- - - - Vietnam
Blue 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 238 540 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos
Blue 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 348 1.7 million
- - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 244 160 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 183 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 223 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 679 44.9 million
- - - India, Bangladesh




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Nuralrevu, India. This height is estimated for 07 Nov 2019 16:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
07 Nov 2019 16:30 Nuralrevu India  0.2
07 Nov 2019 16:30 Gopalpur India  0.2
07 Nov 2019 16:30 Karen India  0.2
07 Nov 2019 16:30 Konada India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 16:30 Koyyam India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 16:30 Dharmavaram India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 17:45 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 17:45 Alanbya Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 17:45 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 17:45 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 17:45 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 17:45 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 17:45 Kawbein Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 17:45 Kakinada India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 16:00 Ilichar India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 17:45 Damathat Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 17:45 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 17:45 Zokali Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 17:45 Taungxun Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:00 Shangyaung Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:00 Mahameik Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 16:30 Chatrapur India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 17:30 Taunggyi Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 17:30 Budin Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 17:30 Kadaik Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 17:30 Donwun Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 17:45 Kangyisu Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:00 Thamaseikta Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 16:30 Vishakhapatnam India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 16:30 Chittivalasa India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 16:30 Bhimunipatnam India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:00 Tanbingyaung Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 16:30 Saluzeik Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 16:30 Thingangyi Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 16:30 Seikkyi Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 16:30 Thingangon Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 16:30 Kyauktazi Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 16:15 Naupada India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 16:15 Ammalapadu India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:00 Khindan Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 14:15 Canjam India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 14:15 Paluru India  0.1

Calculation folder at this link