Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-19/BULBUL-19
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MATMO-19/BULBUL-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Bangladesh, India
Exposed population 970 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 205 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.6 m (09 Nov 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 205 km/h 1.6 m 343 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 205 km/h 2.6 m 624 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

205 km/h

Up to 970 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2India118 
CAT. 1Bangladesh, India969106
+
Bangladesh648619 
India320487 
Tropical StormBangladesh, India119712629
+
Bangladesh85798792 
India33913837 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 104 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Laos, Vietnam
GREEN 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Nov 2019 18:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 08 Nov 2019 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 08 Nov 2019 06:00 205 970 thousand
- - - Bangladesh, India




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmBangladesh, India31015336
+
India3336841 
Bangladesh27678495 
100-250 mmBangladesh, India42051246
+
India8116737 
Bangladesh33934509 
50-100 mmIndia, Bangladesh47629962
+
India28554822 
Bangladesh19075140 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 221 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 284 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 393 120 thousand
- - - - Vietnam
Blue 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 238 540 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos
Blue 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 348 1.7 million
- - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 244 160 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 183 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 223 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Nov 2019 18:00 294 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 08 Nov 2019 00:00 364 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 08 Nov 2019 06:00 434 73.1 million
- - - India, Bangladesh




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.6m in Kalipur, Bangladesh. This height is estimated for 09 Nov 2019 16:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
09 Nov 2019 16:00 Kalipur Bangladesh  1.6
09 Nov 2019 16:00 Bara Patharghata Bangladesh  1.6
09 Nov 2019 16:00 Jnanpara Bangladesh  1.6
09 Nov 2019 16:00 Chhota Nishanbaria Chak Bangladesh  1.6
09 Nov 2019 16:00 Dhalua Bangladesh  1.6
09 Nov 2019 16:00 Bara Bagi Bangladesh  1.6
09 Nov 2019 16:00 Chhota Bagi Bangladesh  1.6
09 Nov 2019 16:00 Mahipur Bangladesh  1.6
09 Nov 2019 16:00 Chandkhali Bangladesh  1.6
09 Nov 2019 16:00 Burir Char Bangladesh  1.6
09 Nov 2019 16:00 Kachupatra Bangladesh  1.6
09 Nov 2019 16:00 Arpangasia Bangladesh  1.6
09 Nov 2019 16:00 Bara Baliatali Bangladesh  1.6
09 Nov 2019 16:00 Kalapara Bangladesh  1.6
09 Nov 2019 17:00 Bara Pata Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 17:00 Dakshin Char Fasson Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 17:00 Char Pyarimohan Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 17:00 Char Annadaprasad Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 17:00 Chandpur Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 17:00 Char Lakshmi Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 17:00 Kanchanpur Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 17:00 Rabipur Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 17:00 Char Faizuddin Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 17:00 Char Krishnaprasad Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 17:00 Char Manpura Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Bamnia Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Charparbati Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Munshir Hat Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Tulatali Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Char Fakura Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Char Chandia Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Bara Ahmadpur Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Banskhali Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Bariakhali Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Akbar Hat Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Dhalapara Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Jafarnagar Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Chandhuri Hat Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Hatia Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Khaser Hat Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Nalchira Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Ewazbalia Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Barabkunda Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Bansbaria Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Sandwip Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:15 Ghoshbagh Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:15 Kumira Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 21:30 Nayamasti Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 13:30 Jahajmara Bangladesh  0.8
09 Nov 2019 13:30 Maijchara Bangladesh  0.8
09 Nov 2019 13:30 Sagaria Bangladesh  0.8
09 Nov 2019 18:15 Bhatiari Bangladesh  0.7
09 Nov 2019 18:15 Dakhin Kattali Bangladesh  0.7
09 Nov 2019 18:15 Dakhin Patenga Bangladesh  0.7
09 Nov 2019 18:15 Chittagong Bangladesh  0.7
09 Nov 2019 18:15 Char Lakshia Bangladesh  0.7
09 Nov 2019 18:15 Gahira Bangladesh  0.7
09 Nov 2019 18:15 Janali Hat Bangladesh  0.7
09 Nov 2019 18:15 Kalapul Bangladesh  0.7
09 Nov 2019 18:15 Khankhanabad Bangladesh  0.7
09 Nov 2019 18:15 Anowara Bangladesh  0.7
09 Nov 2019 18:15 Noapara Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Char Algi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Char Gazi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Char Ramiz Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Char Bedama Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Dasher Hat Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Char Ishwar Ray Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Char Madhyam Lamchhidhali Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Char Chandra Prasad Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Chandpur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Char Kali Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Pangasia Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Harni Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Goal Bhaor Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Char Medua Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 South Dighaldi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Kalupura Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Char Munsi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Hazari Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Hazipur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Jagannathpur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Char Lawrence Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Char Falcon Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Sakusia Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Baga Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Char Kadira Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Miar Hat Bangladesh  0.6
09 Nov 2019 17:45 Ali Akbardeil Bangladesh  0.4
09 Nov 2019 17:45 Dhurung Bangladesh  0.4
09 Nov 2019 17:45 Lemsikhali Bangladesh  0.4
09 Nov 2019 17:45 Magnama Bangladesh  0.4
09 Nov 2019 17:45 Napura Bangladesh  0.4
09 Nov 2019 17:45 Uttar Nalbila Bangladesh  0.4
09 Nov 2019 17:45 Dhalghata Bangladesh  0.4
09 Nov 2019 17:30 Kalarmarchara Bangladesh  0.4
09 Nov 2019 17:30 Saflapur Bangladesh  0.4
09 Nov 2019 18:15 Amavasyakhali Bangladesh  0.3
09 Nov 2019 18:00 Ghatibhanga Bangladesh  0.3
09 Nov 2019 18:00 Coxs Bazar Bangladesh  0.3
09 Nov 2019 09:15 Geonkhali India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 09:15 Nurpur India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 09:15 Diamond Harbor India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 23:15 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 23:15 Alanbya Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 23:15 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 23:15 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 23:15 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 23:15 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 23:15 Kawbein Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 23:15 Damathat Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 16:45 Rasalpur India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 16:45 Chandipur India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 15:15 Chetpauk Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Zokali Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Taunggyi Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Budin Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Kadaik Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Donwun Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 14:45 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 14:45 Taungxun Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:15 Thamaseikta Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 14:45 Kangyisu Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Kelatali Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Khurushkul Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Fasiakhali Bangladesh  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:45 Hukitala India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:45 Satabhaya India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 14:30 Tanbingyaung Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:15 Mahameik Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 09:45 Nuralrevu India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 09:45 Gopalpur India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 14:30 Khindan Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 18:45 Barisal Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 18:45 Aicha Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 18:45 At Hazar Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 18:45 Bisarad Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 18:45 Bisarikati Charkhanda Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 18:45 Bageswari Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 18:45 Mahisha Gagaria Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 18:45 Chandkati Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 18:45 Bazemahal Bangladesh  0.2
08 Nov 2019 09:45 Chatrapur India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Pechardwip Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Jaliapalong Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Dhoapalong Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Inani Bangladesh  0.2
08 Nov 2019 07:45 Baruva India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 23:15 Monakhali Bangladesh  0.1
08 Nov 2019 23:15 Silkhali Bangladesh  0.1
08 Nov 2019 23:15 Bardeil Bangladesh  0.1
08 Nov 2019 23:15 Whaikhyang Bangladesh  0.1
08 Nov 2019 23:15 Dakshim Nhila Bangladesh  0.1
08 Nov 2019 23:15 Atikhalipara Bangladesh  0.1
08 Nov 2019 23:15 Teknaf Bangladesh  0.1
08 Nov 2019 23:15 Kyunbouk Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 23:15 Sabaigon Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 23:15 Ale Kalaywa Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 23:15 Kanyinchaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 09:00 Pyapon Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 09:00 Apaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 09:00 Akechaungwa Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 09:00 Ase Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Shangyaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:00 Malud India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 12:15 Canjam India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 12:15 Paluru India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 09:15 Tawgyaik Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 05:45 Tumbru Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:45 Darein Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:45 Paung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 19:00 Ale-ywa Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 12:00 Konada India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 12:00 Koyyam India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 12:00 Dharmavaram India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 13:15 Kakinada India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 10:30 Ammalapadu India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 07:45 Naupada India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 23:30 Nyaunggyaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 09:45 Srikurman India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 09:45 Kalingapatnam India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 05:45 Dawnvein Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 10:15 Pudimadaka India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 10:15 Chipurupalle India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 20:45 Nuliasahi India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 10:00 Puri India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 10:00 Balighai India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 13:00 Nuagan India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 06:00 Alandaing Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 06:00 Hseikma Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 12:45 Kyaukpandu Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 12:45 Thawinchaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:45 Dakhinpara Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:45 Jaliapara Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 17:45 Zawmadat Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 11:15 Pentakota India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Konarak India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 12:00 Bhimunipatnam India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 10:15 Saluzeik Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 10:15 Thingangyi Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 10:15 Seikkyi Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 10:15 Thingangon Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 10:15 Kyauktazi Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:30 Panasapada India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 15:15 Anauk Myinhlut Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 09:15 Kadonkani Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 09:15 Yegyawgyi Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 09:15 Ama Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:15 Munaing Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:15 Tagukana Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:15 Kawpamagon Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 08:15 Magyi-ywa Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 08:15 Gyibyin Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 11:30 Pata Polvaram India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 07:45 Vishakhapatnam India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Ilichar India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 17:30 Palalankwe India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 17:30 Chetamale India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 08:00 Taung-ywa Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 08:00 Taikkyua Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 12:15 Kwanhla Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 12:15 Kyaikkami Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 10:30 Karen India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 12:30 Kayindaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:00 Pyaingdaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:00 Sandawshin Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 20:15 Kyaukpyinseik Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 20:15 Myaukpyin Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 20:15 Tandin Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 20:15 Kyaukmaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 20:15 Ponnagyi Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Thabyichaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Nga Thamok Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 13:00 Amaw Myanmar  0.1

Calculation folder at this link