Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-19/BULBUL-19
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MATMO-19/BULBUL-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries India, Bangladesh
Exposed population 350 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 158 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.5 m (09 Nov 18:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 158 km/h 1.5 m 209 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 205 km/h 2.6 m 624 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

205 km/h

Up to 350 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2India244 
CAT. 1Bangladesh, India351663
+
India345649 
Bangladesh6014 
Tropical StormIndia, Bangladesh128082720
+
India44314366 
Bangladesh83768354 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 104 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Laos, Vietnam
GREEN 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Nov 2019 18:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 08 Nov 2019 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 08 Nov 2019 06:00 205 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 08 Nov 2019 12:00 202 350 thousand
- - - India, Bangladesh




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmBangladesh, India36492652
+
India6541689 
Bangladesh29950963 
100-250 mmIndia, Bangladesh56530051
+
India14003056 
Bangladesh42526995 
50-100 mmBhutan, India, Bangladesh, Burma40709293
+
Bhutan115 
India22774913 
Bangladesh17934241 
Burma24 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 221 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 284 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 393 120 thousand
- - - - Vietnam
Blue 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 238 540 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos
Blue 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 348 1.7 million
- - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 244 160 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 183 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 223 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Nov 2019 18:00 294 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 08 Nov 2019 00:00 364 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 08 Nov 2019 06:00 343 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 08 Nov 2019 12:00 467 93 million
- - - Bhutan, India, Bangladesh, Burma




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.5m in Bara Pata, Bangladesh. This height is estimated for 09 Nov 2019 18:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
09 Nov 2019 18:45 Bara Pata Bangladesh  1.5
09 Nov 2019 18:45 Dakshin Char Fasson Bangladesh  1.5
09 Nov 2019 18:45 Char Pyarimohan Bangladesh  1.5
09 Nov 2019 18:45 Char Annadaprasad Bangladesh  1.5
09 Nov 2019 18:45 Chandpur Bangladesh  1.5
09 Nov 2019 18:45 Char Lakshmi Bangladesh  1.5
09 Nov 2019 18:45 Kanchanpur Bangladesh  1.5
09 Nov 2019 18:45 Rabipur Bangladesh  1.5
09 Nov 2019 18:45 Char Faizuddin Bangladesh  1.5
09 Nov 2019 18:45 Char Krishnaprasad Bangladesh  1.5
09 Nov 2019 18:45 Char Manpura Bangladesh  1.5
09 Nov 2019 15:30 Kalipur Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 15:30 Bara Patharghata Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 15:30 Jnanpara Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 15:30 Chhota Nishanbaria Chak Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 15:30 Dhalua Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 15:30 Bara Bagi Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 15:30 Chhota Bagi Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 15:30 Mahipur Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 15:30 Chandkhali Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 15:30 Burir Char Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 15:30 Kachupatra Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 15:30 Arpangasia Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 15:30 Bara Baliatali Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 15:30 Kalapara Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Bamnia Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Charparbati Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Munshir Hat Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Tulatali Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Char Fakura Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Char Chandia Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Bara Ahmadpur Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Banskhali Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Bariakhali Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Akbar Hat Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Dhalapara Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Jafarnagar Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Barabkunda Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Bansbaria Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 01:45 Sandwip Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 01:45 Ghoshbagh Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Kumira Bangladesh  1.1
09 Nov 2019 21:30 Chandhuri Hat Bangladesh  1.1
09 Nov 2019 21:30 Hatia Bangladesh  1.1
09 Nov 2019 21:30 Khaser Hat Bangladesh  1.1
09 Nov 2019 21:30 Nalchira Bangladesh  1.1
09 Nov 2019 21:30 Ewazbalia Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 01:15 Nayamasti Bangladesh  1.1
09 Nov 2019 13:00 Jahajmara Bangladesh  0.8
09 Nov 2019 13:00 Maijchara Bangladesh  0.8
09 Nov 2019 13:00 Sagaria Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Bhatiari Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Dakhin Kattali Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Dakhin Patenga Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Chittagong Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Char Lakshia Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Gahira Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Janali Hat Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Kalapul Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Khankhanabad Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Anowara Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Noapara Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Char Algi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Char Gazi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Char Ramiz Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Dasher Hat Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Char Ishwar Ray Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Char Bedama Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Char Madhyam Lamchhidhali Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Hazipur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Char Chandra Prasad Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Chandpur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Char Kali Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Pangasia Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Harni Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Goal Bhaor Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Char Medua Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 05:00 South Dighaldi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Kalupura Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Char Munsi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Hazari Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Jagannathpur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Char Lawrence Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Char Falcon Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Char Kadira Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Miar Hat Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Sakusia Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Baga Bangladesh  0.6
09 Nov 2019 09:15 Geonkhali India  0.4
09 Nov 2019 09:15 Nurpur India  0.4
09 Nov 2019 09:15 Diamond Harbor India  0.4
10 Nov 2019 00:30 Ali Akbardeil Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 00:30 Dhurung Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 00:30 Lemsikhali Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 00:30 Magnama Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 00:30 Napura Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 00:45 Uttar Nalbila Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 00:15 Dhalghata Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 00:30 Kalarmarchara Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 00:30 Saflapur Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Amavasyakhali Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Ghatibhanga Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Coxs Bazar Bangladesh  0.3
08 Nov 2019 15:30 Rasalpur India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:30 Chandipur India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 14:15 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 14:15 Alanbya Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 14:15 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 14:15 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 14:15 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 14:15 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 14:15 Kawbein Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 14:30 Damathat Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 13:45 Satabhaya India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Zokali Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Taunggyi Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Budin Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Kadaik Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Donwun Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 14:45 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 14:45 Taungxun Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 13:15 Hukitala India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 14:45 Kangyisu Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:15 Thamaseikta Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 03:45 Kelatali Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 03:45 Khurushkul Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 03:45 Fasiakhali Bangladesh  0.2
08 Nov 2019 14:30 Tanbingyaung Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:15 Mahameik Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Pechardwip Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Jaliapalong Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Dhoapalong Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Inani Bangladesh  0.2
08 Nov 2019 17:00 Baruva India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 14:30 Khindan Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 15:30 Chetpauk Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 14:00 Malud India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Ilichar India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 02:00 Monakhali Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 02:00 Silkhali Bangladesh  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:30 Tumbru Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:30 Whaikhyang Bangladesh  0.2
08 Nov 2019 13:15 Nuliasahi India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 13:15 Nuagan India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 16:30 Bardeil Bangladesh  0.2
08 Nov 2019 16:30 Dakshim Nhila Bangladesh  0.2
08 Nov 2019 16:30 Atikhalipara Bangladesh  0.2
08 Nov 2019 16:30 Teknaf Bangladesh  0.2
08 Nov 2019 16:30 Kyunbouk Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 16:30 Sabaigon Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 16:30 Ale Kalaywa Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 16:30 Kanyinchaung Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 20:45 Konarak India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Shangyaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 12:15 Chatrapur India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 12:15 Canjam India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 12:15 Paluru India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:30 Gopalpur India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:00 Nuralrevu India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:30 Panasapada India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:45 Darein Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:45 Paung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:00 Vishakhapatnam India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:00 Bhimunipatnam India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 18:45 Naupada India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 18:45 Ammalapadu India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Kalingapatnam India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 12:00 Konada India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 12:00 Koyyam India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 12:00 Dharmavaram India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 21:15 Puri India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 21:15 Balighai India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 17:30 Karen India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 17:15 Kakinada India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:15 Pudimadaka India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:15 Chipurupalle India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 15:15 Dakhinpara Bangladesh  0.1
08 Nov 2019 15:15 Jaliapara Bangladesh  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:45 Anauk Myinhlut Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:45 Kyaukpandu Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:45 Thawinchaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 10:45 Nyaunggyaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 23:45 Pentakota India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 23:45 Venkatapuram India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 23:45 Pata Polvaram India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:45 Zawmadat Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 19:00 Akechaungwa Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 19:00 Ase Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 19:00 Tawgyaik Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 03:45 Atet Kyaungdaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 03:45 Donbaik Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 03:45 Rathedaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:15 Chittivalasa India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:00 Pyaingdaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:00 Sandawshin Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:15 Munaing Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:15 Tagukana Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:15 Kawpamagon Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 19:30 Mawyen Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 19:30 Kyeintali Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 19:00 Ale-ywa Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 12:15 Srikurman India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 05:15 Apaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 06:45 Dawnvein Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:30 Myaukpyin Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:30 Tandin Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:30 Kyaukmaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:30 Khamaungdwe Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 05:30 Pyapon Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 12:15 Kwanhla Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 12:15 Kyaikkami Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 21:15 Saluzeik Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 21:15 Thingangyi Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 21:15 Seikkyi Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 21:15 Thingangon Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 21:15 Kyauktazi Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 12:30 Kayindaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 06:15 Alandaing Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 06:15 Hseikma Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 19:45 Kudaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 21:00 Kyaukpyinseik Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 21:00 Ponnagyi Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 21:45 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 21:45 Gwedaukchaung Myanmar  0.1

Calculation folder at this link