Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-19/BULBUL-19
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MATMO-19/BULBUL-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Bangladesh, India
Exposed population 2.1 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 173 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.4 m (09 Nov 21:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 173 km/h 1.4 m 194 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 205 km/h 2.6 m 624 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

205 km/h

Up to 2.1 million in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Nov 2019 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 3India10966 
CAT. 2India325343 
CAT. 1Bangladesh, India1746588
+
Bangladesh236406 
India1510182 
Tropical StormBangladesh, India121195265
+
Bangladesh70452864 
India50742401 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 104 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Laos, Vietnam
GREEN 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Nov 2019 18:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 08 Nov 2019 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 08 Nov 2019 06:00 205 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 08 Nov 2019 12:00 158 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
GREEN 17 08 Nov 2019 18:00 198 2.1 million
- - Bangladesh, India




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Nov 2019 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmBangladesh, India1199006
+
India169864 
Bangladesh1029142 
250-500 mmBangladesh, India21273888
+
India12641988 
Bangladesh8631900 
100-250 mmBhutan, India, Bangladesh62945866
+
Bhutan749 
India25958518 
Bangladesh36986599 
50-100 mmBhutan, India, Bangladesh28815062
+
Bhutan21579 
India11159214 
Bangladesh17634269 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 221 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 284 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 393 120 thousand
- - - - Vietnam
Blue 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 238 540 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos
Blue 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 348 1.7 million
- - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 244 160 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 183 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 223 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Nov 2019 18:00 294 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 08 Nov 2019 00:00 364 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 08 Nov 2019 06:00 343 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 08 Nov 2019 12:00 209 -
- - - - - Bangladesh
Blue 17 08 Nov 2019 18:00 611 85.4 million
- - Bhutan, India, Bangladesh




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.4m in Kalipur, Bangladesh. This height is estimated for 09 Nov 2019 21:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Nov 2019 18:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Kalipur Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Bara Patharghata Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Jnanpara Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Chhota Nishanbaria Chak Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Dhalua Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Bara Bagi Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Chhota Bagi Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Mahipur Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Chandkhali Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Burir Char Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Kachupatra Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Arpangasia Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Bara Baliatali Bangladesh  1.4
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Kalapara Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 00:45 Bara Pata Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 00:45 Dakshin Char Fasson Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 00:45 Char Pyarimohan Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 00:45 Char Annadaprasad Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 00:45 Chandpur Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 00:45 Char Lakshmi Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 00:45 Kanchanpur Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 00:45 Rabipur Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 00:45 Char Faizuddin Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 00:45 Char Krishnaprasad Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 00:45 Char Manpura Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Bamnia Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Charparbati Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Munshir Hat Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Tulatali Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Char Fakura Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Char Chandia Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Bara Ahmadpur Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Banskhali Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Bariakhali Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Akbar Hat Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Dhalapara Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Jafarnagar Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Barabkunda Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Bansbaria Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 05:45 Sandwip Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Ghoshbagh Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Kumira Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Hatia Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Khaser Hat Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Nalchira Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Ewazbalia Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Nayamasti Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 05:15 Chandhuri Hat Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Bhatiari Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Dakhin Kattali Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Dakhin Patenga Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Chittagong Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Char Lakshia Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Gahira Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Janali Hat Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Kalapul Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Khankhanabad Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Anowara Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Noapara Bangladesh  0.7
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Jahajmara Bangladesh  0.6
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Maijchara Bangladesh  0.6
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Sagaria Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Char Chandra Prasad Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Chandpur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Char Kali Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Pangasia Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Harni Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Goal Bhaor Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Char Medua Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 South Dighaldi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Kalupura Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Char Munsi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Hazari Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Hazipur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Jagannathpur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Char Lawrence Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Char Falcon Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Sakusia Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Char Madhyam Lamchhidhali Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Char Kadira Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Char Algi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:30 Char Gazi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:30 Char Ramiz Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:30 Char Bedama Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 13:00 Dasher Hat Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 13:00 Char Ishwar Ray Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:15 Miar Hat Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:15 Baga Bangladesh  0.6
09 Nov 2019 12:30 Geonkhali India  0.5
09 Nov 2019 12:30 Nurpur India  0.5
09 Nov 2019 12:30 Diamond Harbor India  0.5
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Ali Akbardeil Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Dhurung Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Lemsikhali Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Magnama Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Napura Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Uttar Nalbila Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 02:15 Dhalghata Bangladesh  0.3
09 Nov 2019 03:00 Rasalpur India  0.3
09 Nov 2019 03:00 Chandipur India  0.3
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Kalarmarchara Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Saflapur Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 01:45 Amavasyakhali Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 01:45 Ghatibhanga Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 01:45 Coxs Bazar Bangladesh  0.3
08 Nov 2019 18:45 Nuliasahi India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 18:45 Nuagan India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Alanbya Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Kawbein Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 19:15 Canjam India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 19:15 Paluru India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 19:15 Malud India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 22:15 Konarak India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:15 Damathat Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:30 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:30 Zokali Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:30 Taungxun Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 21:45 Hukitala India  0.2
10 Nov 2019 00:45 Kelatali Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 00:45 Khurushkul Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 00:45 Fasiakhali Bangladesh  0.2
08 Nov 2019 19:00 Puri India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 21:15 Balighai India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 23:45 Pentakota India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 23:45 Venkatapuram India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 23:45 Pata Polvaram India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 10:00 Pechardwip Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 10:00 Jaliapalong Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 10:00 Dhoapalong Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 10:00 Inani Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Konada India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Koyyam India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Dharmavaram India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 19:30 Baruva India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Kalingapatnam India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Naupada India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 19:45 Monakhali Bangladesh  0.2
08 Nov 2019 19:45 Silkhali Bangladesh  0.2
08 Nov 2019 19:45 Tumbru Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 19:45 Whaikhyang Bangladesh  0.2
08 Nov 2019 22:30 Ammalapadu India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 09:45 Chetpauk Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 09:45 Bardeil Bangladesh  0.1
11 Nov 2019 11:00 Taunggyi Myanmar  0.1
11 Nov 2019 11:00 Budin Myanmar  0.1
11 Nov 2019 10:45 Kadaik Myanmar  0.1
11 Nov 2019 10:45 Donwun Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 21:00 Panasapada India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 01:30 Vishakhapatnam India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 01:30 Bhimunipatnam India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 21:30 Gopalpur India  0.1
11 Nov 2019 10:45 Kangyisu Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:30 Nuralrevu India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 23:15 Chatrapur India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 16:00 Kakinada India  0.1
11 Nov 2019 11:00 Thamaseikta Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Pudimadaka India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Chipurupalle India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:15 Dakshim Nhila Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:15 Atikhalipara Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:15 Teknaf Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:15 Kyunbouk Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:15 Sabaigon Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:15 Ale Kalaywa Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:15 Kanyinchaung Myanmar  0.1
11 Nov 2019 11:00 Tanbingyaung Myanmar  0.1
11 Nov 2019 11:30 Mahameik Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 23:00 Srikurman India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:15 Chittivalasa India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 23:45 Satabhaya India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 20:45 Dakhinpara Bangladesh  0.1
08 Nov 2019 20:45 Jaliapara Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 04:00 Anauk Myinhlut Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 04:00 Kyaukpandu Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 04:00 Thawinchaung Myanmar  0.1
11 Nov 2019 11:15 Khindan Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:30 Zawmadat Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 04:15 Atet Kyaungdaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 04:15 Donbaik Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 04:15 Rathedaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 23:30 Nyaunggyaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 19:00 Akechaungwa Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 19:00 Ase Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 19:00 Tawgyaik Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 19:45 Kudaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 21:00 Kyaukpyinseik Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 21:00 Sandawshin Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 21:00 Myaukpyin Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 21:00 Tandin Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 21:00 Kyaukmaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 21:00 Ponnagyi Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 19:00 Ale-ywa Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:00 Amaw Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:00 Hpanchaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:00 Gyibyin Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:00 Temauk Myanmar  0.1
11 Nov 2019 11:45 Darein Myanmar  0.1
11 Nov 2019 11:45 Paung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 18:30 Apaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 19:00 Taung-ywa Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 19:00 Taikkyua Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 19:00 Thabyichaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 19:00 Nga Thamok Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 19:00 Magyi-ywa Myanmar  0.1
11 Nov 2019 11:45 Shangyaung Myanmar  0.1

Calculation folder at this link