Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-19/BULBUL-19
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MATMO-19/BULBUL-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries India, Bangladesh
Exposed population 1 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 137 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.3 m (10 Nov 01:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 137 km/h 1.3 m 150 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 205 km/h 2.6 m 624 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

205 km/h

Up to 1 million in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1India1041950 
Tropical StormIndia, Bangladesh128853272
+
India53560482 
Bangladesh75292790 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 104 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Laos, Vietnam
GREEN 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Nov 2019 18:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 08 Nov 2019 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 08 Nov 2019 06:00 205 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 08 Nov 2019 12:00 158 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
GREEN 17 08 Nov 2019 18:00 173 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
GREEN 18 09 Nov 2019 00:00 155 1 million
- - - - India, Bangladesh




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmIndia131520 
250-500 mmBangladesh, India32060363
+
India21312542 
Bangladesh10747821 
100-250 mmBhutan, India, Bangladesh62200664
+
India22142629 
Bhutan15591 
Bangladesh40042444 
50-100 mmIndia, Bhutan, Burma, Bangladesh40016020
+
India11095340 
Bhutan6176 
Burma408385 
Bangladesh28506119 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 221 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 284 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 393 120 thousand
- - - - Vietnam
Blue 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 238 540 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos
Blue 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 348 1.7 million
- - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 244 160 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 183 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 223 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Nov 2019 18:00 294 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 08 Nov 2019 00:00 364 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 08 Nov 2019 06:00 343 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 08 Nov 2019 12:00 209 -
- - - - - Bangladesh
Blue 17 08 Nov 2019 18:00 194 -
- - - - - Bangladesh, India
Blue 18 09 Nov 2019 00:00 515 94.4 million
- - India, Bhutan, Burma, Bangladesh




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.3m in Bara Pata, Bangladesh. This height is estimated for 10 Nov 2019 01:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Bara Pata Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Dakshin Char Fasson Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Char Pyarimohan Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Char Annadaprasad Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Chandpur Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Char Lakshmi Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Kanchanpur Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Rabipur Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Char Faizuddin Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Char Krishnaprasad Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Char Manpura Bangladesh  1.3
09 Nov 2019 23:15 Kalipur Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:15 Bara Patharghata Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:15 Jnanpara Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:15 Chhota Nishanbaria Chak Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:15 Dhalua Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:15 Bara Bagi Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:15 Chhota Bagi Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:15 Mahipur Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:15 Chandkhali Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:15 Burir Char Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:15 Kachupatra Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:15 Arpangasia Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:15 Bara Baliatali Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:15 Kalapara Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Bamnia Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Charparbati Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Munshir Hat Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Tulatali Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Char Fakura Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Char Chandia Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Bara Ahmadpur Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Banskhali Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Bariakhali Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Akbar Hat Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Dhalapara Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Jafarnagar Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Barabkunda Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Bansbaria Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Sandwip Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 05:45 Ghoshbagh Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 03:45 Chandhuri Hat Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 03:45 Hatia Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 03:45 Khaser Hat Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 03:45 Nalchira Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 03:45 Ewazbalia Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Kumira Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Nayamasti Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Jahajmara Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Maijchara Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Sagaria Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 07:15 Bhatiari Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 07:15 Dakhin Kattali Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 07:15 Dakhin Patenga Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 07:15 Chittagong Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 07:15 Char Lakshia Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 07:15 Gahira Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 07:15 Janali Hat Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 07:15 Kalapul Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 07:15 Khankhanabad Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 07:15 Anowara Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 07:15 Noapara Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Char Algi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Char Gazi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Char Ramiz Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Dasher Hat Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Char Ishwar Ray Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Char Bedama Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 13:45 Char Madhyam Lamchhidhali Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 13:30 Hazipur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Char Chandra Prasad Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Chandpur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Char Kali Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Pangasia Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Harni Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Goal Bhaor Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Char Medua Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:30 South Dighaldi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Kalupura Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Char Munsi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Hazari Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Jagannathpur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Char Lawrence Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Char Falcon Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Sakusia Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Baga Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Char Kadira Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Miar Hat Bangladesh  0.6
09 Nov 2019 02:15 Rasalpur India  0.5
09 Nov 2019 02:15 Chandipur India  0.5
09 Nov 2019 15:30 Geonkhali India  0.5
09 Nov 2019 15:30 Nurpur India  0.5
09 Nov 2019 15:30 Diamond Harbor India  0.5
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Ali Akbardeil Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Dhurung Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Lemsikhali Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 07:15 Magnama Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 07:15 Napura Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Uttar Nalbila Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Dhalghata Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Kalarmarchara Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Saflapur Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Amavasyakhali Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Ghatibhanga Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Coxs Bazar Bangladesh  0.3
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Konada India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Koyyam India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Dharmavaram India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:15 Hukitala India  0.2
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Kelatali Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Khurushkul Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Fasiakhali Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Alanbya Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Kawbein Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Satabhaya India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 16:00 Kakinada India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Kalingapatnam India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Naupada India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:45 Pentakota India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:45 Venkatapuram India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:45 Pata Polvaram India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Nuliasahi India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Nuagan India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:15 Damathat Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Konarak India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 10:00 Vishakhapatnam India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 10:00 Chittivalasa India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 10:00 Bhimunipatnam India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:30 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:30 Zokali Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:30 Taungxun Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Pechardwip Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Jaliapalong Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Dhoapalong Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Inani Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 02:00 Nathahu Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 02:00 Kunthidaw Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 02:00 Sinma Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 14:30 Chetpauk Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Pudimadaka India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Chipurupalle India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:30 Nuralrevu India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 01:30 Ammalapadu India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:00 Monakhali Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:00 Silkhali Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:00 Tumbru Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:00 Bardeil Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:00 Whaikhyang Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Dakshim Nhila Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Atikhalipara Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Teknaf Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Kyunbouk Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Sabaigon Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Ale Kalaywa Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Kanyinchaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 05:30 Baruva India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Malud India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Balighai India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Barisal Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Aicha Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 22:30 At Hazar Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Bisarad Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Bisarikati Charkhanda Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Bageswari Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Mahisha Gagaria Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Chandkati Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Bazemahal Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:30 Mahameik Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:30 Thamaseikta Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 03:30 Anauk Myinhlut Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 03:30 Kyaukpandu Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 03:30 Thawinchaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 01:30 Gopalpur India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 01:30 Chatrapur India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 01:30 Canjam India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 04:15 Atet Kyaungdaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 04:15 Donbaik Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 04:15 Rathedaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Taunggyi Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Budin Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Kadaik Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Donwun Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 07:15 Kudaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:45 Srikurman India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:30 Dakhinpara Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:30 Jaliapara Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:30 Zawmadat Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Kangyisu Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 02:00 Sittwe Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 02:00 Pyaingdaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 02:00 Kyaukpyinseik Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 02:00 Sandawshin Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Paluru India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:30 Panasapada India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:15 Nyaunggyaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:00 Puri India  0.1
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Tanbingyaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:00 Amaw Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:00 Hpanchaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:00 Gyibyin Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:00 Temauk Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 03:30 Kyunthaya Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 03:30 Auktarngdshe Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 03:30 Chauklangwe Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 03:30 Chindaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:30 Myaukpyin Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:30 Tandin Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:30 Kyaukmaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:30 Khamaungdwe Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Khindan Myanmar  0.1

Calculation folder at this link