Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-19/BULBUL-19
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MATMO-19/BULBUL-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Bangladesh, India
Exposed population 60 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 137 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.5 m (10 Nov 02:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 137 km/h 1.5 m 204 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 205 km/h 2.6 m 624 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

205 km/h

Up to 60 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Bangladesh, India58512
+
Bangladesh766 
India57746 
Tropical StormBangladesh, India99457804
+
Bangladesh51458142 
India47999662 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 104 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Laos, Vietnam
GREEN 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Nov 2019 18:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 08 Nov 2019 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 08 Nov 2019 06:00 205 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 08 Nov 2019 12:00 158 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
GREEN 17 08 Nov 2019 18:00 173 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
GREEN 18 09 Nov 2019 00:00 137 -
- - - - - Bangladesh, India
GREEN 19 09 Nov 2019 06:00 140 60 thousand
- - - - Bangladesh, India




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmBangladesh, India619967
+
India155924 
Bangladesh464043 
250-500 mmBangladesh, India25268083
+
India16771944 
Bangladesh8496139 
100-250 mmIndia, Bangladesh40959584
+
India19019061 
Bangladesh21940523 
50-100 mmIndia, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Burma24850890
+
India6568349 
Bhutan6489 
Bangladesh18261884 
Burma14168 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 221 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 284 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 393 120 thousand
- - - - Vietnam
Blue 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 238 540 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos
Blue 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 348 1.7 million
- - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 244 160 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 183 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 223 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Nov 2019 18:00 294 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 08 Nov 2019 00:00 364 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 08 Nov 2019 06:00 343 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 08 Nov 2019 12:00 209 -
- - - - - Bangladesh
Blue 17 08 Nov 2019 18:00 194 -
- - - - - Bangladesh, India
Blue 18 09 Nov 2019 00:00 150 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
Blue 19 09 Nov 2019 06:00 575 66.8 million
- - India, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Burma




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.5m in Kalipur, Bangladesh. This height is estimated for 10 Nov 2019 02:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Nov 2019 02:15 Kalipur Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 02:15 Bara Patharghata Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 02:15 Jnanpara Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 02:15 Chhota Nishanbaria Chak Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 02:15 Dhalua Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 02:15 Bara Bagi Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 02:15 Chhota Bagi Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 02:15 Mahipur Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 02:15 Chandkhali Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 02:15 Burir Char Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 02:15 Kachupatra Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 02:15 Arpangasia Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 02:15 Bara Baliatali Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 02:15 Kalapara Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Bara Pata Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Dakshin Char Fasson Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Char Pyarimohan Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Char Annadaprasad Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Chandpur Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Char Lakshmi Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Kanchanpur Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Rabipur Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Char Faizuddin Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Char Krishnaprasad Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Char Manpura Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 15:00 Bamnia Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 15:00 Charparbati Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 15:00 Munshir Hat Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 15:00 Tulatali Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 15:00 Char Fakura Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 15:00 Char Chandia Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 15:00 Bara Ahmadpur Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 15:00 Banskhali Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 15:00 Bariakhali Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 15:15 Akbar Hat Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 15:15 Dhalapara Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 15:15 Jafarnagar Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 15:15 Sandwip Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 15:30 Barabkunda Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 15:30 Bansbaria Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 14:00 Ghoshbagh Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Chandhuri Hat Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Hatia Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Khaser Hat Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Nalchira Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Ewazbalia Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 15:45 Kumira Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 13:00 Nayamasti Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Jahajmara Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Maijchara Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Sagaria Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 17:45 Char Chandra Prasad Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 17:45 Chandpur Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 17:45 Char Kali Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 17:45 Pangasia Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 17:45 Harni Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 17:45 Goal Bhaor Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 17:45 Char Medua Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 17:45 South Dighaldi Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 17:45 Kalupura Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 17:45 Char Munsi Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 17:45 Hazari Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 17:45 Hazipur Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 17:45 Jagannathpur Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 17:45 Char Lawrence Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 17:45 Char Falcon Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 19:15 Char Algi Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 19:15 Char Gazi Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 19:15 Char Ramiz Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 19:15 Char Bedama Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 17:45 Sakusia Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 17:45 Char Madhyam Lamchhidhali Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 17:45 Char Kadira Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 19:15 Dasher Hat Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 19:15 Char Ishwar Ray Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 18:45 Baga Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 18:45 Miar Hat Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Bhatiari Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Dakhin Kattali Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Dakhin Patenga Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Chittagong Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Char Lakshia Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Gahira Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Janali Hat Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Kalapul Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Khankhanabad Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Anowara Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Noapara Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Ali Akbardeil Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Dhurung Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Lemsikhali Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 08:45 Magnama Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 08:45 Napura Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 08:45 Uttar Nalbila Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 08:45 Dhalghata Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 08:45 Kalarmarchara Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 08:45 Saflapur Bangladesh  0.3
09 Nov 2019 18:30 Geonkhali India  0.3
09 Nov 2019 18:30 Nurpur India  0.3
09 Nov 2019 18:30 Diamond Harbor India  0.3
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Amavasyakhali Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 08:15 Ghatibhanga Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 08:15 Coxs Bazar Bangladesh  0.3
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Alanbya Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Kawbein Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 09:15 Satabhaya India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 10:15 Kelatali Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 10:15 Khurushkul Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 10:15 Fasiakhali Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Kakinada India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:45 Pentakota India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:45 Venkatapuram India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:45 Pata Polvaram India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Rasalpur India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Chandipur India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:15 Damathat Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 09:30 Hukitala India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:30 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:30 Zokali Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:30 Taungxun Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 07:00 Balighai India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 07:00 Konarak India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 10:00 Pechardwip Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 10:00 Jaliapalong Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 10:00 Dhoapalong Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 10:00 Inani Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 10:00 Vishakhapatnam India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 10:00 Chittivalasa India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 10:00 Bhimunipatnam India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 10:00 Konada India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 14:00 Monakhali Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 14:00 Silkhali Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 14:00 Tumbru Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 14:00 Whaikhyang Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Pudimadaka India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Chipurupalle India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:15 Baruva India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 07:15 Thawinchaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 07:15 Donbaik Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 07:15 Rathedaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 07:15 Kudaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 13:15 Chetpauk Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 09:45 Bardeil Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:30 Anauk Myinhlut Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:30 Kyaukpandu Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:30 Mahameik Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:30 Thamaseikta Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Taunggyi Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Budin Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Kadaik Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Donwun Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Dakshim Nhila Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Atikhalipara Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Teknaf Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Kyunbouk Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Sabaigon Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Ale Kalaywa Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:00 Kanyinchaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Kangyisu Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 07:30 Nuagan India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 10:30 Nuliasahi India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:00 Dakhinpara Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:00 Jaliapara Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:00 Nyaunggyaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:00 Zawmadat Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 10:15 Nuralrevu India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:15 Kyaukpyinseik Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:15 Sandawshin Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:15 Myaukpyin Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:15 Tandin Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:15 Kyaukmaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:15 Ponnagyi Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:00 Malud India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Tanbingyaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:30 Khamaungdwe Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:45 Koyyam India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:45 Dharmavaram India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 11:45 Srikurman India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 07:45 Naupada India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 07:45 Ammalapadu India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:30 Amaw Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:30 Gyibyin Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:30 Temauk Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:30 Shwehle Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 14:45 Kalingapatnam India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 13:15 Atet Kyaungdaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 07:45 Chatrapur India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 07:45 Canjam India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 07:45 Paluru India  0.1

Calculation folder at this link