Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-19/BULBUL-19
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MATMO-19/BULBUL-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Bangladesh, India
Exposed population 910 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 176 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.1 m (10 Nov 04:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 176 km/h 2.1 m 404 mm 1.5
HWRF Overall 205 km/h 2.6 m 624 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

205 km/h

Up to 910 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2India21906 
CAT. 1Bangladesh, India888478
+
Bangladesh404493 
India483985 
Tropical StormBangladesh, India102525776
+
Bangladesh59728125 
India42797651 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 104 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Laos, Vietnam
GREEN 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Nov 2019 18:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 08 Nov 2019 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 08 Nov 2019 06:00 205 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 08 Nov 2019 12:00 158 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
GREEN 17 08 Nov 2019 18:00 173 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
GREEN 18 09 Nov 2019 00:00 137 -
- - - - - Bangladesh, India
GREEN 19 09 Nov 2019 06:00 137 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
ORANGE 20 09 Nov 2019 12:00 176 910 thousand
- - - Bangladesh, India




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmBangladesh, India106499
+
India34682 
Bangladesh71817 
250-500 mmBangladesh, India9898334
+
India3555403 
Bangladesh6342931 
100-250 mmIndia, Bangladesh, Burma31098730
+
Burma13596 
India14081321 
Bangladesh17003813 
50-100 mmBurma, India, Bangladesh33269634
+
Burma101788 
India13956517 
Bangladesh19211329 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 221 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 284 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 393 120 thousand
- - - - Vietnam
Blue 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 238 540 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos
Blue 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 348 1.7 million
- - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 244 160 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 183 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 223 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Nov 2019 18:00 294 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 08 Nov 2019 00:00 364 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 08 Nov 2019 06:00 343 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 08 Nov 2019 12:00 209 -
- - - - - Bangladesh
Blue 17 08 Nov 2019 18:00 194 -
- - - - - Bangladesh, India
Blue 18 09 Nov 2019 00:00 150 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
Blue 19 09 Nov 2019 06:00 204 6.5 million
- - - - India, Bangladesh
Blue 20 09 Nov 2019 12:00 523 41.1 million
- - Burma, India, Bangladesh




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

2.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.1m in Kalipur, Bangladesh. This height is estimated for 10 Nov 2019 04:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Nov 2019 04:45 Kalipur Bangladesh  2.1
10 Nov 2019 04:45 Bara Patharghata Bangladesh  2.1
10 Nov 2019 04:45 Jnanpara Bangladesh  2.1
10 Nov 2019 04:45 Chhota Nishanbaria Chak Bangladesh  2.1
10 Nov 2019 04:45 Dhalua Bangladesh  2.1
10 Nov 2019 04:45 Bara Bagi Bangladesh  2.1
10 Nov 2019 04:45 Chhota Bagi Bangladesh  2.1
10 Nov 2019 04:45 Mahipur Bangladesh  2.1
10 Nov 2019 04:45 Chandkhali Bangladesh  2.1
10 Nov 2019 04:45 Burir Char Bangladesh  2.1
10 Nov 2019 04:45 Kachupatra Bangladesh  2.1
10 Nov 2019 04:45 Arpangasia Bangladesh  2.1
10 Nov 2019 04:45 Bara Baliatali Bangladesh  2.1
10 Nov 2019 04:45 Kalapara Bangladesh  2.1
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Bara Pata Bangladesh  1.7
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Dakshin Char Fasson Bangladesh  1.7
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Char Pyarimohan Bangladesh  1.7
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Char Annadaprasad Bangladesh  1.7
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Chandpur Bangladesh  1.7
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Char Lakshmi Bangladesh  1.7
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Kanchanpur Bangladesh  1.7
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Rabipur Bangladesh  1.7
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Char Faizuddin Bangladesh  1.7
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Char Krishnaprasad Bangladesh  1.7
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Char Manpura Bangladesh  1.7
10 Nov 2019 10:00 Chandhuri Hat Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 10:00 Hatia Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 10:00 Khaser Hat Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 10:00 Nalchira Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 10:00 Ewazbalia Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Bamnia Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Charparbati Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Munshir Hat Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Tulatali Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Char Fakura Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Char Chandia Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Bara Ahmadpur Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Banskhali Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Bariakhali Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 10:15 Ghoshbagh Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 10:15 Sandwip Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 10:15 Akbar Hat Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 10:15 Dhalapara Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 10:15 Nayamasti Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 10:00 Jafarnagar Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Barabkunda Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Bansbaria Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 10:45 Kumira Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Jahajmara Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Maijchara Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Sagaria Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 11:45 Bhatiari Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 11:45 Dakhin Kattali Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 11:45 Dakhin Patenga Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 11:45 Chittagong Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 11:45 Char Lakshia Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 11:45 Gahira Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 11:45 Janali Hat Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 11:45 Kalapul Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 11:45 Khankhanabad Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 11:45 Anowara Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 11:45 Noapara Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Char Chandra Prasad Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Chandpur Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Char Kali Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Pangasia Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Harni Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Goal Bhaor Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Char Medua Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:45 South Dighaldi Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Kalupura Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Char Munsi Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Hazari Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Hazipur Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Jagannathpur Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Char Lawrence Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Char Falcon Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 15:45 Char Algi Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 15:45 Char Gazi Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 15:45 Char Ramiz Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 15:45 Char Bedama Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 15:30 Dasher Hat Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 15:30 Char Ishwar Ray Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 17:45 Sakusia Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 17:45 Char Madhyam Lamchhidhali Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 17:45 Char Kadira Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Baga Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 17:45 Miar Hat Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Ali Akbardeil Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Dhurung Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Lemsikhali Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Magnama Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Napura Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 05:15 Uttar Nalbila Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 09:00 Dhalghata Bangladesh  0.4
09 Nov 2019 15:45 Geonkhali India  0.4
09 Nov 2019 15:45 Nurpur India  0.4
09 Nov 2019 15:45 Diamond Harbor India  0.4
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Kalarmarchara Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Saflapur Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 10:00 Barisal Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 10:00 Aicha Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 10:00 At Hazar Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 10:00 Bisarad Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 10:00 Bisarikati Charkhanda Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 10:00 Bageswari Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 10:00 Mahisha Gagaria Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 10:00 Chandkati Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 10:00 Bazemahal Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Amavasyakhali Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Ghatibhanga Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Coxs Bazar Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 04:45 Kelatali Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 04:45 Khurushkul Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 04:45 Fasiakhali Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Alanbya Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Kawbein Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Damathat Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Kakinada India  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Zokali Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Taungxun Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Monakhali Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Silkhali Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Bardeil Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Whaikhyang Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Dakshim Nhila Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Atikhalipara Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Teknaf Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Kyunbouk Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Sabaigon Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Ale Kalaywa Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Kanyinchaung Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Pechardwip Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Jaliapalong Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Dhoapalong Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Inani Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 14:00 Tumbru Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Dakhinpara Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Jaliapara Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Nyaunggyaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Zawmadat Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Taunggyi Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Budin Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Kadaik Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Donwun Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Pudimadaka India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:00 Chipurupalle India  0.1
10 Nov 2019 11:00 Thamaseikta Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 13:15 Chetpauk Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 11:00 Kangyisu Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Tanbingyaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 13:15 Anauk Myinhlut Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 13:15 Kyaukpandu Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 13:15 Thawinchaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 13:15 Atet Kyaungdaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 13:15 Donbaik Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 13:15 Rathedaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:45 Vishakhapatnam India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:45 Bhimunipatnam India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 14:45 Baruva India  0.1
10 Nov 2019 10:15 Mahameik Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:45 Kudaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 14:15 Chittivalasa India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 14:15 Konada India  0.1
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Khindan Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:45 Koyyam India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:45 Dharmavaram India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:45 Srikurman India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 12:30 Malud India  0.1

Calculation folder at this link