Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-19/BULBUL-19
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MATMO-19/BULBUL-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Bangladesh, India, Burma
Exposed population 3 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 144 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.6 m (09 Nov 23:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 144 km/h 2.6 m 256 mm 1.5
HWRF Overall 205 km/h 2.6 m 624 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

205 km/h

Up to 3 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Nov 2019 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Bangladesh, India3492
+
Bangladesh483 
India3009 
Tropical StormBangladesh, India, Burma109094039
+
Bangladesh86401181 
India22691822 
Burma1036 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 104 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Laos, Vietnam
GREEN 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Nov 2019 18:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 08 Nov 2019 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 08 Nov 2019 06:00 205 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 08 Nov 2019 12:00 158 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
GREEN 17 08 Nov 2019 18:00 173 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
GREEN 18 09 Nov 2019 00:00 137 -
- - - - - Bangladesh, India
GREEN 19 09 Nov 2019 06:00 137 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
ORANGE 20 09 Nov 2019 12:00 176 190 thousand
- - - India, Bangladesh
ORANGE 21 09 Nov 2019 18:00 144 3 thousand
- - - - Bangladesh, India, Burma




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Nov 2019 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmIndia, Bangladesh7710290
+
India2565 
Bangladesh7707725 
100-250 mmIndia, Bangladesh, Burma29713493
+
India3535455 
Bangladesh26177988 
Burma50 
50-100 mmIndia, Bangladesh, Burma40525328
+
India2611608 
Bangladesh37721363 
Burma192357 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 221 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 284 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 393 120 thousand
- - - - Vietnam
Blue 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 238 540 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos
Blue 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 348 1.7 million
- - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 244 160 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 183 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 223 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Nov 2019 18:00 294 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 08 Nov 2019 00:00 364 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 08 Nov 2019 06:00 343 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 08 Nov 2019 12:00 209 -
- - - - - Bangladesh
Blue 17 08 Nov 2019 18:00 194 -
- - - - - Bangladesh, India
Blue 18 09 Nov 2019 00:00 150 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
Blue 19 09 Nov 2019 06:00 204 6.5 million
- - - - India, Bangladesh
Blue 20 09 Nov 2019 12:00 404 7.1 million
- - - India, Bangladesh
Blue 21 09 Nov 2019 18:00 344 37.4 million
- - - India, Bangladesh, Burma




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

2.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.6m in Kalipur, Bangladesh. This height is estimated for 09 Nov 2019 23:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Nov 2019 18:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Kalipur Bangladesh  2.6
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Bara Patharghata Bangladesh  2.6
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Jnanpara Bangladesh  2.6
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Chhota Nishanbaria Chak Bangladesh  2.6
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Dhalua Bangladesh  2.6
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Bara Bagi Bangladesh  2.6
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Chhota Bagi Bangladesh  2.6
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Mahipur Bangladesh  2.6
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Chandkhali Bangladesh  2.6
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Burir Char Bangladesh  2.6
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Kachupatra Bangladesh  2.6
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Arpangasia Bangladesh  2.6
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Bara Baliatali Bangladesh  2.6
09 Nov 2019 23:45 Kalapara Bangladesh  2.6
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Bamnia Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Charparbati Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Munshir Hat Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Tulatali Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Char Fakura Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Char Chandia Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Bara Ahmadpur Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Banskhali Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Bariakhali Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Akbar Hat Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Dhalapara Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Jafarnagar Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Barabkunda Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Bansbaria Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Bara Pata Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Dakshin Char Fasson Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Char Pyarimohan Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Char Annadaprasad Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Chandpur Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Char Lakshmi Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Kanchanpur Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Rabipur Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Char Faizuddin Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Char Krishnaprasad Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Char Manpura Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Sandwip Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Ghoshbagh Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Kumira Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Hatia Bangladesh  1.8
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Khaser Hat Bangladesh  1.8
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Nalchira Bangladesh  1.8
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Ewazbalia Bangladesh  1.8
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Nayamasti Bangladesh  1.8
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Chandhuri Hat Bangladesh  1.8
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Bhatiari Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Dakhin Kattali Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Dakhin Patenga Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Chittagong Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Char Lakshia Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Gahira Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Janali Hat Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Kalapul Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Khankhanabad Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Anowara Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Noapara Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 01:00 Jahajmara Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 01:00 Maijchara Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 01:00 Sagaria Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Ali Akbardeil Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Dhurung Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Lemsikhali Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 03:30 Magnama Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 03:30 Napura Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Char Algi Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Char Gazi Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Char Ramiz Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Dasher Hat Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Char Ishwar Ray Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Char Bedama Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:30 Char Medua Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:30 South Dighaldi Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:30 Sakusia Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:30 Kalupura Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:30 Char Munsi Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:30 Hazari Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:30 Char Madhyam Lamchhidhali Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:30 Hazipur Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:30 Char Lawrence Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:30 Char Falcon Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:30 Char Kadira Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:30 Char Chandra Prasad Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:30 Chandpur Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:30 Char Kali Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:30 Pangasia Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:30 Harni Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:30 Goal Bhaor Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:30 Jagannathpur Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 13:00 Baga Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 12:45 Miar Hat Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 03:00 Uttar Nalbila Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 03:00 Dhalghata Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Kalarmarchara Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Saflapur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Amavasyakhali Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Ghatibhanga Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Coxs Bazar Bangladesh  0.5
09 Nov 2019 18:00 Geonkhali India  0.4
09 Nov 2019 18:00 Nurpur India  0.4
09 Nov 2019 18:00 Diamond Harbor India  0.4
10 Nov 2019 02:00 Kelatali Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 02:00 Khurushkul Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 02:00 Fasiakhali Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Barisal Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Aicha Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 04:00 At Hazar Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Bisarad Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Bisarikati Charkhanda Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Bageswari Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Mahisha Gagaria Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Chandkati Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Bazemahal Bangladesh  0.3
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Monakhali Bangladesh  0.3
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Silkhali Bangladesh  0.3
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Bardeil Bangladesh  0.3
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Whaikhyang Bangladesh  0.3
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Dakshim Nhila Bangladesh  0.3
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Atikhalipara Bangladesh  0.3
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Teknaf Bangladesh  0.3
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Kyunbouk Myanmar  0.3
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Sabaigon Myanmar  0.3
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Ale Kalaywa Myanmar  0.3
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Kanyinchaung Myanmar  0.3
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Pechardwip Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Jaliapalong Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Dhoapalong Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Inani Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Alanbya Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Kawbein Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Tumbru Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Damathat Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:15 Nyaunggyaung Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 02:00 Dakhinpara Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 02:00 Jaliapara Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 02:00 Zawmadat Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Zokali Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Taungxun Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 20:45 Anauk Myinhlut Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 20:45 Kyaukpandu Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 20:45 Thawinchaung Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 20:45 Atet Kyaungdaung Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 20:45 Donbaik Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 20:45 Rathedaung Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Taunggyi Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Budin Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Kadaik Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Donwun Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Sibsa Point Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 11:00 Thamaseikta Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Kangyisu Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 20:45 Kudaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 19:15 Kakinada India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Rasalpur India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Chandipur India  0.1
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Tanbingyaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Khindan Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Mahameik Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Vishakhapatnam India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Chittivalasa India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Bhimunipatnam India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 21:00 Konada India  0.1
10 Nov 2019 13:00 Chetpauk Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 04:30 Kaungma Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 04:30 Htawa Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 04:30 Zadi Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Darein Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Paung Myanmar  0.1

Calculation folder at this link