Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-19/BULBUL-19
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MATMO-19/BULBUL-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Bangladesh, India
Exposed population 220 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 137 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.6 m (10 Nov 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 137 km/h 2.6 m 283 mm 1.5
HWRF Overall 205 km/h 2.6 m 624 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

205 km/h

Up to 220 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Bangladesh215487 
Tropical StormBangladesh, India68313061
+
Bangladesh65829427 
India2483634 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 104 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Laos, Vietnam
GREEN 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Nov 2019 18:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 08 Nov 2019 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 08 Nov 2019 06:00 205 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 08 Nov 2019 12:00 158 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
GREEN 17 08 Nov 2019 18:00 173 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
GREEN 18 09 Nov 2019 00:00 137 -
- - - - - Bangladesh, India
GREEN 19 09 Nov 2019 06:00 137 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
ORANGE 20 09 Nov 2019 12:00 176 190 thousand
- - - India, Bangladesh
ORANGE 21 09 Nov 2019 18:00 144 2 thousand
- - - - Bangladesh, India
ORANGE 22 10 Nov 2019 00:00 137 220 thousand
- - - - Bangladesh, India




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmIndia, Bangladesh5396826
+
India31940 
Bangladesh5364886 
100-250 mmIndia, Bangladesh, Burma13965268
+
India1127279 
Bangladesh12837839 
Burma150 
50-100 mmIndia, Bangladesh, Burma20075116
+
India906433 
Bangladesh18943324 
Burma225359 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 221 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 284 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 393 120 thousand
- - - - Vietnam
Blue 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 238 540 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos
Blue 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 348 1.7 million
- - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 244 160 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 183 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 223 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Nov 2019 18:00 294 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 08 Nov 2019 00:00 364 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 08 Nov 2019 06:00 343 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 08 Nov 2019 12:00 209 -
- - - - - Bangladesh
Blue 17 08 Nov 2019 18:00 194 -
- - - - - Bangladesh, India
Blue 18 09 Nov 2019 00:00 150 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
Blue 19 09 Nov 2019 06:00 204 6.5 million
- - - - India, Bangladesh
Blue 20 09 Nov 2019 12:00 404 7.1 million
- - - India, Bangladesh
Blue 21 09 Nov 2019 18:00 256 7.8 million
- - - Bangladesh, India
Blue 22 10 Nov 2019 00:00 409 19.4 million
- - - India, Bangladesh, Burma




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

2.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.6m in Kalipur, Bangladesh. This height is estimated for 10 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Kalipur Bangladesh  2.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Bara Patharghata Bangladesh  2.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Jnanpara Bangladesh  2.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Chhota Nishanbaria Chak Bangladesh  2.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Dhalua Bangladesh  2.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Bara Bagi Bangladesh  2.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Chhota Bagi Bangladesh  2.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Mahipur Bangladesh  2.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Chandkhali Bangladesh  2.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Burir Char Bangladesh  2.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Kachupatra Bangladesh  2.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Arpangasia Bangladesh  2.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Bara Baliatali Bangladesh  2.6
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Kalapara Bangladesh  2.6
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Bara Pata Bangladesh  2.5
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Dakshin Char Fasson Bangladesh  2.5
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Char Pyarimohan Bangladesh  2.5
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Char Annadaprasad Bangladesh  2.5
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Chandpur Bangladesh  2.5
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Char Lakshmi Bangladesh  2.5
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Kanchanpur Bangladesh  2.5
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Rabipur Bangladesh  2.5
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Char Faizuddin Bangladesh  2.5
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Char Krishnaprasad Bangladesh  2.5
10 Nov 2019 05:00 Char Manpura Bangladesh  2.5
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Bamnia Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Charparbati Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Munshir Hat Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Tulatali Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Char Fakura Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Char Chandia Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Bara Ahmadpur Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Banskhali Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Bariakhali Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Akbar Hat Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Dhalapara Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Chandhuri Hat Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Hatia Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Khaser Hat Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Nalchira Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Ewazbalia Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Jafarnagar Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Sandwip Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Ghoshbagh Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Nayamasti Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Barabkunda Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Bansbaria Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Kumira Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Jahajmara Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Maijchara Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Sagaria Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Bhatiari Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Dakhin Kattali Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Dakhin Patenga Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Chittagong Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Char Lakshia Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Gahira Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Janali Hat Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Kalapul Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Khankhanabad Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Anowara Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 05:30 Noapara Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Char Chandra Prasad Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Chandpur Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Char Kali Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Pangasia Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Harni Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Goal Bhaor Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Char Medua Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 04:15 South Dighaldi Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Kalupura Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Char Munsi Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Hazari Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Hazipur Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Jagannathpur Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Char Lawrence Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Char Falcon Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Sakusia Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Char Madhyam Lamchhidhali Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Char Kadira Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Char Algi Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 03:00 Ali Akbardeil Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 03:00 Dhurung Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 03:00 Lemsikhali Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 03:30 Magnama Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 03:30 Napura Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Uttar Nalbila Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Dhalghata Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Baga Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Kalarmarchara Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Saflapur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Char Gazi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Char Ramiz Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Char Bedama Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 04:45 Miar Hat Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 02:15 Amavasyakhali Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Dasher Hat Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Char Ishwar Ray Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 02:15 Ghatibhanga Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 02:15 Coxs Bazar Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Barisal Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Aicha Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 04:15 At Hazar Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Bisarad Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Bisarikati Charkhanda Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Bageswari Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Mahisha Gagaria Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Chandkati Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 04:15 Bazemahal Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 02:00 Kelatali Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 02:00 Khurushkul Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 02:00 Fasiakhali Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 01:45 Pechardwip Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 01:45 Jaliapalong Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 01:45 Dhoapalong Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 01:45 Inani Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Monakhali Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Silkhali Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 01:15 Tumbru Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 01:15 Whaikhyang Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 01:45 Bardeil Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 01:45 Atikhalipara Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 01:45 Teknaf Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 01:45 Dakhinpara Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 01:45 Ale Kalaywa Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 01:45 Kanyinchaung Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 01:45 Jaliapara Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 01:45 Nyaunggyaung Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 01:45 Zawmadat Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 03:30 Dakshim Nhila Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 03:30 Kyunbouk Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 03:30 Sabaigon Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 02:15 Geonkhali India  0.2
10 Nov 2019 02:15 Nurpur India  0.2
10 Nov 2019 02:15 Diamond Harbor India  0.2
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Kakinada India  0.1
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Anauk Myinhlut Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Kyaukpandu Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Thawinchaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Atet Kyaungdaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Donbaik Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Rathedaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Bholaisingherchar Trailokya Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Dasmina Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Baharampur Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Kalaia Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 04:30 Kaungma Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 04:30 Htawa Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 04:30 Zadi Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Alanbya Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Kawbein Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Bhimunipatnam India  0.1
10 Nov 2019 01:30 Konada India  0.1
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Damathat Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Vishakhapatnam India  0.1
10 Nov 2019 00:00 Chittivalasa India  0.1

Calculation folder at this link