Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-19/BULBUL-19
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MATMO-19/BULBUL-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries India, Bangladesh
Exposed population 460 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 126 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.5 m (10 Nov 06:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 126 km/h 2.5 m 171 mm 1.5
HWRF Overall 205 km/h 2.6 m 624 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

205 km/h

Up to 460 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Bangladesh463335 
Tropical StormIndia, Bangladesh34536007
+
India1614487 
Bangladesh32921520 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 104 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Laos, Vietnam
GREEN 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Nov 2019 18:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 08 Nov 2019 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 08 Nov 2019 06:00 205 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 08 Nov 2019 12:00 158 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
GREEN 17 08 Nov 2019 18:00 173 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
GREEN 18 09 Nov 2019 00:00 137 -
- - - - - Bangladesh, India
GREEN 19 09 Nov 2019 06:00 137 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
ORANGE 20 09 Nov 2019 12:00 176 190 thousand
- - - India, Bangladesh
ORANGE 21 09 Nov 2019 18:00 144 2 thousand
- - - - Bangladesh, India
ORANGE 22 10 Nov 2019 00:00 137 170 thousand
- - - - Bangladesh, India
ORANGE 23 10 Nov 2019 06:00 126 460 thousand
- - - - India, Bangladesh




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmIndia68 
100-250 mmIndia, Bangladesh, Burma9644531
+
Bangladesh9118860 
India480753 
Burma44918 
50-100 mmBangladesh, India, Burma9477155
+
Bangladesh8911622 
India442816 
Burma122717 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 221 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 284 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 393 120 thousand
- - - - Vietnam
Blue 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 238 540 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos
Blue 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 348 1.7 million
- - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 244 160 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 183 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 223 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Nov 2019 18:00 294 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 08 Nov 2019 00:00 364 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 08 Nov 2019 06:00 343 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 08 Nov 2019 12:00 209 -
- - - - - Bangladesh
Blue 17 08 Nov 2019 18:00 194 -
- - - - - Bangladesh, India
Blue 18 09 Nov 2019 00:00 150 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
Blue 19 09 Nov 2019 06:00 204 6.5 million
- - - - India, Bangladesh
Blue 20 09 Nov 2019 12:00 404 7.1 million
- - - India, Bangladesh
Blue 21 09 Nov 2019 18:00 256 7.8 million
- - - Bangladesh, India
Blue 22 10 Nov 2019 00:00 283 8.9 million
- - - Bangladesh
Blue 23 10 Nov 2019 06:00 252 9.6 million
- - - Bangladesh, India, Burma




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

2.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.5m in Bara Pata, Bangladesh. This height is estimated for 10 Nov 2019 06:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Bara Pata Bangladesh  2.5
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Dakshin Char Fasson Bangladesh  2.5
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Char Pyarimohan Bangladesh  2.5
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Char Annadaprasad Bangladesh  2.5
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Chandpur Bangladesh  2.5
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Char Lakshmi Bangladesh  2.5
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Kanchanpur Bangladesh  2.5
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Rabipur Bangladesh  2.5
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Char Faizuddin Bangladesh  2.5
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Char Krishnaprasad Bangladesh  2.5
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Char Manpura Bangladesh  2.5
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Chandhuri Hat Bangladesh  2.1
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Hatia Bangladesh  2.1
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Khaser Hat Bangladesh  2.1
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Nalchira Bangladesh  2.1
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Ewazbalia Bangladesh  2.1
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Bamnia Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Charparbati Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Munshir Hat Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Tulatali Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Char Fakura Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Char Chandia Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Bara Ahmadpur Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Banskhali Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Bariakhali Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Sandwip Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Akbar Hat Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Nayamasti Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Dhalapara Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Ghoshbagh Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Jafarnagar Bangladesh  2.0
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Barabkunda Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Bansbaria Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Kumira Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Kalipur Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Bara Patharghata Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Jnanpara Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Chhota Nishanbaria Chak Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Dhalua Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Bara Bagi Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Chhota Bagi Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Mahipur Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Chandkhali Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Burir Char Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Kachupatra Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Arpangasia Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Bara Baliatali Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Kalapara Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Jahajmara Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Maijchara Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Sagaria Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Bhatiari Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Dakhin Kattali Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Dakhin Patenga Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Chittagong Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Char Lakshia Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Gahira Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Janali Hat Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Kalapul Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Khankhanabad Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Anowara Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 06:00 Noapara Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Char Algi Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Char Gazi Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Char Ramiz Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Dasher Hat Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Char Ishwar Ray Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Char Bedama Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 09:00 Char Chandra Prasad Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 09:00 Chandpur Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 09:00 Char Kali Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 09:00 Pangasia Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 09:00 Harni Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 09:00 Goal Bhaor Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 09:00 Char Medua Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 09:00 South Dighaldi Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 09:00 Kalupura Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 09:00 Char Munsi Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 09:00 Hazari Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 09:00 Hazipur Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 09:00 Jagannathpur Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 09:00 Char Lawrence Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 09:00 Char Falcon Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Sakusia Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Char Madhyam Lamchhidhali Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Char Kadira Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 09:30 Baga Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 09:30 Miar Hat Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Ali Akbardeil Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Dhurung Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Lemsikhali Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 08:15 Magnama Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 08:15 Napura Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Uttar Nalbila Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 08:45 Dhalghata Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Kalarmarchara Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Saflapur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Amavasyakhali Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 08:15 Ghatibhanga Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 08:15 Coxs Bazar Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Barisal Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Aicha Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 06:45 At Hazar Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Bisarad Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Bisarikati Charkhanda Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Bageswari Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Mahisha Gagaria Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Chandkati Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Bazemahal Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Kelatali Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Khurushkul Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Fasiakhali Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Alanbya Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Kawbein Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 08:15 Pechardwip Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 08:15 Jaliapalong Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 08:15 Dhoapalong Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 08:15 Inani Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 10:15 Monakhali Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 10:15 Silkhali Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 10:15 Bardeil Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 10:15 Whaikhyang Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 10:15 Dakshim Nhila Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 10:15 Atikhalipara Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 10:15 Teknaf Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 10:15 Kyunbouk Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 10:15 Sabaigon Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 10:15 Ale Kalaywa Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 10:15 Kanyinchaung Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Damathat Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Zokali Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Taungxun Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 07:15 Tumbru Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 09:30 Nyaunggyaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Bholaisingherchar Trailokya Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Dasmina Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Baharampur Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 06:15 Kalaia Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Anauk Myinhlut Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Kyaukpandu Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Thawinchaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Atet Kyaungdaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Donbaik Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Rathedaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 09:30 Kakinada India  0.1
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Taunggyi Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Budin Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Kadaik Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Donwun Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 11:45 Dakhinpara Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 11:45 Jaliapara Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 11:45 Zawmadat Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 11:00 Thamaseikta Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 11:00 Kangyisu Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 07:30 Kudaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Tanbingyaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Vishakhapatnam India  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Chittivalasa India  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Bhimunipatnam India  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Konada India  0.1
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Kyaukpyinseik Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Sandawshin Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Myaukpyin Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Tandin Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Kyaukmaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Ponnagyi Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Khindan Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Gwedaukchaung Myanmar  0.1

Calculation folder at this link