Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-19/BULBUL-19
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MATMO-19/BULBUL-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries India, Bangladesh
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 79 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (06 Nov 10:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 79 km/h 0.2 m 183 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 205 km/h 2.6 m 624 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

205 km/h

Up to 520 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormIndia, Bangladesh516549
+
India516453 
Bangladesh96 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 104 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Laos, Vietnam
GREEN 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 184 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmBangladesh, India2938
+
India2903 
Bangladesh35 
50-100 mmIndia, Bangladesh1243217
+
India1237538 
Bangladesh5679 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 221 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 284 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 393 120 thousand
- - - - Vietnam
Blue 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 238 540 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos
Blue 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 348 1.7 million
- - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 244 160 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 820 3 thousand
- - - - India, Bangladesh




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Karen, India. This height is estimated for 06 Nov 2019 10:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Nov 2019 10:15 Karen India  0.2
06 Nov 2019 10:30 Nuralrevu India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 10:30 Gopalpur India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 08:00 Ilichar India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 10:00 Thetkethaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 10:00 Saluzeik Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 10:00 Thingangyi Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 10:00 Okkan Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 10:45 Kadonkani Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 10:45 Yegyawgyi Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 10:45 Ama Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 10:00 Pyinkayaing Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 10:00 Wagon Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 10:00 Ledaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 10:00 Chaunggwa Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 10:00 Magyigyaing Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Alanbya Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Kawbein Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Zokali Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Taungxun Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Taunggyi Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Budin Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Kadaik Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Donwun Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Damathat Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Kangyisu Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Thamaseikta Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 10:30 Chatrapur India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Shangyaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Mahameik Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Tanbingyaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Khindan Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 08:30 Satthwa Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 08:30 Gwa Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 10:30 Bhimunipatnam India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 10:30 Konada India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 11:15 Pyapon Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 11:15 Apaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 11:15 Akechaungwa Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 11:15 Ase Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Darein Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Paung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Tawgyaik Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:00 Ale-ywa Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 10:30 Koyyam India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 10:30 Dharmavaram India  0.1

Calculation folder at this link