Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-19/BULBUL-19
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MATMO-19/BULBUL-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Bangladesh, India
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 79 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (06 Nov 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 79 km/h 0.3 m 211 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 205 km/h 2.6 m 624 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

205 km/h

Up to 880 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormBangladesh, India875700
+
Bangladesh2511 
India873189 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 104 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Laos, Vietnam
GREEN 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 158 -
- - - - - Bangladesh, India




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmIndia1245 
100-250 mmIndia, Bangladesh94162
+
India93599 
Bangladesh563 
50-100 mmIndia, Bangladesh304439
+
India301462 
Bangladesh2977 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 221 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 284 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 393 120 thousand
- - - - Vietnam
Blue 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 238 540 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos
Blue 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 348 1.7 million
- - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 244 160 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 183 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 552 100 thousand
- - - India, Bangladesh




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Kakinada, India. This height is estimated for 06 Nov 2019 14:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Nov 2019 14:00 Kakinada India  0.3
06 Nov 2019 12:15 Karen India  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:00 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:00 Alanbya Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:00 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:00 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:00 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:00 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:00 Kawbein Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 16:00 Zokali Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 16:00 Taunggyi Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 16:00 Budin Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 16:00 Kadaik Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 16:00 Donwun Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:15 Mahameik Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:15 Thamaseikta Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:30 Damathat Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:45 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:45 Taungxun Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 16:00 Kangyisu Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:00 Shangyaung Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:30 Tanbingyaung Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:15 Khindan Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:15 Darein Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:15 Paung Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:15 Munaing Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:15 Tagukana Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:15 Kawpamagon Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 12:45 Vishakhapatnam India  0.2
06 Nov 2019 12:45 Chittivalasa India  0.2
06 Nov 2019 12:45 Bhimunipatnam India  0.2
06 Nov 2019 12:45 Konada India  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:00 Ilichar India  0.2
06 Nov 2019 16:45 Akechaungwa Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 16:45 Ase Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 16:45 Tawgyaik Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 16:45 Ale-ywa Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 14:30 Kwanhla Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 14:15 Kyaikkami Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 17:15 Pyapon Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 17:15 Apaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:45 Koyyam India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:45 Dharmavaram India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 13:15 Amaw Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 13:15 Hpanchaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 13:15 Gyibyin Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 13:15 Temauk Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 14:15 Kayindaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 18:00 Kadonkani Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 18:00 Yegyawgyi Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 18:00 Ama Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 15:30 Saluzeik Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 15:30 Thingangyi Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 15:30 Seikkyi Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 15:30 Thingangon Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 15:30 Kyauktazi Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 13:15 Shwehle Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 13:30 Wagaru Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 13:30 Wegalaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 13:30 Karokpi Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:45 Naupada India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:45 Ammalapadu India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 17:00 Zibyugyaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 17:00 Pyinkayaing Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 17:00 Wagon Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 17:00 Ledaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 17:00 Chaunggwa Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 17:00 Magyigyaing Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 17:00 Thetkethaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 18:00 Dawnvein Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 17:30 Okkan Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 13:00 Srikurman India  0.1

Calculation folder at this link