Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-19/BULBUL-19
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MATMO-19/BULBUL-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Bangladesh, India
Exposed population 20 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 72 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (06 Nov 19:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 72 km/h 0.2 m 223 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 205 km/h 2.6 m 624 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

205 km/h

Up to 60.9 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Nov 2019 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2Bangladesh, India517
+
Bangladesh57 
India460 
CAT. 1Bangladesh, India16437
+
Bangladesh3743 
India12694 
Tropical StormBangladesh, India60881915
+
Bangladesh52740618 
India8141297 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 104 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Laos, Vietnam
GREEN 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 212 20 thousand
- - - Bangladesh, India




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Nov 2019 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmIndia1260 
250-500 mmBangladesh, India9426400
+
Bangladesh9421193 
India5207 
100-250 mmBangladesh, India47122430
+
Bangladesh47006162 
India116268 
50-100 mmBangladesh, India32217268
+
Bangladesh28939888 
India3277380 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 221 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 284 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 393 120 thousand
- - - - Vietnam
Blue 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 238 540 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos
Blue 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 348 1.7 million
- - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 244 160 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 183 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 695 56.6 million
- - Bangladesh, India




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Karen, India. This height is estimated for 06 Nov 2019 19:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Nov 2019 18:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Nov 2019 19:30 Karen India  0.2
06 Nov 2019 23:45 Pyapon Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 23:45 Apaung Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 23:45 Akechaungwa Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 23:45 Ase Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 23:45 Tawgyaik Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 00:00 Ale-ywa Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 22:45 Kadonkani Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 22:45 Yegyawgyi Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 22:45 Ama Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 23:00 Dawnvein Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 18:00 Shangyaung Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 18:00 Mahameik Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 23:00 Saluzeik Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 23:00 Thingangyi Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 23:00 Seikkyi Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 23:00 Thingangon Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 23:00 Kyauktazi Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 19:30 Ilichar India  0.2
06 Nov 2019 22:30 Alandaing Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 22:30 Hseikma Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 21:30 Vishakhapatnam India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 21:30 Chittivalasa India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 21:30 Bhimunipatnam India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 21:30 Konada India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 21:00 Kakinada India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 22:30 Pyinkayaing Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 22:30 Wagon Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 22:30 Ledaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 22:30 Chaunggwa Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 22:30 Magyigyaing Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 22:30 Thetkethaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 22:30 Okkan Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 18:00 Thamaseikta Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 00:00 Zibyugyaung Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 00:00 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 00:00 Alanbya Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 00:00 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 00:00 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 00:00 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 00:00 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 00:00 Kawbein Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 19:45 Arainj-laka-punga India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 19:45 Kartara India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 18:00 Damathat Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 18:00 Budin Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 18:00 Kangyisu Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 18:00 Kadaik Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 18:00 Taunggyi Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 18:00 Zokali Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 18:00 Donwun Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 18:00 Tanbingyaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 18:00 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 18:00 Taungxun Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 18:00 Khindan Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 18:00 Darein Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 18:00 Paung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 22:45 Rongat India  0.1

Calculation folder at this link