Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-19/BULBUL-19
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MATMO-19/BULBUL-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Bangladesh, India
Exposed population 2 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 133 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (07 Nov 18:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 133 km/h 0.2 m 294 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 205 km/h 2.6 m 624 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

205 km/h

Up to 2 million in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Nov 2019 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 3India42332 
CAT. 2India254847 
CAT. 1India1734479 
Tropical StormBangladesh, India78407129
+
Bangladesh38110350 
India40296779 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 104 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Laos, Vietnam
GREEN 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Nov 2019 18:00 198 2 million
- - Bangladesh, India




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Nov 2019 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmIndia422759 
250-500 mmIndia, Bangladesh10982842
+
India4481092 
Bangladesh6501750 
100-250 mmIndia, Bangladesh54975850
+
India19661272 
Bangladesh35314578 
50-100 mmBhutan, India, Bangladesh, Burma71308486
+
Bhutan271 
India24785215 
Bangladesh46522999 
Burma1 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 221 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 284 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 393 120 thousand
- - - - Vietnam
Blue 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 238 540 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos
Blue 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 348 1.7 million
- - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 244 160 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 183 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 223 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Nov 2019 18:00 702 66.4 million
- - Bhutan, India, Bangladesh, Burma




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Karen, India. This height is estimated for 07 Nov 2019 18:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Nov 2019 18:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
07 Nov 2019 18:30 Karen India  0.2
07 Nov 2019 21:00 Ilichar India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:00 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:00 Alanbya Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:00 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:00 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:00 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:00 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:00 Kawbein Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 22:30 Akechaungwa Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 22:30 Ase Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 22:30 Tawgyaik Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 22:30 Ale-ywa Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:15 Damathat Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 23:30 Pyapon Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 23:30 Apaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 00:00 Chandhuri Hat Bangladesh  0.1
08 Nov 2019 00:00 Hatia Bangladesh  0.1
08 Nov 2019 00:00 Khaser Hat Bangladesh  0.1
08 Nov 2019 00:00 Nalchira Bangladesh  0.1
08 Nov 2019 00:00 Ewazbalia Bangladesh  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:00 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:00 Zokali Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:00 Taungxun Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 19:00 Mahameik Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 19:00 Thamaseikta Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 19:00 Shangyaung Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 20:45 Konada India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 20:45 Koyyam India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 20:45 Dharmavaram India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:00 Taunggyi Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:00 Budin Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:00 Kadaik Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:00 Donwun Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:00 Kangyisu Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 21:45 Kadonkani Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 21:45 Yegyawgyi Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 21:45 Ama Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 22:00 Kakinada India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 23:45 Munshir Hat Bangladesh  0.1
07 Nov 2019 23:45 Sandwip Bangladesh  0.1
07 Nov 2019 23:45 Akbar Hat Bangladesh  0.1
07 Nov 2019 23:45 Nayamasti Bangladesh  0.1
07 Nov 2019 20:45 Zibyugyaung Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 20:45 Pyinkayaing Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 20:45 Wagon Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 20:45 Ledaung Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 20:45 Chaunggwa Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 20:45 Magyigyaing Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 20:45 Thetkethaung Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:30 Srikurman India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:00 Tanbingyaung Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 23:00 Bhimunipatnam India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:15 Khindan Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 20:45 Naupada India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 20:45 Ammalapadu India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:30 Darein Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:30 Munaing Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:30 Tagukana Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:30 Kawpamagon Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 18:30 Paung Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 23:15 Vishakhapatnam India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 23:15 Chittivalasa India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 20:30 Saluzeik Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 20:30 Thingangyi Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 20:30 Okkan Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 23:00 Bamnia Bangladesh  0.1
07 Nov 2019 23:00 Charparbati Bangladesh  0.1
07 Nov 2019 23:00 Tulatali Bangladesh  0.1
07 Nov 2019 23:00 Char Fakura Bangladesh  0.1
07 Nov 2019 23:00 Char Chandia Bangladesh  0.1
07 Nov 2019 23:00 Bara Ahmadpur Bangladesh  0.1
07 Nov 2019 23:00 Banskhali Bangladesh  0.1
07 Nov 2019 23:00 Bariakhali Bangladesh  0.1

Calculation folder at this link