Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-19/BULBUL-19
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MATMO-19/BULBUL-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Bangladesh, India
Exposed population 1.3 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 158 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.4 m (10 Nov 02:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 158 km/h 1.4 m 364 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 205 km/h 2.6 m 624 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

205 km/h

Up to 1.3 million in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 3India287 
CAT. 2India55374 
CAT. 1Bangladesh, India1271253
+
Bangladesh242271 
India1028982 
Tropical StormBangladesh, India109580862
+
Bangladesh62988334 
India46592528 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 104 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Laos, Vietnam
GREEN 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Nov 2019 18:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 08 Nov 2019 00:00 209 1.3 million
- - Bangladesh, India




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmIndia365879 
250-500 mmBangladesh, India19411570
+
India7732286 
Bangladesh11679284 
100-250 mmBurma, India, Bangladesh88976565
+
India38663155 
Burma100 
Bangladesh50313310 
50-100 mmIndia, Bhutan, Burma, Bangladesh49098721
+
India11660821 
Bhutan1261 
Burma172640 
Bangladesh37263999 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 221 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 284 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 393 120 thousand
- - - - Vietnam
Blue 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 238 540 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos
Blue 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 348 1.7 million
- - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 244 160 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 183 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 223 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Nov 2019 18:00 294 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 08 Nov 2019 00:00 589 108.8 million
- - India, Bhutan, Burma, Bangladesh




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.4m in Bamnia, Bangladesh. This height is estimated for 10 Nov 2019 02:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Bamnia Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Charparbati Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Munshir Hat Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Tulatali Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Char Fakura Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Char Chandia Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Bara Ahmadpur Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Banskhali Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Bariakhali Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Akbar Hat Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Dhalapara Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Jafarnagar Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Barabkunda Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 02:30 Bansbaria Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 02:00 Ghoshbagh Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 02:00 Sandwip Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 00:45 Chandhuri Hat Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 00:45 Hatia Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 00:45 Khaser Hat Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 00:45 Nalchira Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 00:45 Ewazbalia Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 01:00 Nayamasti Bangladesh  1.3
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Kumira Bangladesh  1.3
09 Nov 2019 23:00 Bara Pata Bangladesh  1.3
09 Nov 2019 23:00 Dakshin Char Fasson Bangladesh  1.3
09 Nov 2019 23:00 Char Pyarimohan Bangladesh  1.3
09 Nov 2019 23:00 Char Annadaprasad Bangladesh  1.3
09 Nov 2019 23:00 Chandpur Bangladesh  1.3
09 Nov 2019 23:00 Char Lakshmi Bangladesh  1.3
09 Nov 2019 23:00 Kanchanpur Bangladesh  1.3
09 Nov 2019 23:00 Rabipur Bangladesh  1.3
09 Nov 2019 23:00 Char Faizuddin Bangladesh  1.3
09 Nov 2019 23:00 Char Krishnaprasad Bangladesh  1.3
09 Nov 2019 23:00 Char Manpura Bangladesh  1.3
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Kalipur Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Bara Patharghata Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Jnanpara Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Chhota Nishanbaria Chak Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Dhalua Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Bara Bagi Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Chhota Bagi Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Mahipur Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Chandkhali Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Burir Char Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Kachupatra Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Arpangasia Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Bara Baliatali Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 19:00 Kalapara Bangladesh  1.2
09 Nov 2019 23:00 Jahajmara Bangladesh  0.9
09 Nov 2019 23:00 Maijchara Bangladesh  0.9
09 Nov 2019 23:00 Sagaria Bangladesh  0.9
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Bhatiari Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Dakhin Kattali Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Dakhin Patenga Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Chittagong Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Char Lakshia Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Gahira Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Janali Hat Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Kalapul Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Khankhanabad Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Anowara Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 02:45 Noapara Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Char Chandra Prasad Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Chandpur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Char Kali Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Pangasia Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Harni Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Goal Bhaor Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Char Medua Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 South Dighaldi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Kalupura Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Char Munsi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Hazari Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Hazipur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Jagannathpur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Char Lawrence Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Char Falcon Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 10:45 Char Algi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 10:45 Char Gazi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 10:45 Char Ramiz Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 10:45 Dasher Hat Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 10:45 Char Ishwar Ray Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:45 Sakusia Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:45 Char Madhyam Lamchhidhali Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:45 Char Kadira Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 10:45 Char Bedama Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Baga Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 11:45 Miar Hat Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 03:45 Ali Akbardeil Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 03:45 Dhurung Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 03:45 Lemsikhali Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Magnama Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 04:00 Napura Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 03:45 Uttar Nalbila Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 03:30 Dhalghata Bangladesh  0.4
09 Nov 2019 02:45 Rasalpur India  0.4
09 Nov 2019 02:45 Chandipur India  0.4
10 Nov 2019 03:45 Kalarmarchara Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 03:45 Saflapur Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 03:30 Amavasyakhali Bangladesh  0.4
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Ghatibhanga Bangladesh  0.3
09 Nov 2019 22:30 Coxs Bazar Bangladesh  0.3
09 Nov 2019 15:15 Geonkhali India  0.3
09 Nov 2019 15:15 Nurpur India  0.3
09 Nov 2019 15:15 Diamond Harbor India  0.3
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Hukitala India  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Kelatali Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Khurushkul Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Fasiakhali Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Satabhaya India  0.2
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Alanbya Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Kawbein Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 19:30 Pyapon Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 19:30 Apaung Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 19:30 Akechaungwa Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 19:30 Ase Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 19:30 Tawgyaik Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Damathat Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 19:00 Ale-ywa Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 08:15 Chetpauk Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Zokali Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 10:30 Taungxun Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 21:30 Pechardwip Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 21:30 Jaliapalong Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 21:30 Dhoapalong Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 21:30 Inani Bangladesh  0.2
08 Nov 2019 03:30 Konada India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 03:30 Koyyam India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 03:30 Dharmavaram India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:15 Thamaseikta Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Taunggyi Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Budin Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Kadaik Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Donwun Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Barisal Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Aicha Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 At Hazar Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Bisarad Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Bisarikati Charkhanda Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Bageswari Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Mahisha Gagaria Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Chandkati Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 22:00 Bazemahal Bangladesh  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Kangyisu Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 21:30 Monakhali Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 21:30 Silkhali Bangladesh  0.2
08 Nov 2019 15:15 Mahameik Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Tumbru Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Whaikhyang Bangladesh  0.2
08 Nov 2019 01:30 Karen India  0.2
08 Nov 2019 14:45 Tanbingyaung Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 19:45 Dawnvein Myanmar  0.2
08 Nov 2019 14:45 Khindan Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 21:30 Bardeil Bangladesh  0.1
08 Nov 2019 15:45 Nuliasahi India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 15:45 Nuagan India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Atikhalipara Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Teknaf Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Dakhinpara Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Ale Kalaywa Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Kanyinchaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Jaliapara Bangladesh  0.1
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Nyaunggyaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 21:45 Zawmadat Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 04:45 Dakshim Nhila Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 04:45 Kyunbouk Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 04:45 Sabaigon Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Shangyaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 03:15 Srikurman India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 20:15 Kadonkani Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 20:15 Yegyawgyi Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 20:15 Ama Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 09:45 Bhimunipatnam India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 20:15 Alandaing Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 20:15 Hseikma Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:45 Darein Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 14:45 Paung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 03:30 Nuralrevu India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 03:30 Gopalpur India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 08:30 Kakinada India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 01:15 Chatrapur India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 01:15 Canjam India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 01:15 Paluru India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 01:15 Kalingapatnam India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 01:15 Naupada India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 03:30 Baruva India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 23:30 Konarak India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 01:15 Malud India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 21:15 Anauk Myinhlut Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 21:15 Kyaukpandu Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 21:15 Thawinchaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 21:15 Atet Kyaungdaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 21:15 Donbaik Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 21:15 Rathedaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 07:15 Chittivalasa India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 01:30 Panasapada India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 12:30 Pentakota India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:00 Myaukpyin Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:00 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:00 Kyaukmaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:00 Ponnagyi Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 08:00 Gwedaukchaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 20:30 Kudaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 21:00 Saluzeik Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 21:00 Thingangyi Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 21:00 Seikkyi Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 21:00 Thingangon Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 21:00 Kyauktazi Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 06:00 Ilichar India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 23:45 Balighai India  0.1

Calculation folder at this link