Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-19/BULBUL-19
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MATMO-19/BULBUL-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Bangladesh, India
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.9 m (10 Nov 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 83 km/h 1.9 m 111 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 205 km/h 2.6 m 624 mm 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

205 km/h

Up to 9.2 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormBangladesh, India9209509
+
Bangladesh8368945 
India840564 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 104 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
GREEN 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Laos, Vietnam
GREEN 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Nov 2019 18:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 08 Nov 2019 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 08 Nov 2019 06:00 205 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 08 Nov 2019 12:00 158 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
GREEN 17 08 Nov 2019 18:00 173 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
GREEN 18 09 Nov 2019 00:00 137 -
- - - - - Bangladesh, India
GREEN 19 09 Nov 2019 06:00 137 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
ORANGE 20 09 Nov 2019 12:00 176 190 thousand
- - - India, Bangladesh
ORANGE 21 09 Nov 2019 18:00 144 2 thousand
- - - - Bangladesh, India
ORANGE 22 10 Nov 2019 00:00 137 170 thousand
- - - - Bangladesh, India
ORANGE 23 10 Nov 2019 06:00 126 460 thousand
- - - - India, Bangladesh
GREEN 24 10 Nov 2019 12:00 83 -
- - - - - Bangladesh, India




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmBangladesh, India, Burma453505
+
India61484 
Bangladesh384704 
Burma7317 
50-100 mmIndia, Bangladesh, Burma1919903
+
India383844 
Bangladesh1508172 
Burma27887 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 221 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 284 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 393 120 thousand
- - - - Vietnam
Blue 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 238 540 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos
Blue 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 348 1.7 million
- - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 244 160 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 7 06 Nov 2019 06:00 183 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Nov 2019 12:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 06 Nov 2019 18:00 223 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 07 Nov 2019 00:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Nov 2019 06:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Nov 2019 12:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Nov 2019 18:00 294 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 08 Nov 2019 00:00 364 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 08 Nov 2019 06:00 343 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 08 Nov 2019 12:00 209 -
- - - - - Bangladesh
Blue 17 08 Nov 2019 18:00 194 -
- - - - - Bangladesh, India
Blue 18 09 Nov 2019 00:00 150 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
Blue 19 09 Nov 2019 06:00 204 6.5 million
- - - - India, Bangladesh
Blue 20 09 Nov 2019 12:00 404 7.1 million
- - - India, Bangladesh
Blue 21 09 Nov 2019 18:00 256 7.8 million
- - - Bangladesh, India
Blue 22 10 Nov 2019 00:00 283 8.9 million
- - - Bangladesh
Blue 23 10 Nov 2019 06:00 171 7.3 million
- - - - India, Bangladesh
Blue 24 10 Nov 2019 12:00 161 450 thousand
- - - - India, Bangladesh, Burma




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.9m in Bamnia, Bangladesh. This height is estimated for 10 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Bamnia Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Charparbati Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Munshir Hat Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Tulatali Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Char Fakura Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Char Chandia Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Bara Ahmadpur Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Banskhali Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Bariakhali Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Akbar Hat Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Dhalapara Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Jafarnagar Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Barabkunda Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Bansbaria Bangladesh  1.9
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Sandwip Bangladesh  1.8
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Kumira Bangladesh  1.8
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Ghoshbagh Bangladesh  1.8
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Hatia Bangladesh  1.7
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Khaser Hat Bangladesh  1.7
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Nalchira Bangladesh  1.7
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Ewazbalia Bangladesh  1.7
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Nayamasti Bangladesh  1.7
10 Nov 2019 12:30 Chandhuri Hat Bangladesh  1.6
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Bara Pata Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Dakshin Char Fasson Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Char Pyarimohan Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Char Annadaprasad Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Chandpur Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Char Lakshmi Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Kanchanpur Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Rabipur Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Char Faizuddin Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Char Krishnaprasad Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Char Manpura Bangladesh  1.2
10 Nov 2019 13:00 Char Madhyam Lamchhidhali Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 13:00 Char Gazi Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 14:15 Char Chandra Prasad Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 14:15 Chandpur Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 14:15 Char Kali Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 14:15 Pangasia Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 14:15 Harni Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 14:15 Goal Bhaor Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 14:15 Char Medua Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 14:15 South Dighaldi Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 14:15 Kalupura Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 14:15 Char Munsi Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 14:15 Hazari Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 14:15 Hazipur Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 14:15 Jagannathpur Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 14:15 Char Lawrence Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 14:15 Char Falcon Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 12:15 Char Algi Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 12:15 Char Ramiz Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 12:15 Dasher Hat Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 12:15 Char Ishwar Ray Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Bhatiari Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Dakhin Kattali Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Dakhin Patenga Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Chittagong Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Char Lakshia Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Gahira Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Janali Hat Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Kalapul Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Khankhanabad Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Anowara Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Noapara Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 13:45 Sakusia Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 13:45 Baga Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 13:45 Char Kadira Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 12:15 Char Bedama Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 13:30 Miar Hat Bangladesh  1.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Ali Akbardeil Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Dhurung Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Lemsikhali Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Magnama Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Napura Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Uttar Nalbila Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Jahajmara Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Maijchara Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Sagaria Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Dhalghata Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Kalarmarchara Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Saflapur Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 12:15 Amavasyakhali Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Ghatibhanga Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Coxs Bazar Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Kelatali Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Khurushkul Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Fasiakhali Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Alanbya Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Kawbein Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Damathat Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Zokali Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Taungxun Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Pechardwip Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Jaliapalong Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Dhoapalong Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Inani Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Monakhali Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Silkhali Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Bardeil Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Whaikhyang Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Dakshim Nhila Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Atikhalipara Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Teknaf Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Kyunbouk Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Sabaigon Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Ale Kalaywa Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 18:00 Kanyinchaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Dakhinpara Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Jaliapara Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Nyaunggyaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Zawmadat Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 13:15 Kakinada India  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Kalipur Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Bara Patharghata Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Jnanpara Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Chhota Nishanbaria Chak Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Dhalua Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Bara Bagi Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Chhota Bagi Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Mahipur Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Chandkhali Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Burir Char Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Kachupatra Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Arpangasia Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Bara Baliatali Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Kalapara Bangladesh  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Anauk Myinhlut Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Kyaukpandu Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Thawinchaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Atet Kyaungdaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Donbaik Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Rathedaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Tumbru Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Vishakhapatnam India  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Chittivalasa India  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Bhimunipatnam India  0.1
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Konada India  0.1

Calculation folder at this link