Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-19/BULBUL-19
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MATMO-19/BULBUL-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries India, Bangladesh
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 97 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.5 m (10 Nov 03:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 40 km/h 0.5 m 64 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 97 km/h 1.5 m 406 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

97 km/h

Up to 450 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormIndia, Bangladesh445519
+
India436655 
Bangladesh8864 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Oct 2019 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 1 06 Nov 2019 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 29 Oct 2019 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Nov 2019 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 30 Oct 2019 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 07 Nov 2019 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Nov 2019 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 08 Nov 2019 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 08 Nov 2019 12:00 97 -
- - - - - India
GREEN 7 09 Nov 2019 00:00 97 -
- - - - - India
GREEN 8 09 Nov 2019 12:00 86 -
- - - - - India, Bangladesh
GREEN 9 10 Nov 2019 00:00 79 -
- - - - - Bangladesh, India
GREEN 10 10 Nov 2019 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 11 Nov 2019 00:00 40 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmBangladesh, India742334
+
India732685 
Bangladesh9649 
100-250 mmBangladesh, India68864074
+
India32463675 
Bangladesh36400399 
50-100 mmBurma, India, Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh, China, Thailand115558889
+
Burma2464908 
India30694770 
Bhutan1753 
Nepal11196 
Bangladesh82386133 
China1 
Thailand128 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Oct 2019 00:00 152 - - - - - - -
Blue 1 06 Nov 2019 00:00 152 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 29 Oct 2019 12:00 207 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 06 Nov 2019 12:00 207 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 30 Oct 2019 00:00 201 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 07 Nov 2019 00:00 201 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 182 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 07 Nov 2019 12:00 182 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 08 Nov 2019 00:00 149 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 08 Nov 2019 12:00 232 -
- - - - - India
Blue 7 09 Nov 2019 00:00 202 390 thousand
- - - - India, Burma, Bangladesh
Blue 8 09 Nov 2019 12:00 261 1.4 million
- - - Bangladesh, India
Blue 9 10 Nov 2019 00:00 201 10.8 million
- - - - Bangladesh
Blue 10 10 Nov 2019 12:00 73 -
- - - - - Burma, Bangladesh
Blue 11 11 Nov 2019 00:00 64 -
- - - - - India, Burma




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.5m in Kalipur, Bangladesh. This height is estimated for 10 Nov 2019 03:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Nov 2019 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Kalipur Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Bara Patharghata Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Jnanpara Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Chhota Nishanbaria Chak Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Dhalua Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Bara Bagi Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Chhota Bagi Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Mahipur Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Chandkhali Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Burir Char Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Kachupatra Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Arpangasia Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Bara Baliatali Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 03:15 Kalapara Bangladesh  1.5
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Bara Pata Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Dakshin Char Fasson Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Char Pyarimohan Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Char Annadaprasad Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Chandpur Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Char Lakshmi Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Kanchanpur Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Rabipur Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Char Faizuddin Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Char Krishnaprasad Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Char Manpura Bangladesh  1.4
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Bamnia Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Charparbati Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Munshir Hat Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Tulatali Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Char Fakura Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Char Chandia Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Bara Ahmadpur Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Banskhali Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Bariakhali Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Chandhuri Hat Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Hatia Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Khaser Hat Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Nalchira Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Ewazbalia Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:45 Akbar Hat Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:45 Dhalapara Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Ghoshbagh Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Sandwip Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:15 Jafarnagar Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 12:00 Nayamasti Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Barabkunda Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Bansbaria Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 11:30 Kumira Bangladesh  1.0
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Jahajmara Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Maijchara Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 06:30 Sagaria Bangladesh  0.8
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Bhatiari Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Dakhin Kattali Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Dakhin Patenga Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Chittagong Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Char Lakshia Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Gahira Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Janali Hat Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Kalapul Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Khankhanabad Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Anowara Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 09:45 Noapara Bangladesh  0.7
10 Nov 2019 16:15 Char Chandra Prasad Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:15 Chandpur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:15 Char Kali Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:15 Pangasia Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:15 Harni Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:15 Goal Bhaor Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:15 Char Medua Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:15 South Dighaldi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:15 Kalupura Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:15 Char Munsi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:15 Hazari Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:15 Hazipur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:15 Jagannathpur Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:15 Char Lawrence Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:15 Char Falcon Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:30 Sakusia Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:30 Char Madhyam Lamchhidhali Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:30 Char Kadira Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:30 Char Algi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 14:45 Char Gazi Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:30 Baga Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 14:45 Dasher Hat Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:30 Miar Hat Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:30 Char Ramiz Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 16:30 Char Bedama Bangladesh  0.6
10 Nov 2019 14:00 Char Ishwar Ray Bangladesh  0.6
08 Nov 2019 21:45 Rasalpur India  0.5
08 Nov 2019 21:45 Chandipur India  0.5
10 Nov 2019 08:45 Ali Akbardeil Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 08:45 Dhurung Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 08:45 Lemsikhali Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 08:45 Magnama Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 08:45 Napura Bangladesh  0.5
10 Nov 2019 08:45 Uttar Nalbila Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 08:30 Dhalghata Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 08:45 Kalarmarchara Bangladesh  0.4
10 Nov 2019 08:45 Saflapur Bangladesh  0.4
07 Nov 2019 14:30 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.4
07 Nov 2019 14:30 Alanbya Myanmar  0.4
07 Nov 2019 14:30 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.4
07 Nov 2019 14:30 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.4
07 Nov 2019 14:30 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.4
07 Nov 2019 14:30 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.4
07 Nov 2019 14:30 Kawbein Myanmar  0.4
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Amavasyakhali Bangladesh  0.4
07 Nov 2019 14:30 Damathat Myanmar  0.4
07 Nov 2019 14:45 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 14:45 Zokali Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 14:45 Taungxun Myanmar  0.3
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Ghatibhanga Bangladesh  0.3
10 Nov 2019 09:15 Coxs Bazar Bangladesh  0.3
09 Nov 2019 00:45 Hukitala India  0.3
09 Nov 2019 01:00 Satabhaya India  0.3
07 Nov 2019 15:15 Taunggyi Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 15:15 Budin Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 15:15 Kadaik Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 15:15 Donwun Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 15:30 Kangyisu Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 15:45 Thamaseikta Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 15:30 Mahameik Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 15:30 Tanbingyaung Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 15:30 Khindan Myanmar  0.3
07 Nov 2019 14:30 Shangyaung Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 15:00 Darein Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 15:00 Paung Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 08:00 Kakinada India  0.2
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Kelatali Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Khurushkul Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Fasiakhali Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 02:00 Nuliasahi India  0.2
07 Nov 2019 17:15 Saluzeik Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 17:15 Thingangyi Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 17:15 Seikkyi Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 17:15 Thingangon Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 17:15 Kyauktazi Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 06:15 Karen India  0.2
07 Nov 2019 18:45 Pyapon Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 18:45 Apaung Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 18:45 Akechaungwa Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 18:45 Ase Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 19:15 Tawgyaik Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 19:15 Ale-ywa Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 14:30 Munaing Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 14:30 Tagukana Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 14:30 Kawpamagon Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 01:30 Nuagan India  0.2
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Pechardwip Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Jaliapalong Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Dhoapalong Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 07:00 Inani Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Monakhali Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 06:45 Silkhali Bangladesh  0.2
09 Nov 2019 11:45 Chetpauk Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 19:30 Kadonkani Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 19:30 Yegyawgyi Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 19:30 Ama Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 15:15 Bardeil Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 15:15 Atikhalipara Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 15:15 Teknaf Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 15:15 Dakhinpara Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 15:15 Ale Kalaywa Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 15:15 Kanyinchaung Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 15:15 Jaliapara Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 15:15 Nyaunggyaung Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 15:15 Zawmadat Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Whaikhyang Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Dakshim Nhila Bangladesh  0.2
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Kyunbouk Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 08:00 Sabaigon Myanmar  0.2
10 Nov 2019 07:15 Tumbru Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 18:00 Dawnvein Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 21:30 Pyinkayaing Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 21:30 Wagon Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 21:30 Ledaung Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 21:30 Chaunggwa Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 21:30 Magyigyaing Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 21:30 Thetkethaung Myanmar  0.2
07 Nov 2019 21:30 Okkan Myanmar  0.2
09 Nov 2019 02:30 Konarak India  0.2
07 Nov 2019 20:45 Zibyugyaung Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 13:30 Kwanhla Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 18:15 Geonkhali India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 18:15 Nurpur India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 18:15 Diamond Harbor India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 15:30 Nuralrevu India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 15:30 Gopalpur India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 04:15 Ilichar India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 06:45 Vishakhapatnam India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 06:45 Chittivalasa India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 06:45 Bhimunipatnam India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 06:45 Konada India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 10:00 Alandaing Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 10:00 Hseikma Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 07:15 Amaw Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 07:15 Hpanchaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 07:15 Gyibyin Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 07:15 Temauk Myanmar  0.1
07 Nov 2019 15:30 Naupada India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 15:30 Ammalapadu India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 13:45 Kyaikkami Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 15:30 Baruva India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 07:00 Shwehle Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 03:00 Puri India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 03:00 Balighai India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 22:15 Anin Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 22:15 Thinbawzeik Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 23:00 Kayindaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 23:00 Wagaru Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 23:00 Wegalaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 23:00 Karokpi Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 22:15 Andin Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Canjam India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Paluru India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 15:00 Malud India  0.1
07 Nov 2019 15:45 Chatrapur India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 03:45 Arainj-laka-punga India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 03:45 Kartara India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 22:00 Duya Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 01:30 Palalankwe India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 15:15 Panasapada India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 11:00 Koyyam India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 11:00 Dharmavaram India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 08:30 Chauklangwe Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 08:30 Dodan Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 08:30 Kabaingchaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 08:30 Pyindaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 08:30 Mawhun Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 08:30 Awabyin Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 14:30 Anauk Myinhlut Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 14:30 Kyaukpandu Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 14:30 Thawinchaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 14:30 Atet Kyaungdaung Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 14:30 Donbaik Myanmar  0.1
10 Nov 2019 14:30 Rathedaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 07:15 Ponnagyi Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 07:15 Chaunggya Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 07:15 Peikseik Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 07:15 Phapholting Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 07:00 Myaukpyin Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 07:00 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 07:00 Kyaukmaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 07:00 Gwedaukchaung Myanmar  0.1
08 Nov 2019 10:30 Pentakota India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 13:45 Venkatapuram India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 13:45 Pata Polvaram India  0.1
08 Nov 2019 13:45 Pudimadaka India  0.1
09 Nov 2019 07:30 Tandin Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 07:30 Khamaungdwe Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 06:30 Kudaung Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:00 Kyaukpyinseik Myanmar  0.1
09 Nov 2019 00:00 Sandawshin Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 08:15 Htawa Myanmar  0.1

Calculation folder at this link