Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BATSIRAI-22
in Madagascar
05 Feb 2022 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2022-000160-MDG
    Exposed countries Madagascar
    Exposed population 2.9 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 231 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (10 Jan 17:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)
    Landfall between
    05 Feb 2022 12:00 - 06 Feb 2022 00:00
    in Madagascar

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 185 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 2.5
    Overall 231 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 2.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      185 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 2.2 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 27 Jan 2022 00:00 102 40 thousand No people Mauritius
        Green 2 27 Jan 2022 12:00 167 40 thousand No people Mauritius
        Green 3 28 Jan 2022 00:00 130 40 thousand No people Mauritius
        Green 4 28 Jan 2022 12:00 139 1000 thousand No people Mauritius
        Green 5 29 Jan 2022 00:00 176 1.1 million No people Mauritius
        Green 6 29 Jan 2022 12:00 194 2.2 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 7 30 Jan 2022 00:00 185 2 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 8 30 Jan 2022 12:00 204 3.1 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
        Green 9 31 Jan 2022 00:00 194 3.7 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
        Green 10 31 Jan 2022 12:00 194 14.4 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
        Orange 11 01 Feb 2022 00:00 204 16.4 million 480 thousand Madagascar
        Red 12 01 Feb 2022 12:00 204 18.9 million 3.8 million Madagascar
        Red 13 02 Feb 2022 00:00 231 20.3 million 2.8 million Madagascar
        Red 14 02 Feb 2022 12:00 204 21 million 2.7 million Madagascar
        Red 15 03 Feb 2022 00:00 204 20.8 million 3.6 million Madagascar
        Red 16 03 Feb 2022 12:00 185 20.6 million 4.3 million Madagascar
        Red 17 04 Feb 2022 00:00 204 20.6 million 4.4 million Madagascar
        Red 18 04 Feb 2022 12:00 222 21.2 million 2.1 million Madagascar
        Red 19 05 Feb 2022 00:00 185 20.8 million 2.2 million Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 27 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -16.4, 83.7
          GREEN
          		 2 27 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -18, 79.6
          GREEN
          		 3 28 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -18.6, 76.1
          GREEN
          		 4 28 Jan 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -18.3, 73.4
          GREEN
          		 5 29 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -18.2, 71.2
          GREEN
          		 6 29 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -18, 69.9
          GREEN
          		 7 30 Jan 2022 00:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -17.6, 68.2
          GREEN
          		 8 30 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 2 176 no people no people -16.8, 66.1
          GREEN
          		 9 31 Jan 2022 00:00 Category 2 176 no people no people -16.4, 64.5
          GREEN
          		 10 31 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 2 157 no people no people -15.7, 63.2
          GREEN
          		 11 01 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -16.4, 62.3
          GREEN
          		 12 01 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 2 167 no people 1.2 million people -17.2, 60.1
          GREEN
          		 13 02 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 4 222 no people 2.2 million people -18.1, 58.3
          GREEN
          		 14 02 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 4 231 no people 2.2 million people -18.9, 56.7
          GREEN
          		 15 03 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 4 213 no people 2.2 million people -19.1, 55.7
          GREEN
          		 16 03 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 4 213 no people 850000 people -19.2, 54.9
          GREEN
          		 17 04 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 3 194 no people 850000 people -19.4, 53.9
          GREEN
          		 18 04 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 4 213 no people 8.9 million people -19.4, 52.6
          RED
          		 19 05 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 3 185 160000 people 14.6 million people -19.9, 51.3
          RED
          		 19 05 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 2 176 2.2 million people 16.7 million people -20.5, 49.4
          ORANGE
          		 19 06 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 16.6 million people -21.1, 47.2 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 19 06 Feb 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 6.2 million people -22, 44.5 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 19 07 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 2.6 million people -22.8, 42.8
          GREEN
          		 19 08 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 1.9 million people -24.5, 41.6
          GREEN
          		 19 09 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 530000 people -27.5, 41.7
          GREEN
          		 19 10 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -31.4, 43.1
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Toamasina Madagascar
          Fianarantsoa Madagascar

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Mananjary Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 27000 people
          Ambositra Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 30000 people
          Fianarantsoa Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 160000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Mananjary MNJ 6 Civ. Paved No 4900
          Fianarantsoa WFI 1115 Civ. Paved No 4100

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Mahanoro MGVVB Madagascar
          Mananjary MGMNJ Madagascar
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.6 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Ambahy, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 10 Jan 2022 17:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (182 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 19 of 05 Feb 2022 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          10 Jan 2022 17:00 Ambahy Madagascar  0.6
          10 Jan 2022 17:00 Ambohitsara Madagascar  0.5
          10 Jan 2022 17:00 Anasindrano Madagascar  0.5
          12 Jan 2022 09:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.5
          12 Jan 2022 09:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.5
          12 Jan 2022 09:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.5
          12 Jan 2022 09:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.5
          12 Jan 2022 09:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.4
          10 Jan 2022 16:00 Nosy-Varika Madagascar  0.4
          12 Jan 2022 05:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.4
          10 Jan 2022 17:00 Andranomahitsy Madagascar  0.4
          12 Jan 2022 09:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.4
          11 Jan 2022 20:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.4
          11 Jan 2022 22:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.4
          11 Jan 2022 22:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.4
          12 Jan 2022 10:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.4
          12 Jan 2022 08:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.4
          11 Jan 2022 21:00 Salary Madagascar  0.4
          12 Jan 2022 10:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.3
          12 Jan 2022 09:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.3
          10 Jan 2022 17:00 Mahela Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 23:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.3
          12 Jan 2022 05:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 23:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.3
          12 Jan 2022 11:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.3
          10 Jan 2022 15:00 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 19:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 13:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 13:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 13:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 13:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 21:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 21:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 21:00 Bekodoy Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 12:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 12:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 12:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 12:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 20:00 Ambatomilo Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 15:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 15:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 15:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 15:00 Onara Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 20:00 Ambohitrabo Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 11:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 11:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 11:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 11:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.3
          12 Jan 2022 11:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.3
          10 Jan 2022 15:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 21:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.3
          12 Jan 2022 02:00 Morombe Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 15:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.3
          12 Jan 2022 06:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.3
          12 Jan 2022 06:00 Amado Mozambique  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 20:00 Andalambezo Madagascar  0.3
          12 Jan 2022 05:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 18:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 12:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 12:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 12:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 21:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 09:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 13:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 13:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 13:00 Baly Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 13:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
          12 Jan 2022 04:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 10:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 18:00 Mananjary Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 09:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.2
          12 Jan 2022 14:00 Marofihitsa Madagascar  0.2
          12 Jan 2022 14:00 Ambararata Madagascar  0.2
          12 Jan 2022 14:00 Manahy Madagascar  0.2
          12 Jan 2022 14:00 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 20:00 Andavadoaka Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 17:00 Itenina Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 17:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.2
          12 Jan 2022 02:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 17:00 Ankarimbary Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 17:00 Savana Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 17:00 Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 17:00 Marohita Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 17:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.2
          12 Jan 2022 03:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
          12 Jan 2022 06:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
          12 Jan 2022 06:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.2
          12 Jan 2022 06:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
          12 Jan 2022 06:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 21:00 Befandeva Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 18:00 Tataho Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 09:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 13:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 12:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 13:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.2
          12 Jan 2022 06:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.2
          12 Jan 2022 01:00 Tama Mozambique  0.2
          12 Jan 2022 08:00 Ankoba Madagascar  0.2
          12 Jan 2022 08:00 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.2
          12 Jan 2022 08:00 Mite Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 20:00 Bekoropoka Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 20:00 Ambohibe Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 20:00 Andranopasy Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 14:00 Ambodiharina Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 17:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 19:00 Anadramy Nord Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 06:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 06:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 20:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 14:00 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.1
          12 Jan 2022 08:00 Barra Mozambique  0.1
          12 Jan 2022 02:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
          12 Jan 2022 02:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 22:00 Mangolovolo Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 21:00 Tsifota Madagascar  0.1
          12 Jan 2022 01:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 14:00 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
          12 Jan 2022 02:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
          12 Jan 2022 06:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.1
          12 Jan 2022 02:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
          12 Jan 2022 02:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 09:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 18:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 11:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 13:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 13:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 13:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 18:00 Anakitaina Madagascar  0.1
          12 Jan 2022 01:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.1
          12 Jan 2022 06:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 18:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.1
          12 Jan 2022 01:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.1
          13 Jan 2022 19:00 Tsiandamba Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 16:00 Manombo Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 18:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 07:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 17:00 Manakara Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 13:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 21:00 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
          12 Jan 2022 01:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 11:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 18:00 Pakapakaina Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.1
          12 Jan 2022 06:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 13:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.1
          12 Jan 2022 01:00 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
          12 Jan 2022 02:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 11:00 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 13:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 13:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 22:00 Ambolomailaka Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 01:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 02:00 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 02:00 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 12:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 13:00 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 13:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
          12 Jan 2022 00:00 Vatomirindry Madagascar  0.1
          12 Jan 2022 00:00 Ambanihazo Madagascar  0.1
          12 Jan 2022 00:00 Antsotso Avaratra Madagascar  0.1
          13 Jan 2022 22:00 Antseranambe Madagascar  0.1