Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BATSIRAI-22
in Madagascar
06 Feb 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2022-000160-MDG
    Exposed countries Madagascar
    Exposed population 2.9 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 231 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (11 Jan 01:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)
    Landfall between
    05 Feb 2022 12:00 - 06 Feb 2022 00:00
    in Madagascar

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 102 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 231 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 2.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      102 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 20.4 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 27 Jan 2022 00:00 102 40 thousand No people Mauritius
        Green 2 27 Jan 2022 12:00 167 40 thousand No people Mauritius
        Green 3 28 Jan 2022 00:00 130 40 thousand No people Mauritius
        Green 4 28 Jan 2022 12:00 139 1000 thousand No people Mauritius
        Green 5 29 Jan 2022 00:00 176 1.1 million No people Mauritius
        Green 6 29 Jan 2022 12:00 194 2.2 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 7 30 Jan 2022 00:00 185 2 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 8 30 Jan 2022 12:00 204 3.1 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
        Green 9 31 Jan 2022 00:00 194 3.7 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
        Green 10 31 Jan 2022 12:00 194 14.4 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
        Orange 11 01 Feb 2022 00:00 204 16.4 million 480 thousand Madagascar
        Red 12 01 Feb 2022 12:00 204 18.9 million 3.8 million Madagascar
        Red 13 02 Feb 2022 00:00 231 20.3 million 2.8 million Madagascar
        Red 14 02 Feb 2022 12:00 204 21 million 2.7 million Madagascar
        Red 15 03 Feb 2022 00:00 204 20.8 million 3.6 million Madagascar
        Red 16 03 Feb 2022 12:00 185 20.6 million 4.3 million Madagascar
        Red 17 04 Feb 2022 00:00 204 20.6 million 4.4 million Madagascar
        Red 18 04 Feb 2022 12:00 222 21.2 million 2.1 million Madagascar
        Red 19 05 Feb 2022 00:00 185 20.8 million 2.2 million Madagascar
        Red 20 05 Feb 2022 12:00 185 20.4 million 2.9 million Madagascar
        Orange 21 06 Feb 2022 00:00 111 20.2 million 2.9 million Madagascar
        Green 22 06 Feb 2022 12:00 102 20.4 million 2.9 million Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 27 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -16.4, 83.7
          GREEN
          		 2 27 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -18, 79.6
          GREEN
          		 3 28 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -18.6, 76.1
          GREEN
          		 4 28 Jan 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -18.3, 73.4
          GREEN
          		 5 29 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -18.2, 71.2
          GREEN
          		 6 29 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -18, 69.9
          GREEN
          		 7 30 Jan 2022 00:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -17.6, 68.2
          GREEN
          		 8 30 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 2 176 no people no people -16.8, 66.1
          GREEN
          		 9 31 Jan 2022 00:00 Category 2 176 no people no people -16.4, 64.5
          GREEN
          		 10 31 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 2 157 no people no people -15.7, 63.2
          GREEN
          		 11 01 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -16.4, 62.3
          GREEN
          		 12 01 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 2 167 no people 1.2 million people -17.2, 60.1
          GREEN
          		 13 02 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 4 222 no people 2.2 million people -18.1, 58.3
          GREEN
          		 14 02 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 4 231 no people 2.2 million people -18.9, 56.7
          GREEN
          		 15 03 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 4 213 no people 2.2 million people -19.1, 55.7
          GREEN
          		 16 03 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 4 213 no people 850000 people -19.2, 54.9
          GREEN
          		 17 04 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 3 194 no people 850000 people -19.4, 53.9
          GREEN
          		 18 04 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 4 213 no people 8.9 million people -19.4, 52.6
          RED
          		 19 05 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 3 185 160000 people 14.6 million people -19.9, 51.3
          RED
          		 20 05 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 3 185 2.5 million people 16.1 million people -20.8, 49.4
          ORANGE
          		 21 06 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 16.3 million people -21.3, 46.9 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 22 06 Feb 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 5.6 million people -22.9, 44.4 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 22 06 Feb 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 2.5 million people -23.9, 42.5
          GREEN
          		 22 07 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 2.1 million people -24.7, 41.8
          GREEN
          		 22 07 Feb 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 1 million people -26, 41.5
          GREEN
          		 22 08 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 35000 people -27.6, 41.7
          GREEN
          		 22 09 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -32.3, 43
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar
          Reunion
          Mauritius

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Toliara Madagascar
          Fianarantsoa Madagascar
          Antananarivo Madagascar
          Mahajanga Madagascar
          Toamasina Madagascar
          Reunion Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          Mauritius Mauritius

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Ankazoabo Toliara Madagascar City 26000 people
          Tulear Toliara Madagascar Major city -
          Manja Toliara Madagascar City -
          Morombe Toliara Madagascar City -
          Betroka Toliara Madagascar City -
          Ihosy Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 17000 people
          Ambohibe Toliara Madagascar City -
          Fianarantsoa Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 160000 people
          Farafangana Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 25000 people
          Sahasinaka Fianarantsoa Madagascar City -
          Manakara Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 35000 people
          Ambositra Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 30000 people
          Antsirabe Antananarivo Madagascar City 150000 people
          Mananjary Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 27000 people
          Saka Antananarivo Madagascar City -
          Antananarivo Antananarivo Madagascar Capital 1.4 million people
          Moramanga Toamasina Madagascar City 29000 people
          Tamatave Toamasina Madagascar City 200000 people
          Fenerive Toamasina Madagascar City -
          Saint-Denis Reunion Capital 140000 people
          Port Louis Mauritius Capital 150000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Ankazoabo WAK 430 Civ. Unpaved No 3500
          Toliara TLE 8 Civ. Paved No 6500
          Betioky BKU unknown 0
          Tanandava TDV 27 Civ. Unpaved No 4500
          Beroroha WBO 250 Civ. Unpaved No 3100
          Manja MJA 240 Civ. Unpaved No 5200
          Morombe MXM 5 Civ. Paved No 4200
          Bekily OVA 387 Civ. Unpaved No 4100
          Ihosy IHO 762 Civ. Unpaved No 5400
          Ampanihy AMP 235 Civ. Unpaved No 3600
          Mandabe WMD 290 Civ. Unpaved No 3500
          Ambalavao 972 Civ. Unpaved No 3600
          Morondava MOQ 7 Civ. Paved No 4900
          Malaimbandy WML 182 Civ. Unpaved No 3900
          Fianarantsoa WFI 1115 Civ. Paved No 4100
          Ambatolahy AHY unknown 0
          Farafangana RVA 8 Civ. Unpaved No 3400
          Belo Sur Tsiribihina BMD 47 Civ. Paved No 4400
          Manakara Sud WVK 10 Civ. Paved No 3900
          Miandrivazo ZVA 62 Civ. Paved No 3600
          Antsirabe ATJ 1523 Civ. Unpaved No 4900
          Mananjary MNJ 6 Civ. Paved No 4900
          Ankavandra JVA 130 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
          Tsiroanomandidy WTS 846 Civ. Unpaved No 3500
          Antananarivo Arivonimamo 1450 0
          Antananarivo Ivato TNR 1279 Civ. Paved Yes 10100
          Mahanoro VVB 5 Civ. Unpaved No 4400
          Atsinanana ILK 10 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
          Vatomandry VAT 12 Civ. Unpaved No 3800
          Ambatondrazaka WAM 766 Civ. Unpaved No 4200
          Toamasina TMM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
          Sainte Marie SMS 2 Civ. Paved No 3300
          St Pierre Pierrefonds ZSE 16 0
          Saint Denis Gillot RUN 20 0
          Plaisance International MRU 57 Civ. Paved Yes 9900

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Toliara MGTLE Madagascar
          Manombo MGMOB Madagascar
          Morombe MGMXM Madagascar
          Antongo Madagascar
          Androka MGADK Madagascar
          Belo Sur Mer Madagascar
          Morondava MGMOQ Madagascar
          Faux Cap Madagascar
          Manantenina Madagascar
          Farafangana MGRVA Madagascar
          Manakara MGWVK Madagascar
          Mananjary MGMNJ Madagascar
          Mahanoro MGVVB Madagascar
          Vatomandry MGVAT Madagascar
          Andevoranto Madagascar
          Tamatave (Toamasina) MGTMM Madagascar
          Foulpointe Madagascar
          Fenerive Madagascar
          Port Sainte Marie Madagascar
          Pointe Des Galets REPDG Reunion
          Saint Pierre Reunion
          Saint Denis Reunion
          Port Louis MUPLU Mauritius
          Mahebourg Mauritius

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Tsiazompaniry Varahina-Sud 1956
          Mantasoa Varahina-Nord 1938
          Antanifotsy Antanifotsy 1958
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.3 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Savana, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 11 Jan 2022 01:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (73 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 22 of 06 Feb 2022 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Savana Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Ankarimbary Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 00:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 00:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 00:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 00:00 Tataho Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 00:00 Manakara Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 00:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Bemahala Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 00:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Farafangana Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 00:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 00:00 Andranomahitsy Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 00:00 Ambohitsara Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Tsivala Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 02:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 02:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Amboboka Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 00:00 Ambahy Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Manambotra Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Ampatsinakoho Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 00:00 Anakitaina Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Mananjary Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 00:00 Mahela Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 00:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 02:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 02:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 02:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 00:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Ampataka Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Ankaramanihy Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Marohita Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 00:00 Anasindrano Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 00:00 Nosy-Varika Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 00:00 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Pakapakaina Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Itenina Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 02:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 02:00 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 02:00 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 02:00 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 00:00 Ambodiharina Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 00:00 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 00:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Befasy Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 00:00 Manambondro Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 00:00 Amboananto Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 02:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Manantenina Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 01:00 Sarahanonoy Madagascar  0.1