Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BATSIRAI-22
in Madagascar
02 Feb 2022 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 198 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.9 m (02 Feb 10:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 198 km/h 0.9 m 190 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 216 km/h 1.2 m 889 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Feb 2022 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar, Mauritius, Reunion1,967,053
+
Madagascar87,582 
Mauritius1,192,739 
Reunion686,731 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 27 Jan 2022 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 27 Jan 2022 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 27 Jan 2022 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 27 Jan 2022 18:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 28 Jan 2022 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 28 Jan 2022 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 28 Jan 2022 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 28 Jan 2022 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 29 Jan 2022 00:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 29 Jan 2022 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 29 Jan 2022 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 29 Jan 2022 18:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 30 Jan 2022 00:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 30 Jan 2022 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 30 Jan 2022 12:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 30 Jan 2022 18:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 31 Jan 2022 00:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 31 Jan 2022 06:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 31 Jan 2022 12:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 31 Jan 2022 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 01 Feb 2022 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 01 Feb 2022 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 01 Feb 2022 12:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 01 Feb 2022 18:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 25 02 Feb 2022 00:00 187 -
- - - - - Mauritius
GREEN 26 02 Feb 2022 06:00 198 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall

889 mm

Up to 3 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 02 Feb 2022 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmReunion252,365 
100-250 mmMadagascar, Reunion2,789,077
+
Madagascar2,180,289 
Reunion608,788 
50-100 mmComoros, Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Madagascar, Mauritius5,626,723
+
Comoros407,103 
Tanzania16,673 
Malawi1,070,886 
Mozambique56,776 
Zambia48,971 
Madagascar2,796,076 
Mauritius1,230,236 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 27 Jan 2022 00:00 107 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 27 Jan 2022 06:00 75 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 27 Jan 2022 12:00 93 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 27 Jan 2022 18:00 106 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 28 Jan 2022 00:00 67 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 28 Jan 2022 06:00 96 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 28 Jan 2022 12:00 82 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 28 Jan 2022 18:00 139 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 29 Jan 2022 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 29 Jan 2022 06:00 131 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 11 29 Jan 2022 12:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 29 Jan 2022 18:00 187 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 30 Jan 2022 00:00 121 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 30 Jan 2022 06:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 30 Jan 2022 12:00 167 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 30 Jan 2022 18:00 278 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 31 Jan 2022 00:00 305 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 31 Jan 2022 06:00 286 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 31 Jan 2022 12:00 312 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 31 Jan 2022 18:00 113 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 01 Feb 2022 00:00 180 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 01 Feb 2022 06:00 103 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 01 Feb 2022 12:00 163 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 01 Feb 2022 18:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 02 Feb 2022 00:00 222 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 02 Feb 2022 06:00 603 3 million
- - - Comoros, Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.9m in Voloina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 02 Feb 2022 10:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Feb 2022 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
02 Feb 2022 10:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.9
02 Feb 2022 10:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.9
02 Feb 2022 10:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.9
02 Feb 2022 10:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.9
02 Feb 2022 10:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.9
02 Feb 2022 10:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.9
02 Feb 2022 10:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.9
02 Feb 2022 10:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.9
02 Feb 2022 10:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.9
02 Feb 2022 10:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.8
02 Feb 2022 10:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.8
02 Feb 2022 10:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.7
02 Feb 2022 10:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.7
02 Feb 2022 10:15 Anoromby Madagascar  0.7
02 Feb 2022 10:15 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.6
02 Feb 2022 10:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.6
02 Feb 2022 10:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.5
02 Feb 2022 10:15 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.5
02 Feb 2022 10:15 Tampolo Madagascar  0.5
02 Feb 2022 10:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.5
02 Feb 2022 10:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.5
02 Feb 2022 10:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.5
02 Feb 2022 10:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.5
02 Feb 2022 10:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.4
02 Feb 2022 10:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.3
02 Feb 2022 10:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.3
02 Feb 2022 10:15 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.2
02 Feb 2022 10:15 Antanambe Madagascar  0.2
02 Feb 2022 06:15 Saint-Antoine Mauritius  0.2
02 Feb 2022 06:15 Riviere du Rempart Mauritius  0.2
02 Feb 2022 06:15 Grande Reviere Sud Est Mauritius  0.2
02 Feb 2022 06:00 Maheboug Mauritius  0.2
02 Feb 2022 10:15 Riche-en-Eau Mauritius  0.2
02 Feb 2022 10:15 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.2
02 Feb 2022 10:15 Manambato Madagascar  0.2
02 Feb 2022 11:30 Saint-Denis Reunion  0.2
02 Feb 2022 11:30 Saint-Marie Reunion  0.2
02 Feb 2022 11:30 Sainte-Suzanne Reunion  0.2
02 Feb 2022 11:30 Saint-Andre Reunion  0.2
02 Feb 2022 11:30 Bras-Panon Reunion  0.2
02 Feb 2022 10:15 Vatobe Madagascar  0.2
02 Feb 2022 12:00 Trou aux Biches Mauritius  0.2
02 Feb 2022 11:30 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
02 Feb 2022 11:30 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
02 Feb 2022 11:30 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
02 Feb 2022 11:30 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
02 Feb 2022 11:15 Vohilava Madagascar  0.2
02 Feb 2022 11:30 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.2
02 Feb 2022 11:30 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.2
02 Feb 2022 11:30 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.2
02 Feb 2022 11:30 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.2
02 Feb 2022 11:15 Ampasina Madagascar  0.2
02 Feb 2022 11:15 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
02 Feb 2022 11:15 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
02 Feb 2022 11:00 Le Port Reunion  0.2
02 Feb 2022 11:00 La Possession Reunion  0.2
02 Feb 2022 10:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
02 Feb 2022 11:30 Port Louis Mauritius  0.2
02 Feb 2022 10:45 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
02 Feb 2022 10:45 Fenerive Madagascar  0.2
02 Feb 2022 11:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
02 Feb 2022 11:15 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 10:30 Saint-Paul Reunion  0.1
02 Feb 2022 10:30 Saint-Leu Reunion  0.1
02 Feb 2022 10:30 Trois Bassins Reunion  0.1
02 Feb 2022 10:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 11:15 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 11:30 Black River Mauritius  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:00 Choisy Mauritius  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:00 Chemin Grenier Mauritius  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:00 Souillac Mauritius  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:45 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:45 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:45 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:45 Mandrony Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:45 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:45 Anompaka Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:45 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:45 Mahitsihazo Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:45 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:45 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:45 Bevoay Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:45 Maromandia Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:15 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:15 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:15 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:15 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:15 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:15 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:15 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 10:15 Ambahy Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 10:15 Anasindrano Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 10:15 Nosy-Varika Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 09:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 09:00 Ampanavoana Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 09:00 Maniroka Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 09:00 Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 09:00 Ratsianarana Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 09:30 Ambodipont-Sahana Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 09:30 Ampaha Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 09:30 Andrapengy Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 09:30 Ambinany Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 09:30 Antalaha Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 10:45 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 10:45 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:00 Tataho Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:00 Manakara Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 11:30 Saint-Benoit Reunion  0.1
02 Feb 2022 11:00 Antsirabato Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 11:00 Anjahamarina Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 11:00 Ambalabe Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 10:15 Ambodivato Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 10:15 Ambohitralanana Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 12:00 Antunes Mozambique  0.1
02 Feb 2022 12:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.1
02 Feb 2022 12:00 Beira Mozambique  0.1
02 Feb 2022 12:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.1
02 Feb 2022 12:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:45 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:45 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:45 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.1
02 Feb 2022 06:30 Machesse Mozambique  0.1