Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MATMO-19/BULBUL-19
in Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Viet Nam
06 Nov 2019 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MATMO-19/BULBUL-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 54 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (06 Nov 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 54 km/h 0.3 m 85 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 169 km/h 1.9 m 570 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

169 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 06 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 86 -
- - - - - Taiwan
GREEN 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 94 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 90 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 72 -
- - - - - Vietnam
GREEN 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 31 Oct 2019 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 31 Oct 2019 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 31 Oct 2019 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 01 Nov 2019 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 01 Nov 2019 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 01 Nov 2019 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 01 Nov 2019 18:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 02 Nov 2019 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 02 Nov 2019 06:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 02 Nov 2019 12:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 02 Nov 2019 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 03 Nov 2019 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 03 Nov 2019 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 03 Nov 2019 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Taiwan
GREEN 21 03 Nov 2019 18:00 68 -
- - - - - Taiwan
GREEN 22 04 Nov 2019 00:00 79 -
- - - - - Taiwan
GREEN 23 04 Nov 2019 06:00 68 -
- - - - - Taiwan
GREEN 24 04 Nov 2019 12:00 68 -
- - - - - Taiwan
GREEN 25 04 Nov 2019 18:00 72 -
- - - - - Taiwan, Philippines
GREEN 26 05 Nov 2019 00:00 72 -
- - - - - Taiwan
GREEN 27 05 Nov 2019 06:00 76 -
- - - - - Taiwan
GREEN 28 05 Nov 2019 12:00 65 -
- - - - - Taiwan
GREEN 29 05 Nov 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 30 06 Nov 2019 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 31 06 Nov 2019 06:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 32 06 Nov 2019 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmIndia56 
100-250 mmBangladesh, India1,715,562
+
Bangladesh542,692 
India1,172,870 
50-100 mmBangladesh, India, Burma, Thailand15,750,092
+
Bangladesh3,442,765 
India2,535,537 
Burma9,768,428 
Thailand3,362 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 29 Oct 2019 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 30 Oct 2019 00:00 139 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 30 Oct 2019 06:00 135 1.8 million
- - - - Vietnam
Blue 4 30 Oct 2019 12:00 139 290 thousand
- - - - Vietnam, Laos
Blue 5 30 Oct 2019 18:00 106 3 thousand
- - - - Taiwan, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Blue 6 31 Oct 2019 00:00 77 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
Blue 7 31 Oct 2019 06:00 62 -
- - - - - Vietnam, Laos
Blue 8 31 Oct 2019 12:00 69 -
- - - - - Vietnam
Blue 9 31 Oct 2019 18:00 139 -
- - - - - Vietnam
Blue 10 01 Nov 2019 00:00 159 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 01 Nov 2019 06:00 91 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 01 Nov 2019 12:00 26 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 01 Nov 2019 18:00 43 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 02 Nov 2019 00:00 54 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 15 02 Nov 2019 06:00 51 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 02 Nov 2019 12:00 37 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 02 Nov 2019 18:00 75 -
- - - - - Vietnam
Blue 18 03 Nov 2019 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 03 Nov 2019 06:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 03 Nov 2019 12:00 103 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 03 Nov 2019 18:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 04 Nov 2019 00:00 212 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 04 Nov 2019 06:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 04 Nov 2019 12:00 139 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 25 04 Nov 2019 18:00 85 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 05 Nov 2019 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
Blue 27 05 Nov 2019 06:00 124 - - - - - - -
Blue 28 05 Nov 2019 12:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 29 05 Nov 2019 18:00 157 - - - - - - -
Blue 30 06 Nov 2019 00:00 45 - - - - - - -
Blue 31 06 Nov 2019 06:00 61 - - - - - - -
Blue 32 06 Nov 2019 12:00 644 1.7 million
- - - Bangladesh, India, Burma, Thailand




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Shwe-o, Myanmar. This height is estimated for 06 Nov 2019 14:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Nov 2019 14:00 Shwe-o Myanmar  0.3
06 Nov 2019 14:00 Alanbya Myanmar  0.3
06 Nov 2019 14:00 Mokkamu Myanmar  0.3
06 Nov 2019 14:00 Boyagyi Myanmar  0.3
06 Nov 2019 14:00 Kyaikto Myanmar  0.3
06 Nov 2019 14:00 Kyaikpi Myanmar  0.3
06 Nov 2019 14:00 Kawbein Myanmar  0.3
06 Nov 2019 14:00 Damathat Myanmar  0.3
06 Nov 2019 14:15 Shangyaung Myanmar  0.3
06 Nov 2019 14:15 Mahameik Myanmar  0.3
06 Nov 2019 14:15 Pauktaw Myanmar  0.3
06 Nov 2019 14:15 Zokali Myanmar  0.3
06 Nov 2019 14:15 Taungxun Myanmar  0.3
06 Nov 2019 13:45 Thamaseikta Myanmar  0.3
06 Nov 2019 14:30 Taunggyi Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 14:30 Budin Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 14:30 Kadaik Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 14:30 Donwun Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 14:30 Kangyisu Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 12:45 Tanbingyaung Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 13:00 Khindan Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 14:45 Darein Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 14:45 Paung Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:30 Munaing Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:30 Tagukana Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:30 Kawpamagon Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 13:45 Pyapon Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 13:45 Apaung Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 13:45 Akechaungwa Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 13:45 Ase Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 13:30 Tawgyaik Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 14:15 Ale-ywa Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:30 Kwanhla Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:15 Kyaikkami Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:15 Kayindaung Myanmar  0.2
06 Nov 2019 15:00 Wagaru Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 15:00 Wegalaung Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 15:00 Karokpi Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 15:30 Kakinada India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 13:15 Karen India  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:30 Dawnvein Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 15:00 Anin Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 14:30 Saluzeik Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 14:30 Thingangyi Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 14:30 Seikkyi Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 14:30 Thingangon Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 14:30 Kyauktazi Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:45 Alandaing Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 12:45 Hseikma Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 14:00 Thinbawzeik Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 14:15 Kadonkani Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 14:15 Yegyawgyi Myanmar  0.1
06 Nov 2019 14:15 Ama Myanmar  0.1