Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BATSIRAI-22
in Madagascar
31 Jan 2022 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mauritius, Reunion
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 140 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (31 Jan 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 140 km/h 0.2 m 281 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 227 km/h 0.8 m 2013 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Jan 2022 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMauritius, Reunion1,123,997
+
Mauritius436,789 
Reunion687,208 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 27 Jan 2022 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 27 Jan 2022 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 27 Jan 2022 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 27 Jan 2022 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 28 Jan 2022 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 28 Jan 2022 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 28 Jan 2022 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 28 Jan 2022 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 29 Jan 2022 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 29 Jan 2022 06:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 29 Jan 2022 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 29 Jan 2022 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 30 Jan 2022 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 30 Jan 2022 06:00 40 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 30 Jan 2022 12:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 30 Jan 2022 18:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 31 Jan 2022 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 31 Jan 2022 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 31 Jan 2022 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 31 Jan 2022 18:00 184 -
- - - - - Mauritius, Reunion
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

2013 mm

Up to 730 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Jan 2022 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
more than 1000 mmReunion599 
750-1000 mmReunion2,005 
500-750 mmReunion2,613 
250-500 mmMauritius, Reunion55,223
+
Mauritius23,637 
Reunion31,586 
100-250 mmMauritius, Reunion665,995
+
Mauritius380,422 
Reunion285,573 
50-100 mmMauritius, Reunion811,676
+
Mauritius527,168 
Reunion284,508 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 27 Jan 2022 00:00 258 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 27 Jan 2022 06:00 91 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 27 Jan 2022 12:00 120 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 27 Jan 2022 18:00 370 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 28 Jan 2022 00:00 150 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 28 Jan 2022 06:00 54 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 28 Jan 2022 12:00 47 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 28 Jan 2022 18:00 112 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 29 Jan 2022 00:00 190 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 29 Jan 2022 06:00 319 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 29 Jan 2022 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 29 Jan 2022 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 30 Jan 2022 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 30 Jan 2022 06:00 1 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 30 Jan 2022 12:00 2 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 30 Jan 2022 18:00 4 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 31 Jan 2022 00:00 23 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 31 Jan 2022 06:00 48 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 31 Jan 2022 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 31 Jan 2022 18:00 1160 730 thousand
Mauritius, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Ampombilava, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 31 Jan 2022 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 Jan 2022 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
31 Jan 2022 21:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.2
31 Jan 2022 21:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.2
31 Jan 2022 21:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.2
31 Jan 2022 21:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.2
31 Jan 2022 21:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
31 Jan 2022 21:00 Ambolikapika Madagascar  0.2
31 Jan 2022 21:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.2
31 Jan 2022 21:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
31 Jan 2022 21:00 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.2
31 Jan 2022 21:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.2
31 Jan 2022 21:00 Beira Mozambique  0.2
31 Jan 2022 21:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.2
31 Jan 2022 21:00 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.2
31 Jan 2022 21:00 Ambohimena Madagascar  0.2
31 Jan 2022 20:30 Manica Mozambique  0.2
31 Jan 2022 20:30 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
31 Jan 2022 20:45 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.2
31 Jan 2022 20:00 Ambanhe Mozambique  0.2
31 Jan 2022 20:00 Ampara Mozambique  0.2
31 Jan 2022 20:45 Metambanhe Mozambique  0.2
31 Jan 2022 20:45 Divinhe Mozambique  0.2
31 Jan 2022 20:45 Chiloane Mozambique  0.2
31 Jan 2022 21:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.2
31 Jan 2022 20:45 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 20:45 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 20:45 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 20:15 Magawa Tanzania  0.1
31 Jan 2022 20:15 Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
31 Jan 2022 20:15 Kisiju Tanzania  0.1
31 Jan 2022 20:15 Mchungu Tanzania  0.1
31 Jan 2022 20:15 Kiombani Tanzania  0.1
31 Jan 2022 21:15 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 21:15 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 21:15 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 21:15 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 21:15 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 20:45 Vila Luisa Mozambique  0.1
31 Jan 2022 20:45 D'lhelo Mozambique  0.1
31 Jan 2022 20:45 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
31 Jan 2022 23:45 Somanga Tanzania  0.1
31 Jan 2022 23:45 Pombwe Tanzania  0.1
31 Jan 2022 23:45 Jaja Tanzania  0.1
31 Jan 2022 20:30 Nhangau Mozambique  0.1
31 Jan 2022 20:30 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.1
31 Jan 2022 20:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.1
31 Jan 2022 20:30 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 20:30 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 19:30 Maziba Mozambique  0.1
31 Jan 2022 19:30 Aiai Mozambique  0.1
31 Jan 2022 19:30 Cimbene Mozambique  0.1
31 Jan 2022 19:30 Canhamba Mozambique  0.1
31 Jan 2022 20:30 Ampasimena Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 20:30 Dzamandzar Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 21:15 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.1
31 Jan 2022 21:15 Mulia Mozambique  0.1
31 Jan 2022 21:15 Barra Mozambique  0.1
31 Jan 2022 20:00 Nyambati Tanzania  0.1
31 Jan 2022 20:00 Salale Tanzania  0.1
31 Jan 2022 21:15 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
31 Jan 2022 23:45 Voloina Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 23:45 Manambia Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 23:45 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 23:45 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 23:45 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 23:45 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 23:30 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 23:30 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 18:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 18:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 18:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 18:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 18:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 18:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 18:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1
31 Jan 2022 21:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
31 Jan 2022 21:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
31 Jan 2022 21:15 Amado Mozambique  0.1
31 Jan 2022 21:15 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1