Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BATSIRAI-22
in Madagascar
09 Feb 2022 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mauritius, Madagascar, Reunion
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 216 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.2 m (30 Jan 09:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 216 km/h 1.2 m 889 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 216 km/h 1.2 m 889 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2022 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMauritius, Madagascar, Reunion1,960,005
+
Mauritius1,115,430 
Madagascar280,870 
Reunion563,704 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 27 Jan 2022 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 27 Jan 2022 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 27 Jan 2022 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 27 Jan 2022 18:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 28 Jan 2022 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 28 Jan 2022 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 28 Jan 2022 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 28 Jan 2022 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 29 Jan 2022 00:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 29 Jan 2022 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 29 Jan 2022 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 29 Jan 2022 18:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 30 Jan 2022 00:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 30 Jan 2022 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 30 Jan 2022 12:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 30 Jan 2022 18:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 31 Jan 2022 00:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 31 Jan 2022 06:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 31 Jan 2022 12:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 31 Jan 2022 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 01 Feb 2022 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 01 Feb 2022 06:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 01 Feb 2022 12:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 01 Feb 2022 18:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 25 02 Feb 2022 00:00 187 -
- - - - - Mauritius
GREEN 26 02 Feb 2022 06:00 198 -
- - - - - Mauritius, Reunion
GREEN 27 02 Feb 2022 12:00 187 -
- - - - - Mauritius, Reunion
GREEN 28 02 Feb 2022 18:00 205 -
- - - - - Mauritius, Reunion
GREEN 29 03 Feb 2022 00:00 216 -
- - - - - Mauritius, Reunion
GREEN 30 03 Feb 2022 06:00 184 -
- - - - - Mauritius, Reunion
GREEN 31 03 Feb 2022 12:00 184 -
- - - - - Reunion
GREEN 32 03 Feb 2022 18:00 158 -
- - - - - Reunion
GREEN 33 04 Feb 2022 00:00 151 -
- - - - - Reunion
GREEN 34 04 Feb 2022 06:00 155 -
- - - - - Reunion
GREEN 35 04 Feb 2022 12:00 162 -
- - - - - Reunion
GREEN 36 04 Feb 2022 18:00 162 -
- - - - - Reunion
GREEN 37 05 Feb 2022 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 38 05 Feb 2022 06:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 39 05 Feb 2022 12:00 158 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 40 05 Feb 2022 18:00 140 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 41 06 Feb 2022 00:00 86 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 42 06 Feb 2022 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 43 06 Feb 2022 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 44 06 Feb 2022 18:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 45 07 Feb 2022 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 46 07 Feb 2022 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 47 07 Feb 2022 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 48 07 Feb 2022 18:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 49 08 Feb 2022 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 50 08 Feb 2022 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 51 08 Feb 2022 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 52 08 Feb 2022 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 53 09 Feb 2022 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall

889 mm

Up to 34.9 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2022 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmReunion, Madagascar317,060
+
Madagascar310,866 
Reunion6,193 
250-500 mmMozambique, Madagascar, Reunion3,731,326
+
Mozambique13,624 
Madagascar3,143,556 
Reunion574,145 
100-250 mmMalawi, Tanzania, Mozambique, Zambia, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, Reunion30,822,729
+
Malawi12,924,822 
Tanzania626,270 
Mozambique8,928,902 
Zambia380,119 
Comoros403,973 
Madagascar6,574,200 
Mayotte240,014 
Zimbabwe1,077 
Mauritius462,533 
Reunion280,814 
50-100 mmComoros, Mozambique, Madagascar, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Mauritius16,489,791
+
Malawi3,345,324 
Mozambique5,928,085 
Comoros384,500 
Madagascar6,021,340 
Zimbabwe133 
Mauritius810,406 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 27 Jan 2022 00:00 107 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 27 Jan 2022 06:00 75 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 27 Jan 2022 12:00 93 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 27 Jan 2022 18:00 106 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 28 Jan 2022 00:00 67 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 28 Jan 2022 06:00 96 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 28 Jan 2022 12:00 82 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 28 Jan 2022 18:00 139 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 29 Jan 2022 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 29 Jan 2022 06:00 131 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 11 29 Jan 2022 12:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 29 Jan 2022 18:00 187 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 30 Jan 2022 00:00 121 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 30 Jan 2022 06:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 30 Jan 2022 12:00 167 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 30 Jan 2022 18:00 278 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 31 Jan 2022 00:00 305 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 31 Jan 2022 06:00 286 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 31 Jan 2022 12:00 312 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 31 Jan 2022 18:00 113 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 01 Feb 2022 00:00 180 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 01 Feb 2022 06:00 103 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 01 Feb 2022 12:00 163 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 01 Feb 2022 18:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 02 Feb 2022 00:00 222 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 02 Feb 2022 06:00 190 - - - - - - -
Blue 27 02 Feb 2022 12:00 207 - - - - - - -
Blue 28 02 Feb 2022 18:00 241 - - - - - - -
Blue 29 03 Feb 2022 00:00 236 -
- - - - - Reunion
Blue 30 03 Feb 2022 06:00 225 10 thousand
- - - - Reunion
Blue 31 03 Feb 2022 12:00 214 -
- - - - - Reunion
Blue 32 03 Feb 2022 18:00 155 -
- - - - - Reunion
Blue 33 04 Feb 2022 00:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 34 04 Feb 2022 06:00 228 - - - - - - -
Blue 35 04 Feb 2022 12:00 188 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 36 04 Feb 2022 18:00 142 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 37 05 Feb 2022 00:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 38 05 Feb 2022 06:00 125 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 39 05 Feb 2022 12:00 147 1.1 million
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 40 05 Feb 2022 18:00 193 1.3 million
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 41 06 Feb 2022 00:00 93 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 42 06 Feb 2022 06:00 53 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 43 06 Feb 2022 12:00 35 - - - - - - -
Blue 44 06 Feb 2022 18:00 68 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 45 07 Feb 2022 00:00 59 - - - - - - -
Blue 46 07 Feb 2022 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
Blue 47 07 Feb 2022 12:00 219 - - - - - - -
Blue 48 07 Feb 2022 18:00 171 - - - - - - -
Blue 49 08 Feb 2022 00:00 145 - - - - - - -
Blue 50 08 Feb 2022 06:00 34 - - - - - - -
Blue 51 08 Feb 2022 12:00 52 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 52 08 Feb 2022 18:00 43 - - - - - - -
Blue 53 09 Feb 2022 00:00 258 350 thousand
- - - - Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia, Mozambique, Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1.2 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2022 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
1.0 - 2.0 mMadagascar17,051 
0.5 - 1.0 mMadagascar75,487 
0.25 - 0.5 mMadagascar, Mozambique256,374
+
Madagascar186,657 
Mozambique69,717 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2022 00:00 UTC