Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JASMINE-22
in Madagascar
27 Apr 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone JASMINE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 94 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (24 Apr 05:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 94 km/h 0.6 m 437 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 94 km/h 0.6 m 437 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

94 km/h

Up to 220 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Apr 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar216,740 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 23 Apr 2022 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 24 Apr 2022 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 24 Apr 2022 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 25 Apr 2022 00:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 25 Apr 2022 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 26 Apr 2022 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 26 Apr 2022 12:00 112 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 8 27 Apr 2022 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 27 Apr 2022 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Apr 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmTanzania, Malawi40,744
+
Tanzania39,727 
Malawi1,017 
100-250 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya, Burundi, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar4,619,326
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo329,349 
Rwanda396,000 
Tanzania2,188,928 
Kenya9,796 
Burundi1,401,425 
Zambia53 
Malawi201,136 
Mozambique2,259 
Madagascar90,378 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya, Burundi, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Reunion, South Africa, Lesotho38,840,701
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo7,228,843 
Rwanda2,693,563 
Tanzania19,632,855 
Kenya565,166 
Burundi4,189,872 
Zambia350,669 
Malawi429,724 
Mozambique2,060,657 
Comoros190,278 
Madagascar1,181,166 
Reunion2,018 
South Africa111,291 
Lesotho204,594 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 23 Apr 2022 12:00 300 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 2 24 Apr 2022 00:00 180 -
- - - - - Tanzania, Democratic Republic of the Congo
Blue 3 24 Apr 2022 12:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 25 Apr 2022 00:00 247 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 25 Apr 2022 12:00 249 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 26 Apr 2022 00:00 189 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 26 Apr 2022 12:00 163 70 thousand
- - - - Tanzania, Malawi, Madagascar
Blue 8 27 Apr 2022 00:00 80 -
- - - - - Malawi, Tanzania
Blue 9 27 Apr 2022 12:00 352 210 thousand
- - - - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya, Burundi, Malawi, Comoros




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Apr 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.5 - 1.0 mMadagascar, Mozambique83,316
+
Madagascar15,470 
Mozambique67,846 
0.25 - 0.5 mTanzania, Madagascar, Mozambique352,217
+
Tanzania119,731 
Madagascar135,851 
Mozambique96,635 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 27 Apr 2022 12:00 UTC