Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for AGATHA-22
in Mexico
01 Jun 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone AGATHA-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico, Cuba
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 184 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.9 m (03 Jun 16:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 184 km/h 0.9 m 700 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 184 km/h 0.9 m 700 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Jun 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico, Cuba141,544
+
United States45,803 
Mexico90,797 
Cuba4,943 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 28 May 2022 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 2 28 May 2022 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 28 May 2022 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 28 May 2022 18:00 115 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 5 29 May 2022 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 6 29 May 2022 06:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 29 May 2022 12:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 29 May 2022 18:00 133 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 9 30 May 2022 00:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 30 May 2022 06:00 148 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 11 30 May 2022 12:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 30 May 2022 18:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 31 May 2022 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 31 May 2022 06:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 31 May 2022 12:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 31 May 2022 18:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 01 Jun 2022 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 01 Jun 2022 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 01 Jun 2022 12:00 79 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico, Cuba
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall

700 mm

Up to 26.8 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Jun 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmCuba, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala1,043,575
+
Mexico1,179 
Cuba112,366 
Belize2,103 
Guatemala927,925 
100-250 mmUnited States, Cuba, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama25,734,573
+
United States473,561 
Mexico5,601,587 
Cuba4,146,372 
Belize308,724 
Guatemala6,734,596 
Honduras2,701,776 
Nicaragua986,361 
El Salvador918 
Costa Rica4,069,444 
Panama711,230 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Cuba, Cayman Islands, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama35,101,132
+
United States803,119 
Mexico11,382,473 
Cuba315,994 
Cayman Islands57,668 
Belize49,893 
Guatemala8,302,739 
Honduras4,619,813 
Nicaragua4,362,482 
El Salvador4,115,339 
Colombia5,315 
Costa Rica580,011 
Panama506,281 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 28 May 2022 00:00 168 -
- - - - - Guatemala
Blue 2 28 May 2022 06:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 28 May 2022 12:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 28 May 2022 18:00 129 -
- - - - - Costa Rica
Blue 5 29 May 2022 00:00 153 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 29 May 2022 06:00 223 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 29 May 2022 12:00 155 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 29 May 2022 18:00 192 -
- - - - - United States, Cuba
Blue 9 30 May 2022 00:00 218 -
- - - - - Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica
Blue 10 30 May 2022 06:00 211 -
- - - - - Honduras, Nicaragua
Blue 11 30 May 2022 12:00 273 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 30 May 2022 18:00 147 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 13 31 May 2022 00:00 114 6 thousand
- - - - Mexico, Guatemala
Blue 14 31 May 2022 06:00 122 -
- - - - - Mexico, Belize
Blue 15 31 May 2022 12:00 177 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 31 May 2022 18:00 139 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 17 01 Jun 2022 00:00 136 -
- - - - - Belize, Mexico, Guatemala
Blue 18 01 Jun 2022 06:00 161 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 19 01 Jun 2022 12:00 383 2.8 million
- - - United States, Mexico, Cuba, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.9 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Jun 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.5 - 1.0 mMexico, United States, Cuba20,077
+
Mexico3,340 
Cuba16,736 
0.25 - 0.5 mMexico, United States, Panama65,041
+
Mexico2,157 
United States62,873 
Panama10 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 01 Jun 2022 12:00 UTC