Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BLAS-22
in Mexico
18 Jun 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BLAS-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 72 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (19 Jun 05:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 72 km/h 0.4 m 116 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 72 km/h 0.5 m 624 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

72 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 18 Jun 2022 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 13 Jun 2022 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 14 Jun 2022 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 14 Jun 2022 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 15 Jun 2022 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 15 Jun 2022 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 16 Jun 2022 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 16 Jun 2022 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 17 Jun 2022 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 17 Jun 2022 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 18 Jun 2022 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 18 Jun 2022 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Jun 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador1,731,598
+
Mexico1,073,949 
Belize143,499 
Guatemala513,307 
Honduras484 
El Salvador357 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador24,300,686
+
Mexico11,604,852 
Belize175,900 
Guatemala11,517,074 
Honduras581,146 
El Salvador421,711 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 13 Jun 2022 12:00 100 -
- - - - - Honduras, El Salvador
Blue 2 14 Jun 2022 00:00 151 3 thousand
- - - - Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua
Blue 3 14 Jun 2022 12:00 169 -
- - - - - Guatemala, Honduras
Blue 4 15 Jun 2022 00:00 218 3 thousand
- - - - Mexico, Guatemala
Blue 5 15 Jun 2022 12:00 241 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 6 16 Jun 2022 00:00 359 110 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 7 16 Jun 2022 12:00 210 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 8 17 Jun 2022 00:00 208 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 17 Jun 2022 12:00 218 -
- - - - - Mexico, Guatemala
Blue 10 18 Jun 2022 00:00 204 -
- - - - - Guatemala, Mexico
Blue 11 18 Jun 2022 12:00 295 1.7 million
- - - - United States, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

3.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  3.8m in Quintana Roo, Vigia Chico, Mexico. This height is estimated for 16/06/2022 11:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Jun 2022 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
16/06/2022 11:00 Quintana Roo, Vigia Chico Mexico  3.8
16/06/2022 11:00 Quintana Roo, Calderita Mexico  0.6
16/06/2022 11:00 Belize, Belize City Belize  0.6
16/06/2022 09:00 Corozal, Corozal Belize  0.6
16/06/2022 12:00 Toledo, Cattle Landing Belize  0.6
16/06/2022 11:00 Corozal, Santeneja Belize  0.6
16/06/2022 12:00 Corozal, Ambergris Cay San Pedro Belize  0.6
16/06/2022 12:00 Corozal, Ambergris Cay Bacalar Chico Belize  0.6
16/06/2022 12:00 Quintana Roo, Majahual Mexico  0.6
16/06/2022 12:00 Quintana Roo, El Placer Mexico  0.6
15/06/2022 23:00 Louisiana, North Side United States  0.3
15/06/2022 23:00 Louisiana, English Lookout United States  0.3
14/06/2022 02:00 Sonora, La Choya Mexico  0.2
16/06/2022 00:00 Texas, North Beach United States  0.2
15/06/2022 21:00 Mississippi, Bay St Louis United States  0.2
15/06/2022 21:00 Mississippi, Henderson Point United States  0.2
15/06/2022 23:00 Campeche, Isla del Carmen Paso Real Mexico  0.2
16/06/2022 02:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquite Mexico  0.2
15/06/2022 21:00 Mississippi, Pass Christian United States  0.2
15/06/2022 21:00 Mississippi, White Harbor United States  0.2
16/06/2022 07:00 Louisiana, Cypremort Point United States  0.2
16/06/2022 04:00 Texas, El Campo Club Community United States  0.2
16/06/2022 01:00 Texas, Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
14/06/2022 22:00 Baja California Sur, Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
16/06/2022 05:00 Louisiana, Cameron United States  0.2
15/06/2022 20:00 Mississippi, Mississippi City United States  0.2
15/06/2022 20:00 Mississippi, Handsboro United States  0.2
16/06/2022 08:00 Texas, Beach City United States  0.2
16/06/2022 04:00 Texas, Port Ingleside United States  0.2
16/06/2022 08:00 Texas, Cedar Point United States  0.2
15/06/2022 21:00 Veracruz, Buen Pais Mexico  0.2
16/06/2022 08:00 Texas, Smith Point United States  0.2
15/06/2022 19:00 Mississippi, Edgewater Park United States  0.2
15/06/2022 19:00 Mississippi, Beauvoir United States  0.2
16/06/2022 07:00 Texas, Seabrook United States  0.2
14/06/2022 21:00 Valle, Puerto Grande Honduras  0.2
14/06/2022 21:00 Valle, El Moray Honduras  0.2
14/06/2022 04:00 Baja California, Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
14/06/2022 14:00 Chiapas, Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.2
16/06/2022 05:00 Texas, Caplen United States  0.2
16/06/2022 05:00 Texas, Gilchrist United States  0.2
16/06/2022 00:00 Tamaulipas, El Porvenir Mexico  0.2
16/06/2022 12:00 Veracruz, Anton Lizardo Mexico  0.2
16/06/2022 05:00 Texas, Crystal Beach United States  0.2
16/06/2022 05:00 Texas, Patton United States  0.2
16/06/2022 12:00 Veracruz, Veracruz Mexico  0.2
14/06/2022 22:00 Valle, El Ajustillo Honduras  0.2
14/06/2022 22:00 Valle, Las Piletas Honduras  0.2
14/06/2022 22:00 Alabama, Bellefontaine United States  0.2
16/06/2022 01:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquital Mexico  0.2
16/06/2022 03:00 Texas, Galveston Island Jamaica Beach United States  0.2
16/06/2022 04:00 Louisiana, Cocodrie United States  0.2
13/06/2022 23:00 Escuintla, El Naranjo Guatemala  0.2
16/06/2022 11:00 Veracruz, La Guadalupe Mexico  0.2
16/06/2022 03:00 Texas, Galveston Island Bay Harbor United States  0.1
16/06/2022 11:00 Veracruz, Monte Gordo Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 11:00 Veracruz, Tecolutla Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 08:00 Sonora, Atanacio Mexico  0.1
14/06/2022 05:00 Escuintla, Sipacate Guatemala  0.1
16/06/2022 11:00 Veracruz, El Laurel Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 03:00 Louisiana, Medicant Island Bassa Bassa United States  0.1
15/06/2022 18:00 Sinaloa, Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 06:00 Sonora, Guaymas Mexico  0.1
14/06/2022 22:00 Valle, Gualora Honduras  0.1
15/06/2022 23:00 Tamaulipas, Las Guayabas Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 03:00 Texas, Quintana United States  0.1
16/06/2022 08:00 Sonora, San Jose Mexico  0.1
15/06/2022 17:00 Michoacan de Ocampo, Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.1
13/06/2022 19:00 Baja California Sur, San Carlos Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 06:00 Baja California Sur, Tripui Mexico  0.1
15/06/2022 23:00 Louisiana, West Point United States  0.1
16/06/2022 02:00 Oaxaca, Bajos de Chila Mexico  0.1
15/06/2022 22:00 Baja California Sur, Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
15/06/2022 22:00 Baja California Sur, Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
14/06/2022 23:00 Oaxaca, Garrapateras Mexico  0.1
14/06/2022 22:00 Alabama, Bayleys Corner United States  0.1
14/06/2022 22:00 Alabama, Mon Louis United States  0.1
14/06/2022 23:00 Oaxaca, Majada Villalobos Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 08:00 Baja California Sur, Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 02:00 Oaxaca, Puerto Angel Mexico  0.1
14/06/2022 22:00 Escuintla, La Barrita Guatemala  0.1
16/06/2022 01:00 Baja California Sur, San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 08:00 Baja California Sur, El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 11:00 Baja California Sur, El Tule Mexico  0.1
14/06/2022 22:00 Escuintla, San Jose Guatemala  0.1
16/06/2022 09:00 Baja California Sur, Isla Cedros Cedros Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 07:00 California, Santa Catalina Island Avalon United States  0.1
16/06/2022 10:00 Escuintla, Iztapa Guatemala  0.1
14/06/2022 07:00 Santa Rosa, Papaturro Guatemala  0.1
16/06/2022 07:00 California, Azure Vista United States  0.1
16/06/2022 07:00 California, Fort Rosecrans United States  0.1
16/06/2022 09:00 Baja California Sur, Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 00:00 Louisiana, Breton United States  0.1
16/06/2022 09:00 Baja California Sur, Isla Natividad Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 03:00 Louisiana, Cheniere Caminada United States  0.1
16/06/2022 03:00 Louisiana, Grand Isle United States  0.1
15/06/2022 20:00 Alabama, Heron Bay United States  0.1
15/06/2022 20:00 Alabama, Alabama Port United States  0.1
16/06/2022 07:00 Louisiana, Port Fourchon United States  0.1
16/06/2022 06:00 Louisiana, Port Eads United States  0.1
16/06/2022 04:00 Alabama, Dauphin Island Dauphin Island United States  0.1
16/06/2022 08:00 Alabama, Dauphin Island Fort Gaines United States  0.1
16/06/2022 07:00 Alabama, Fort Morgan United States  0.1
13/06/2022 23:00 Louisiana, Chef Menteur United States  0.1
13/06/2022 22:00 Louisiana, South Point United States  0.0