Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BLAS-22
in Mexico
15 Jun 2022 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BLAS-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 119 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (17 Jun 23:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 119 km/h 0.5 m 214 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 162 km/h 0.5 m 882 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Jun 2022 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States3,728 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 14 Jun 2022 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 14 Jun 2022 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 14 Jun 2022 18:00 86 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 4 15 Jun 2022 00:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 15 Jun 2022 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 15 Jun 2022 12:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 15 Jun 2022 18:00 137 -
- - - - - United States
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

882 mm

Up to Few people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Jun 2022 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico595 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala1,226,279
+
United States3,505 
Mexico1,035,962 
Belize17,585 
Guatemala169,226 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 14 Jun 2022 06:00 208 Few people
- - - - Nicaragua
Blue 2 14 Jun 2022 12:00 118 -
- - - - - El Salvador
Blue 3 14 Jun 2022 18:00 84 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 15 Jun 2022 00:00 147 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 5 15 Jun 2022 06:00 133 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 6 15 Jun 2022 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 15 Jun 2022 18:00 718 Few people
- - - - United States, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Sonora, La Choya, Mexico. This height is estimated for 16/06/2022 11:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Jun 2022 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
16/06/2022 11:00 Sonora, La Choya Mexico  0.3
14/06/2022 13:00 Campeche, Isla del Carmen Paso Real Mexico  0.2
15/06/2022 08:00 Baja California Sur, Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
17/06/2022 02:00 Corozal, Corozal Belize  0.2
17/06/2022 03:00 Quintana Roo, Calderita Mexico  0.2
16/06/2022 14:00 Louisiana, Cameron United States  0.2
17/06/2022 02:00 Corozal, Santeneja Belize  0.2
16/06/2022 14:00 Texas, El Campo Club Community United States  0.2
16/06/2022 10:00 Baja California, Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
16/06/2022 22:00 Corozal, Ambergris Cay Bacalar Chico Belize  0.2
17/06/2022 06:00 Toledo, Cattle Landing Belize  0.2
16/06/2022 23:00 Quintana Roo, Majahual Mexico  0.2
16/06/2022 22:00 Corozal, Ambergris Cay San Pedro Belize  0.2
16/06/2022 05:00 Belize, Belize City Belize  0.2
16/06/2022 18:00 Texas, Beach City United States  0.2
16/06/2022 19:00 Louisiana, Cypremort Point United States  0.2
16/06/2022 13:00 Texas, Caplen United States  0.2
16/06/2022 13:00 Texas, Gilchrist United States  0.2
14/06/2022 15:00 Texas, North Beach United States  0.2
16/06/2022 14:00 Texas, Crystal Beach United States  0.2
16/06/2022 14:00 Texas, Patton United States  0.2
16/06/2022 17:00 Texas, Cedar Point United States  0.2
16/06/2022 17:00 Texas, Smith Point United States  0.2
16/06/2022 19:00 Texas, Seabrook United States  0.2
16/06/2022 15:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
15/06/2022 21:00 Sonora, Atanacio Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 12:00 Alabama, Bellefontaine United States  0.1
17/06/2022 04:00 Chiapas, Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.1
15/06/2022 16:00 Sonora, San Jose Mexico  0.1
14/06/2022 17:00 Texas, Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.1
16/06/2022 15:00 Sonora, Guaymas Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 15:00 Texas, Galveston Island Jamaica Beach United States  0.1
14/06/2022 16:00 Sinaloa, Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
14/06/2022 17:00 Texas, Port Ingleside United States  0.1
15/06/2022 15:00 Baja California Sur, Tripui Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 15:00 Texas, Galveston Island Bay Harbor United States  0.1
15/06/2022 07:00 Baja California Sur, San Carlos Mexico  0.1
15/06/2022 15:00 Baja California Sur, Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
15/06/2022 15:00 Baja California Sur, Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 12:00 Alabama, Bayleys Corner United States  0.1
16/06/2022 12:00 Alabama, Mon Louis United States  0.1
15/06/2022 14:00 Baja California Sur, Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
15/06/2022 15:00 Baja California Sur, El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
15/06/2022 15:00 Baja California Sur, San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
14/06/2022 09:00 Michoacan de Ocampo, Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.1
14/06/2022 10:00 Escuintla, Sipacate Guatemala  0.1
15/06/2022 15:00 Baja California Sur, El Tule Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 09:00 Veracruz, Buen Pais Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 04:00 Escuintla, El Naranjo Guatemala  0.1
16/06/2022 15:00 Louisiana, Cocodrie United States  0.1
16/06/2022 13:00 Texas, Quintana United States  0.1
17/06/2022 05:00 Escuintla, La Barrita Guatemala  0.1
17/06/2022 06:00 Escuintla, San Jose Guatemala  0.1
17/06/2022 00:00 Oaxaca, Majada Villalobos Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 11:00 Veracruz, Anton Lizardo Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 14:00 Tamaulipas, El Porvenir Mexico  0.1
15/06/2022 08:00 Baja California Sur, Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 10:00 Veracruz, Veracruz Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 04:00 Santa Rosa, Papaturro Guatemala  0.1
17/06/2022 06:00 Escuintla, Iztapa Guatemala  0.1
16/06/2022 12:00 Alabama, Heron Bay United States  0.1
16/06/2022 12:00 Alabama, Alabama Port United States  0.1
16/06/2022 14:00 Mississippi, Edgewater Park United States  0.1
16/06/2022 14:00 Mississippi, Beauvoir United States  0.1
15/06/2022 16:00 Baja California Sur, Isla Cedros Cedros Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 13:00 Tamaulipas, Las Guayabas Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 13:00 Mississippi, Mississippi City United States  0.1
16/06/2022 13:00 Mississippi, Handsboro United States  0.1
16/06/2022 15:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 10:00 Veracruz, La Guadalupe Mexico  0.1