Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BLAS-22
in Mexico
16 Jun 2022 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BLAS-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 122 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (17 Jun 23:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 122 km/h 0.5 m 203 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 162 km/h 0.5 m 882 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Jun 2022 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States00
+

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 14 Jun 2022 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 14 Jun 2022 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 14 Jun 2022 18:00 86 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 4 15 Jun 2022 00:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 15 Jun 2022 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 15 Jun 2022 12:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 15 Jun 2022 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 16 Jun 2022 00:00 130 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 9 16 Jun 2022 06:00 148 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall

882 mm

Up to 80 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Jun 2022 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico, Honduras84,250
+
Mexico74,918 
Honduras9,331 
50-100 mmMexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras4,372,190
+
Mexico2,251,962 
Belize300,397 
Guatemala991,474 
Honduras828,355 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 14 Jun 2022 06:00 208 Few people
- - - - Nicaragua
Blue 2 14 Jun 2022 12:00 118 -
- - - - - El Salvador
Blue 3 14 Jun 2022 18:00 84 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 15 Jun 2022 00:00 147 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 5 15 Jun 2022 06:00 133 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 6 15 Jun 2022 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 15 Jun 2022 18:00 214 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 16 Jun 2022 00:00 221 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 9 16 Jun 2022 06:00 1066 80 thousand
- - - - Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Sonora, La Choya, Mexico. This height is estimated for 15/06/2022 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 Jun 2022 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
15/06/2022 23:00 Sonora, La Choya Mexico  0.2
15/06/2022 00:00 Campeche, Isla del Carmen Paso Real Mexico  0.2
17/06/2022 02:00 Corozal, Corozal Belize  0.2
17/06/2022 00:00 Toledo, Cattle Landing Belize  0.2
17/06/2022 01:00 Quintana Roo, Calderita Mexico  0.2
17/06/2022 03:00 Louisiana, Cameron United States  0.2
17/06/2022 04:00 Belize, Belize City Belize  0.2
16/06/2022 10:00 Corozal, Santeneja Belize  0.2
15/06/2022 22:00 Baja California, Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
17/06/2022 06:00 Corozal, Ambergris Cay San Pedro Belize  0.2
17/06/2022 06:00 Corozal, Ambergris Cay Bacalar Chico Belize  0.2
16/06/2022 16:00 Quintana Roo, Majahual Mexico  0.2
16/06/2022 06:00 Louisiana, Cypremort Point United States  0.2
14/06/2022 22:00 Baja California Sur, Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
17/06/2022 01:00 Texas, North Beach United States  0.2
17/06/2022 04:00 Louisiana, Cheniere Caminada United States  0.2
17/06/2022 04:00 Louisiana, Grand Isle United States  0.2
16/06/2022 06:00 Texas, Beach City United States  0.2
16/06/2022 05:00 Texas, Cedar Point United States  0.2
16/06/2022 05:00 Texas, Seabrook United States  0.2
16/06/2022 01:00 Texas, Caplen United States  0.2
16/06/2022 01:00 Texas, Gilchrist United States  0.2
14/06/2022 08:00 Michoacan de Ocampo, Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 02:00 Texas, El Campo Club Community United States  0.1
16/06/2022 01:00 Texas, Crystal Beach United States  0.1
16/06/2022 01:00 Texas, Patton United States  0.1
15/06/2022 03:00 Sonora, Atanacio Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 05:00 Texas, Smith Point United States  0.1
16/06/2022 22:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 02:00 Chiapas, Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 04:00 Texas, Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.1
15/06/2022 03:00 Sonora, San Jose Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 01:00 Sonora, Guaymas Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 01:00 Mississippi, Edgewater Park United States  0.1
17/06/2022 01:00 Mississippi, Beauvoir United States  0.1
17/06/2022 00:00 Alabama, Bellefontaine United States  0.1
17/06/2022 04:00 Louisiana, Port Fourchon United States  0.1
16/06/2022 04:00 Texas, Port Ingleside United States  0.1
17/06/2022 05:00 Louisiana, Medicant Island Bassa Bassa United States  0.1
16/06/2022 02:00 Texas, Galveston Island Jamaica Beach United States  0.1
17/06/2022 01:00 Mississippi, Mississippi City United States  0.1
17/06/2022 01:00 Mississippi, Handsboro United States  0.1
16/06/2022 23:00 Louisiana, Cocodrie United States  0.1
15/06/2022 04:00 Baja California Sur, Tripui Mexico  0.1
14/06/2022 09:00 Baja California Sur, San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 00:00 Alabama, Bayleys Corner United States  0.1
17/06/2022 00:00 Alabama, Mon Louis United States  0.1
17/06/2022 02:00 Escuintla, Sipacate Guatemala  0.1
14/06/2022 19:00 Sinaloa, Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 23:00 Louisiana, North Side United States  0.1
16/06/2022 23:00 Louisiana, English Lookout United States  0.1
16/06/2022 21:00 Veracruz, Buen Pais Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 02:00 Escuintla, El Naranjo Guatemala  0.1
17/06/2022 04:00 Alabama, Heron Bay United States  0.1
17/06/2022 04:00 Alabama, Alabama Port United States  0.1
16/06/2022 02:00 Texas, Galveston Island Bay Harbor United States  0.1
14/06/2022 19:00 Baja California Sur, San Carlos Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 05:00 Escuintla, La Barrita Guatemala  0.1
17/06/2022 00:00 Mississippi, Pass Christian United States  0.1
17/06/2022 00:00 Mississippi, White Harbor United States  0.1
14/06/2022 07:00 Baja California Sur, El Tule Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 05:00 Escuintla, San Jose Guatemala  0.1
17/06/2022 03:00 Alabama, Dauphin Island Dauphin Island United States  0.1
16/06/2022 22:00 Mississippi, Bay St Louis United States  0.1
16/06/2022 22:00 Mississippi, Henderson Point United States  0.1
16/06/2022 21:00 Veracruz, Anton Lizardo Mexico  0.1
14/06/2022 23:00 Baja California Sur, Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
15/06/2022 02:00 Baja California Sur, Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
15/06/2022 02:00 Baja California Sur, Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 03:00 Alabama, Dauphin Island Fort Gaines United States  0.1
17/06/2022 03:00 Alabama, Fort Morgan United States  0.1
16/06/2022 22:00 Veracruz, Veracruz Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 00:00 Tamaulipas, El Porvenir Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 01:00 Louisiana, Chef Menteur United States  0.1
16/06/2022 01:00 Texas, Quintana United States  0.1
17/06/2022 05:00 Escuintla, Iztapa Guatemala  0.1
14/06/2022 07:00 Baja California Sur, El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 05:00 Santa Rosa, Papaturro Guatemala  0.1
15/06/2022 22:00 Veracruz, La Guadalupe Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 00:00 Valle, Puerto Grande Honduras  0.1
15/06/2022 22:00 Veracruz, Monte Gordo Mexico  0.1
15/06/2022 21:00 Veracruz, Tecolutla Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 03:00 Oaxaca, Majada Villalobos Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 00:00 Louisiana, West Point United States  0.1
14/06/2022 20:00 Baja California Sur, Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 03:00 Tamaulipas, El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
16/06/2022 23:00 Valle, El Ajustillo Honduras  0.1
17/06/2022 03:00 Oaxaca, Garrapateras Mexico  0.1
17/06/2022 01:00 Tamaulipas, Las Guayabas Mexico  0.1