Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BUALOI-19
in Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Russian Federation, Guam

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 251200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 25
NAME LOW FROM 1921 BUALOI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 251200UTC 35.1N 150.1E
MOVEMENT ENE 17KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251200UTC 35N 150E
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 984HPA
MXWD 060KT
30KT 400NM EAST 200NM WEST =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251200UTC 35N 150E
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 984HPA
MXWD 060KT
30KT 400NM EAST 200NM WEST =


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 250900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250900UTC 34.5N 149.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 80NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 260900UTC 41.6N 150.6E 70NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 250900
WARNING 250900.
WARNING VALID 260900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 980 HPA
AT 34.5N 149.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 38.3N 150.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260900UTC AT 41.6N 150.6E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 250900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250900UTC 34.5N 149.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 80NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 260900UTC 41.6N 150.6E 70NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 250900
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191025081259
2019102506 22W BUALOI 026 01 045 24 SATL 045
T000 337N 1480E 065 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 140 NE QD 110 SE QD 065 SW QD 105 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 150 SE QD 125 SW QD 190 NW QD
T012 370N 1499E 055 R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 040 SW QD 220 NW QD
T024 407N 1510E 045 R034 200 NE QD 230 SE QD 000 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 026
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 33.7N 148.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.7N 148.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 37.0N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 40.7N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 34.5N 148.5E.
25OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM EAST
OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z
IS 25 FEET.
//
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 106N1551E 35
2219101912 110N1537E 45
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102306 228N1420E 105
2219102306 228N1420E 105
2219102306 228N1420E 105
2219102312 240N1419E 100
2219102312 240N1419E 100
2219102312 240N1419E 100
2219102318 254N1419E 105
2219102318 254N1419E 105
2219102318 254N1419E 105
2219102400 269N1422E 100
2219102400 269N1422E 100
2219102400 269N1422E 100
2219102406 282N1427E 95
2219102406 282N1427E 95
2219102406 282N1427E 95
2219102412 294N1435E 90
2219102412 294N1435E 90
2219102412 294N1435E 90
2219102418 309N1447E 80
2219102418 309N1447E 80
2219102418 309N1447E 80
2219102500 320N1460E 75
2219102500 320N1460E 75
2219102500 320N1460E 75
2219102506 337N1480E 65
2219102506 337N1480E 65
2219102506 337N1480E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 33.7N 148.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.7N 148.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 37.0N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 40.7N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 34.5N 148.5E.
25OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM EAST
OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT TY 22W IS RAPIDLY BECOMING ASYMMETRIC AND THAT THE REMAINING
DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 250651Z 37GHZ SSMI IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A
MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. TY 22W IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE (45 TO 50 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG AND THERE IS NO
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TY 22W IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE STR
AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS A WEST TO EAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TY 22W TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
IT WILL ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TY 22W IS
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 12. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 25 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 34.1N, 148.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 250600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 24
NAME 1921 BUALOI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 250600UTC 34.1N 148.1E
MOVEMENT NNE 28KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 251800UTC 38.3N 149.5E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 34.1N 148.1E FAIR
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 80NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 260NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 260600UTC 41.1N 150.5E 70NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 34.1N 148.1E FAIR
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 80NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 260NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 260600UTC 41.1N 150.5E 70NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 250600
WARNING 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 980 HPA
AT 34.1N 148.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 37.6N 149.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 41.1N 150.5E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 250300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250300UTC 32.9N 147.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 260NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 260300UTC 40.0N 150.2E 70NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 250300
WARNING 250300.
WARNING VALID 260300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 975 HPA
AT 32.9N 147.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 36.0N 149.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 40.0N 150.2E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 250300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250300UTC 32.9N 147.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 260NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 260300UTC 40.0N 150.2E 70NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 250300
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191025015259
2019102500 22W BUALOI 025 01 055 15 SATL 040
T000 320N 1460E 075 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 120 SE QD 095 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 352N 1479E 060 R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 135 SE QD 095 SW QD 175 NW QD
T024 389N 1492E 050 R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 140 SE QD 070 SW QD 175 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 025
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 32.0N 146.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.0N 146.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 35.2N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 38.9N 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 32.8N 146.5E.
25OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.//
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 106N1551E 35
2219101912 110N1537E 45
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102306 228N1420E 105
2219102306 228N1420E 105
2219102306 228N1420E 105
2219102312 240N1419E 100
2219102312 240N1419E 100
2219102312 240N1419E 100
2219102318 254N1419E 105
2219102318 254N1419E 105
2219102318 254N1419E 105
2219102400 269N1422E 100
2219102400 269N1422E 100
2219102400 269N1422E 100
2219102406 282N1427E 95
2219102406 282N1427E 95
2219102406 282N1427E 95
2219102412 294N1435E 90
2219102412 294N1435E 90
2219102412 294N1435E 90
2219102418 311N1446E 80
2219102418 311N1446E 80
2219102418 311N1446E 80
2219102500 320N1460E 75
2219102500 320N1460E 75
2219102500 320N1460E 75
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 32.0N 146.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.0N 146.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 35.2N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 38.9N 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 32.8N 146.5E.
25OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 32.4N, 146.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 250000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 23
NAME 1921 BUALOI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 250000UTC 32.3N 146.2E
MOVEMENT NE 17KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 251200UTC 36.2N 148.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 260000UTC 40.3N 149.2E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 32.4N 146.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 260000UTC 39.4N 149.6E 70NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 32.4N 146.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 260000UTC 39.4N 149.6E 70NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 250000
WARNING 250000.
WARNING VALID 260000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 975 HPA
AT 32.4N 146.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 35.3N 148.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 39.4N 149.6E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 242100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 242100UTC 31.7N 145.7E FAIR
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 252100UTC 38.7N 149.3E 70NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 242100
WARNING 242100.
WARNING VALID 252100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 960 HPA
AT 31.7N 145.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 34.7N 147.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 38.7N 149.3E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 242100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 242100UTC 31.7N 145.7E FAIR
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 252100UTC 38.7N 149.3E 70NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 242100
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191024195611
2019102418 22W BUALOI 024 01 030 19 SATL 040
T000 311N 1446E 080 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 120 SE QD 095 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 343N 1469E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 090 SW QD 200 NW QD
T024 379N 1485E 050 R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 250 SE QD 080 SW QD 200 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 024
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 31.1N 144.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.1N 144.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 34.3N 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 37.9N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 31.9N 145.2E.
24OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 582 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z
AND 251500Z.//
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 106N1551E 35
2219101912 110N1537E 45
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102306 228N1420E 105
2219102306 228N1420E 105
2219102306 228N1420E 105
2219102312 240N1419E 100
2219102312 240N1419E 100
2219102312 240N1419E 100
2219102318 254N1419E 105
2219102318 254N1419E 105
2219102318 254N1419E 105
2219102400 269N1422E 100
2219102400 269N1422E 100
2219102400 269N1422E 100
2219102406 282N1427E 95
2219102406 282N1427E 95
2219102406 282N1427E 95
2219102412 294N1435E 90
2219102412 294N1435E 90
2219102412 294N1435E 90
2219102418 311N1446E 80
2219102418 311N1446E 80
2219102418 311N1446E 80
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 31.1N 144.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.1N 144.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 34.3N 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 37.9N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 31.9N 145.2E.
24OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 582 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z
AND 251500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 30.9N, 145.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 80KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND
THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 241800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 22
NAME 1921 BUALOI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 241800UTC 30.9N 144.9E
MOVEMENT NE 17KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 250600UTC 34.7N 146.9E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
24HR
POSITION 251800UTC 38.8N 148.4E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 30.9N 145.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 37.6N 148.8E 50NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 30.9N 145.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 37.6N 148.8E 50NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 241800
WARNING 241800.
WARNING VALID 251800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 960 HPA
AT 30.9N 145.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 33.8N 147.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 37.6N 148.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 241500
WARNING 241500.
WARNING VALID 251500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 955 HPA
AT 30.5N 144.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 33.2N 146.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 36.6N 148.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 241500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241500UTC 30.5N 144.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 251500UTC 36.6N 148.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 261200UTC 42.1N 150.7E 90NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 241500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241500UTC 30.5N 144.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 251500UTC 36.6N 148.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 261200UTC 42.1N 150.7E 90NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 241500
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191024133927
2019102412 22W BUALOI 023 01 030 14 SATL 030
T000 294N 1435E 090 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 095 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 324N 1454E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 160 SE QD 090 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 357N 1472E 055 R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 090 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 023
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 29.4N 143.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.4N 143.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 32.4N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 35.7N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 30.2N 144.0E.
24OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM SOUTH
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z AND
250900Z.//
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 106N1551E 35
2219101912 110N1537E 45
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102306 228N1420E 105
2219102306 228N1420E 105
2219102306 228N1420E 105
2219102312 240N1419E 100
2219102312 240N1419E 100
2219102312 240N1419E 100
2219102318 254N1419E 105
2219102318 254N1419E 105
2219102318 254N1419E 105
2219102400 269N1422E 100
2219102400 269N1422E 100
2219102400 269N1422E 100
2219102406 282N1427E 95
2219102406 282N1427E 95
2219102406 282N1427E 95
2219102412 294N1435E 90
2219102412 294N1435E 90
2219102412 294N1435E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 29.4N 143.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.4N 143.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 32.4N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 35.7N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 30.2N 144.0E.
24OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM SOUTH
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z AND
250900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 29.6N, 143.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 241200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 21
NAME 1921 BUALOI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 241200UTC 29.6N 143.6E
MOVEMENT NE 15KT
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 250000UTC 33.1N 145.5E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
24HR
POSITION 251200UTC 37.1N 147.4E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 29.6N 143.7E FAIR
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 35.7N 147.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 261200UTC 42.1N 150.7E 90NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 29.6N 143.7E FAIR
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 35.7N 147.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 261200UTC 42.1N 150.7E 90NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 241200
WARNING 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 955 HPA
AT 29.6N 143.7E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 32.5N 145.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 35.7N 147.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 42.1N 150.7E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 240900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240900UTC 29.0N 143.1E FAIR
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 250900UTC 35.0N 146.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 260600UTC 41.3N 149.2E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 240900
WARNING 240900.
WARNING VALID 250900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 955 HPA
AT 29.0N 143.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 31.7N 145.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 35.0N 146.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 240900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240900UTC 29.0N 143.1E FAIR
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 250900UTC 35.0N 146.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 260600UTC 41.3N 149.2E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 240900
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191024072808
2019102406 22W BUALOI 022 01 020 14 SATL 025
T000 282N 1427E 095 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 085 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 310N 1445E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 140 SE QD 080 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 341N 1465E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 080 SW QD 200 NW QD
T036 376N 1481E 050 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 230 SE QD 090 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 022
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 28.2N 142.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2N 142.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 31.0N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 34.1N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 37.6N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 28.9N 143.2E.
24OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 736 NM SOUTH
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z
AND 250900Z.//
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 106N1551E 35
2219101912 110N1537E 45
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102306 228N1420E 105
2219102306 228N1420E 105
2219102306 228N1420E 105
2219102312 240N1419E 100
2219102312 240N1419E 100
2219102312 240N1419E 100
2219102318 254N1419E 105
2219102318 254N1419E 105
2219102318 254N1419E 105
2219102400 269N1422E 100
2219102400 269N1422E 100
2219102400 269N1422E 100
2219102406 282N1427E 95
2219102406 282N1427E 95
2219102406 282N1427E 95
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 28.2N 142.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2N 142.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 31.0N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 34.1N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 37.6N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 28.9N 143.2E.
24OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 736 NM SOUTH
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z
AND 250900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 28.4N, 142.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 240600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 20
NAME 1921 BUALOI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 240600UTC 28.3N 142.6E
MOVEMENT NNE 17KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 241800UTC 31.4N 144.6E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
24HR
POSITION 250600UTC 34.8N 146.4E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
36HR
POSITION 251800UTC 38.9N 148.2E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240600UTC 28.4N 142.6E GOOD
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 250600UTC 34.4N 146.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 260600UTC 41.3N 149.2E 90NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240600UTC 28.4N 142.6E GOOD
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 250600UTC 34.4N 146.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 260600UTC 41.3N 149.2E 90NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 240600
WARNING 240600.
WARNING VALID 250600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 955 HPA
AT 28.4N 142.6E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 31.2N 144.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 34.4N 146.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 41.3N 149.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 240300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240300UTC 27.5N 142.1E GOOD
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 250300UTC 33.4N 146.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 260000UTC 39.5N 147.9E 100NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 240300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240300UTC 27.5N 142.1E GOOD
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 250300UTC 33.4N 146.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 260000UTC 39.5N 147.9E 100NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 240300
WARNING 240300.
WARNING VALID 250300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 950 HPA
AT 27.5N 142.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 30.3N 143.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 33.4N 146.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 240300
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191024014723
2019102400 22W BUALOI 021 01 010 16 SATL 020
T000 269N 1423E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 298N 1437E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 327N 1456E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 090 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 359N 1474E 055 R050 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 220 SE QD 110 SW QD 220 NW QD
T048 399N 1491E 045 R034 220 NE QD 250 SE QD 090 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 021
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 26.9N 142.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9N 142.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 29.8N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 32.7N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 35.9N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 39.9N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 27.6N 142.6E.
24OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z,
242100Z AND 250300Z.//
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 106N1551E 35
2219101912 110N1537E 45
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102306 228N1420E 105
2219102306 228N1420E 105
2219102306 228N1420E 105
2219102312 240N1419E 100
2219102312 240N1419E 100
2219102312 240N1419E 100
2219102318 253N1420E 100
2219102318 253N1420E 100
2219102318 253N1420E 100
2219102400 269N1423E 95
2219102400 269N1423E 95
2219102400 269N1423E 95
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 021 //
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 26.9N 142.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9N 142.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 29.8N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 32.7N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 35.9N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 39.9N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 27.6N 142.6E.
24OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z,
242100Z AND 250300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 240000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 26.8N, 142.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 90KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOWER SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 26.8N, 142.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 90KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOWER SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 240000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19
NAME 1921 BUALOI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 240000UTC 26.8N 142.0E
MOVEMENT N 12KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 241200UTC 29.6N 143.2E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
24HR
POSITION 250000UTC 33.1N 145.1E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
36HR
POSITION 251200UTC 37.4N 147.5E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 26.8N 142.1E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 32.6N 145.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 260000UTC 39.5N 147.9E 100NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 26.8N 142.1E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 32.6N 145.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 260000UTC 39.5N 147.9E 100NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 240000
WARNING 240000.
WARNING VALID 250000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 950 HPA
AT 26.8N 142.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 29.6N 143.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 32.6N 145.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 39.5N 147.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 232100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 26.2N 141.9E GOOD
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 242100UTC 31.8N 145.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 251800UTC 37.7N 148.0E 100NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 232100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 232100UTC 26.2N 141.9E GOOD
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 242100UTC 31.8N 145.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 251800UTC 37.7N 148.0E 100NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 232100
WARNING 232100.
WARNING VALID 242100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 950 HPA
AT 26.2N 141.9E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240900UTC AT 29.0N 142.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 31.8N 145.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 232100
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191023195506
2019102318 22W BUALOI 020 01 005 13 SATL 020
T000 253N 1420E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 075 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 281N 1427E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 310N 1444E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 080 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 342N 1464E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 180 SE QD 090 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 380N 1483E 050 R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 100 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 020
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 25.3N 142.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3N 142.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 28.1N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 31.0N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 34.2N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 38.0N 148.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 26.0N 142.2E.
23OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109 NM SOUTH
OF CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 39
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.//
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 106N1551E 35
2219101912 110N1537E 45
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102306 228N1420E 105
2219102306 228N1420E 105
2219102306 228N1420E 105
2219102312 240N1419E 100
2219102312 240N1419E 100
2219102312 240N1419E 100
2219102318 253N1420E 100
2219102318 253N1420E 100
2219102318 253N1420E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 25.3N 142.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3N 142.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 28.1N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 31.0N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 34.2N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 38.0N 148.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 26.0N 142.2E.
23OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109 NM SOUTH
OF CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 39
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 231800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 25.6N, 141.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 90KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOWER SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ARE FAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM
DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 25.6N, 141.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 90KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LOWER SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE
OF HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ARE FAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM
DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT36. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT36 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP, LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 231800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18
NAME 1921 BUALOI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 231800UTC 25.5N 142.0E
MOVEMENT N 15KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 240600UTC 28.5N 142.8E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
24HR
POSITION 241800UTC 31.5N 144.1E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
36HR
POSITION 250600UTC 34.9N 146.1E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
48HR
POSITION 251800UTC 39.5N 148.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 25.6N 141.8E GOOD
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 241800UTC 31.2N 144.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 251800UTC 37.7N 148.0E 100NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 25.6N 141.8E GOOD
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 241800UTC 31.2N 144.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 251800UTC 37.7N 148.0E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 231800
WARNING 231800.
WARNING VALID 241800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 950 HPA
AT 25.6N 141.8E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 28.4N 142.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 31.2N 144.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 37.7N 148.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 231500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231500UTC 24.8N 142.0E GOOD
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 241500UTC 30.4N 144.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 251200UTC 35.8N 148.0E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 261200UTC 41.7N 150.7E 140NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 231500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231500UTC 24.8N 142.0E GOOD
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 241500UTC 30.4N 144.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 251200UTC 35.8N 148.0E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 261200UTC 41.7N 150.7E 140NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 231500
WARNING 231500.
WARNING VALID 241500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 950 HPA
AT 24.8N 142.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 27.6N 142.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 30.4N 144.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 231500
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191023131550
2019102312 22W BUALOI 019 01 355 12 SATL 015
T000 240N 1419E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 135 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 267N 1421E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 295N 1435E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 326N 1454E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 170 SE QD 090 SW QD 180 NW QD
T048 359N 1472E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 130 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 421N 1504E 040 R034 240 NE QD 260 SE QD 040 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 019
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 24.0N 141.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 141.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.7N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 29.5N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 32.6N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 35.9N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 42.1N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 142.0E.
23OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 58 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 106N1551E 35
2219101912 110N1537E 45
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102306 228N1420E 105
2219102306 228N1420E 105
2219102306 228N1420E 105
2219102312 240N1419E 100
2219102312 240N1419E 100
2219102312 240N1419E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 24.0N 141.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 141.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.7N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 29.5N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 32.6N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 35.9N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 42.1N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 142.0E.
23OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 58 NM SOUTHEAST
OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 231200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 24.1N, 142.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOWER SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 24.1N, 142.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOWER SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 231200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17
NAME 1921 BUALOI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 231200UTC 24.0N 142.0E
MOVEMENT N 11KT
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 240000UTC 26.5N 142.1E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
24HR
POSITION 241200UTC 29.4N 143.2E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
36HR
POSITION 250000UTC 32.9N 144.9E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
48HR
POSITION 251200UTC 37.2N 147.3E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 24.1N 142.0E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 29.5N 143.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 251200UTC 35.8N 148.0E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 261200UTC 41.7N 150.7E 140NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 24.1N 142.0E GOOD
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 29.5N 143.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 251200UTC 35.8N 148.0E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 261200UTC 41.7N 150.7E 140NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 231200
WARNING 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 940 HPA
AT 24.1N 142.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 26.8N 142.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 29.5N 143.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 35.8N 148.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 41.7N 150.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 230900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230900UTC 23.5N 142.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 240900UTC 28.9N 142.8E 40NM 70.
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 250600UTC 34.1N 146.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 260600UTC 40.3N 149.9E 100NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 230900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230900UTC 23.5N 142.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 240900UTC 28.9N 142.8E 40NM 70.
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 250600UTC 34.1N 146.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 260600UTC 40.3N 149.9E 100NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 230900
WARNING 230900.
WARNING VALID 240900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 940 HPA
AT 23.5N 142.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 232100UTC AT 26.1N 141.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240900UTC AT 28.9N 142.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 230900
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191023073302
2019102306 22W BUALOI 018 01 345 11 SATL 015
T000 228N 1420E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 075 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 254N 1418E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 282N 1425E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 313N 1441E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 344N 1460E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 180 SE QD 100 SW QD 190 NW QD
T072 410N 1497E 045 R034 220 NE QD 250 SE QD 070 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 018
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 22.8N 142.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 142.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 25.4N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 28.2N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 31.3N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 34.4N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 41.0N 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 23.5N 142.0E.
23OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 106N1551E 35
2219101912 110N1537E 45
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102300 217N1423E 115
2219102306 228N1420E 100
2219102306 228N1420E 100
2219102306 228N1420E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 22.8N 142.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 142.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 25.4N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 28.2N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 31.3N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 34.4N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 41.0N 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 23.5N 142.0E.
23OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 39
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 22.8N, 142.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS
DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 230600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 16
NAME 1921 BUALOI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 230600UTC 22.9N 142.0E
MOVEMENT NNW 12KT
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 231800UTC 25.3N 141.5E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
24HR
POSITION 240600UTC 27.9N 142.1E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
36HR
POSITION 241800UTC 30.8N 143.5E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 250600UTC 34.6N 145.6E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
72HR
POSITION 260600UTC 41.3N 149.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230600UTC 22.8N 142.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 240600UTC 28.1N 142.1E 30NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 250600UTC 34.1N 146.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 260600UTC 40.3N 149.9E 100NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230600UTC 22.8N 142.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 240600UTC 28.1N 142.1E 30NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 250600UTC 34.1N 146.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 260600UTC 40.3N 149.9E 100NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 230600
WARNING 230600.
WARNING VALID 240600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 940 HPA
AT 22.8N 142.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 25.3N 141.4E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 28.1N 142.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 34.1N 146.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 40.3N 149.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 230300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230300UTC 22.2N 142.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 240300UTC 27.4N 141.8E 30NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 250000UTC 32.5N 145.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 260000UTC 39.0N 148.4E 100NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 230300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230300UTC 22.2N 142.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 240300UTC 27.4N 141.8E 30NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 250000UTC 32.5N 145.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 260000UTC 39.0N 148.4E 100NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 230300
WARNING 230300.
WARNING VALID 240300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 935 HPA
AT 22.2N 142.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 24.7N 141.6E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240300UTC AT 27.4N 141.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 230300
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191023014420
2019102300 22W BUALOI 017 02 325 15 SATL 020
T000 217N 1422E 120 R064 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 241N 1416E 115 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 269N 1417E 110 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 298N 1430E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 329N 1451E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW QD 190 NW QD
T072 395N 1487E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 240 SE QD 100 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 017
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 21.7N 142.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 142.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 24.1N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.9N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 29.8N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 32.9N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 39.5N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 142.1E.
23OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 193 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 106N1551E 35
2219101912 110N1537E 45
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102300 217N1422E 120
2219102300 217N1422E 120
2219102300 217N1422E 120
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 21.7N 142.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 142.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 24.1N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.9N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 29.8N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 32.9N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 39.5N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 22.3N 142.1E.
23OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 193 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z
IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 230000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 21.7N, 142.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS DISAPPEARED. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 21.7N, 142.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS DISAPPEARED. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 21.7N 142.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 26.7N 141.8E 30NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 250000UTC 32.5N 145.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 260000UTC 39.0N 148.4E 100NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 21.7N 142.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 26.7N 141.8E 30NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 250000UTC 32.5N 145.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 260000UTC 39.0N 148.4E 100NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 230000
WARNING 230000.
WARNING VALID 240000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 935 HPA
AT 21.7N 142.4E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 24.0N 141.6E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 26.7N 141.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 32.5N 145.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 39.0N 148.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 222100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 222100UTC 21.1N 142.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 232100UTC 26.0N 141.8E 30NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 241800UTC 30.8N 143.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 251800UTC 37.7N 147.8E 100NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 222100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 222100UTC 21.1N 142.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 232100UTC 26.0N 141.8E 30NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 241800UTC 30.8N 143.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 251800UTC 37.7N 147.8E 100NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 222100
WARNING 222100.
WARNING VALID 232100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 935 HPA
AT 21.1N 142.8E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 23.4N 141.9E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 232100UTC AT 26.0N 141.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 222100
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191022203143
2019102218 22W BUALOI 016 02 345 13 SATL 010
T000 204N 1431E 125 R064 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 227N 1420E 125 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 252N 1417E 120 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 280N 1424E 110 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 313N 1441E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 382N 1480E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 120 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 016
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 20.4N 143.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 143.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.7N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 25.2N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 28.0N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 31.3N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 38.2N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 142.8E.
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 106N1551E 35
2219101912 110N1537E 45
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
2219102218 204N1431E 125
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 016 //
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 20.4N 143.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 143.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.7N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 25.2N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 28.0N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 31.3N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 38.2N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 142.8E.
22OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
221800Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND
232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 221800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 20.3N, 143.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 20.3N, 143.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP,
INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221800UTC 20.3N 143.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 231800UTC 25.0N 141.5E 30NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 241800UTC 30.8N 143.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 251800UTC 37.7N 147.8E 100NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221800UTC 20.3N 143.1E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 231800UTC 25.0N 141.5E 30NM 70%
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 241800UTC 30.8N 143.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 251800UTC 37.7N 147.8E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 221800
WARNING 221800.
WARNING VALID 231800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 935 HPA
AT 20.3N 143.1E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 22.5N 141.9E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 25.0N 141.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 30.8N 143.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 37.7N 147.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 221500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221500UTC 19.7N 143.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 231500UTC 24.2N 141.4E 30NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 241200UTC 28.8N 142.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 251200UTC 35.9N 146.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNE 20KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 261200UTC 42.1N 150.3E 140NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 221500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221500UTC 19.7N 143.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 231500UTC 24.2N 141.4E 30NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 241200UTC 28.8N 142.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 251200UTC 35.9N 146.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNE 20KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 221500
WARNING 221500.
WARNING VALID 231500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 935 HPA
AT 19.7N 143.3E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 21.9N 142.0E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231500UTC AT 24.2N 141.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 221500
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191022131720
2019102212 22W BUALOI 015 02 320 14 SATL 010
T000 192N 1435E 125 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 213N 1422E 130 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 110 SE QD 075 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 236N 1414E 120 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 263N 1414E 110 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 292N 1423E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 359N 1464E 075 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 210 SE QD 110 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 015
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 19.2N 143.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 143.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.3N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.6N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.3N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 29.2N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 35.9N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 143.2E.
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 106N1551E 35
2219101912 110N1537E 45
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102212 192N1435E 125
2219102212 192N1435E 125
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 19.2N 143.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 143.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 21.3N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.6N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.3N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 29.2N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 35.9N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 143.2E.
22OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 358 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 44 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR FINAL
WARNING.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 221200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 19.2N, 143.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 19.2N, 143.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP,
INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 19.2N 143.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 23.6N 141.5E 30NM 70.
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 241200UTC 28.8N 142.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 251200UTC 35.9N 146.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNE 20KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 261200UTC 42.1N 150.3E 140NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 19.2N 143.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 23.6N 141.5E 30NM 70.
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 241200UTC 28.8N 142.4E 60NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 251200UTC 35.9N 146.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNE 20KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 221200
WARNING 221200.
WARNING VALID 231200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 935 HPA
AT 19.2N 143.6E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 21.3N 142.2E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 23.6N 141.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 28.8N 142.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 35.9N 146.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 42.1N 150.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 220900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220900UTC 18.7N 144.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 230900UTC 23.0N 141.6E 40NM 70.
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 240600UTC 27.2N 141.7E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 250600UTC 33.5N 145.3E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 260600UTC 39.9N 149.0E 200NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 220900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220900UTC 18.7N 144.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 230900UTC 23.0N 141.6E 40NM 70.
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 240600UTC 27.2N 141.7E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 250600UTC 33.5N 145.3E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 220900
WARNING 220900.
WARNING VALID 230900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 935 HPA
AT 18.7N 144.0E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 222100UTC AT 20.7N 142.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230900UTC AT 23.0N 141.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 220900
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191022074332
2019102206 22W BUALOI 014 02 335 12 SATL 010
T000 181N 1444E 120 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 200N 1431E 125 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 222N 1421E 120 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 248N 1416E 115 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 274N 1419E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 338N 1454E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 100 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 401N 1491E 055 R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 260 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 014
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 18.1N 144.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 144.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.0N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.2N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.8N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 27.4N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 33.8N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 40.1N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 144.1E.
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 106N1551E 35
2219101912 110N1537E 45
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102118 163N1459E 110
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102200 170N1450E 115
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
2219102206 181N1444E 120
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 18.1N 144.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 144.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.0N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.2N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.8N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 27.4N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 33.8N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 40.1N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 144.1E.
22OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 438 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 43
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 220600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 18.2N, 144.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
940HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 18.2N, 144.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
940HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220600UTC 18.2N 144.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 230600UTC 22.1N 141.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 240600UTC 27.2N 141.7E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 250600UTC 33.5N 145.3E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 260600UTC 39.9N 149.0E 200NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220600UTC 18.2N 144.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 230600UTC 22.1N 141.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 240600UTC 27.2N 141.7E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 250600UTC 33.5N 145.3E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 220600
WARNING 220600.
WARNING VALID 230600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 940 HPA
AT 18.2N 144.4E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 19.8N 142.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 22.1N 141.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 27.2N 141.7E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 33.5N 145.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 39.9N 149.0E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 220300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220300UTC 17.6N 144.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 230300UTC 21.5N 142.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 240000UTC 25.7N 141.5E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 250000UTC 31.6N 144.5E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 260000UTC 37.9N 148.3E 170NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 220300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220300UTC 17.6N 144.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 230300UTC 21.5N 142.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 240000UTC 25.7N 141.5E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 250000UTC 31.6N 144.5E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 220300
WARNING 220300.
WARNING VALID 230300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 955 HPA
AT 17.6N 144.7E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 19.4N 143.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230300UTC AT 21.5N 142.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 220300
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191022020751
2019102200 22W BUALOI 013 02 315 12 SATL 010
T000 171N 1450E 115 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 188N 1436E 120 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 209N 1424E 120 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 231N 1416E 120 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 257N 1414E 115 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 318N 1441E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 170 SE QD 100 SW QD 180 NW QD
T096 382N 1480E 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 250 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 013
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 17.1N 145.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 145.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.8N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.9N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.1N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.7N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 31.8N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 38.2N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 144.7E.
22OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 106N1551E 35
2219101912 110N1537E 45
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102118 163N1459E 115
2219102118 163N1459E 115
2219102118 163N1459E 115
2219102200 171N1450E 115
2219102200 171N1450E 115
2219102200 171N1450E 115
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 17.1N 145.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 145.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.8N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.9N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 23.1N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.7N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 31.8N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 38.2N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 144.7E.
22OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z
IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 220000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 17.1N, 145.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
955HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 17.1N, 145.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
955HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220000UTC 17.1N 145.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 230000UTC 20.9N 142.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 240000UTC 25.7N 141.5E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 250000UTC 31.6N 144.5E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 260000UTC 37.9N 148.3E 170NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220000UTC 17.1N 145.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 230000UTC 20.9N 142.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 240000UTC 25.7N 141.5E 75NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 250000UTC 31.6N 144.5E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 220000
WARNING 220000.
WARNING VALID 230000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 955 HPA
AT 17.1N 145.0E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 18.9N 143.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 20.9N 142.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 25.7N 141.5E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 31.6N 144.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 37.9N 148.3E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 212100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 212100UTC 16.7N 145.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 222100UTC 20.3N 142.6E 40NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 231800UTC 24.2N 141.2E 75NM 70.
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 241800UTC 29.4N 142.7E 120NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 251800UTC 36.1N 146.4E 170NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 212100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 212100UTC 16.7N 145.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 222100UTC 20.3N 142.6E 40NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 231800UTC 24.2N 141.2E 75NM 70.
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 241800UTC 29.4N 142.7E 120NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 212100
WARNING 212100.
WARNING VALID 222100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 955 HPA
AT 16.7N 145.5E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220900UTC AT 18.4N 143.9E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 222100UTC AT 20.3N 142.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 212100
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191021202417
2019102118 22W BUALOI 012 02 315 12 SATL 010
T000 163N 1459E 115 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 180N 1443E 120 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 198N 1429E 120 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 219N 1419E 120 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 242N 1413E 115 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 298N 1428E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 362N 1468E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 220 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T120 423N 1525E 050 R050 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 310 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 012
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 16.3N 145.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 145.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.0N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.8N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.9N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.2N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 29.8N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 36.2N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 42.3N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 145.5E.
21OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 106N1551E 35
2219101912 110N1537E 45
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102118 163N1459E 115
2219102118 163N1459E 115
2219102118 163N1459E 115
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 16.3N 145.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 145.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.0N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.8N 142.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.9N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 24.2N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 29.8N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 36.2N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 42.3N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 145.5E.
21OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z
IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 211800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 16.3N, 146.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 16.3N, 146.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211800UTC 16.3N 146.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 221800UTC 19.7N 142.9E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 231800UTC 24.2N 141.2E 75NM 70.
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 241800UTC 29.4N 142.7E 120NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 251800UTC 36.1N 146.4E 170NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211800UTC 16.3N 146.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 221800UTC 19.7N 142.9E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 231800UTC 24.2N 141.2E 75NM 70.
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 241800UTC 29.4N 142.7E 120NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 211800
WARNING 211800.
WARNING VALID 221800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 955 HPA
AT 16.3N 146.0E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 18.0N 144.4E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 19.7N 142.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 24.2N 141.2E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 29.4N 142.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 36.1N 146.4E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 211500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211500UTC 15.8N 146.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 221500UTC 19.1N 143.3E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 231200UTC 22.7N 141.4E 75NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 241200UTC 27.9N 142.2E 120NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 251200UTC 34.3N 146.1E 170NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 261200UTC 39.1N 151.9E 240NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 211500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211500UTC 15.8N 146.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 221500UTC 19.1N 143.3E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 231200UTC 22.7N 141.4E 75NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 241200UTC 27.9N 142.2E 120NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 211500
WARNING 211500.
WARNING VALID 221500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 955 HPA
AT 15.8N 146.4E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 17.3N 144.8E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221500UTC AT 19.1N 143.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 211500
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191021132246
2019102112 22W BUALOI 011 02 310 10 SATL RADR 015
T000 154N 1468E 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 170N 1452E 115 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 187N 1437E 125 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 206N 1425E 125 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 228N 1419E 120 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 279N 1424E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 340N 1454E 085 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 190 SE QD 100 SW QD 160 NW QD
T120 407N 1495E 060 R050 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 280 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 011
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 146.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 146.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.0N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.7N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.6N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.8N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.9N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 34.0N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 40.7N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 146.4E.
21OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z,
220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
UPDATES.//
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 106N1551E 35
2219101912 110N1537E 45
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102106 147N1476E 100
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
2219102112 154N1468E 105
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 146.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 146.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.0N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.7N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.6N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.8N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.9N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 34.0N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 40.7N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 146.4E.
21OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z,
220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
21W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 211200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 15.4N, 146.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 15.4N, 146.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 15.4N 146.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 18.6N 143.6E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 231200UTC 22.7N 141.4E 75NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 241200UTC 27.9N 142.2E 120NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 251200UTC 34.3N 146.1E 170NM 70.
MOVE NNE 18KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 261200UTC 39.1N 151.9E 240NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 15.4N 146.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 18.6N 143.6E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 231200UTC 22.7N 141.4E 75NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 241200UTC 27.9N 142.2E 120NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 211200
WARNING 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 955 HPA
AT 15.4N 146.8E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 16.9N 145.2E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 18.6N 143.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 22.7N 141.4E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 27.9N 142.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 34.3N 146.1E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 39.1N 151.9E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
986 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 210900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210900UTC 15.1N 147.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 220900UTC 18.3N 144.1E 30NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 230600UTC 21.5N 141.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 240600UTC 26.4N 141.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 250600UTC 32.2N 145.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
117HF 260600UTC 38.7N 149.3E 200NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 210900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210900UTC 15.1N 147.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 220900UTC 18.3N 144.1E 30NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 230600UTC 21.5N 141.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 240600UTC 26.4N 141.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 210900
WARNING 210900.
WARNING VALID 220900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 955 HPA
AT 15.1N 147.2E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 212100UTC AT 16.6N 145.7E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220900UTC AT 18.3N 144.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 210900
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191021070039
2019102106 22W BUALOI 010 02 315 08 SATL 015
T000 147N 1476E 095 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 085 SE QD 065 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 162N 1460E 110 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 178N 1444E 120 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 196N 1430E 125 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 216N 1419E 125 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 264N 1416E 115 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 324N 1443E 095 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 170 SE QD 090 SW QD 170 NW QD
T120 391N 1485E 070 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 260 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 010
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 14.7N 147.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 147.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.2N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.8N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.6N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.6N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.4N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 32.4N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 39.1N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 147.2E.
21OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
210600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 106N1551E 35
2219101912 110N1537E 45
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102106 147N1476E 95
2219102106 147N1476E 95
2219102106 147N1476E 95
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 14.7N 147.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 147.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.2N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.8N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.6N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.6N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.4N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 32.4N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 39.1N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 147.2E.
21OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
210600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND
220900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 210600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 14.7N, 147.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 14.7N, 147.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210600UTC 14.7N 147.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 220600UTC 17.8N 144.3E 30NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 230600UTC 21.5N 141.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 240600UTC 26.4N 141.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 250600UTC 32.2N 145.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
120HF 260600UTC 38.7N 149.3E 200NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 210600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210600UTC 14.7N 147.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 220600UTC 17.8N 144.3E 30NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 230600UTC 21.5N 141.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 240600UTC 26.4N 141.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 210600
WARNING 210600.
WARNING VALID 220600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 955 HPA
AT 14.7N 147.6E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 16.2N 145.9E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 17.8N 144.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 21.5N 141.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 26.4N 141.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 32.2N 145.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 38.7N 149.3E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
986 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 210300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210300UTC 14.3N 147.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 220300UTC 17.4N 144.5E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 230000UTC 20.3N 141.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 240000UTC 24.7N 140.7E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
93HF 250000UTC 30.4N 142.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
117HF 260000UTC 37.2N 146.4E 240NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 210300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210300UTC 14.3N 147.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 220300UTC 17.4N 144.5E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 230000UTC 20.3N 141.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 240000UTC 24.7N 140.7E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 210300
WARNING 210300.
WARNING VALID 220300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 955 HPA
AT 14.3N 147.9E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211500UTC AT 15.8N 146.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220300UTC AT 17.4N 144.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 210000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 14.1N, 148.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 14.1N, 148.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 210300
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191021021311
2019102100 22W BUALOI 009 02 315 11 SATL 010
T000 141N 1482E 085 R064 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 005 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 035 SE QD 015 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 075 SE QD 045 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 156N 1466E 095 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 171N 1450E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 188N 1434E 115 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 206N 1421E 115 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 250N 1412E 120 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 308N 1430E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 160 SE QD 080 SW QD 190 NW QD
T120 376N 1473E 080 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 250 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 009
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 148.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 148.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.6N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.1N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.8N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.6N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.0N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 30.8N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 37.6N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 147.8E.
21OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 154 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
210000Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z
AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 106N1551E 35
2219101912 110N1537E 45
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
2219102100 141N1482E 85
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 009 //
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 148.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 148.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.6N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.1N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.8N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.6N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.0N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 30.8N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 37.6N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 147.8E.
21OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 154 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
210000Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z
AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 14.1N 148.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 17.1N 144.8E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 230000UTC 20.3N 141.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 240000UTC 24.7N 140.7E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 250000UTC 30.4N 142.6E 140NM 70.
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
120HF 260000UTC 37.2N 146.4E 240NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 210000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210000UTC 14.1N 148.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 220000UTC 17.1N 144.8E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 230000UTC 20.3N 141.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 240000UTC 24.7N 140.7E 100NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 210000
WARNING 210000.
WARNING VALID 220000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 970 HPA
AT 14.1N 148.1E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 15.7N 146.6E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 17.1N 144.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 20.3N 141.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 24.7N 140.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 30.4N 142.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 37.2N 146.4E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
986 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 202100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 202100UTC 13.8N 148.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 212100UTC 16.8N 145.5E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 221800UTC 19.2N 142.5E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 231800UTC 23.5N 140.9E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
93HF 241800UTC 28.8N 142.2E 170NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
117HF 251800UTC 35.3N 146.3E 240NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 202100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 202100UTC 13.8N 148.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 212100UTC 16.8N 145.5E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 221800UTC 19.2N 142.5E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 231800UTC 23.5N 140.9E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 202100
WARNING 202100.
WARNING VALID 212100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) 970 HPA
AT 13.8N 148.8E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210900UTC AT 15.3N 147.2E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 212100UTC AT 16.8N 145.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 202100
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191020202353
2019102018 22W BUALOI 008 02 310 10 SATL 010
T000 133N 1490E 075 R064 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 147N 1474E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 162N 1458E 100 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 179N 1443E 105 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 196N 1428E 115 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 238N 1412E 115 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 295N 1427E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 359N 1464E 090 R064 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 090 SW QD 200 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 008
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 13.3N 149.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 149.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.7N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.2N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.9N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.6N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.8N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 29.5N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 35.9N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 148.6E.
20OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 218 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
201800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z
AND 212100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 106N1551E 35
2219101912 110N1537E 45
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
2219102018 133N1490E 75
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 008 //
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 13.3N 149.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 149.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.7N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.2N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.9N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.6N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 23.8N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 29.5N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 35.9N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 148.6E.
20OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 218 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
201800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z
AND 212100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 201800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 13.1N, 149.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TY 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 13.1N, 149.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT120.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201800UTC 13.1N 149.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 211800UTC 16.1N 146.0E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 221800UTC 19.2N 142.5E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 231800UTC 23.5N 140.9E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 241800UTC 28.8N 142.2E 170NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
120HF 251800UTC 35.3N 146.3E 240NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1921 BUALOI (1921) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201800UTC 13.1N 149.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 211800UTC 16.1N 146.0E 40NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 221800UTC 19.2N 142.5E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 231800UTC 23.5N 140.9E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 201800
WARNING 201800.
WARNING VALID 211800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1921 BUALOI (1921) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970
HPA
AT 13.1N 149.2E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 14.6N 147.6E WITH 20 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 16.1N 146.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 19.2N 142.5E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 23.5N 140.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 28.8N 142.2E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 35.3N 146.3E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 201500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201500UTC 12.9N 149.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 211500UTC 15.9N 146.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 221200UTC 18.4N 143.5E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 231200UTC 22.2N 140.9E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
93HF 241200UTC 27.6N 141.2E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 251200UTC 34.5N 145.6E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNE 20KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 201500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201500UTC 12.9N 149.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 211500UTC 15.9N 146.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 221200UTC 18.4N 143.5E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 231200UTC 22.2N 140.9E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 201500
WARNING 201500.
WARNING VALID 211500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1921 BUALOI (1921) 980 HPA
AT 12.9N 149.4E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210300UTC AT 14.3N 148.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211500UTC AT 15.9N 146.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 201200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR STS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 12.7N, 149.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
FORMATION OF A CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR STS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 12.7N, 149.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 60KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
FORMATION OF A CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 201500
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191020130807
2019102012 22W BUALOI 007 02 310 08 SATL 020
T000 127N 1498E 070 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 138N 1483E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 152N 1467E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 167N 1453E 105 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 184N 1439E 115 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 224N 1414E 115 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 280N 1421E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 150 NW QD
T120 340N 1455E 095 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 190 SE QD 100 SW QD 220 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 007
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 12.7N 149.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 149.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 13.8N 148.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.2N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.7N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.4N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.4N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 28.0N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 34.0N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 149.4E.
20OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 292 NM EAST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
HOURLY UPDATES.//
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 106N1551E 35
2219101912 110N1537E 45
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
2219102012 127N1498E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 12.7N 149.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 149.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 13.8N 148.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.2N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.7N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.4N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.4N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 28.0N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 34.0N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 149.4E.
20OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 292 NM EAST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 21W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 12.7N 149.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 15.4N 146.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 221200UTC 18.4N 143.5E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 231200UTC 22.2N 140.9E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 241200UTC 27.6N 141.2E 140NM 70.
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 251200UTC 34.5N 145.6E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNE 20KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 201200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201200UTC 12.7N 149.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 211200UTC 15.4N 146.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 221200UTC 18.4N 143.5E 75NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 231200UTC 22.2N 140.9E 100NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 201200
WARNING 201200.
WARNING VALID 211200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1921 BUALOI (1921) 980 HPA
AT 12.7N 149.9E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 13.9N 148.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 15.4N 146.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 18.4N 143.5E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 22.2N 140.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 27.6N 141.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 34.5N 145.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 200900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200900UTC 12.2N 150.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 210900UTC 15.0N 147.3E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 220600UTC 17.6N 144.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 230600UTC 21.2N 141.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
93HF 240600UTC 26.3N 141.2E 170NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
117HF 250600UTC 32.8N 145.5E 240NM 70.
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 200900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200900UTC 12.2N 150.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 210900UTC 15.0N 147.3E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 220600UTC 17.6N 144.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 230600UTC 21.2N 141.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 200900
WARNING 200900.
WARNING VALID 210900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1921 BUALOI (1921) 985 HPA
AT 12.2N 150.3E TRUKS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 202100UTC AT 13.4N 148.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210900UTC AT 15.0N 147.3E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 200900
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191020065159
2019102006 22W BUALOI 006 02 305 11 SATL 015
T000 122N 1504E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 132N 1488E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 144N 1473E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 159N 1458E 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 175N 1443E 115 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 212N 1420E 115 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 262N 1416E 105 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 329N 1450E 095 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 006
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 22W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 12.2N 150.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 150.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.2N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.4N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.9N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.5N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.2N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.2N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 32.9N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 150.0E.
20OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 334 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 106N1551E 35
2219101912 110N1537E 45
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
2219102006 122N1504E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 22W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 12.2N 150.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 150.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.2N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.4N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.9N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.5N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 21.2N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.2N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 32.9N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 150.0E.
20OCT19. TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 334 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND
210900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 21W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 200600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR STS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 11.9N, 150.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS,


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR STS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 11.9N, 150.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS,
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH REDUCED TCHP, STRONG VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200600UTC 11.9N 150.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 210600UTC 14.6N 147.7E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 220600UTC 17.6N 144.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 230600UTC 21.2N 141.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 240600UTC 26.3N 141.2E 170NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
120HF 250600UTC 32.8N 145.5E 240NM 70.
MOVE NNE 19KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200600UTC 11.9N 150.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 210600UTC 14.6N 147.7E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 220600UTC 17.6N 144.4E 100NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 230600UTC 21.2N 141.5E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 200600
WARNING 200600.
WARNING VALID 210600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1921 BUALOI (1921) 985 HPA
AT 11.9N 150.6E TRUKS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 13.2N 149.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 14.6N 147.7E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 17.6N 144.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 21.2N 141.5E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 26.3N 141.2E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 32.8N 145.5E WITH 240 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 200300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200300UTC 11.6N 151.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 210300UTC 13.8N 148.2E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 220000UTC 16.6N 145.6E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 230000UTC 19.9N 142.3E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 240000UTC 24.4N 140.8E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
117HF 250000UTC 30.8N 143.9E 280NM 70.
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 200300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200300UTC 11.6N 151.2E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 210300UTC 13.8N 148.2E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 220000UTC 16.6N 145.6E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 230000UTC 19.9N 142.3E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 200300
WARNING 200300.
WARNING VALID 210300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1921 BUALOI (1921) 990 HPA
AT 11.6N 151.2E TRUKS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201500UTC AT 12.5N 149.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210300UTC AT 13.8N 148.2E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 200300
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191020015140
2019102000 22W BUALOI 005 02 285 11 SATL SYNP 020
T000 116N 1513E 060 R050 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 124N 1495E 070 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 135N 1481E 080 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 149N 1466E 090 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 164N 1450E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 199N 1423E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 243N 1409E 110 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 310N 1434E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 070 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 11.6N 151.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 151.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 12.4N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 13.5N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 14.9N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.4N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.9N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.3N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 31.0N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 150.8E.
20OCT19. TROPICAL STORM 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 200000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 106N1551E 35
2219101912 110N1537E 45
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219101918 113N1524E 50
2219102000 116N1513E 60
2219102000 116N1513E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 11.6N 151.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 151.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 12.4N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 13.5N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 14.9N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.4N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.9N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 24.3N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 31.0N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 150.8E.
20OCT19. TROPICAL STORM 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 200000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND
210300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 21W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR STS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 11.4N, 151.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1921 BUALOI (1921) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 11.4N 151.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 80NM
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 13.6N 148.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 220000UTC 16.6N 145.6E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 230000UTC 19.9N 142.3E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 240000UTC 24.4N 140.8E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
120HF 250000UTC 30.8N 143.9E 280NM 70.
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 200000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1921 BUALOI (1921) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200000UTC 11.4N 151.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 80NM
FORECAST
24HF 210000UTC 13.6N 148.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 220000UTC 16.6N 145.6E 90NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 230000UTC 19.9N 142.3E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 200000
WARNING 200000.
WARNING VALID 210000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1921 BUALOI (1921) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
990 HPA
AT 11.4N 151.6E TRUKS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 12.2N 150.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 13.6N 148.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 16.6N 145.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 19.9N 142.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 24.4N 140.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 30.8N 143.9E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 192100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 192100UTC 11.4N 152.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 80NM
FORECAST
24HF 202100UTC 13.1N 148.9E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 211800UTC 15.8N 146.3E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 221800UTC 18.9N 143.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 231800UTC 22.8N 140.5E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
117HF 241800UTC 28.1N 141.6E 280NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 192100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 192100UTC 11.4N 152.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 80NM
FORECAST
24HF 202100UTC 13.1N 148.9E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 211800UTC 15.8N 146.3E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 221800UTC 18.9N 143.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 192100
WARNING 192100.
WARNING VALID 202100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1921 BUALOI (1921) 998 HPA
AT 11.4N 152.1E TRUKS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200900UTC AT 12.0N 150.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 202100UTC AT 13.1N 148.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 192100
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191019194229
2019101918 22W BUALOI 004 02 290 13 SATL SYNP 025
T000 114N 1524E 050 R050 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 065 SE QD 075 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 121N 1505E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 130N 1488E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 141N 1474E 080 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 154N 1458E 090 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 186N 1427E 100 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 225N 1406E 105 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 284N 1414E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 11.4N 152.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 152.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 12.1N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.0N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.1N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.4N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.6N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.5N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.4N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 151.9E.
19OCT19. TROPICAL STORM 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 191800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 106N1551E 35
2219101912 110N1537E 45
2219101918 114N1524E 50
2219101918 114N1524E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 11.4N 152.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 152.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 12.1N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.0N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.1N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.4N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.6N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 22.5N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 28.4N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 151.9E.
19OCT19. TROPICAL STORM 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 191800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND
202100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 21W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 191800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 11.0N, 152.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 11.0N, 152.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 11.0N 152.6E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 80NM
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 13.0N 149.3E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 211800UTC 15.8N 146.3E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 221800UTC 18.9N 143.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 231800UTC 22.8N 140.5E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
120HF 241800UTC 28.1N 141.6E 280NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191800UTC 11.0N 152.6E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 80NM
FORECAST
24HF 201800UTC 13.0N 149.3E 70NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 211800UTC 15.8N 146.3E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 221800UTC 18.9N 143.0E 140NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 191800
WARNING 191800.
WARNING VALID 201800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1921 BUALOI (1921) 998 HPA
AT 11.0N 152.6E TRUKS MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 12.0N 150.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 13.0N 149.3E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 15.8N 146.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 18.9N 143.0E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 22.8N 140.5E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 28.1N 141.6E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 191500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191500UTC 10.7N 153.3E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 80NM
FORECAST
24HF 201500UTC 12.2N 149.7E 70NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 211200UTC 15.1N 147.1E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 221200UTC 18.1N 144.0E 180NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 231200UTC 21.9N 141.2E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 241200UTC 26.9N 141.2E 350NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 191500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191500UTC 10.7N 153.3E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 80NM
FORECAST
24HF 201500UTC 12.2N 149.7E 70NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 211200UTC 15.1N 147.1E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 221200UTC 18.1N 144.0E 180NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 191500
WARNING 191500.
WARNING VALID 201500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1921 BUALOI (1921) 1000 HPA
AT 10.7N 153.3E TRUKS MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200300UTC AT 11.4N 151.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201500UTC AT 12.2N 149.7E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 191200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 10.6N, 155.2E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(BUALOI) STATUS. TS BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 10.7N, 153.9E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 1921 BUALOI (1921)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 10.6N, 155.2E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(BUALOI) STATUS. TS BUALOI IS LOCATED AT 10.7N, 153.9E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND
INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 191500
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191019133805
2019101912 22W BUALOI 003 02 285 14 SATL 030
T000 110N 1537E 045 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 117N 1513E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 124N 1495E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 132N 1480E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 144N 1464E 085 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 175N 1433E 095 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 212N 1411E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 251N 1401E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 11.0N 153.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 153.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 11.7N 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 12.4N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 13.2N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 14.4N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.5N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.2N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.1N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 153.1E.
19OCT19. TROPICAL STORM 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 541
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 106N1551E 35
2219101912 110N1537E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 11.0N 153.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0N 153.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 11.7N 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 12.4N 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 13.2N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 14.4N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.5N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.2N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 25.1N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 153.1E.
19OCT19. TROPICAL STORM 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 541
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
21W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1921 BUALOI (1921) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191200UTC 10.7N 153.9E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 80NM
FORECAST
24HF 201200UTC 12.5N 150.0E 70NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 211200UTC 15.1N 147.1E 120NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 221200UTC 18.1N 144.0E 180NM 70.
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 231200UTC 21.9N 141.2E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 241200UTC 26.9N 141.2E 350NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1921 BUALOI (1921) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191200UTC 10.7N 153.9E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 80NM
FORECAST
24HF 201200UTC 12.5N 150.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 211200UTC 15.1N 147.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 221200UTC 18.1N 144.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 191200
WARNING 191200.
WARNING VALID 201200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1921 BUALOI (1921) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1000 HPA
AT 10.7N 153.9E TRUKS MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 11.7N 151.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 12.5N 150.0E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 15.1N 147.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 18.1N 144.0E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 21.9N 141.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 26.9N 141.2E WITH 350 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 190900
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191019071720
2019101906 22W TWENTYTWO 002 02 290 16 SATL 020
T000 108N 1552E 035 R034 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 115N 1526E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 121N 1504E 060 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 129N 1487E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 138N 1472E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 164N 1440E 085 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 201N 1410E 095 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 246N 1392E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 10.8N 155.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 155.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 11.5N 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 12.1N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 12.9N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 13.8N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.4N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.1N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.6N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 154.6E.
19OCT19. TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTY-TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
628 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 102N1567E 30
2219101906 108N1552E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 10.8N 155.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 155.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 11.5N 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 12.1N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 12.9N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 13.8N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.4N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 20.1N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 24.6N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 154.6E.
19OCT19. TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTY-TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
628 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
21W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 190300
WARNING ATCG MIL 22W NWP 191019013358
2019101900 22W TWENTYTWO 001 02 290 16 SATL 040
T000 103N 1567E 030
T012 111N 1539E 045 R034 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 117N 1517E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 123N 1497E 060 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 131N 1481E 060 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 155N 1449E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 182N 1418E 085 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 217N 1393E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 10.3N 156.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 156.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 11.1N 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 11.7N 151.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 12.3N 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 13.1N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 15.5N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 18.2N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.7N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 10.5N 156.0E.
19OCT19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 722 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB,
HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z,
192100Z AND 200300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W
//
2219101518 40N1779E 15
2219101600 46N1768E 15
2219101606 53N1759E 15
2219101612 60N1750E 15
2219101618 65N1741E 15
2219101700 76N1719E 15
2219101706 81N1670E 15
2219101712 80N1658E 15
2219101718 80N1645E 15
2219101800 80N1638E 20
2219101806 87N1622E 20
2219101812 92N1602E 20
2219101818 97N1582E 20
2219101900 103N1567E 30
NNNN

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Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 10.3N 156.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 156.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 11.1N 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 11.7N 151.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 12.3N 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 13.1N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 15.5N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 18.2N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.7N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 10.5N 156.0E.
19OCT19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 722 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB,
HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z,
192100Z AND 200300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W
(NEOGURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
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