Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PABLO-19
in Portugal

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 281440
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Pablo Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 28 2019

Cold waters of 16C and increasing shear caused the deep convection
near Pablo's center to dissipate early this morning, and the
cyclone now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds and
showers. This lack of deep convection has caused Pablo to now
become post-tropical. A recent ASCAT pass showed an area of 30 to
35 kt winds northwest of the center of Pablo, and the initial
intensity is set to 35 kt based on those data. In addition, the
scatterometer data showed a much larger area of gale-force
winds well to the north of, but not directly associated with
Pablo.

The post-tropical cyclone will move slowly north to northwest over
the next day or so, until it is absorbed by a much larger
mid-latitude low to its west. The gales occurring north of the
Pablo are expected to persist at least until it is absorbed.

Additional information on this system can be found in:

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50
LFPW and on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header
FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast/.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 46.8N 17.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 29/0000Z 47.4N 17.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 29/1200Z 48.5N 18.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 281438
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Pablo Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 28 2019

...COLD WATERS FINALLY TAKE THEIR TOLL ON PABLO...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.8N 17.7W
ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM NE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Pablo
was located near latitude 46.8 North, longitude 17.7 West. Pablo is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a slow north to
northwest motion is expected over the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate by Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. Gale-force winds, some of which are not directly
associated with Pablo, are expected to persist well to the north of
the cyclone through at least Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Pablo.

Additional information on this system can be found in:

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50
LFPW and on the web at:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2

High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header
FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at:
metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast/.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 281438
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PABLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019
1500 UTC MON OCT 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.8N 17.7W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 420SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.8N 17.7W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 46.6N 17.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 47.4N 17.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 48.5N 18.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.8N 17.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE UNDER WMO HEADER
FQNT50 LFPW...AND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE
UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 280835
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
500 AM AST Mon Oct 28 2019

Convection associated with Pablo has decreased significantly in both
coverage and vertical depth during the past 6 hours, and the system
barely meets the convective criterion to be classified as a tropical
cyclone. What bit of convection that does remain is limited to the
southeastern quadrant. The advisory intensity of 45 kt is based on
a TAFB T-number classification of T3.0/45 kt and an earlier ASCAT
pass that showed some 45-kt vectors present in the southeastern
quadrant.

Pablo made a jog toward the northwest since the previous advisory,
but the small cyclone now appears to be moving slowly northward or
360/04 kt. The latest model guidance remains in reasonable
agreement that Pablo and its remnants will move slowly northward
for the next day or so around the northeastern periphery of a large
extratropical centered several hundred miles to the southwest.
Pablo is expected to merge with the frontal zone and become
post-tropical later today.

Some additional weakening is likely during the next 24 hours due
to Pablo moving over even cooler sea-surface temperatures than the
16.5 deg C water that the cyclone is currently passing over.

Pablo's 34-kt wind radii have been separated from the larger parent
extratropical low's wind field based on late-arriving ASCAT surface
wind data that indicated that Pablo's small wind field a had
detached from the larger wind radii associated with the broad
extratropical low. Additional information on this complex low
pressure system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
NOAA National Weather Service High Seas Forecasts under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 46.6N 17.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 47.3N 17.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 29/0600Z 48.1N 17.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 280833
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pablo Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
500 AM AST Mon Oct 28 2019

...PABLO CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.6N 17.5W
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM NE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pablo was
located near latitude 46.6 North, longitude 17.5 West. Pablo is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue until Pablo dissipates Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is expected during the next 24 hours, and Pablo
should transition to a post-tropical cyclone later this morning and
dissipate on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 280833
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM PABLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019
0900 UTC MON OCT 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.6N 17.5W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 420SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.6N 17.5W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 46.4N 17.5W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 47.3N 17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 48.1N 17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.6N 17.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 280355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.10.2019

HURRICANE PABLO ANALYSED POSITION : 45.6N 17.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.10.2019 0 45.6N 17.1W 991 39
1200UTC 28.10.2019 12 46.4N 17.7W 996 38
0000UTC 29.10.2019 24 46.6N 16.0W 1000 37
1200UTC 29.10.2019 36 47.8N 13.9W 1005 36
0000UTC 30.10.2019 48 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 280354

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 280354

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.10.2019

HURRICANE PABLO ANALYSED POSITION : 45.6N 17.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.10.2019 45.6N 17.1W MODERATE
12UTC 28.10.2019 46.4N 17.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.10.2019 46.6N 16.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2019 47.8N 13.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 280354

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 280238
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019

Shortly after the release of the previous advisory, deep convection
associated with Pablo finally began to decrease in both coverage and
organization. Convection has become confined to the southern
portion of the circulation and the eye is no longer apparent in
conventional satellite imagery, although a low-level eye feature was
still noted in a recent GMI microwave overpass. The initial
intensity has been reduced to 60 kt, which is a blend of the latest
Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB.

Pablo is approaching a frontal boundary that lies just to the north
of the cyclone, and is also moving over SSTs of around 17C. This
should cause the deep convection to continue to wane overnight, and
Pablo is expected to become extratropical when it merges with the
aforementioned front on Tuesday. The global models indicate that
the post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed by a much larger
extratropical low to its west by Tuesday morning.

Recent microwave and satellite fixes show that Pablo's forward speed
has begun to slow as expected, and its initial motion is now north
or 360/12 kt. The dynamical models indicate that Pablo will
continue to decelerate overnight as it moves generally northward. A
slow northward motion should then continue on Monday as Pablo merges
with the frontal zone and becomes post-tropical.

The 12- and 24-h forecast wind radii were adjusted outward to
account for the area of gale-force winds north of the frontal
boundary that Pablo is expected to merge with late Monday or early
Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 46.0N 17.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 47.0N 17.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 29/0000Z 48.2N 17.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 280238
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pablo Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019

...PABLO WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TUESDAY
MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.0N 17.1W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM NE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pablo was
located near latitude 46.0 North, longitude 17.1 West. Pablo is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower northward
motion is expected later tonight and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the
next 24 hours, and Pablo should transition to a post-tropical
cyclone Monday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 280236
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM PABLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019
0300 UTC MON OCT 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.0N 17.1W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 420SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.0N 17.1W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.6N 17.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 47.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 50SE 30SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 48.2N 17.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 50SE 0SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.0N 17.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 272032
TCDAT3

Hurricane Pablo Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
500 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019

Pablo continues to have a remarkably impressive appearance for a
tropical cyclone over such cold waters. The hurricane's eye remains
evident in most satellite imagery channels, with a solid ring of
cloud tops colder than 50C surrounding it. This maintenance of the
deep convection can be attributed to an environment of very cold
temperatures aloft, which can allow for the hurricane to remain
intact over waters colder than those typically observed. The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB remains unchanged
from 6 hours ago, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have
increased slightly. The initial advisory intensity has been
increased to 70 kt, and this could be a little conservative.

There are strong low-level easterlies associated with a baroclinic
zone and frontal boundary located a couple hundred miles north of
Pablo. The hurricane is expected to begin interacting with this zone
soon, which combined with even cooler waters should make the cyclone
lose its tropical characteristics within the next 24 hours. The
system is then expected to become absorbed by the circulation of a
much larger low as it approaches from the west in a couple of days.

The initial motion is now 020/20 kt. There is significant spread in
the model guidance beyond 24 hours, as the ECMWF and UKMET turn the
post-tropical cyclone to the northeast, while the remainder of the
guidance turns it northwest. The official forecast follows the
majority of the guidance and the previous forecast. In this
scenario, Pablo is expected to turn northward and slow its forward
motion tonight as it approaches the frontal zone. Then, a turn
toward the northwest on Monday is expected as the larger low to its
west begins to steer the cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 44.7N 17.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 46.5N 16.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 47.7N 17.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 29/0600Z 49.0N 18.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 272031
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Pablo Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
500 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019

...PABLO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.7N 17.2W
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM NE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Pablo was located
near latitude 44.7 North, longitude 17.2 West. Pablo is moving
toward the north-northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). A turn to the
north then northwest along with a decrease in forward speed is
expected tonight through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is expected to begin tonight and Pablo should
transition to a post-tropical cyclone on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 272031
TCMAT3

HURRICANE PABLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019
2100 UTC SUN OCT 27 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.7N 17.2W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 70SE 40SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 360SE 420SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.7N 17.2W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.1N 17.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 46.5N 16.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 47.7N 17.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 49.0N 18.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.7N 17.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 271555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 27.10.2019

TROPICAL STORM PABLO ANALYSED POSITION : 41.9N 18.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.10.2019 0 41.9N 18.9W 992 44
0000UTC 28.10.2019 12 45.4N 17.0W 992 39
1200UTC 28.10.2019 24 46.3N 17.1W 997 37
0000UTC 29.10.2019 36 46.6N 15.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 29.10.2019 48 48.3N 13.1W 1006 37
0000UTC 30.10.2019 60 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271555

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 271555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.10.2019

TROPICAL STORM PABLO ANALYSED POSITION : 41.9N 18.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.10.2019 41.9N 18.9W MODERATE
00UTC 28.10.2019 45.4N 17.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2019 46.3N 17.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.10.2019 46.6N 15.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.10.2019 48.3N 13.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271555

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 271450
TCDAT3

Hurricane Pablo Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019

Satellite imagery shows that Pablo has continued to maintain a
small eye, and that the eyewall cloud tops have recently cooled.
In addition, early morning microwave satellite intensity estimates,
as well as the CIMSS satellite consensus, indicate that Pablo has
become a hurricane. The initial intensity is increased to 65 kt as
a blend between the subjective estimate from TAFB and the higher
SATCON estimate, and it is possible this is a little conservative.
The intensification has occurred while Pablo is over sea surface
temperatures of 19-20C, and it is likely that cold mid- to
upper-level air temperatures have allowed the cyclone to maintain
deep convection and strengthen over water temperatures where
tropical cyclones normally weaken.

The initial motion is now 030/28. The cyclone is expected to turn
northward and slow its forward motion as it approaches a frontal
system to the north during the next 12-24 h, and this will be
followed by a turn toward the northwest as a large mid-latitude low
over the north central Atlantic becomes the main steering mechanism.
The track guidance has again shifted a little to the east, and the
new forecast track is also nudged a little to the east of the
previous track. Like the previous forecast, it lies close to the
various consensus models.

Pablo should encounter even colder water along the forecast track,
and global model guidance suggests it should merge with the frontal
system between 12-24 h. This combination should cause Pablo to
weaken and become an extratropical cyclone. Thereafter, the system
should be absorbed by the much larger low to its west between 48-72
h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 42.8N 18.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 45.3N 17.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 46.9N 17.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 29/0000Z 47.9N 18.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 29/1200Z 49.5N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 271449
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Pablo Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019

...PABLO BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES QUICKLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.8N 18.3W
ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM NE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Pablo was located
near latitude 42.8 North, longitude 18.3 West. Pablo is moving
toward the north-northeast near 32 mph (52 km/h), and this motion
should continue with a decrease in forward speed today. A turn
toward the north and northwest and an additional decrease in forward
speed are expected tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin this afternoon,
and Pablo is expected to become post-tropical on Monday.

Pablo remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 271449
TCMAT3

HURRICANE PABLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019
1500 UTC SUN OCT 27 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.8N 18.3W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 28 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 70SE 40SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 360SE 360SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.8N 18.3W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.9N 18.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 45.3N 17.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 46.9N 17.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 47.9N 18.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...250NE 50SE 50SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 49.5N 20.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.8N 18.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 270832
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
500 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019

Microwave satellite imagery indicates that Pablo has maintained a
small mid-level eye feature for at least the past 18 hours, and
the eye has also been evident in infrared imagery for the past 6
hours. The most recent Dvorak satellite intensity estimate was T3.0,
which was held down due to constraints even though the eye pattern
supports an intensity of 65 kt. Latest UW-CIMSS objective ADT and
SATCON intensity estimates are T4.4/75 kt and 64 kt, respectively.
Based on a blend of the TAFB and UW-CIMSS values, along with the
5- to 8-nmi-diameter eye, the intensity has been increased to 60 kt,
which could be conservative due to the the cyclone's relatively fast
forward speed.

Pablo has continued to accelerate and the initial motion estimate is
now 045/35 kt. The latest model guidance remains in good agreement
that during the next 48 hours, Pablo should slow down while making a
counter-clockwise track around the northeastern periphery of the
larger extratropical low that the small cyclone is embedded within.
The tightly packed guidance suite has shifted to the right of the
previous advisory track, and the new NHC forecast track has been
adjusted in that direction, close to the various consensus models.

Pablo is currently located over 20 deg C sea-surface temperatures
(SST), with colder water near 15 deg C ahead of the cyclone. Model
forecast soundings indicate that mid- and upper-level temperatures
will be warming, and when combined with the cooler SSTs, will result
in stabilization of the troposphere. This will cause convection to
steadily weaken and erode by 12 h, resulting in Pablo degenerating
into a post-tropical extratropical low pressure system in 24 h, if
not sooner. The small cyclone is forecast to dissipate or become
absorbed by the larger parent extratropical low in the 48-72 h
forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 40.7N 20.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 43.8N 17.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 46.2N 17.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 28/1800Z 46.9N 18.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 29/0600Z 48.3N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 270831
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pablo Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
500 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019

...PABLO STRENGTHENS WHILE ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.7N 20.0W
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM ENE OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pablo was
located near latitude 40.7 North, longitude 20.0 West. Pablo is
moving toward the northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h), and this motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected through this morning. A
turn toward the north-northeast and north is forecast this afternoon
and tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast to begin this
afternoon, and Pablo is expected to become post-tropical by tonight
or early Monday.

Pablo remains a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km), mainly to the southeast of
the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 270831
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM PABLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019
0900 UTC SUN OCT 27 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 20.0W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 70SE 40SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 240SE 180SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 20.0W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 20.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 43.8N 17.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 46.2N 17.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 46.9N 18.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...250NE 50SE 50SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 48.3N 20.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.7N 20.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 270355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 27.10.2019

TROPICAL STORM PABLO ANALYSED POSITION : 37.2N 23.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.10.2019 0 37.2N 23.9W 997 36
1200UTC 27.10.2019 12 41.9N 18.9W 993 41
0000UTC 28.10.2019 24 45.8N 17.8W 992 39
1200UTC 28.10.2019 36 46.6N 20.0W 996 37
0000UTC 29.10.2019 48 47.1N 20.2W 1000 36
1200UTC 29.10.2019 60 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 270355

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 270355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.10.2019

TROPICAL STORM PABLO ANALYSED POSITION : 37.2N 23.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.10.2019 37.2N 23.9W MODERATE
12UTC 27.10.2019 41.9N 18.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.10.2019 45.8N 17.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2019 46.6N 20.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.10.2019 47.1N 20.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 270355

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 270232
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM PABLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019
0300 UTC SUN OCT 27 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 22.6W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 70SE 40SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 240SE 180SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 22.6W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 23.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 41.0N 20.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 70SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 44.1N 19.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 46.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...250NE 50SE 50SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 47.1N 21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.2N 22.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 262031
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
500 PM AST Sat Oct 26 2019

Pablo has become a little better organized during the past several
hours, with a small eye becoming somewhat better defined. However,
the various satellite intensity estimates have remained near 45 kt.
Based on the increased organization since the the 40-45 kt winds
seen in earlier scatterometer data, the initial intensity is now
set at 50 kt.

Pablo has turned northeastward and accelerated, with the initial
motion now 055/22. This motion should bring the small core of the
storm near or over the eastern Azores during the next several hours.
After that, the tropical storm should turn northward and eventually
northwestward as a developing mid-latitude low to the west becomes
the dominant steering mechanism. The guidance has shifted a bit to
the east since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is
similar to, but east of, the previous forecast.

Pablo should slow weaken as it moves into an environment of colder
sea surface temperatures and increasing shear, and a developing
frontal zone near the cyclone should lead to the system becoming
extratropical by 36 h. The global models continue to forecast the
system to merge with the mid-latitude low to the west between
48-72 h, so the intensity forecast again shows dissipation during
that time.

Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low,
which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the
Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included
the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products
already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the
Azores.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 36.3N 25.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 39.3N 22.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 42.7N 20.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 44.9N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/1800Z 46.3N 21.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 262031
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pablo Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
500 PM AST Sat Oct 26 2019

...PABLO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN AZORES DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 25.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pablo was
located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 25.6 West. Pablo is
moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-
northeast and north is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track,
the small core of Pablo will pass near or over the eastern Azores
during the next several hours.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Pablo is likely to become extratropical late Sunday or Sunday
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Since Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which
itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the
Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included
the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products
already account for the strong winds and high waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 262031
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM PABLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019
2100 UTC SAT OCT 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 25.6W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 10NE 30SE 40SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 25.6W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 26.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 39.3N 22.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT... 10NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 42.7N 20.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 50SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 44.9N 20.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 50SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 46.3N 21.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 25.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 261556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 26.10.2019

TROPICAL STORM PABLO ANALYSED POSITION : 35.1N 29.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.10.2019 0 35.1N 29.0W 998 31
0000UTC 27.10.2019 12 37.4N 24.3W 998 36
1200UTC 27.10.2019 24 41.7N 19.8W 994 39
0000UTC 28.10.2019 36 45.3N 18.3W 994 39
1200UTC 28.10.2019 48 47.0N 19.2W 998 37
0000UTC 29.10.2019 60 48.1N 21.3W 1002 35
1200UTC 29.10.2019 72 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 261555

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 261555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.10.2019

TROPICAL STORM PABLO ANALYSED POSITION : 35.1N 29.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.10.2019 35.1N 29.0W MODERATE
00UTC 27.10.2019 37.4N 24.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.10.2019 41.7N 19.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.10.2019 45.3N 18.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.10.2019 47.0N 19.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2019 48.1N 21.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 261555

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 261440
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 26 2019

Pablo has changed little in organization since the last advisory.
The small cyclone is maintaining an area of banded convection near
the center, and there have been occasional appearances of an
eye-like feature. Recent scatterometer overpasses show several wind
vectors of 40-45 kt, so the initial intensity is nudged upward to
45 kt.

The initial motion is now 090/14, a little faster than before.
Pablo is expected to turn northeastward during the next few hours,
with the small core of the storm passing near or over the eastern
Azores tonight. After that, the tropical storm should turn
northward and eventually northwestward as it, as well as the
surrounding larger low pressure area, become steered by another
mid-latitude low pressure area developing over the north central
Atlantic. The first 24 h of the new forecast track is adjusted
somewhat to the east of the previous track based on the initial
position and motion, with only small changes made thereafter. The
new track lies near the various consensus models.

Little significant change in strength is expected during the next
24 h or so while Pablo moves through an environment that is unstable
enough to support deep convection. After that time, colder sea
surface temperatures, increasing shear, and a developing frontal
zone near the cyclone should lead to the system becoming
extratropical. The global models continue to forecast the system to
merge with the mid-latitude low to the west between 48-72 h, so the
intensity forecast shows dissipation during that time.

Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low,
which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the
Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included
the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products
already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the
Azores.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 35.2N 28.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 37.4N 25.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 40.8N 22.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 43.5N 21.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/1200Z 45.3N 21.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 261439
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pablo Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 26 2019

...PABLO SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN AZORES TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 28.1W
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pablo was
located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 28.1 West. Pablo is
moving toward the east near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later
today, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and north on
Sunday. On the forecast track, the small core of Pablo will pass
near or over the eastern Azores tonight.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant
change in strength is anticipated, and Pablo is expected to become
an extratropical cyclone on Sunday or Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Since Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which
itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the
Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included
the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products
already account for the strong winds and high waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 261439
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM PABLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019
1500 UTC SAT OCT 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 28.1W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 40SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 28.1W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 29.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 37.4N 25.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 40.8N 22.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 43.5N 21.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 45.3N 21.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 28.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 260837
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
500 AM AST Sat Oct 26 2019

Pablo remains a small cyclone, and recently the eye-like feature
that was noted in earlier satellite images is no longer evident.
Since the system continues to have an area of deep convection
concentrated near the center, it should still be classified as a
tropical cyclone. The current intensity is held at 40 kt, in
general agreement with the most recent estimate from TAFB, and
pending a new scatterometer overpass. Pablo is embedded within a
much larger cyclonic circulation that is also producing gale-force
winds well to the north and northwest of the center.

The tropical storm is moving a little south of east at around 8 kt.
A turn toward the northeast and north is expected over the next
couple of days as Pablo moves around the periphery of a large
deep-layer trough over the eastern Atlantic The official forecast
is a little faster than the previous one but slightly slower than
the latest corrected dynamical model consensus.

Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so
while Pablo moves through an environment that is unstable enough to
support deep convection. However, by 36 hours the cyclone will be
passing over waters of 18 deg C or colder. This should result in
the system becoming an extratropical low around that time. In 2-3
days, the global models show the post-tropical low merging with
a larger low over the north Atlantic.

Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low,
which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the
Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included
the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products
already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the
Azores.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 35.3N 30.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 36.6N 27.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 39.5N 23.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 43.0N 21.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/0600Z 45.3N 21.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/0600Z 47.5N 22.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 260836
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pablo Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
500 AM AST Sat Oct 26 2019

...PABLO EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.3N 30.3W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pablo was
located near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 30.3 West. Pablo is
moving toward the east-southeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to
the east is expected this morning, followed by a faster
northeastward or north-northeastward motion later today and
Sunday. On the forecast track, the small core of Pablo will pass
near or over the Azores tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is anticipated, and Pablo is
expected to become an extratropical cyclone in a day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Since Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which
itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the
Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included
the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products
already account for the strong winds and high waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 260835
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM PABLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019
0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 30.3W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 30.3W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 30.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 36.6N 27.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 39.5N 23.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 43.0N 21.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 45.3N 21.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 47.5N 22.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...300NE 0SE 0SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.3N 30.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 260355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 26.10.2019

TROPICAL STORM OLGA ANALYSED POSITION : 27.2N 92.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.10.2019 0 27.2N 92.5W 1001 41
1200UTC 26.10.2019 12 30.8N 90.5W 999 37
0000UTC 27.10.2019 24 38.9N 88.3W 987 32
1200UTC 27.10.2019 36 43.8N 84.0W 993 38
0000UTC 28.10.2019 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM PABLO ANALYSED POSITION : 35.6N 31.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.10.2019 0 35.6N 31.9W 994 35
1200UTC 26.10.2019 12 35.0N 29.6W 999 32
0000UTC 27.10.2019 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 31.7N 31.7E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.10.2019 0 31.7N 31.7E 1007 28
1200UTC 26.10.2019 12 30.7N 32.9E 1007 27
0000UTC 27.10.2019 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.3N 135.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.10.2019 48 11.7N 135.4W 1005 22
1200UTC 28.10.2019 60 12.3N 135.4W 1007 23
0000UTC 29.10.2019 72 12.6N 135.7W 1007 21
1200UTC 29.10.2019 84 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 260355

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 260355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.10.2019

TROPICAL STORM OLGA ANALYSED POSITION : 27.2N 92.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.10.2019 27.2N 92.5W WEAK
12UTC 26.10.2019 30.8N 90.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.10.2019 38.9N 88.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 27.10.2019 43.8N 84.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM PABLO ANALYSED POSITION : 35.6N 31.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.10.2019 35.6N 31.9W MODERATE
12UTC 26.10.2019 35.0N 29.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.3N 135.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.10.2019 11.7N 135.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 28.10.2019 12.3N 135.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.10.2019 12.6N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 260355

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 260240
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 25 2019

Pablo continues to exhibit a tight circulation with an occasional
eye feature evident in satellite images, which is why the system is
classified a tropical storm. However, a larger look at the east
Atlantic reveals that Pablo is a tiny feature within a broad
extratropical cyclone. The initial wind speed is held at 40 kt,
which is based on a recent ASCAT-C overpass that showed a small
area of tropical-storm-force winds near the center. It should be
noted that a much larger area of winds of about the same strength,
associated with the parent extratropical low, exist to the north and
west of Pablo.

The small tropical storm is moving east-southeastward at 8 kt as
the overall trough continues to dig in that direction. A turn to
the east should occur by early Saturday, followed by a faster
northeastward or north-northeastward motion by Saturday night,
taking the cyclone across the Azores. By the end of the weekend and
early next week, a slower northward motion seems likely before the
storm is absorbed by another extratropical low to its west. The NHC
track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Pablo could strengthen a little during the next 24 hours while it
remains in unstable conditions and over waters that should support
some convection. However, the system is expected to move over
sharply colder waters Saturday night and Sunday, and that should
cause Pablo to lose its tropical characteristics. The models show
the extratropical low dissipating or becoming absorbed by another
extratropical low in a little more than 3 days.

Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low,
which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the
Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included
the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products
already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the
Azores.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 35.5N 31.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 35.6N 28.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 37.7N 25.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 41.2N 22.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/0000Z 44.0N 21.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/0000Z 47.3N 20.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 260239
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pablo Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 25 2019

...COMPACT TROPICAL STORM PABLO HOLDING ITS STRENGTH OVER THE
EAST ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 31.1W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pablo was
located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 31.1 West. Pablo is
moving toward the east-southeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn to
the east is expected overnight, followed by a faster northeastward
or north-northeastward motion late Saturday and Sunday. On
the forecast track, the small core of Pablo will pass near or over
the Azores by Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is anticipated, and Pablo is
expected to become an extratropical cyclone in a day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Since Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which
itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the
Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included
the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products
already account for the strong winds and high waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 260239
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM PABLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019
0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 31.1W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 31.1W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 31.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 35.6N 28.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 37.7N 25.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 41.2N 22.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 44.0N 21.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 47.3N 20.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...300NE 0SE 0SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.5N 31.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 252036
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
500 PM AST Fri Oct 25 2019

High-resolution visible satellite imagery gave us a surprise today.
A tropical cyclone has formed within a larger extratropical cyclone
in the northeastern Atlantic. This is not unique and has occurred
several times in the past, primarily during the latter part of the
hurricane season. Pablo is a very small-scale tropical cyclone, but
ASCAT data clearly show a well-defined but small circulation with
40-kt winds embedded within the larger low. This is the intensity
assigned to the cyclone for this advisory. The cloud pattern
consists of an eye-type feature surrounded by a ring of deep
convection. Given the small size of the cyclone, and the baroclinic
environment, the intensity forecast is highly uncertain. At this
time, the NHC forecast calls for a small increase in the winds and
for the cyclone to become extratropical in about 36 hours. However,
this transition could occur sooner than anticipated.

Pablo is currently moving toward the east-southeast at about 9 kt
while embedded within the circulation of the larger extratropical
low. Pablo should then turn toward the northeast with some increase
in forward speed, as indicated by the multi-model consensus aids.
In fact, all the models are in very good agreement, and the NHC
forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope.

Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low,
which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the
Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included
the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products
already account for the strong winds and high waves.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 35.8N 32.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 35.3N 30.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 36.3N 26.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 40.0N 23.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 43.0N 21.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/1800Z 46.5N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 252035
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pablo Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
500 PM AST Fri Oct 25 2019

...SMALL TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.8N 32.2W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pablo was
located near latitude 35.8 North, longitude 32.2 West. Pablo is
moving toward the east-southeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a gradual
turn toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed. On
this track, the small core of Pablo will pass near or over the
Azores this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is anticipated, and Pablo is
expected to become an extratropical cyclone in a couple of days to
the northeast of the Azores.

Pablo is a very small cyclone and its tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Since Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which
itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the
Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included
the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products
already account for the strong winds and high waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 252035
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM PABLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019
2100 UTC FRI OCT 25 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 32.2W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 32.2W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 32.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 35.3N 30.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 36.3N 26.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 40.0N 23.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 43.0N 21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 46.5N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.8N 32.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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