Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MAHA-19
in India

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 062100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191106184500
2019110618 05A MAHA 031 01 120 06 SATL 015
T000 193N 0682E 030
T012 190N 0690E 025
AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 031
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 19.3N 68.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 68.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.0N 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 68.4E.
06NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273 NM
WEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 12 FEET.//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103118 141N 724E 45
0519110100 146N 715E 45
0519110106 151N 703E 45
0519110112 156N 696E 45
0519110118 158N 692E 45
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110418 193N 635E 105
0519110418 193N 635E 105
0519110418 193N 635E 105
0519110500 196N 634E 100
0519110500 196N 634E 100
0519110500 196N 634E 100
0519110506 197N 635E 90
0519110506 197N 635E 90
0519110506 197N 635E 90
0519110512 197N 638E 85
0519110512 197N 638E 85
0519110512 197N 638E 85
0519110518 198N 649E 70
0519110518 198N 649E 70
0519110518 198N 649E 70
0519110600 198N 663E 60
0519110600 198N 663E 60
0519110606 198N 669E 50
0519110606 198N 669E 50
0519110612 196N 676E 40
0519110618 193N 682E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 062100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 19.8N 67.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 67.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.9N 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.0N 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 19.8N 67.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 67.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.9N 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.0N 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.1N 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 68.3E.
06NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304
NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A DEGRADED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAMPERED BY INCREASED
SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER OF TC 05A. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY A 061040Z SSMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KTS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A 060836Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 45 KTS, A MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (55 KNOTS) AND A
060150Z SMAP PASS SHOWING SWATHS OF 34 KNOTS. ANALYSIS OF THE
ENVIRONMENT INDICATES HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST). TC 05A IS BEING PULLED EASTWARD BY THE UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW WHICH HAS EXTENDED SOUTH INTO THE ARABIAN SEA VIA
TROUGHING. INCREASING VWS, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DISSIPATION IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 36. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
IS PLACED NEAR MODEL CONSENSUS. NAVGEM, GALWEM, AND GFS SUPPORT AN
ALTERNATE MODEL SOLUTION WHERE THE TRACK IS EXTENDED AND TC 05A TURNS
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND TAU 36, RETURNING TO THE ARABIAN SEA. THE
OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK STILL FAVORS THE EASTWARD SOLUTION WITH
DISSIPATION AT TAU 36 AS IT IS MORE DYNAMICALLY SUPPORTED. DESPITE
THIS ABERRATION, THERE IS OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//

NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 061800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 06 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

A)THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M\U2019MAHA) OVER
EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA MOVED EASTWARDS WITH
A SPEED OF 11 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, WEAKENED INTO A CYCLONIC
STORM AND LAY CENTERED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 06TH NOVEMBER, 2019
OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE
19.7 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 67.7 DEG E, ABOUT 300 KM SOUTHWEST OF
PORBANDAR (GUJARAT), 310 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (GUJARAT) AND
350 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIU. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS, WEAKEN FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION BY MORNING
OF TOMORROW, THE 7TH NOVEMBER OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO SKIRT SAURASHTRA COAST
AND LIE CENTERED ABOUT 40 KILOMETERS SOUTH OF DIU AROUND NOON OF 7TH
NOVEMBER AS A DEEP DEPRESSION. CONTINUING TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO WEAKEN FURTHER INTO A
DEPRESSION BY TOMORROW EVENING. (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/07 AT 00 UTC 19.9 N / 69.8 E MAX WIND 35 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/07 AT 12 UTC 20.2 N / 71.2 E MAX WIND 25 KTS
DEEP DEPRESSION (.)

B) THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY
OF BENGAL MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 01 KNOTS DURING
PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 6TH NOVEMBER
2019, OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL, NEAR
LAT.13.5 DEG N AND LONG. 89.3 DEG E, ABOUT 400 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF
MAYA BANDAR (ANDAMAN ISLANDS), ABOUT 810 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
PARADIP (ODISHA), 920 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAGAR ISLANDS (WEST
BENGAL) AND 950 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (BANGLADESH) . IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS
AND INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS. IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME TIME AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS WEST BENGAL AND BANGLADESH COASTS.(.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40
KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
999 HPA. (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/07 AT 00 UTC 14.3 N / 88.6 E MAX WIND 40 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/07 AT 12 UTC 1600 N / 88.0 E MAX WIND 50 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 55 DEG E: N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 74 DEG
E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 71 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 6 DEG N TO E OF 53 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 71 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 6 DEG N TO E OF 53 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 65 DEG E:NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 75 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 5
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 71 DEG E :FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA :SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 71 DEG E :4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA :6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 67 DEG E TO :
CYCLONIC 35/45 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA :N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS BEC N/NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE
S OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 61 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 66 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 66 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 66 DEG E :CYCLONIC
10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 17 TO 22 DEG N TO E OF 67 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 17 TO 22 DEG N TO E OF 67 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-7.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 05/15
KTS TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 45/65 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1) E OF 84 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1) E OF 85 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 65/75 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 83 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 84 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN31 DEMS 061740
QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH (A) SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM MAHA OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST
ARABIAN SEA AND (B) DEEP DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 6TH NOVEMBER, 2019 FOR
WHICH FORECAST IS PREPARED:


(A) SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST
ARABIAN SEA


PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 061200 UTC

PRESENT POSITION: 19.70N/67.70E

POSITION ACCURATE TO 20 KM

PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 090/11KT

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 KT, GUSTS 55 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 030 KM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT

RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



FORECASTS:

06 HRS, VALID AT:

061800Z 19.8ON /68.8OE

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 KT, GUSTS 50 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT





12 HRS, VALID AT:

070000Z 19.90N /69.80 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 KT, GUSTS 45 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

18 HRS, VALID AT:

070600Z 20.0ON /70.40E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 30 KT, GUSTS 40 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



24 HRS, VALID AT:

071200Z 20.2ON /71.20E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 25 KT, GUSTS 35 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

36 HRS, VALID AT:

080000Z 20.4ON /72.20E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 20KT, GUSTS 30 KT





*****









(B) DEEP DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL



PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 061200 UTC

PRESENT POSITION: 13.50N/89.30E

POSITION ACCURATE TO 20 KM

PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 315/14KT

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 30 KT, GUSTS 40 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 030 KM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT

RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



FORECASTS:

06 HRS, VALID AT:

061800Z 13.8ON /88.8OE

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 KT, GUSTS 45 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



12 HRS, VALID AT:

070000Z 14.30N /88.40 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 KT, GUSTS 50 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT



18 HRS, VALID AT:

070600Z 15.2ON /88.10E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 KT, GUSTS 55 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



24 HRS, VALID AT:

071200Z 16.0ON /88.00E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 KT, GUSTS 60 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT





36 HRS, VALID AT:

080000Z 17.4ON /87.90E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 55KT, GUSTS 65 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

48 HRS, VALID AT:

081200Z 18.8ON /87.90E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 65KT, GUSTS 75 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

60 HRS, VALID AT:

090000Z 20.0ON /87.90E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 70KT, GUSTS 80 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

72 HRS, VALID AT:

091200Z 20.6ON /88.00E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 65KT, GUSTS 75 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



84 HRS, VALID AT:

100000Z 20.9ON /88.10E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 65KT, GUSTS 75 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



96 HRS, VALID AT:

101200Z 21.1ON /88.20E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60KT, GUSTS 70 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



108 HRS, VALID AT:

110000Z 21.2ON /88.40E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60KT, GUSTS 70 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

120 HRS, VALID AT:

111200Z 21.7ON /88.60E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 55KT, GUSTS 65 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 061535
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1500 UTC 06 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

A)THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M\U2019MAHA) OVER
EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA MOVED EASTWARDS WITH
A SPEED OF 11 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, WEAKENED INTO A CYCLONIC
STORM AND LAY CENTERED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 06TH NOVEMBER, 2019
OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE
19.7 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 67.7 DEG E, ABOUT 300 KM SOUTHWEST OF
PORBANDAR (GUJARAT), 310 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (GUJARAT) AND
350 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIU. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS, WEAKEN FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION BY MORNING
OF TOMORROW, THE 7TH NOVEMBER OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO SKIRT SAURASHTRA COAST
AND LIE CENTERED ABOUT 40 KILOMETERS SOUTH OF DIU AROUND NOON OF 7TH
NOVEMBER AS A DEEP DEPRESSION. CONTINUING TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO WEAKEN FURTHER INTO A
DEPRESSION BY TOMORROW EVENING. (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/07 AT 00 UTC 19.9 N / 69.8 E MAX WIND 35 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/07 AT 12 UTC 20.2 N / 71.2 E MAX WIND 25 KTS
DEEP DEPRESSION (.)

B) THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY
OF BENGAL MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 01 KNOTS DURING
PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 6TH NOVEMBER
2019, OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL, NEAR
LAT.13.5 DEG N AND LONG. 89.3 DEG E, ABOUT 400 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF
MAYA BANDAR (ANDAMAN ISLANDS), ABOUT 810 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
PARADIP (ODISHA), 920 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAGAR ISLANDS (WEST
BENGAL) AND 950 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (BANGLADESH) . IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS
AND INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS. IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME TIME AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS WEST BENGAL AND BANGLADESH COASTS.(.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40
KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
999 HPA. (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/07 AT 00 UTC 14.3 N / 88.6 E MAX WIND 40 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/07 AT 12 UTC 1600 N / 88.0 E MAX WIND 50 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 55 DEG E: N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 74 DEG
E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 71 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 6 DEG N TO E OF 53 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 71 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 6 DEG N TO E OF 53 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 65 DEG E:NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 75 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 5
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 71 DEG E :FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA :SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 71 DEG E :4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA :6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 67 DEG E TO :
CYCLONIC 35/45 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA :N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS BEC N/NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE
S OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 61 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 66 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 66 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 66 DEG E :CYCLONIC
10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 17 TO 22 DEG N TO E OF 67 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 17 TO 22 DEG N TO E OF 67 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-7.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 05/15
KTS TO THE N OF 3 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 45/65 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1) E OF 84 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1) E OF 85 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 65/75 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 83 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 84 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 061500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 19.8N 67.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 67.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.9N 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.0N 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 061500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191106132009
2019110612 05A MAHA 030 01 090 09 SATL 050
T000 198N 0679E 045 R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 199N 0696E 040 R034 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 200N 0708E 035 R034 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD
T036 201N 0718E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 030
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 19.8N 67.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 67.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.9N 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.0N 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.1N 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 68.3E.
06NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304
NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103118 141N 724E 45
0519110100 146N 715E 45
0519110106 151N 703E 45
0519110112 156N 696E 45
0519110118 158N 692E 45
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110418 193N 635E 105
0519110418 193N 635E 105
0519110418 193N 635E 105
0519110500 196N 634E 100
0519110500 196N 634E 100
0519110500 196N 634E 100
0519110506 197N 635E 90
0519110506 197N 635E 90
0519110506 197N 635E 90
0519110512 197N 638E 85
0519110512 197N 638E 85
0519110512 197N 638E 85
0519110518 198N 649E 70
0519110518 198N 649E 70
0519110518 198N 649E 70
0519110600 198N 663E 60
0519110600 198N 663E 60
0519110606 198N 669E 50
0519110606 198N 669E 50
0519110612 198N 679E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 19.8N 67.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 67.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.9N 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.0N 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.1N 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 68.3E.
06NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304
NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEGRADED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAMPERED BY INCREASED SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF TC 05A. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY A 061040Z SSMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A 060836Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 45 KTS, A MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (55 KNOTS) AND A 060150Z SMAP PASS SHOWING SWATHS OF 34 KNOTS. ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT INDICATES HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). TC 05A IS BEING PULLED EASTWARD BY THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WHICH HAS EXTENDED SOUTH INTO THE ARABIAN SEA VIA TROUGHING. INCREASING VWS, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DISSIPATION IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 36. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR MODEL CONSENSUS. NAVGEM, GALWEM, AND GFS SUPPORT AN ALTERNATE MODEL SOLUTION WHERE THE TRACK IS EXTENDED AND TC 05A TURNS SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND TAU 36, RETURNING TO THE ARABIAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK STILL FAVORS THE EASTWARD SOLUTION WITH DISSIPATION AT TAU 36 AS IT IS MORE DYNAMICALLY SUPPORTED. DESPITE THIS ABERRATION, THERE IS OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 061238
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1300 UTC 06 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

A) THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M\U2019MAHA) OVER
EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA MOVED NEARLY
EASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 08 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY
CENTERED AT 0900 UTC OF 06TH NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER EASTCENTRAL AND
ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 67.1 DEG E, ABOUT 350 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR
(42830), 370 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (42909) AND 420 KM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIU(42914). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY
EASTWARDS, WEAKEN INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS.
THEREAFTER IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS, WEAKEN FURTHER
INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION BY 0000 UTC OF 7TH NOVEMBER OVER NORTHEAST AND
ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO SKIRT
SAURASHTRA COAST AND LIE CENTERED ABOUT 40 KILOMETERS SOUTH OF DIU
AROUND 0600 UTC OF 7TH NOVEMBER AS A DEEP DEPRESSION. CONTINUING TO
MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS, IT WOULD FURTHER WEAKEN INTO A DEPRESSION
BY 1200 UTC OF 07 NOVEMBER, 2019. (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 60
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/06 AT 18 UTC 19.9 N / 69.3 E MAX WIND 45 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/07 AT 06 UTC 20.4 N / 71.2 E MAX WIND 35 KTS
DEEP DEPRESSION (.)

B) THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY
OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY, AND LAY CENTRED AT 0900
UTC OF 6TH NOVEMBER 2019, OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST
BAY OF BENGAL, NEAR LAT.13.4 DEG N AND LONG. 89.3 DEG E, ABOUT 390 KM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAYA BANDAR (43309), ABOUT 810 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF PARADIP (42976), 920 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAGAR ISLANDS (42903)
AND 960 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (41984) . IT IS VERY LIKELY
TO INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND INTO A
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME TIME AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS, TOWARDS WEST BENGAL AND BANGLADESH COASTS.(.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40
KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1001 HPA. (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/06 AT 18 UTC 14.2 N / 88.6 E MAX WIND 40 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/07 AT 06 UTC 15.2 N / 88.1 E MAX WIND 45 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 60 DEG E:NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 74 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 68 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 68 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 55 DEG E:NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 75 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA:N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 56 DEG E FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 56 DEG E :4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 62 DEG E :CYCLONIC 35/45 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 14 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 14 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 68 DEG E CYCLONIC 30/35 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-7.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 30/40 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: WIDESPREAD
RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-7.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 40/45 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 86 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 86 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 061102

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1000 UTC 06 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

A) THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M'MAHA) OVER
EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA MOVED
EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 06 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS
AND LAY CENTERED AT 0600 UTC OF 06TH NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER EASTCENTRAL
AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 66.5 DEG E, ABOUT 390 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR
(42830), 420 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (42909) AND 470 KM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIU(42914). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY
EASTWARDS, WEAKEN INTO A CYCLONIC STORM BY 1200 UTC OF 06 NOVEMBER,
2019. THEREAFTER IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS, WEAKEN
FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION BY 0000 UTC OF 7TH NOVEMBER OVER
NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. IT IS VERY LIKELY
TO SKIRT SAURASHTRA COAST AND LIE CENTERED ABOUT 40 KILOMETERS SOUTH
OF DIU AROUND 0600 UTC OF 7TH NOVEMBER AS A DEEP DEPRESSION.
CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS, IT WOULD FURTHER WEAKEN
INTO A DEPRESSION BY 1200 UTC OF 07 NOVEMBER, 2019 (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 60
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/06 AT 18 UTC 19.9 N / 69.3 E MAX WIND 45 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/07 AT 06 UTC 20.4 N / 71.2 E MAX WIND 35 KTS
DEEP DEPRESSION (.)

B) THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRALAND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY
OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY, AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600
UTC OF 6TH NOVEMBER 2019, OVER EASTCENTRALAND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST
BAY OF BENGAL, NEAR LAT.13.4 DEG N AND LONG. 89.3 DEG E, ABOUT 390
KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAYA BANDAR (43309), ABOUT 810 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP (42976), 920 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAGAR
ISLANDS (42903) AND 960 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (41984) . IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24
HOURS
AND INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS. IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME TIME AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS, TOWARDS WEST BENGAL AND BANGLADESH COASTS (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40
KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1001 HPA. (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/06 AT 18 UTC 14.2 N / 88.6 E MAX WIND 40 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/07 AT 06 UTC 15.2 N / 88.1 E MAX WIND 45 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 60 DEG E:NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 74 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 68 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 68 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 55 DEG E:NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 75 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA:N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 56 DEG E FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 56 DEG E :4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 62 DEG E :CYCLONIC 35/45 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 14 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 14 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 68 DEG E CYCLONIC 30/35 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-7.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 30/40 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: WIDESPREAD
RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-7.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 40/45 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 86 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 86 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN31 DEMS 061056

QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH (A) SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM MAHA OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST
ARABIAN SEA AND (B) DEEP DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL BASED ON 0600 UTC OF 6TH NOVEMBER, 2019 FOR
WHICH FORECAST IS PREPARED:



(A) SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING
NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA



PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 060600 UTC

PRESENT POSITION: 19.70N/66.50E

POSITION ACCURATE TO 20 KM

PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 100/04KT

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 KT, GUSTS 60 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 030 KM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT

RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



FORECASTS:

06 HRS, VALID AT:

061200Z 19.7ON /68.0OE

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 KT, GUSTS 55 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT





12 HRS, VALID AT:

061800Z 19.90N /69.30 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 KT, GUSTS 50 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

18 HRS, VALID AT:

070000Z 20.2ON /70.40E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 KT, GUSTS 45 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



24 HRS, VALID AT:

070600Z 20.4ON /71.20E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 30 KT, GUSTS 40 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

36 HRS, VALID AT:

071800Z 20.6ON /72.10E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 25KT, GUSTS 35 KT
(B) DEEP DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY
OF BENGAL



PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 060600 UTC

PRESENT POSITION: 13.40N/89.30E

POSITION ACCURATE TO 20 KM

PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 000/00KT

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 30 KT, GUSTS 40 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 030 KM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT

RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



FORECASTS:

06 HRS, VALID AT:

061200Z 13.7ON /88.9OE

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 KT, GUSTS 45 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT





12 HRS, VALID AT:

061800Z 14.20N /88.60 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 KT, GUSTS 50 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

18 HRS, VALID AT:

070000Z 14.7ON /88.30E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 KT, GUSTS 55 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



24 HRS, VALID AT:

070600Z 15.2ON /88.10E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 55 KT, GUSTS 60 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT





36 HRS, VALID AT:

071800Z 16.7ON /88.00E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 65KT, GUSTS 75 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

48 HRS, VALID AT:

080600Z 17.5ON /87.90E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 70KT, GUSTS 80 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

60 HRS, VALID AT:

081800Z 18.6ON /87.90E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 70KT, GUSTS 80 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

72 HRS, VALID AT:

090600Z 19.6ON /87.90E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 65KT, GUSTS 75 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



84 HRS, VALID AT:

091800Z 20.4ON /88.00E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 65KT, GUSTS 75 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



96 HRS, VALID AT:

100600Z 20.8ON /88.10E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 65KT, GUSTS 75 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



108 HRS, VALID AT:

101800Z 21.1ON /88.30E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60KT, GUSTS 70 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

120 HRS, VALID AT:

110600Z 21.2ON /88.50E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 55KT, GUSTS 65 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 060900
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 06 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

A) THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M\U2019MAHA) OVER
EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA CONTINUED TO MOVE
EASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 8 KTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTERED
AT 0300 UTC OF 06TH NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING
NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 66.3 DEG
E, ABOUT 400 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR (42830), 440 KM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (42909) AND 490 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
DIU(42914). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY EASTWARDS, WEAKEN INTO A
CYCLONIC STORM BY 1200 UTC OF 06 NOVEMBER, 2019. THEREAFTER IT IS
LIKELY TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS, WEAKEN FURTHER INTO A DEEP
DEPRESSION BY 0000 UTC OF 7TH NOVEMBER OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO SKIRT SAURASHTRA COAST
AND LIE CENTERED ABOUT 40 KMS SOUTH OF DIU AROUND 0600 UTC OF 7TH
NOVEMBER AS A DEEP DEPRESSION CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS,
IT WOULD FURTHER WEAKEN INTO A DEPRESSION BY 1200 UTC OF 07 NOVEMBER,
2019 (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/06 AT 15 UTC 19.8 N / 68.8 E MAX WIND 45 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/07 AT 03 UTC 20.2 N / 70.4 E MAX WIND 35 KTS
DEEP DEPRESSION (.)

B) THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY
OF BENGAL MOVED WESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 2 KTS, AND LAY CENTRED AT
0300 UTC OF 6TH NOVEMBER 2019, OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL, NEAR LAT.13.4 DEG N AND LONG. 89.3 DEG E,
ABOUT 390 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAYA BANDAR (43309), ABOUT 810 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP (42976), 920 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAGAR
ISLANDS (42903) AND 960 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (41984) . IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24
HOURS AND INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 24
HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME MORE
TIME AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS, TOWARDS WEST BENGAL AND ADJOINING
NORTH ODISHA AND BANGLADESH COASTS (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40
KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1001 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/06 AT 15 UTC 14.2 N / 88.5 E MAX WIND 40 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/07 AT 03 UTC 15.5 N / 88.1 E MAX WIND 45 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC W/SW-LY 05/15
KTS TO THE E OF 74 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 64 DEG E:NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 75 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 5
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 64 DEG E FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 64 DEG E :4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 64 DEG E TO N OF 16 DEG N :
CYCLONIC 35/45 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NW-LY 05/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 66 DEG E CYCLONIC 30/35 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-7.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 05/15
KTS TO THE N OF 2 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 30/40 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 85 DEG E: WIDESPREAD
RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 85 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-7.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 40/45 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 84 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 84 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 060900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191106072637
2019110606 05A MAHA 029 01 090 06 SATL 045
T000 198N 0669E 050 R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 198N 0687E 040 R034 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 199N 0701E 035 R034 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD
T036 200N 0712E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 029
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 19.8N 66.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 66.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.8N 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.9N 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.0N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 67.3E.
06NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300
NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.
//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103118 141N 724E 45
0519110100 146N 715E 45
0519110106 151N 703E 45
0519110112 156N 696E 45
0519110118 158N 692E 45
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110418 193N 635E 105
0519110418 193N 635E 105
0519110418 193N 635E 105
0519110500 196N 634E 100
0519110500 196N 634E 100
0519110500 196N 634E 100
0519110506 197N 635E 90
0519110506 197N 635E 90
0519110506 197N 635E 90
0519110512 197N 638E 85
0519110512 197N 638E 85
0519110512 197N 638E 85
0519110518 198N 649E 70
0519110518 198N 649E 70
0519110518 198N 649E 70
0519110600 198N 663E 60
0519110600 198N 663E 60
0519110606 198N 669E 50
0519110606 198N 669E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 060900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 19.8N 66.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 66.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.8N 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.9N 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 19.8N 66.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 66.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.8N 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.9N 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.0N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 67.3E.
06NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300
NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A DEGRADED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAMPERED BY
INCREASED SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF TC 05A. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY A 060551Z GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, PLACED
BETWEEN A 052124Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 49 KTS AND MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0-3.5 (45-55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES. ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT INDICATES HIGH (25-30 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27 DEGREES
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). TC 05A IS BEING PULLED
EASTWARD BY THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WHICH HAS EXTENDED SOUTH
INTO THE ARABIAN SEA VIA TROUGHING. INCREASING VWS AND INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALOFT WILL QUICKLY ERODE THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DISSIPATION IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU
36. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR MODEL CONSENSUS. NAVGEM,
UKMET ENSEMBLE, AND GEFS SUPPORT AN ALTERNATE MODEL SOLUTION WHERE
THE TRACK IS EXTENDED AND TC 05A TURNS SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 48,
RETURNING TO THE ARABIAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK STILL
FAVORS THE EASTWARD SOLUTION WITH DISSIPATION AT TAU 36 AS IT IS
MORE DYNAMICALLY SUPPORTED. DESPITE THIS ABBERATION, THERE IS
OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 060452
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0300 UTC 06 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

A) THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M\U2019MAHA)
OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
EASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 8 KTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, WEAKENED INTO A
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY CENTERED AT 0000 UTC OF 06TH NOVEMBER,
2019 OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA NEAR
LATITUDE 19.8 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 65.8 DEG E, ABOUT 450 KM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR (42830), 490 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL
(42909) AND 540 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIU(42914). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH FURTHER WEAKENING. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
CROSS GUJARAT COAST AROUND DIU AS A CYCLONIC STORM WITH A MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 40-45 KTS GUSTING TO 50 KTS AROUND 0600 UTC
OF 7TH NOVEMBER, 2019 (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/06 AT 12 UTC 19.9 N / 68.2 E MAX WIND 55 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/07 AT 00 UTC 20.5 N / 70.4 E MAX WIND 50 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)

B) THE DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED
OF 5 KTS, INTENSIFED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000
UTC OF THE 6TH NOVEMBER 2019, OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL, NEAR LAT.13.4 DEG N AND LONG. 89.3 DEG E,
ABOUT 390 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAYA BANDAR (43309), ABOUT 810 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP (42976), 920 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAGAR
ISLANDS (42903) AND 960 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (41984) . IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24
HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME MORE
TIME AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS, TOWARDS WEST BENGAL AND ADJOINING
NORTH ODISHA AND BANGLADESH COASTS (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40
KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1001 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/06 AT 12 UTC 14.0 N / 88.6 E MAX WIND 40 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/07 AT 00 UTC 15.3 N / 88.2 E MAX WIND 45 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 60 DEG E:NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 74 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 68 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 68 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 55 DEG E:NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 75 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA:N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 56 DEG E FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 56 DEG E :4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 62 DEG E :CYCLONIC 50/55 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 14 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 14 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 7.0-10.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 68 DEG E CYCLONIC 45/50 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-10.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 30/40 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: WIDESPREAD
RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-7.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 40/45 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 86 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 86 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 060300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 19.8N 66.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 66.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.7N 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.8N 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 060300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191106015815
2019110600 05A MAHA 028 01 090 13 SATL 025
T000 198N 0663E 060 R050 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 197N 0680E 045 R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 198N 0696E 035 R034 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 200N 0710E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 028
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 19.8N 66.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 66.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.7N 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.8N 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.0N 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 66.7E.
06NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103118 141N 724E 45
0519110100 146N 715E 45
0519110106 151N 703E 45
0519110112 156N 696E 45
0519110118 158N 692E 45
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110418 193N 635E 105
0519110418 193N 635E 105
0519110418 193N 635E 105
0519110500 196N 634E 100
0519110500 196N 634E 100
0519110500 196N 634E 100
0519110506 197N 635E 90
0519110506 197N 635E 90
0519110506 197N 635E 90
0519110512 197N 638E 85
0519110512 197N 638E 85
0519110512 197N 638E 85
0519110518 198N 649E 70
0519110518 198N 649E 70
0519110518 198N 649E 70
0519110600 198N 663E 60
0519110600 198N 663E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 19.8N 66.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 66.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.7N 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.8N 69.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.0N 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 66.7E.
06NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303
NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A DEGRADED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WHICH HAS BEGUN TO
SHEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF
TC 05A. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY
A 052327Z SSMI 85 GHZ COLORPCT MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 60 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, PLACED BETWEEN A 052124Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 49 KTS AND MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T4.0 (65 KTS) FROM PGTW AND DEMS, BASED ON THE WEAKENING STRUCTURE
AND DEEP CONVECTION. ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT INDICATES HIGH (25-30
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TC 05A IS BEING PULLED EASTWARD BY THE
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WHICH HAS EXTENDED SOUTH INTO THE ARABIAN
SEA VIA TROUGHING. THIS WESTERLY FLOW BRIEFLY ENHANCED THE OUTFLOW;
HOWEVER, THE CONVERGENT WESTERLIES ALOFT AND INCREASING VWS WILL
QUICKLY ERODE THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISSIPATION IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 36. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED NEAR MODEL CONSENSUS WITH NAVGEM AS AN OUTLIER TO THE NORTH
THROUGH TAU 36. NAVGEM, UKMET ENSEMBLE, AND GEFS SUPPORT AN ALTERNATE
MODEL SOLUTION WHERE THE TRACK IS EXTENDED AND TC 05A TURNS
SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 48, RETURNING TO THE ARABIAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL
JTWC FORECAST TRACK STILL FAVORS THE EASTWARD SOLUTION WITH
DISSIPATION AT TAU 36 AS IT IS MORE DYNAMICALLY SUPPORTED. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 052100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 19.8N 64.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 64.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.7N 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 052100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191105204544
2019110518 05A MAHA 027 01 085 10 SATL 025
T000 198N 0649E 070 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 197N 0664E 060 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 198N 0680E 045 R034 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 199N 0694E 035 R034 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 201N 0705E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 027
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 19.8N 64.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 64.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.7N 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.8N 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.9N 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.1N 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 65.3E.
05NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.
//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103118 141N 724E 45
0519110100 146N 715E 45
0519110106 151N 703E 45
0519110112 156N 696E 45
0519110118 158N 692E 45
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110418 193N 635E 105
0519110418 193N 635E 105
0519110418 193N 635E 105
0519110500 196N 634E 100
0519110500 196N 634E 100
0519110500 196N 634E 100
0519110506 197N 635E 90
0519110506 197N 635E 90
0519110506 197N 635E 90
0519110512 197N 638E 85
0519110512 197N 638E 85
0519110512 197N 638E 85
0519110518 198N 649E 70
0519110518 198N 649E 70
0519110518 198N 649E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 19.8N 64.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 64.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.7N 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.8N 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.9N 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.1N 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 65.3E.
05NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OBSCURED BY
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THERE IS BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE COMPACT
SYSTEM AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE OBSERVED EIR TURNING.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE,
SUPPORTED BY A 051342Z SMAP OF 63 KTS, DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KTS) PGTW, AND A 051450Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 69
KTS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY
HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST)
REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 27 CELSIUS. TC 05A HAS TRACKED EASTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE PREVAILING MID TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AS
THE TROUGHING HAS EXTENDED SOUTH INTO THE ARABIAN SEA. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. AT THAT
POINT, THE TRACK WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CONVERGENT WESTERLY WINDS ALONG
WITH INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TC 05A UNTIL EXPECTED
DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR
MODEL CONSENSUS. AN ALTERNATE MODEL SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY NAVGEM,
UKMET ENSEMBLE, AND GEFS SHOWS TC 05A TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU
48. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK STILL FAVORS THE NORTHEASTWARD
SOLUTION AFTER TAU 48 AS IT APPEARS MORE DYNAMICALLY SUPPORTED.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 051800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 05 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

A)THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS MMAHA) OVER
WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED EASTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF 4 KTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTERED AT 1200
HRS UTC OF 05TH NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING
WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 64.1
DEG E, ABOUT 610 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR (GUJARAT), 660 KM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (GUJARAT) AND 710 KM WEST-SOUTHWESTOF DIU.
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH RAPID WEAKENING.
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS GUJARAT COAST AROUND DIU AS A CYCLONIC
STORM WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 40-45 KTS GUSTING TO 50
KTS AROUND MORNING HOURS OF 7TH NOVEMBER, 2019 (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDSPEED IS 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80
KNOTS.THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/06 AT 00 UTC 19.9 N / 66.1 E MAX WIND 55 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/06 AT 12 UTC 20.2 N / 68.5 E MAX WIND 45 KTS
DEEP DEPRESSION (.)

B) THE DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED
OF 6 KTS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 HRS UTC OF TODAY, THE 5TH NOVEMBER
2019, OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND
NORTH ANDAMAN SEA, NEAR LAT.13.2 DEG N AND LONG. 90.1 DEG E,ABOUT 300
KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAYA BANDAR (ANDAMAN ISLANDS), ABOUT 870 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP (ODISHA), 960 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAGAR
ISLANDS (WEST BENGAL) AND 970 KM NEARLY SOUTH OF KHEPUPARA
(BANGLADESH). IT IS VERYLIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION
DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE SUBSEQUENT
24 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS INITIALLY AND
THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS, TOWARDS WEST BENGAL AND ADJOINING NORTH
ODISHA AND BANGLADESH COASTS (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35
KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1003 HPA (.)
12 HRS VALID 2019/11/06 AT 00 UTC 13.3 N / 90.0 E MAX WIND 35 KTS
DEEP DEPRESSION (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/06 AT 12 UTC 13.5 N / 90.0 E MAX WIND 40 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 60 DEG E:NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 74 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 68 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 68 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 55 DEG E:NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 75 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA:N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 56 DEG E FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 56 DEG E :4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 62 DEG E :CYCLONIC 55/65 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 14 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 14 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 68 DEG E CYCLONIC 45/50 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-10.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 30/35 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: WIDESPREAD
RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-7.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 30/40 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 86 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 86 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 5.0-8.0 MTR (.)
----------------------
TOO:-05/2330 EF

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 051500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 19.8N 63.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 63.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.8N 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 051500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191105133942
2019110512 05A MAHA 026 01 070 03 SATL 040
T000 198N 0638E 085 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 198N 0649E 075 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 197N 0664E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 198N 0683E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 202N 0699E 035
T072 207N 0720E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 026
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 19.8N 63.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 63.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.8N 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.7N 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.8N 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.2N 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 20.7N 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 64.1E.
05NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 349
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.
//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103118 141N 724E 45
0519110100 146N 715E 45
0519110106 151N 703E 45
0519110112 156N 696E 45
0519110118 158N 692E 45
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110418 193N 635E 105
0519110418 193N 635E 105
0519110418 193N 635E 105
0519110500 196N 634E 100
0519110500 196N 634E 100
0519110500 196N 634E 100
0519110506 197N 635E 90
0519110506 197N 635E 90
0519110506 197N 635E 90
0519110512 198N 638E 85
0519110512 198N 638E 85
0519110512 198N 638E 85
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 19.8N 63.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 63.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.8N 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.7N 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.8N 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 20.2N 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 20.7N 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 64.1E.
05NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 349
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OBSCURED BY CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE SYSTEM REMAINS COMPACT WITH AN EMBEDDED CENTER AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON TURNING SEEN IN EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS REFLECTS THE WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS SET BETWEEN A MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) AND A 051249Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 78 KNOTS. TC 05A REMAINS IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND FAVORABLE (27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 05A HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK DUE EAST THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE TURNING SLIGHTLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT TAU 36. AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA, STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM UNTIL IT DISSIPATES AROUND TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR MODEL CONSENSUS. AN ALTERNATE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY NAVGEM, GALWEM, AND GEFS SHOWS TC 05A TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 72. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK STILL FAVORS THE NORTHEASTWARD SOLUTION AFTER TAU 72 AS IT APPEARS MORE DYNAMICALLY SUPPORTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 051230
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1200 UTC 05 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

A) THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M\U2019MAHA)
OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 2 KTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND
LAY CENTERED AT 0900 UTC OF 05TH NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND
ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 63.8 DEG E, ABOUT 640 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR
(42830), 690 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (42909) AND 750 KM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIU (42914). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH RAPID WEAKENING. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS
GUJARAT COAST AROUND DIU AS A CYCLONIC STORM WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED OF 40-45 KTS GUSTING TO 50 KTS AROUND 0300 UTC OF 7TH
NOVEMBER, 2019 (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90
KNOTS.THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/05 AT 18 UTC 19.9 N / 65.7 E MAX WIND 55 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/06 AT 09 UTC 20.1 N / 68.1 E MAX WIND 45 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)

B) THE DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA MOVED WESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 6 KTS
AND LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 5TH NOVEMBER 2019, OVER
EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN
SEA, NEAR LAT.13.1 DEG N AND LONG. 90.4 DEG E, ABOUT 270 KM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAYA BANDAR (43309), ABOUT 890 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF PARADIP (42976), 980 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAGAR ISLANDS (42903)
AND 990 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (41984). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND INTO A
CYCLONIC STORM TILL 0600 UTC OF 6TH NOVEMBER. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS INITIALLY AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS,
TOWARDS WEST BENGAL AND ADJOINING NORTH ODISHA AND BANGLADESH COASTS
(.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDSPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35
KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1003 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/05 AT 21 UTC 13.2 N / 90.2 E MAX WIND 40 KTS
DEPRESSION (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/06 AT 09 UTC 13.3 N / 90.1 E MAX WIND 40 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 75 DEG E:NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 77 DEG E (.)
2)E OF 69 TO 75 DEG E: :N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS
TO THE N OF 7 DEG N (.)
4)REST AREA: VARIABLE 02 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 67 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 67 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 60 DEG E:NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA:N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 58 DEG E :CYCLONIC 50/55 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 14 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 14 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 14 DEG N: 6.0-10.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E CYCLONIC 40/45 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS BEC N/NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE S OF
13 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 64 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 64 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.2 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 30/40 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 35/40 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-8.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 051100

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1000 UTC 05 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

A) THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M\U2019MAHA)
OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA
MOVEDNORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 2 KTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS
AND LAY CENTERED AT 0600 UTC OF 05TH NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL
AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEANEAR LATITUDE 19.8 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 63.7 DEG E, ABOUT 650 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR
(42830), 700 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (42909)) AND 760 KM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIU (42914. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH RAPID WEAKENING. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS
GUJARAT COAST AROUND DIU AS A CYCLONIC STORM WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED OF 40-45 KTS GUSTING TO 50 KTS AROUND 0300 UTC OF 7TH
NOVEMBER, 2019 (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90
KNOTS.THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/05 AT 18 UTC 19.9 N /65.2 E MAX WIND 60 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/06 AT 06 UTC 19.9 N / 67.3 E MAX WIND 50 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)

B) THE DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA MOVED WESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 8 KTS
AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE 5TH NOVEMBER 2019, OVER
EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN
SEA, NEAR LAT.13.1 DEG N AND LONG. 90.7 DEG E, ABOUT 240 KM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAYA BANDAR (43309), ABOUT 900 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF PARADIP (42976), 990 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAGAR ISLANDS (42903)
AND 980 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (41984) . IT IS VERY LIKELY
TO INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND INTO A
CYCLONIC STORM TILL 0600 UTC OF 6TH NOVEMBER. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS INITIALLY AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS,
TOWARDS WEST BENGAL AND ADJOINING NORTH ODISHA AND BANGLADESH COASTS
(.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35
KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1003 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/05 AT 18 UTC 13.2 N / 90.4 E MAX WIND 40 KTS
DEPRESSION (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/06 AT 06 UTC 14.8 N / 89.9 E MAX WIND 55 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 75 DEG E:NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 77 DEG E (.)
2)E OF 69 TO 75 DEG E: :N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS
TO THE N OF 7 DEG N (.)
4)REST AREA: VARIABLE 02 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 67 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 67 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 60 DEG E:NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA:N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 58 DEG E :CYCLONIC 55/60 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 14 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 14 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 14 DEG N: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E CYCLONIC 45/50 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS BEC N/NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE S OF
13 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 64 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 64 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-10.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.2 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 30/40 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 35/40 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-8.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 050900
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 05 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING


A)THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS
M\U2019MAHA) OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA
MOVED NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 02 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS,
WEAKENED INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY CENTERED AT 0300
UTC OF 05TH NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 63.6 DEG E, ABOUT
660 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR (42830), 720 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
VERAVAL (42909) AND 770 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIU (42914). IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING. IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN DIU (42914) AND
PORBANDAR (42830) AS A CYCLONIC STORM WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED OF 40-45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS BY 0000 UTC OF 7TH NOVEMBER,
2019..(.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KNOTS GUSTING TO 95
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 HPA. (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/05 AT 12 UTC 20.0 N /64.7 E MAX WIND 95 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/06 AT 00 UTC 20.2 N / 66.3 E MAX WIND 55 KTS
DEEP DEPRESSION (.)

B) THE DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA MOVED WESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300
UTC OF 5TH NOVEMBER 2019, OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST
BAY OF BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA, NEAR LAT.13.1 DEG N AND LONG.
91.0 DEG E, ABOUT 200 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAYA BANDAR (43309), ABOUT
920 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP (42976), 1000 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
SAGAR ISLANDS (42903) AND 990 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (41984)
. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT
12 HOURS AND INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS. IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS INITIALLY AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS, TOWARDS WEST BENGAL AND ADJOINING NORTH ODISHA
AND BANGLADESH COASTS
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35
KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1003 HPA (.)
PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 75 DEG E:NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 77 DEG E (.)
2)E OF 69 TO 75 DEG E: :N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS
TO THE N OF 7 DEG N (.)
4)REST AREA: VARIABLE 02 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 67 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 67 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 60 DEG E:NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA:N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 58 DEG E :CYCLONIC 65/95 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 14 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 14 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 14 DEG N: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E CYCLONIC 45/75 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS BEC N/NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE S OF
13 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 64 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 64 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.2 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 30/40 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 45/55 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 050900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191105073738
2019110506 05A MAHA 025 01 060 02 SATL 020
T000 197N 0638E 090 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 197N 0648E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 197N 0663E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 198N 0681E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 201N 0697E 035
T072 210N 0727E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 19.7N 63.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 63.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.7N 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.7N 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.8N 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.1N 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.0N 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 64.1E.
05NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.
//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103118 141N 724E 45
0519110100 146N 715E 45
0519110106 151N 703E 45
0519110112 156N 696E 45
0519110118 158N 692E 45
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110418 194N 636E 105
0519110418 194N 636E 105
0519110418 194N 636E 105
0519110500 196N 636E 100
0519110500 196N 636E 100
0519110500 196N 636E 100
0519110506 197N 638E 90
0519110506 197N 638E 90
0519110506 197N 638E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 050900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 19.7N 63.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 63.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.7N 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 19.7N 63.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 63.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.7N 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.7N 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.8N 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.1N 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.0N 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 64.1E.
05NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OBSCURED BY CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE SYSTEM REMAINS COMPACT WITH AN EMBEDDED CENTER AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON TURNING IN EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS REFLECTS THE WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS SUPPORTED BY MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0-5.5 (90-102 KTS) AND A 050645Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 85KTS. TC 05A REMAINS IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND FAVORABLE (27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 05A HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK DUE EAST THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE TURNING SLIGHTLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT TAU 36. AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA, STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM UNTIL IT DISSIPATES AROUND TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR MODEL CONSENSUS. AN ALTERNATE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY NAVGEM, GALWEM, AND GEFS SHOWS TC 05A TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 72. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK STILL FAVORS THE EASTWARD SOLUTION AS IT APPEARS MORE DYNAMICALLY SUPPORTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 050732
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0300 UTC 05 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING


A)THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M'MAHA)
OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 02 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, WEAKENED
INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY CENTERED AT 0300 UTC OF
05TH NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 63.6 DEG E, ABOUT
660 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR (42830), 720 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF VERAVAL (42909) AND 770 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIU (42914). IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO MOVE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN DIU
(42914) AND PORBANDAR (42830) AS A CYCLONIC STORM WITH A MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 40-45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS BY 0000 UTC
OF 7TH NOVEMBER, 2019..(.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KNOTS GUSTING TO
95 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 HPA. (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/05 AT 12 UTC 20.0 N /64.7 E MAX WIND 95 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/06 AT 00 UTC 20.2 N / 66.3 E MAX WIND 55 KTS
DEEP DEPRESSION (.)

B) THE DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA MOVED WESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT
0300 UTC OF 5TH NOVEMBER 2019, OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA, NEAR LAT.13.1 DEG N
AND LONG. 91.0 DEG E, ABOUT 200 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAYA BANDAR
(43309), ABOUT 920 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP (42976), 1000 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAGAR ISLANDS (42903) AND 990 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF KHEPUPARA (41984) . IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP
DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING
THE SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS INITIALLY AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS,
TOWARDS WEST BENGAL AND ADJOINING NORTH ODISHA AND BANGLADESH
COASTS
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO
35 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1003 HPA (.)
PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 75 DEG E:NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 77 DEG E (.)
2)E OF 69 TO 75 DEG E: :N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS
TO THE N OF 7 DEG N (.)
4)REST AREA: VARIABLE 02 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 67 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 67 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 60 DEG E:NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA:N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 58 DEG E :CYCLONIC 65/95 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 14 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 14 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 14 DEG N: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E CYCLONIC 45/75 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS BEC N/NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE S OF
13 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 64 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 64 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.2 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 35/45 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 050500
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0000 UTC 05 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING


A)THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M\u2019MAHA) OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 03 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT 0000 UTC OF 05TH NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 63.6 DEG E, ABOUT 670 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR (42830), 720 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (42909) AND 770 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIU (42914). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARDS DURING NEXT 03 HOURS. THEREAFTER, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN DIU (42914) AND PORBANDAR (42830) AS A CYCLONIC STORM WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 40-45 KMPH GUSTING TO 50 KMPH BY 0000 UTC OF 7TH NOVEMBER, 2019.(.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 HPA. (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/05 AT 12 UTC 20.0 N /64.7 E MAX WIND 95 KTS EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/06 AT 00 UTC 20.2 N / 66.3 E MAX WIND 55 KTS DEEP DEPRESSION (.)

B)THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS , CONCENTRATED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 5TH NOVEMBER 2019, OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA, NEAR LAT.13.1 DEG N AND LONG. 91.5 DEG E, ABOUT 150 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAYA BANDAR (ANDAMAN ISLANDS), ABOUT 950 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP (ODISHA), 1020 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAGAR ISLANDS (WEST BENGAL) AND 1000 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (BANGLA DESH) . IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND INTO A CYCLONIC STROM DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS INITIALLY AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS, TOWARDS ODISHA \u2013 WEST BENGAL COASTS.
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA (.)
PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 75 DEG E:NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 77 DEG E (.)
2)E OF 69 TO 75 DEG E: :N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS
TO THE N OF 7 DEG N (.)
4)REST AREA: VARIABLE 02 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 67 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 67 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 60 DEG E:NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA:N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 58 DEG E :CYCLONIC 65/95 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 14 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 14 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 14 DEG N: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E CYCLONIC 45/75 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS BEC N/NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE S OF
13 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 64 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 64 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.2 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 35/45 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN31 DEMS 050403

QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH EXTREMELY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM MAHA OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING
WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 5TH NOVEMBER, 2019
FOR WHICH FORECAST IS PREPARED:


PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 050000 UTC

PRESENT POSITION: 19.60N/63.60E

POSITION ACCURATE TO 20 KM

PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 320/04KT

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 90 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 030 KM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT

RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT





FORECASTS:

06 HRS, VALID AT:

050600Z 19.9ON /64.0OE

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 80 KT, GUSTS 90 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



12 HRS, VALID AT:

051200Z 20.00N /64.70 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 70 KT, GUSTS 80 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



18 HRS, VALID AT:

051800Z 20.1ON /65.60E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 KT, GUSTS 70 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



24 HRS, VALID AT:

060000Z 20.2ON /66.50E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 55 KT, GUSTS 65 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT





36 HRS, VALID AT:

061200Z 20.5ON /68.50E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45KT, GUSTS 55 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT





48 HRS, VALID AT:

070000Z 21.0ON /70.6O E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 KT, GUSTS 45 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT





60 HRS, VALID AT:

071200Z 21.6ON /72.60 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 25 KT, GUSTS 35 KT



72 HRS, VALID AT:

080000Z 22.0ON /74.1O E=

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 050300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 19.6N 63.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 63.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.8N 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 050300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191105020939
2019110500 05A MAHA 024 01 360 02 SATL 020
T000 196N 0636E 100 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 198N 0640E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 198N 0652E 065 R064 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 198N 0668E 050 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 200N 0685E 040 R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 205N 0710E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 19.6N 63.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 63.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.8N 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.8N 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.8N 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.0N 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.5N 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 63.7E.
05NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.
//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103118 141N 724E 45
0519110100 146N 715E 45
0519110106 151N 703E 45
0519110112 156N 696E 45
0519110118 158N 692E 45
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110418 194N 636E 105
0519110418 194N 636E 105
0519110418 194N 636E 105
0519110500 196N 636E 100
0519110500 196N 636E 100
0519110500 196N 636E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 19.6N 63.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 63.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.8N 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.8N 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.8N 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.0N 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.5N 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 63.7E.
05NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE PREVIOUS EYE HAS FILLED
SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SYSTEM REMAINS COMPACT WITH AN
EMBEDDED CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON TURNING IN EIR
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS REFLECTS A SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS SUPPORTED
BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KTS) BY PGTW, A
042345Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 102KTS, AND A 042144Z
SATCON OF 96 KTS. TC 05A REMAINS IN AN AREA OF STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 05A HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST
AND APPEARS TO BE ROUNDING THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FINISH
RECURVING TO AN EASTWARD TRACK BY TAU 24. AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO DIG FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE ARABIAN SEA
AND BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM, THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN
THIS EASTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER
TAU 24, THESE CONVERGENT WESTERLY WINDS AND INCREASING VWS WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM UNTIL IT DISSIPATES AROUND TAU 72. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 48.
HOWEVER, AN ALTERNATE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY NAVGEM, GALWEM, AND GEFS
SHOWS TC 05A TURNING SOUTHWARD AND THEN BACK TO THE WEST AFTER TAU
72. AT THIS TIME, THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK STILL FAVORS THE
EASTWARD SOLUTION AS IT APPEARS MORE DYNAMICALLY SUPPORTED. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN31 DEMS 042127
QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH EXTREMELY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM MAHA OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING
WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA BASED ON 1800 UTC OF 4TH NOVEMBER, 2019 FOR
WHICH FORECAST IS PREPARED:



PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 041800 UTC

PRESENT POSITION: 19.30N/63.70E

POSITION ACCURATE TO 20 KM

PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 320/04KT

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 100 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 030 KM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT

RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT





FORECASTS:

06 HRS, VALID AT:

050000Z 19.6ON /63.8OE

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 95 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



12 HRS, VALID AT:

050600Z 19.80N /64.10 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 85 KT, GUSTS 95 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



18 HRS, VALID AT:

051200Z 20.0ON /64.70E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 75 KT, GUSTS 85 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



24 HRS, VALID AT:

051800Z 20.1ON /65.60E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 65 KT, GUSTS 75 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT





36 HRS, VALID AT:

060600Z 20.4ON /67.50E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60KT, GUSTS 70 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT





48 HRS, VALID AT:

061800Z 20.8ON /69.6O E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 KT, GUSTS 60 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT





60 HRS, VALID AT:

070600Z 21.5ON /71.60 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 30 KT, GUSTS 40 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



72 HRS, VALID AT:

071800Z 22.0ON /73.5O E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 25 KT, GUSTS 35 KT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 042100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 19.4N 63.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 63.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.7N 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 042100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191104195213
2019110418 05A MAHA 023 01 305 08 SATL 010
T000 194N 0636E 105 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 197N 0636E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 199N 0645E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 199N 0661E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 201N 0678E 040 R034 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 208N 0708E 025
AMP
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 19.4N 63.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 63.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.7N 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.9N 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.9N 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.1N 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.8N 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 63.6E.
04NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.
//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103118 141N 724E 45
0519110100 146N 715E 45
0519110106 151N 703E 45
0519110112 156N 696E 45
0519110118 158N 692E 45
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110418 194N 636E 105
0519110418 194N 636E 105
0519110418 194N 636E 105
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 19.4N 63.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 63.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.7N 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.9N 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.9N 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.1N 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 20.8N 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 63.6E.
04NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM MAINTAINING GOOD
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE EYEWALL AND A DISTINCT 10 NM EYE,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. A 041726Z GMI 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH A BANDING
FEATURE IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
SET AT 105 KTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T5.5 (102 KTS), A 041745Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T5.6
(105 KTS), AND A 041639Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 98 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG POLEWARD AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IN
A REGION OF MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) REMAINS FAVORABLE AT 27-28 CELSIUS. TC 05A
IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM HAS NOT
REALIZED THE FORECASTED NORTHEASTWARD TURN AT THIS POINT. TC 05A IS
STILL EXPECTED TO RECURVE TO AN EASTWARD TRACK AFTER IT ROUNDS THE
STR NEAR TAU 12. CONCURRENTLY, STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIG OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA, WEAKENING THE STR. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD, IT WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR TC 05A WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK
EASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHWEST INDIA THROUGHOUT THE REMAINING FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME VARIATION IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE WITHIN
THE NUMERICAL MODELS; HOWEVER, ALL MODELS SHOW COMPLETION OF THE
RECURVE BY TAU 12. AFTER THAT, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUPPORTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AFTER
TAU 36 AND CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE CONVERGENT WESTERLIES, TC
05A WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWEST INDIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041800Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND
052100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 041800

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 04 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS MMAHA)
OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 10 KMPH DURING PAST 06
HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT 1500UTC OF TODAY, THE 04TH NOVEMBER,
2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR
LATITUDE 18.9?N AND LONGITUDE 64.1?E, ABOUT 690 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF VERAVAL (42909), 740 KM WESTSOUTHWEST OF DIU(42914) AND 650 KM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR(42830). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY TILL 5 TH NOVEMBER MORNING AND WEAKEN THEREAFTER. IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS SLOWLY TILL 0000UTC OF
5TH NOVEMBER AND THEN MOVE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS. IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN DIU (42914) AND
PORBANDAR (42830) AS A CYCLONIC STORM WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED OF 80-90 KMPH GUSTING TO 100 KMPH BY 0000UTC OF 7TH
NOVEMBER, 2019 (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 110 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/05 AT 00 UTC 19.4 N /64.01 E MAX WIND
95 KTS EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/05 AT 12 UTC 19.9 N / 65.3 E MAX WIND
80 KTS EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 75 DEG E:NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 77 DEG E (.)
2)E OF 69 TO 75 DEG E: :N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
3)W OF 60 DEG E: SW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS
TO THE N OF 7 DEG N (.)
4)REST AREA: VARIABLE 02 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 67 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 67 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 60 DEG E:NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 70 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA:N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 58 DEG E: CYCLONIC 80/90 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 14 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 14 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 14 DEG N: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E CYCLONIC 45/80 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS BEC N/NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE S OF
13 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 64 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 64 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.2 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.5 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 041500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 64.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 64.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.4N 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 041500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191104125810
2019110412 05A MAHA 022 01 345 04 SATL 020
T000 189N 0643E 105 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 194N 0643E 095 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 198N 0648E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 199N 0659E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 201N 0675E 050 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 211N 0710E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 64.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 64.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.4N 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.8N 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.9N 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.1N 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.1N 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 64.3E.
04NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.
//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103118 141N 724E 45
0519110100 146N 715E 45
0519110106 151N 703E 45
0519110112 156N 696E 45
0519110118 158N 692E 45
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110412 189N 643E 105
0519110412 189N 643E 105
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 041400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 64.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 64.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.4N 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.8N 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.9N 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.1N 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.1N 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 64.3E.
04NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 20 NM
EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A
041111Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH A
BANDING FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 5.5 (102 KNOTS) AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF 5.5 (102 KNOTS).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 05A IS TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO RECURVE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE STR. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYNOPTIC
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE COMPLEX AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA ERODING THE STR. THIS WESTERLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA
AND WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST INDIA.
THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. TC 05A SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
CONVERGENT WESTERLIES AND INCREASINGLY HIGHER VWS. TC 05A SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWEST INDIA BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z,
050900Z AND 051500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 64.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 64.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.4N 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.8N 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.9N 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.1N 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.1N 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 64.3E.
04NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 20 NM
EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A
041111Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH A
BANDING FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 5.5 (102 KNOTS) AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF 5.5 (102 KNOTS).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 05A IS TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO RECURVE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE STR. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYNOPTIC
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE COMPLEX AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA ERODING THE STR. THIS WESTERLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA
AND WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST INDIA.
THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. TC 05A SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
CONVERGENT WESTERLIES AND INCREASINGLY HIGHER VWS. TC 05A SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWEST INDIA BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z,
050900Z AND 051500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 041227
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1100 UTC 04 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M'MAHA) OVER
EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 05 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY
CENTERED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 04TH NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER
EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 18.7
DEG N AND LONGITUDE 64.2 DEG E, ABOUT 690 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
VERAVAL (42909), 740 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIU (42914) AND 660 KM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR (42830). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER TILL 0000UTC OF 5TH NOVEMBER MORNING AND WEAKEN THEREAFTER.
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY DURING NEXT 18
HOURS, RE-CURVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS AND MOVE RAPIDLY THEREAFTER. IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN DIU AND PORBANDAR AS A
CYCLONIC STORM WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 80-90 KMPH
GUSTING TO 100 KMPH BY 2100 UTC OF 6TH NOVEMBER, 2019 (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/04 AT 18 UTC 19.01 N /63.8 E MAX WIND 95 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/05 AT 03 UTC 19.7 N / 64.6 E MAX WIND 85 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 60 DEG E:N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 54
DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 73 DEG E (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E:E-LY 05 KTS BEC SE-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 51 DEG E
(.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 70 DEG E CYCLONIC 95/100 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 14 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 14 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 14 DEG N: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 72 DEG E CYCLONIC 100/105 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 14 DEG N TO W OF 72: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 14 DEG N TO W OF 70: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG E: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 041006
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0930 UTC 04 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M\U2019MAHA)
OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 06 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY
CENTERED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 04TH NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER
EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 18.6
DEG N AND LONGITUDE 64.3 DEG E, ABOUT 680 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
VERAVAL (42909), 730 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIU (42914) AND 650 KM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR (42830). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER TILL 0000UTC OF 5TH NOVEMBER MORNING AND WEAKEN THEREAFTER.
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY DURING NEXT 18
HOURS, RE-CURVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS AND MOVE RAPIDLY THEREAFTER. IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN DIU AND PORBANDAR AS A
CYCLONIC STORM WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 43-49 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 54 KNOTS BY 2100 UTC OF 6TH NOVEMBER, 2019 (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/04 AT 18 UTC 19.01 N /63.8 E MAX WIND 95 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/05 AT 03 UTC 19.7 N / 64.6 E MAX WIND 85 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 60 DEG E:N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 54
DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 73 DEG E (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E:E-LY 05 KTS BEC SE-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 51 DEG E
(.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 70 DEG E CYCLONIC 95/100 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 14 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 14 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 14 DEG N: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 72 DEG E CYCLONIC 100/105 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 14 DEG N TO W OF 72: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 14 DEG N TO W OF 70: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG E: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN31 DEMS 040933
QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH EXTREMELY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM MAHA OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA BASED ON 0600 UTC OF 4TH NOVEMBER, 2019 FOR WHICH FORECAST IS
PREPARED:



PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 040600 UTC

PRESENT POSITION: 18.60N/64.30E

POSITION ACCURATE TO 20 KM

PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 315/07KT

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 90 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 030 KM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT

RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT





FORECASTS:

06 HRS, VALID AT:

041200Z 18.8ON /64.0OE

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 90 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



12 HRS, VALID AT:

041800Z 19.10N /63.80 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 95 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



18 HRS, VALID AT:

050000Z 19.4ON /64.00E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 95 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



24 HRS, VALID AT:

050600Z 19.7ON /64.60E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 85 KT, GUSTS 95 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT





36 HRS, VALID AT:

051800Z 20.0ON /65.50E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 75KT, GUSTS 85 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



48 HRS, VALID AT:

060600Z 20.3ON /67.5O E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 KT, GUSTS 70 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



60 HRS, VALID AT:

061800Z 20.8ON /69.60 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 45 KT, GUSTS 55 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



72 HRS, VALID AT:

070600Z 21.5ON /71.6O E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 KT, GUSTS 45 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT







84 HRS, VALID AT:

071800Z 22.1ON /73.6OE

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 25 KT, GUSTS 35 KT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 040900
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 04 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORMMAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M'MAHA) OVER
EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF 05 KTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT
0300 UTC, THE 04TH NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WEST
CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 64.6 DEG
E, ABOUT 670 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (42909), 710 KM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIU (42914) AND 650 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR
(42830). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER TILL 0000 UTC OF 5TH
NOVEMBER AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY THEREAFTER. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY DURING NEXT 24 HOURS, RE-CURVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS
AND MOVE RAPIDLY THEREAFTER. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS GUJARAT
COAST BETWEEN DIU AND PORBANDAR AS A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH A
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 55-60 KTS GUSTING TO 65 KTS AROUND
1800 UTC OF OF 6TH NOVEMBER/ 0000UTC OF 7TH NOVEMBER, 2019 (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO
110 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/04 AT 15 UTC 18.8 N / 63.9 E MAX WIND 100 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/05 AT 03 UTC 19.5 N / 64.1 E MAX WIND 105 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 64 DEG E:NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 72 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA:NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 60 DEG E:NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 73 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA:N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 70 DEG E CYCLONIC 95/100 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 14 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 14 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 14 DEG N: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E CYCLONIC 100/105 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 15 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 15 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.2 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.2 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.5 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 040900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191104073629
2019110406 05A MAHA 021 01 310 06 SATL 030
T000 185N 0644E 100 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 192N 0638E 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 196N 0642E 095 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 198N 0651E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 200N 0664E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 207N 0699E 045 R034 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD
T096 219N 0730E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 18.5N 64.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 64.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.2N 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.6N 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.8N 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.0N 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.7N 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.9N 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 64.2E.
04NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.
//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103118 141N 724E 45
0519110100 146N 715E 45
0519110106 151N 703E 45
0519110112 156N 696E 45
0519110118 158N 692E 45
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110400 181N 649E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
0519110406 185N 644E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 040900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 18.5N 64.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 64.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.2N 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 18.5N 64.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 64.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.2N 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.6N 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.8N 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.0N 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.7N 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.9N 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 64.2E.
04NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 13 NM EYE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 040501Z AMSU
89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH A BANDING FEATURE
OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED
AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
5.5 (102 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TC 05A IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND IS FORECAST
TO RECURVE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE STR. AFTER TAU
36, THE SYNOPTIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE COMPLEX AS STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA ERODING THE STR,
WHICH REGRESSES WESTWARD. THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND WILL PRODUCE AN ABRUPT
EASTWARD TRACK CHANGE. THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL VORTEX
TRACKERS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO, HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. TC 05A SHOULD PEAK WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CONVERGENT WESTERLIES AND
INCREASINGLY HIGHER VWS. TC 05A SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWEST
INDIA BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 40
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 040633
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0600 UTC 04 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORMMAHA (PRONOUNCED AS MMAHA) OVER
EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 05 KTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND
LAY CENTERED AT 0300 UTC, THE 04TH NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER EASTCENTRAL
AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 64.6 DEG E, ABOUT 670 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (42909),
710 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIU (42914) AND 650 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
PORBANDAR (42830). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER TILL 0000
UTC OF 5TH NOVEMBER AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY THEREAFTER. IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY DURING NEXT 24 HOURS,
RE-CURVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS AND MOVE RAPIDLY THEREAFTER. IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN DIU AND PORBANDAR AS A SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 55-60 KTS
GUSTING TO 65 KTS AROUND 1800 UTC OF OF 6TH NOVEMBER/ 0000UTC OF 7TH
NOVEMBER, 2019 (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/04 AT 15 UTC 18.8 N / 63.9 E MAX WIND 100 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/05 AT 03 UTC 19.5 N / 64.1 E MAX WIND 105 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 60 DEG E:N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 54
DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 73 DEG E (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E:E-LY 05 KTS BEC SE-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 51 DEG E
(.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 70 DEG E CYCLONIC 95/100 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 14 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 14 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 14 DEG N: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 72 DEG E CYCLONIC 100/105 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 14 DEG N TO W OF 72: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 14 DEG N TO W OF 70: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG E: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
-----------------
TOO:-04/1200 EF

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 040400
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0300 UTC 04 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS MMAHA) OVER
EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 6 KTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS,
INTENSIFIED INTO AN EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY CENTERED
AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 04 TH NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER EASTCENTRAL AND
ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 64.8 DEG E, ABOUT 660 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (42909),
700 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIU(42914) AND 640 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
PORBANDAR(42830). ITS IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER TILL THE
MORNING OF 05 TH NOVEMBER AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY THEREAFTER. IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY DURING NEXT 24 HOURS,
RE-CURVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS AND MOVE RAPIDLY THEREAFTER. IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN DIU AND PORBANDAR AS A SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 55-60 KTS
GUSTING TO 65 KTS BETWEEN 1800 UTC OF 6 TH NOVEMBER AND 0000 UTC OF 7
TH NOVEMBER, 2019 (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/04 AT 12 UTC 18.6 N / 63.9 E MAX WIND 95 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/05 AT 00 UTC 19.4 N / 64.0 E MAX WIND 100 KTS
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 60 DEG E:N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 54
DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 62 DEG E: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 73 DEG E (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E:E-LY 05 KTS BEC SE-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 51 DEG E
(.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 70 DEG E CYCLONIC 90/95 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 14 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 14 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 14 DEG N: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 70 DEG E CYCLONIC 95/100 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 14 DEG N TO W OF 70: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 14 DEG N TO W OF 70: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG E: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 040300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 18.1N 65.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 65.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.6N 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 040300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191104010714
2019110400 05A MAHA 020 01 305 03 SATL 010
T000 181N 0650E 100 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 186N 0643E 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 191N 0639E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 194N 0644E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 196N 0657E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 204N 0693E 045 R034 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 213N 0719E 025
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 18.1N 65.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 65.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.6N 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.1N 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.4N 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.6N 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.4N 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.3N 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 64.8E.
04NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 040000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND
050300Z.//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103118 141N 724E 45
0519110100 146N 715E 45
0519110106 151N 703E 45
0519110112 156N 696E 45
0519110118 158N 692E 45
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110400 181N 650E 100
0519110400 181N 650E 100
0519110400 181N 650E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 18.1N 65.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 65.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.6N 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.1N 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.4N 64.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.6N 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.4N 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.3N 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 64.8E.
04NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A COMPACT MIDGET WITH A 10-NM PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 032111Z AMSR2 36GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.2-T5.5 AND REFLECTS A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIMITED POLEWARD BUT ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 05A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 12, IT WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE DIGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ERODES THE STR. AFTER TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE CRESTED THE STR AXIS THEN WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE MUMBAI PENINSULA AROUND TAU 78. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ENHANCE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105KTS BY TAU 12; AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES WILL PRIMARILY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 45KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, THE ADDITION OF LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFUM AS THE NOTABLE LEFT OUTLIER FROM THE MID PORTION ONWARD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 040000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND
050300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 032100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 17.9N 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 65.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.4N 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 17.9N 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 65.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.4N 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.9N 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.3N 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.6N 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.3N 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.7N 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 65.0E.
03NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 398 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AND SYMMETRIC AS IT MAINTAINED A 10-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED AVERAGED FROM AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77-102KTS. FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 05A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 12, IT WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE DIGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ERODES THE STR. BY TAU 36, THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE CRESTED THE STR AXIS THEN WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE MUMBAI PENINSULA AROUND TAU 84. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ENHANCE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105KTS BY TAU 24; AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES WILL PRIMARILY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 55KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, THE ADDITION OF LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFUM AS THE NOTABLE LEFT OUTLIER FROM THE MID PORTION ONWARD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 032100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191103192232
2019110318 05A MAHA 019 01 300 04 SATL 010
T000 179N 0653E 095 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 184N 0643E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 189N 0637E 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 193N 0637E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 196N 0647E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 203N 0681E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD
T096 217N 0719E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 17.9N 65.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 65.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.4N 64.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.9N 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.3N 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.6N 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.3N 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.7N 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 65.0E.
03NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 398 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 031800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND
042100Z.//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103118 141N 724E 45
0519110100 146N 715E 45
0519110106 151N 703E 45
0519110112 156N 696E 45
0519110118 158N 692E 45
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
0519110318 179N 653E 95
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 031800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 03 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M\U2019MAHA) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED FURTHER WESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 5 KTS
DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTERED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 03 RD
NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 DEG N
AND LONGITUDE 65.7 DEG E, ABOUT 600 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL
(42909), 640 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIU (42914) AND 600 KM SOUTHWEST OF
PORBANDAR (42830). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
SLOWLY TILL 04 TH NOVEMBER, RE-CURVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS AND MOVE
RAPIDLY THEREAFTER. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY FROM 05 TH
NOVEMBER ONWARDS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN
DIU AND DWARKA AS A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED OF 55-60 KTS GUSTING TO 65 KTS BETWEEN 1800 UTC OF 6 TH
NOVEMBER AND 0000 UTC OF 7 TH NOVEMBER, 2019 (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 HPA. (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/04 AT 00 UTC 18.0 N / 64.6 E MAX WIND 80 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/04 AT 12 UTC 18.6 N / 63.6 E MAX WIND 85 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 60 DEG E:N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 54
DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 62 DEG E: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 73 DEG E (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E:E-LY 05 KTS BEC SE-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE W OF 51 DEG E
(.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 70 DEG E CYCLONIC 75/80 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 14 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 14 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 14 DEG N: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 70 DEG E CYCLONIC 80/85 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA N-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 14 DEG N TO W OF 70: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 14 DEG N TO W OF 70: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/SW-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG E: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 031500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 17.7N 65.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 65.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.1N 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 031500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191103131815
2019110312 05A MAHA 018 01 300 04 SATL 015
T000 177N 0657E 080 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 181N 0647E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 186N 0637E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 190N 0634E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 194N 0639E 080 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 201N 0672E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 213N 0712E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 17.7N 65.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 65.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.1N 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.6N 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.0N 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.4N 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.1N 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.3N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 65.4E.
03NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 432
NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103118 141N 724E 45
0519110100 146N 715E 45
0519110106 151N 703E 45
0519110112 156N 696E 45
0519110118 158N 692E 45
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110306 175N 661E 70
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
0519110312 177N 657E 80
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 17.7N 65.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 65.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.1N 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.6N 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.0N 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.4N 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.1N 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.3N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 65.4E.
03NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 432
NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 7NM
EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A
031053Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS AN ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE WITH A
SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 05A IS
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU
36, THE SYNOPTIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE COMPLEX AS STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA ERODING THE STR,
WHICH REGRESSES WESTWARD. THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND WILL PRODUCE AN ABRUPT
EASTWARD TRACK CHANGE. THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL VORTEX
TRACKERS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO, HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. TC 05A SHOULD PEAK WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CONVERGENT WESTERLIES AND
INCREASINGLY HIGHER VWS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 031210
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1200 UTC 03 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M\U2019MAHA) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED FURTHER WESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 5 KTS
DURING PAST 06 HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
AND LAY CENTERED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 03 RD NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 65.9
DEG E, ABOUT 590 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (42909), 630 KM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIU (42914) AND 590 KM SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR
(42830). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY TILL 04
TH NOVEMBER, RE-CURVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS AND MOVE RAPIDLY THEREAFTER
AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY FROM 05 TH NOVEMBER ONWARDS. IT IS VERY LIKELY
TO CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN DIU AND DWARKA AS A SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 55-60 KTS GUSTING TO 65
KTS BETWEEN 1800 UTC OF 6 TH NOVEMBER AND 0000 UTC OF 7 TH NOVEMBER,
2019 (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/03 AT 21 UTC 17.9 N / 64.9 E MAX WIND 75 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/04 AT 09 UTC 18.4 N / 63.8 E MAX WIND 80 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 60 DEG E:N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:VARIBLE 05 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 75 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)W OF 57 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY1)E OF 75 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)W OF 57 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 62 DEG E: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS
BEC W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 77 DEG E (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E:N/NE-LY 05 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05 KTS TO THE S OF 5
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)W OF 64 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 64 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 70/80 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 13 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 13 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 13 DEG N: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 80/85 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 13 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 13 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS
TO THE N OF 2 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG E: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 84 DEG E: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 031000
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1000 UTC 03 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M'MAHA) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF
03 KTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT 0600 UTC OF 03 RD
NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE
17.6 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 66.2 DEG E, ABOUT 570 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF VERAVAL (42909); 600 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIU (42914) AND 580
KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORBANDAR (42830). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 06 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY TILL 04 TH NOVEMBER, RE-CURVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS AND MOVE RAPIDLY THEREAFTER AND WEAKEN
GRADUALLY FROM 05 TH NOVEMBER ONWARDS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS
GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN DIU AND DWARKA AS A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 55-60 KTS GUSTING TO 65 KTS
AROUND AROUND 1800 UTC OF 6 TH NOVEMBER OF 0000 UTC OF 7 TH NOVEMBER,
2019 (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO
70 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/03 AT 18 UTC 17.9 N / 65.1 E MAX WIND 75 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/04 AT 06 UTC 18.3 N / 64.0 E MAX WIND 80 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 60 DEG E:N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:VARIBLE 05 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 75 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)W OF 57 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY1)E OF 75 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)W OF 57 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 62 DEG E: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS
BEC W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 77 DEG E (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E:N/NE-LY 05 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05 KTS TO THE S OF 5
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)W OF 64 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 64 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 70/75 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 13 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 13 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 13 DEG N: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 80/85 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 13 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 13 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS
TO THE N OF 2 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG E: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 84 DEG E: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 030900

PANPAN
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 03 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS MMAHA) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF
4 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT 0300 UTC OF 03RD
NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 DEG N
AND LONGITUDE 66.4 DEG E, ABOUT 550 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL
(42909)
AND 580 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIU (42914). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY
INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA
DURING
NEXT 06 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TILL
04TH
NOVEMBER, RE-CURVE EASTNORTHEASTWARDS THEREAFTER AND WEAKEN
GRADUALLY
FROM 5TH NOVEMBER ONWARDS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS GUJARAT COAST
BETWEEN DIU AND DWARKA (42731) AS A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH A
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 55-60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS
AROUND
1800 UTC OF 6TH NOVEMBER/ 0000 UTC OF 7TH NOVEMBER, 2019 (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO
70 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/03 AT 15 UTC 18.1 N / 65.3 E MAX WIND 80 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/04 AT 03 UTC 18.5 N / 64.2 E MAX WIND 85 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 60 DEG E:N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:VARIBLE 05 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 75 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)W OF 57 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY1)E OF 75 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)W OF 57 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 62 DEG E: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS
BEC W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 77 DEG E (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E:N/NE-LY 05 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05 KTS TO THE S OF 5
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)W OF 64 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 64 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 70/85 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 13 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 13 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT:1)N OF 13 DEG N: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 80/90 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 13 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 13 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS
TO THE N OF 2 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG E: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 86 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 84 DEG E: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:NE/E-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 19 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 030900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191103071523
2019110306 05A MAHA 017 01 280 06 SATL 030
T000 175N 0660E 070 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 179N 0649E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 183N 0640E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 187N 0632E 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 193N 0636E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 200N 0665E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 209N 0707E 045 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 225N 0748E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 17.5N 66.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 66.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.9N 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.3N 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.7N 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.3N 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.0N 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.9N 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.5N 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 65.7E.
03NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 442
NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.
//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103118 141N 724E 45
0519110100 146N 715E 45
0519110106 151N 703E 45
0519110112 156N 696E 45
0519110118 158N 692E 45
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110218 173N 671E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110300 174N 666E 65
0519110306 175N 660E 70
0519110306 175N 660E 70
0519110306 175N 660E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 030900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 17.5N 66.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 66.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.9N 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 17.5N 66.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 66.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.9N 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.3N 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.7N 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.3N 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.0N 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 20.9N 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 22.5N 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 65.7E.
03NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 442
NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 030651Z GMI
89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH REFLECTS THE
IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 70 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0
(65 KNOTS), BASED ON A 030520Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 68 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 05A IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH BUT IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYNOPTIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
COMPLEX AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA
ERODING THE STR, WHICH REGRESSES WESTWARD. THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND WILL
PRODUCE AN ABRUPT EASTWARD TRACK CHANGE. THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL
MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO, HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TC 05A SHOULD INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CONVERGENT WESTERLIES
AND STRONG VWS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 030450

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0400 UTC 03 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M'MAHA) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF
02 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT 0000 UTC OF
03RD NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 17.6
DEG N AND LONGITUDE 66.5 DEG E, ABOUT 550 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
VERAVAL (42909) AND 580 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIU(42914). IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 06 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 04TH NOVEMBER, RE-CURVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS THEREAFTER AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY FROM 5TH
NOVEMBER ONWARDS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN
DIU (42914) AND DWARKA (42731) AS A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH A
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 55-60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS
AROUND MID-NIGHT OF 6TH NOVEMBER / EARLY HOURS OF 7 TH NOVEMBER,
2019 (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO
70 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/03 AT 12 UTC 18.0 N / 65.5 E MAX WIND 70 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/04 AT 00 UTC 18.4 N / 64.5 E MAX WIND 80 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 DEG E:SW/S-LY 10/15 KTS
BEC SE-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 7 DEG N (.)
2)E OF 62 TO 72 DEG E: VARIABLE 05 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 72 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)E OF 72 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: VARIABLE 05 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 3 DEG N TO W OF 55 DEG E:WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 6 DEG N TO E OF 59 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 3 DEG N TO W OF 55 DEG E:3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 6 DEG N TO E OF 59 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: CYCLONIC 65/85 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: CYCLONIC 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 80/90 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 86 DEG E: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA :S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF 4
DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 90 DEG E: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST ARE: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 85 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 85 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC
10/15 KTS TO THE 18 DEG N TO E OF 84 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 85 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 85 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 030300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 17.6N 66.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 66.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.9N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 17.6N 66.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 66.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.9N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.3N 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.8N 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.3N 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.8N 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.9N 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.0N 73.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 66.1E.
03NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 381 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH RAIN BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH, WRAPPED TIGHT INTO A DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS SINCE OBSCURED AN EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A TIGHT CLUSTER OF WARM PIXELS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 05A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, IT WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE DIGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ERODES THE STR. BY TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE CRESTED THE STR AXIS THEN ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE MUMBAI PENINSULA JUST AFTER TAU 96. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ENHANCE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105KTS BY TAU 48; AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES WILL PRIMARILY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 50KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. BY TAU 120, TC MAHA WILL HAVE MADE A SECONDARY AND FINAL LANDFALL NEAR SURAT AT 35KTS AND RAPIDLY DECAYING. THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM AS THE NOTABLE LEFT OUTLIER UP TO THE MID-PORTION OF AND THEN THE RIGHT OUTLIER IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 030300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191103011625
2019110300 05A MAHA 016 01 300 06 SATL 025
T000 176N 0664E 065 R050 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 179N 0653E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 183N 0642E 085 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 188N 0634E 100 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 193N 0634E 105 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 198N 0652E 080 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 209N 0700E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 220N 0736E 035
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 17.6N 66.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 66.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.9N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.3N 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.8N 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.3N 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.8N 65.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.9N 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.0N 73.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 66.1E.
03NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 381 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 030000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z
AND 040300Z.//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103118 141N 724E 45
0519110100 146N 715E 45
0519110106 151N 703E 45
0519110112 156N 696E 45
0519110118 158N 692E 45
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110218 173N 670E 65
0519110218 173N 670E 65
0519110300 176N 664E 65
0519110300 176N 664E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 022100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 17.3N 67.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 67.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.7N 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 022100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191102194345
2019110218 05A MAHA 015 01 300 06 SATL 020
T000 173N 0670E 065 R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 177N 0660E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 181N 0648E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 184N 0638E 100 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 189N 0633E 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 195N 0648E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 204N 0693E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 215N 0730E 035 R034 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 17.3N 67.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 67.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.7N 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.1N 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.4N 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.9N 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.5N 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.4N 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.5N 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 66.7E.
02NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 353 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 021800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z
AND 032100Z.//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103118 141N 724E 45
0519110100 146N 715E 45
0519110106 151N 703E 45
0519110112 156N 696E 45
0519110118 158N 692E 45
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110218 173N 670E 65
0519110218 173N 670E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 17.3N 67.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 67.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.7N 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.1N 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.4N 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.9N 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.5N 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 20.4N 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 21.5N 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 66.7E.
02NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 353 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AS RAIN
BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A DEEPENING CENTRAL
CONVECTION THAT MOMENTARILY REVEALED AN EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE THAT HAS SINCE BECOME
OBSCURED AND LINED UP PERFECTLY WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE
021736Z GPM 36GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW AND LOW
(05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 05A IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
AFTER TAU 36, IT WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
DIGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ERODES THE STR. BY TAU 48, THE CYCLONE
WILL CREST THE STR AXIS THEN ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, MAKING
LANDFALL OVER THE MUMBAI PENINSULA AFTER TAU 96. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL ENHANCE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105KTS
BY TAU 48; AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WESTERLIES WILL PRIMARILY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 50KTS PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. BY TAU 120, TC MAHA WILL HAVE MADE A SECONDARY AND FINAL
LANDFALL NEAR SURAT AT 30KTS AND RAPIDLY DECAYING. THE BULK OF THE
NUMERICAL MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS SUPPORT THIS TRACK, HOWEVER, THERE IS
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 021800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 02 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M\U2019MAHA) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 8 KTS
DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 02
ND NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 DEG
N AND LONGITUDE 67.6 DEG E, ABOUT 520 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL
(42909) AND 540 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIU (42914). IT IS VERY LIKELY
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 04 TH NOVEMBER AND RECURVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS SOUTH GUJARAT AND ADJOINING NORTH
MAHARASHTRA COASTS THEREAFTER. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT
12HOURS. HOWEVER, AFTER THE RE-CURVATURE, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO WEAKEN
GRADUALLY WHILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 60
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/03 AT 00 UTC 17.4 N / 66.6 E MAX WIND 65 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/03 AT 12 UTC 17.8 N / 65.6 E MAX WIND 75 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

THE DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF 12 KTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200
UTC OF TODAY, THE 02 ND NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING
SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 53.0 DEG
E, ABOUT 100 KM WEST OF SOCOTRA ISLAND (41494) AND 220 KM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BEREEDA (SOMALIA). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS SOMALIA COAST AND WEAKEN INTO A WELL
MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING NEXT 06 HOURS (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 DEG E:SW/S-LY 10/15 KTS
BEC SE-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 7 DEG N (.)
2)E OF 62 TO 72 DEG E: VARIABLE 05 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 72 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)E OF 72 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: VARIABLE 05 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 3 DEG N TO W OF 55 DEG E:WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 6 DEG N TO E OF 59 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 3 DEG N TO W OF 55 DEG E:3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 6 DEG N TO E OF 59 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 60 DEG E CYCLONIC 60/65 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA CYCLONIC 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 75/80 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 86 DEG E: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA :S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF 4
DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 90 DEG E: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST ARE: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 85 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 85 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC
10/15 KTS TO THE 18 DEG N TO E OF 84 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 85 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 85 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 021500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 17.0N 67.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 67.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.6N 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 021500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191102132815
2019110212 05A MAHA 014 01 315 08 SATL 020
T000 170N 0676E 060 R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 176N 0665E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 180N 0653E 085 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 182N 0642E 100 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 184N 0634E 105 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 190N 0632E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 193N 0659E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 198N 0689E 045 R034 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 17.0N 67.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 67.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.6N 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.0N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.2N 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.4N 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.0N 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.3N 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.8N 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 67.3E.
02NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469
NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103118 141N 724E 45
0519110100 146N 715E 45
0519110106 151N 703E 45
0519110112 156N 696E 45
0519110118 158N 692E 45
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110212 170N 676E 60
0519110212 170N 676E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 17.0N 67.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 67.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.6N 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.0N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.2N 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.4N 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.0N 63.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.3N 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.8N 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 67.3E.
02NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469
NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH AN INCIPIENT
EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A
021105Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A COMPACT CORE WITH A SMALL
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.5 TO 4.0 (55 TO 65
KNOTS). TC 05A IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST, HOWEVER, IT
WILL TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR
BUILDS TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYNOPTIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES MORE COMPLEX AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN
ARABIAN SEA ERODING THE STR, WHICH REGRESSES WESTWARD. THIS WESTERLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND
WILL PRODUCE AN ABRUPT EASTWARD TRACK CHANGE. THE BULK OF THE
NUMERICAL MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO, HOWEVER,
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE
COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TC 05A SHOULD RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS.
AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE CONVERGENT WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND
031500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 021242

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1200 UTC 02 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M\U2019MAHA) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 5 KTS
DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT 0900 HRS UTC OF TODAY, THE
02 ND NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 16.8
DEG N AND LONGITUDE 67.9 DEG E, ABOUT 520 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
VERAVAL (GUJARAT) AND 540 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIU. IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 04 TH NOVEMBER AND RECURVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS SOUTH GUJARAT AND ADJOINING NORTH
MAHARASHTRA COASTS THEREAFTER. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO
A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA DURING
NEXT 24 HOURS.HOWEVER, AFTER THE RE-CURVATURE, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
WEAKEN GRADUALLY WHILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO
60 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/02 AT 21 UTC 17.1 N / 66.9 E MAX WIND 65 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/03 AT 09 UTC 17.6 N / 65.8 E MAX WIND 70 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

THE DEPRESSIONOVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF 15 KTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT
0900 HRS UTC OF TODAY, THE 02 ND NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 53.8 DEG E, CLOSE
TO SOCOTRA ISLAND AND 300 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BEREEDA (SOMALIA). IT
IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS SOMALIA COAST
ACROSS SOCOTRA ISLAND DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND WEAKEN INTO A WELL
MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA THEREAFTER (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO
35 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E:SW/S-LY 10/15 KTS
BEC S/SE-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 7 DEG N (.)
2)E OF 60 TO 72 DEG E: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO
THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
3)REST AREA: NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 75
DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 72 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)E OF 72 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E:SW/S-LY 10/15 KTS BEC
S/SE-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 6 DEG N (.)
2)E OF 60 TO 70 DEG E: ANTICYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 3 DEG N TO W OF 55 DEG E:WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 6 DEG N TO E OF 59 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 3 DEG N TO W OF 55 DEG E:3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 6 DEG N TO E OF 59 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E:CYCLONIC 55/65 KTS (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E : CYCLONIC 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 57 DEG E:CYCLONIC 65/70 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 86 DEG E: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA :S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF 4
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 90 DEG E:N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE S OF 18 DEG N (.)
2)REST ARE: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS
TO THE S OF 18 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 85 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 85 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 10/15
KTS TO THE 18 DEG N TO E OF 84 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 85 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 13 DEG N TO W OF 85 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 85 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 13 DEG N TO W OF 85 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 021125

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1030 UTC 02 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS MMAHA) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED FURTHER WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH
A SPEED OF 3 KTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT
0600 HRS UTC OF TODAY, THE 02 ND NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 68.2 DEG E,
ABOUT 540 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (GUJARAT) AND 550 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIU. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
MOVEWEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 04 TH NOVEMBER AND RECURVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS SOUTH GUJARAT AND ADJOINING
NORTH MAHARASHTRA COASTS THERE AFTER. IT IS VERY LIKELY
TO INTENSIFY INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA DURINGNEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER,
AFTER THE RE-CURVATURE, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO WEAKEN
GRADUALLY WHILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 60 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 992 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/02 AT 18 UTC 17.0 N / 67.1 E MAX WIND
60 KTS SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/03 AT 06 UTC 17.6 N / 66.0 E MAX WIND
65 KTS VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

THE DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 17 KTS DURING
PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF 02 ND
NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR
LATITUDE 13.1 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 54.1 DEG E, ABOUT
50 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SOCOTRA ISLAND (41494) AND
350 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF BEREEDA (SOMALIA). IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS SOMALIA
COAST ACROSS SOCOTRA ISLAND DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND
WEAKEN INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA THEREAFTER (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E:SW/S-LY 10/15 KTS
BEC S/SE-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 7 DEG N (.)
2)E OF 60 TO 72 DEG E: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS
TO THE N
OF 4 DEG N (.)
3)REST AREA: NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 75
DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 72 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)E OF 72 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E:SW/S-LY 10/15 KTS BEC
S/SE-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 6 DEG N (.)
2)E OF 60 TO 70 DEG E: ANTICYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 3 DEG N TO W OF 55 DEG E:WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 6 DEG N TO E OF 59 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 3 DEG N TO W OF 55 DEG E:3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 6 DEG N TO E OF 59 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E:CYCLONIC 55/60 KTS (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E : CYCLONIC 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 57 DEG E:CYCLONIC 65/70 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 86 DEG E: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA :S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF 4
DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 90 DEG E:N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE S OF 18 DEG N (.)
2)REST ARE: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS
TO THE S OF 18 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 85 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 85 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 10/15
KTS TO THE 18 DEG N TO E OF 84 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 85 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 13 DEG N TO W OF 85 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 85 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 13 DEG N TO W OF 85 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 020900

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 02 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M'MAHA) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED FURTHER WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A
SPEED OF 05 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT 0300 UTC
OF 02ND NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR
LATITUDE 16.4 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 68.3 DEG E, ABOUT 540 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (42909) AND 550 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
DIU(42914). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 04TH
NOVEMBER AND RECURVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS SOUTH GUJARAT COAST
THEREAFTER. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER, AFTER THE RE-CURVATURE, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO WEAKEN
GRADUALLY WHILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS SOUTH GUJARAT
COAST.
THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 60
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/02 AT 12 UTC 17.0 N / 67.8 E MAX WIND 55 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/03 AT 00 UTC 17.5 N/ 66.6 E MAX WIND 60 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

THE DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF 14 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT
0300 UTC OF 02ND NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR
LATITUDE 13.5 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 55.0 DEG E, ABOUT 150 KM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SOCOTRA ISLAND (41494) AND 460 KM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF BEREEDA (SOMALIA). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
TOWARDS SOMALIA COAST ACROSS SOCOTRA ISLAND DURING NEXT 24 HOURS AND
WEAKEN INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA THEREAFTER (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA.

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E:SW/S-LY 10/15 KTS
BEC S/SE-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 7 DEG N (.)
2)E OF 60 TO 72 DEG E: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO
THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
3)REST AREA: NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS TO
THE E OF 75 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 72 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)E OF 72 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E:SW/S-LY 10/15 KTS
BEC S/SE-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 6 DEG N (.)
2)E OF 60 TO 70 DEG E: ANTICYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
3)REST AREA: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)N OF 3 DEG N TO W OF 55 DEG E:WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 6 DEG N TO E OF 59 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 3 DEG N TO W OF 55 DEG E:3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 6 DEG N TO E OF 59 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E: CYCLONIC 50/60 KTS (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E : CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 57 DEG E: CYCLONIC 60/75 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 86 DEG E: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA :S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF
4 DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 90 DEG E: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE S OF 18 DEG N (.)
2)REST ARE: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS
TO THE S OF 18 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 85 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 85 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS
TO THE 18 DEG N TO E OF 84 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 85 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 13 DEG N TO W OF 85 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 85 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 13 DEG N TO W OF 85 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 020900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191102074053
2019110206 05A MAHA 013 01 300 06 SATL 040
T000 164N 0682E 055 R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 171N 0672E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 176N 0660E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 179N 0648E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 180N 0637E 100 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 187N 0627E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 189N 0647E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 192N 0673E 045 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 16.4N 68.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 68.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.1N 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.6N 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.9N 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.0N 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.7N 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.9N 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.2N 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 67.9E.
02NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508
NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103118 141N 724E 45
0519110100 146N 715E 45
0519110106 151N 703E 45
0519110112 156N 696E 45
0519110118 158N 692E 45
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110200 161N 687E 50
0519110206 164N 682E 55
0519110206 164N 682E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 020900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 16.4N 68.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 68.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.1N 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 16.4N 68.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 68.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.1N 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.6N 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 17.9N 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.0N 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.7N 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.9N 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.2N 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 67.9E.
02NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508
NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 020227Z SSMIS
IMAGE INDICATES THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE; HOWEVER, THERE IS A COMPACT CORE WITH A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE EVIDENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT LOCATION. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES, PGTW AND DEMS. TC
05A IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST; HOWEVER, IT WILL TURN WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF THE STR BUILDS TO THE
NORTH. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYNOPTIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE
COMPLEX AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA
ERODING THE STR, WHICH REGRESSES WESTWARD. THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND WILL
PRODUCE AN ABRUPT EASTWARD TRACK CHANGE. THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL
MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO; HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TC 05A SHOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CONVERGENT
WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 17 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 020500
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0000 UTC 02 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M'MAHA) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED FURTHER WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A
SPEED OF 07 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT 0000 UTC
OF TODAY, THE 02ND NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR
LATITUDE 16.3 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 68.5 DEG E, ABOUT 550 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (GUJARAT) AND 570 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF
GOA. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 04TH NOVEMBER
AND RECURVE EASTNORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS SOUTH GUJARAT COAST
THEREAFTER. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER, AFTER THE RECURVATURE, IT IS VERY LIKELY TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY
WHILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS SOUTH GUJARAT COAST...

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 60
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/02 AT 12 UTC 17.0 N / 67.8 E MAX WIND 55 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/03 AT 00 UTC 17.5 N/ 66.6 E MAX WIND 60 KTS VERY
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

THE DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF 13 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTRED AT
0000 UTC OF 02ND NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR
LATITUDE 13.7 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 55.8 DEG E, ABOUT 240 KM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SOCOTRA ISLAND (41494) AND 550 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
BEREEDA (SOMALIA) . IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
ACROSS WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND SOCOTRA ISLANDS TOWARDS SOMALIA
COAST DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA.

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 64 DEG E: SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: ANTICYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)S OF 5 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E:SW/S-LY 10/15 KTS
BEC S/SE-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 7 DEG N (.)
2)E OF 60 TO 70 DEG E: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO
THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
3)REST AREA: CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 71 DEG E:WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 71 DEG E:3-2 NM (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E: CYCLONIC 55/65 KTS (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E : CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: CYCLONIC 60/70 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: 15/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 88 DEG E: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA :S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF 5
DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 84 DEG N: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC N/NE-LY 05/10
KTS TO THE S OF 18 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS
TO THE 18 DEG N TO E OF 87 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 13 DEG N TO W OF 88 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 13 DEG N TO W OF 88 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 020300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 16.2N 68.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 68.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.0N 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 020300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191102015042
2019110200 05A MAHA 012 01 300 06 SATL 030
T000 162N 0686E 050 R050 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 005 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD
T012 170N 0676E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 175N 0665E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 178N 0653E 075 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 180N 0639E 090 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 188N 0624E 105 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 191N 0639E 080 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 195N 0674E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 16.2N 68.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 68.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.0N 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.5N 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.8N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.0N 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.8N 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.1N 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.5N 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 68.3E.
02NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301
NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z
AND 030300Z.//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103118 141N 724E 45
0519110100 146N 715E 45
0519110106 151N 703E 45
0519110112 156N 696E 45
0519110118 159N 691E 45
0519110200 162N 686E 50
0519110200 162N 686E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 16.2N 68.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 68.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.0N 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.5N 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.8N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.0N 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.8N 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.1N 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.5N 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 68.3E.
02NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS AN ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH INCREASED SPIRAL BANDING SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE WITH HELP FROM A 012123Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE THAT DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 3.5 (55 KTS) AND A 2100Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 51 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ENHANCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28C) SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST UP TO TAU 72. AFTERWARD, A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL GREATLY WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE TC 05A TO DEFLECT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ENHANCE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 75KTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FUEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105 KTS BY TAU 72 AS TC MAHA ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS WILL PRIMARILY CAUSE GRADUAL DECAY DOWN TO 55KTS BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT SPREADING TO OVER 160NM AROUND TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS PLACED NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 012100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 16.0N 69.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 69.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.8N 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.5N 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 012100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191101192211
2019110118 05A MAHA 011 02 310 06 SATL 020
T000 160N 0691E 045 R034 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD
T012 168N 0681E 050 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 175N 0670E 060 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 179N 0657E 070 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 182N 0645E 090 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 186N 0630E 105 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 191N 0634E 085 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 195N 0660E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 16.0N 69.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 69.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.8N 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.5N 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.9N 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.2N 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.6N 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.1N 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.5N 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 68.8E.
01NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103118 141N 724E 45
0519110100 146N 715E 45
0519110106 151N 703E 45
0519110112 156N 696E 45
0519110118 160N 691E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 16.0N 69.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 69.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.8N 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.5N 67.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.9N 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.2N 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.6N 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.1N 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 19.5N 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 68.8E.
01NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 011800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 01 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M'MAHA) OVER THE SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM MAHA(PRONOUNCED AS M'MAHA) OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA MOVED FURTHER WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 15KMPH DURING
PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT 2030 HRS IST OF TODAY, THE 01ST
NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 15.7ON AND
LONGITUDE 69.2OE, ABOUT 590KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (GUJARAT)
AND 490 KM WEST OF GOA. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS,WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING 02ND TO 04TH NOVEMBER
AND RECURVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS SOUTH GUJARAT COAST
THEREAFTER. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 24 HOURS (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/02 AT 00 UTC 16.6 N / 68.6 E MAX WIND 60 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/02 AT 12 UTC 17.2 N/ 67.9 E MAX WIND 65 KTS VERY
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

THE DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF 23 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 2030
HRS IST OF TODAY,THE 01ST NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0ON AND LONGITUDE 57.4OE, ABOUT 1700KM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI (MAHARASHTRA), 420KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
SALALAH (OMAN) AND 650KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH (OMAN). IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARDS ACROSS WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA,
MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY OF A DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND
WEAKEN INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA THEREAFTER (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO
30 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA..

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 64 DEG E: SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: ANTICYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)S OF 5 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E:SW/S-LY 10/15 KTS
BEC S/SE-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 7 DEG N (.)
2)E OF 60 TO 70 DEG E: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO
THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
3)REST AREA: CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 71 DEG E:WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 71 DEG E:3-2 NM (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E: CYCLONIC 65/75 KTS (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E : CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 70/80 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 88 DEG E: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA :S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF 5
DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 84 DEG N: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC N/NE-LY 05/10
KTS TO THE S OF 18 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS
TO THE 18 DEG N TO E OF 87 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 13 DEG N TO W OF 88 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 13 DEG N TO W OF 88 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
-----------------
TOO:-01/2330 EF

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 011556
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1530 UTC 01 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS MMAHA) OVER EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA MOVED FURTHER WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 10
KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED
AT 1200 UTC IST OF TODAY, THE 01ST NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 69.5 DEG E, ABOUT
590 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF VERAVAL (GUJARAT) AND 460 KM WEST OF GOA.
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS DURING NEXT 24 HOURS,
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING 02ND TO 04TH NOVEMBER AND RECURVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS SOUTH GUJARAT COAST THEREAFTER. IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/02 AT 00 UTC 16.6 N / 68.6 E MAX WIND 60 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/02 AT 12 UTC 17.2 N/ 67.9 E MAX WIND 65 KTS VERY
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

THE DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF 13 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200
UTC IST OF TODAY, THE 01ST NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 57.5 DEG E, ABOUT 1670 KM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI (MAHARASHTRA), 420 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
SALALAH (OMAN) AND 600 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (OMAN). IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARDS ACROSS WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA,
MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY OF A DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND
WEAKEN INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA THEREAFTER (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO
30 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA..

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 64 DEG E: SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: ANTICYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)S OF 5 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E:SW/S-LY 10/15 KTS
BEC S/SE-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 7 DEG N (.)
2)E OF 60 TO 70 DEG E: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO
THE N OF 4 DEG N (.)
3)REST AREA: CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 71 DEG E:WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 71 DEG E:3-2 NM (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E: CYCLONIC 65/75 KTS (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E : CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 70/80 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 88 DEG E: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA :S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF 5
DEG N(.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)W OF 84 DEG N: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC N/NE-LY 05/10
KTS TO THE S OF 18 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS
TO THE 18 DEG N TO E OF 87 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 13 DEG N TO W OF 88 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 13 DEG N TO W OF 88 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
----------------------------------------------
TOO:-01/2100 EF

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 011500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 15.8N 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.7N 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.5N 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 011500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191101130635
2019110112 05A MAHA 010 02 300 10 SATL 045
T000 158N 0693E 045 R034 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 167N 0682E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 175N 0673E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 180N 0664E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 183N 0653E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 189N 0633E 090 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 196N 0636E 085 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 199N 0663E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 15.8N 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.7N 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.5N 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.0N 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.3N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.9N 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.6N 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.9N 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 69.0E.
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103118 141N 724E 45
0519110100 146N 715E 45
0519110106 153N 702E 45
0519110112 158N 693E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 15.8N 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.7N 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.5N 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.0N 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.3N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.9N 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.6N 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.9N 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 69.0E.
01NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 150 NM CIRRUS SHIELD WITH
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION, PLACED USING A 011118Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT
SUGGESTED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOLLOWS MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
FIX INTENSITIES OF T3.0 (45 KTS). GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. TC 05A IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AROUND TAU 72, THE
TRACK WILL SHIFT DRAMATICALLY DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SHOULD CAUSE A BREAK IN THE STR AND ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO SWING ONTO AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK BY TAU 120. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION UNTIL HIGHER
VWS CAUSES WEAKENING AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. WITH 380 NM OF
SPREAD AT TAU 120 IN A COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR FINAL
WARNING.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 011050
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1030 UTC 01 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M\U2019MAHA) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED
OF 13 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT 0600 HRS UTC OF
01ST NOVEMBER, 2019, OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 15.2
DEG N AND LONGITUDE 70.5 DEG E ABOUT 640 KM SOUTH OF VERAVAL
(GUJARAT), 530 KM NORTHNORTHWEST OF MANGALURU (KARNATAKA) AND 350 KM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GOA. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS, WESTNORTHWESTWARDS DURING 02ND TO 04TH NOVEMBER
AND RECURVE EASTNORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS SOUTH GUJARAT COAST
THEREAFTER. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/01 AT 18 UTC 16.01 N / 69.5 E MAX WIND 60 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/02 AT 06 UTC 17.0 N/ 68.7 E MAX WIND 65 KTS VERY
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

THE DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH
A SPEED OF 09 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC
OF THE 01ST NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE
16.0 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 58.7 DEG E, ABOUT 1530 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
MUMBAI (43003), 510 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH(41316) AND 510 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (41288). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARDS ACROSS WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND WEAKEN INTO A WELL
MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING NEXT 12 HOURS(.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA.

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 64 DEG E:ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10
KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)


ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E: CYCLONIC 60/75 KTS (.)
2) W OF 60 DEG E: CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 62 DEG E: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E: CYCLONIC 75/80 KTS (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E:NE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG E: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA :NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG N: CYCLONIC 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05/10
KTS TO THE S OF 18 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 010900
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 01 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M\U2019MAHA) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING LAKSHADWEEP AREA MOVED
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 13 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY
CENTERED AT 0300 UTC OF 01ST NOVEMBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 DEG N
AND LONGITUDE 71.0 DEG E OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA ABOUT 450 KM
NORTHNORTHWEST OF AMINIDIVI (43311), 460 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
MANGALURU (43284) AND 310 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GOA (43192). IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS DURING NEXT 06 HOURS AND
THEREAFTER MOVE WESTNORTHWESTWARDS TILL 5TH NOVEMBER MORNING AND
RECURVE NORTHEASTWARDS SUBSEQUENTLY. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA DURING
NEXT 12 HOURS (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/01 AT 15 UTC 15.9 N/69.9 E MAX WIND 70 KTS VERY
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/02 AT 03 UTC 16.6 N/68.9 E MAX WIND 75 KTS VERY
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

THE DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH
A SPEED OF 6 KNOTS DURING PAST 6 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF
01ST NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 16.3
DEG N AND LONGITUDE 59.0 DEG E, ABOUT 1490 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
MUMBAI (43003), 540 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH (41316) AND 480 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH (41288). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
SOUTHWESTWARDS ACROSS WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND WEAKEN INTO A WELL
MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING NEXT 12 HOURS (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC NW-LY 05/10 KTS
TO E OF 70 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)S OF 5 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 57 DEG E:SW/S-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
2)N OF 5 DEG N TO E OF 57 DEG E: SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC NW-LY 05/10
KTS TO E OF 70 DEG E (.)
3)REST AREA: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF 3 DEG
N (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 66 DEG E:WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)W OF 56 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 66 DEG E:3-2 NM (.)
2)W OF 56 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E: CYCLONIC 60/70 KTS (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E : CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 70/80 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 86 DEG E: ANTI-CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS
(.)
2)REST AREA :NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG N: ANTI-CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS
(.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC N/NE-LY 05/10
KTS TO THE S OF 18 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 89 DEG E:CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 010900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 15.3N 70.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 70.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.3N 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.2N 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 010900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191101075126
2019110106 05A MAHA 009 02 300 14 SATL 030
T000 153N 0702E 045 R034 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 065 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 163N 0690E 050 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD
T024 172N 0680E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 179N 0672E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 183N 0663E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 188N 0646E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 196N 0641E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 203N 0659E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 15.3N 70.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 70.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.3N 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.2N 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.9N 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.3N 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.8N 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.6N 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.3N 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 69.9E.
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103112 132N 729E 55
0519103118 141N 724E 45
0519110100 146N 715E 45
0519110106 153N 702E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 15.3N 70.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 70.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.3N 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.2N 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.9N 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.3N 66.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.8N 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.6N 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 20.3N 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 69.9E.
01NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 598
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A SHEARED CIRRUS
SHIELD WITH LOW LEVEL RAIN BANDS VISIBLE TO THE EAST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 010450Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS
PROVIDES FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, 34-KT WIND RADII,
AND INTENSITY. ADDITIONALLY, A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. GOOD
WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION. TC 05A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 72, THE TRACK WILL SHIFT
DRAMATICALLY DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT SHOULD CAUSE A BREAK IN THE STR. BY TAU 120, TC 05A SHOULD BE
ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION UNTIL
HIGHER VWS CAUSES WEAKENING AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD IS OVER 220 NM AT TAU 72, ALL THE
MODELS DEPICT THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TURN. BASED ON THE SHARP TURN
IN THE FORECAST, SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, AND THE COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
04A (KYARR) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 010441
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0400 UTC 01 NOVEMBER 2019.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MAHA (PRONOUNCED AS M'MAHA) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING LAKSHADWEEP AREA MOVED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 09 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS,
AND LAY CENTERED AT 0000 UTC OF 01 ST NOVEMBER, 2019 NEAR
LATITUDE 14.6 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 71.7 DEG E OVER EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA ABOUT 300 KM NORTH OF CHERIAPANI REEF
(LAKSHADWEEP), 400 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AMINIDIVI (LAKSHADWEEP)
AND 390 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANGALURU (KARNATAKA). IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS DURING NEXT 06 HOURS. THEN,
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS DURING SUBSEQUENT 06 HOURS
AND THEREAFTER MOVE WESTNORTHWESTWARDS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 12 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 65 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2019/11/01 AT 12 UTC 15.8 N / 70.4 E MAX WIND 70 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2019/11/02 AT 00 UTC 16.8 N/ 69.3 E MAX WIND 75 KTS VERY
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED SOUTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF 03 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HRS, WEAKENED INTO A
DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF 01 ST NOVEMBER, 2019 OVER
WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 59.5
DEG E, ABOUT 1440 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI (MAHARASHTRA), 580 KM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SALALAH (OMAN) AND 470 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
MASIRAH (OMAN). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARDS ACROSS
WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
WEAKEN FURTHER INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING NEXT 12
HOURS (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 64 DEG E:ANTI-CYCLONIC 05/10
KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-3.0 MTR (.)


ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E: CYCLONIC 60/75 KTS (.)
2) W OF 60 DEG E: CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 62 DEG E: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-4.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 60 DEG E: CYCLONIC 75/80 KTS (.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E:NE-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: ABOVE 14.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG E: CYCLONIC 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA :NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDEPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)E OF 87 DEG N: CYCLONIC 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NE/E-LY 05/10
KTS TO THE S OF 18 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 010300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 71.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 71.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.3N 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 010300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191101014228
2019110100 05A MAHA 008 02 325 10 SATL 050
T000 151N 0718E 050 R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 163N 0705E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 172N 0694E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 179N 0684E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 184N 0675E 075 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T072 188N 0665E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 193N 0656E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 199N 0650E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 71.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 71.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.3N 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.2N 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.9N 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.4N 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.8N 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.3N 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.9N 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 71.5E.
01NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 808
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 60
0519103106 120N 735E 60
0519103112 132N 729E 60
0519103112 132N 729E 60
0519103118 143N 724E 55
0519103118 143N 724E 55
0519110100 151N 718E 50
0519110100 151N 718E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 71.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 71.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.3N 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.2N 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.9N 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.4N 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.8N 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.3N 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.9N 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 71.5E.
01NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 808
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 312041Z AMSR 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THERE IS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0-3.5 (45-55 KTS) AND A 312030Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). TC 05A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN INDIA. THE STR WILL MAINTAIN AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE OF TC 05A FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE AS TC 05A PROGRESSES ALONG ITS TRACK POLEWARD. HOWEVER, BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 96, THE TRACK SHOULD TAKE TC 05A OVER UPWELLED, COOLER WATERS (26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS) FROM TC 04A LIMITING THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WITH A SPREAD IS 200NM BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY WHETHER TC 05A WILL RECURVE TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN INDIA OR BEGIN TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARDS OMAN. THE JTWC TRACK IS CURRENTLY HEDGING TOWARDS THE RECURVE SCENARIO WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 312100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 14.3N 72.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 72.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.7N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 312100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191031200829
2019103118 05A MAHA 007 02 335 12 SATL 045
T000 143N 0724E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 075 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 157N 0712E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 167N 0700E 060 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 176N 0688E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 181N 0679E 075 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 188N 0656E 085 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 190N 0640E 090 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 191N 0630E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 14.3N 72.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 72.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.7N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.7N 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.6N 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.1N 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.8N 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.0N 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.1N 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 72.1E.
31OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 860
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 120N 735E 60
0519103106 120N 735E 60
0519103112 132N 729E 60
0519103112 132N 729E 60
0519103118 143N 724E 55
0519103118 143N 724E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 14.3N 72.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 72.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.7N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.7N 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.6N 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.1N 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.8N 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.0N 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 19.1N 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 72.1E.
31OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 860
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 311405Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW SOME
SHALLOW BANDING TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THERE IS
OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION USING A COMBINATION
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 311618Z METOP-A ASCAT
PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
MULTI-AGENCY T3.0-3.5 (55-65 KTS) AND A 311544Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
52 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAIR POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). TC
05A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN INDIA. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24,
THE STR WILL REORIENT AND CAUSE THE TRACK TO BECOME WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WHERE IT WILL REMAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. AFTER TAU 24, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASES SLIGHTLY.
HOWEVER, BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 96, THE TRACK SHOULD TAKE TC 05A OVER
UPWELLED, COOLER WATERS FROM TC 04A AND SST SHOULD DECREASE TO 26-27
CELSIUS, LIMITING THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST BUT SPREAD IS 170NM BY
TAU 72 AND 255 NM BY TAU 120, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A
(KYARR) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 311500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191031131850
2019103112 05A MAHA 006 02 340 12 SATL 045
T000 130N 0727E 060 R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 075 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 144N 0718E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 158N 0705E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 167N 0693E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 172N 0683E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 177N 0657E 085 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 179N 0635E 090 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 181N 0624E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 13.0N 72.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 72.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.4N 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.8N 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.7N 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.2N 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.7N 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.9N 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.1N 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 72.5E.
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 119N 731E 60
0519103106 119N 731E 60
0519103112 130N 727E 60
0519103112 130N 727E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 13.0N 72.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 72.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.4N 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.8N 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.7N 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.2N 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.7N 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.9N 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.1N 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 72.5E.
31OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 778
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (AMSI) SHOWS SOME SHALLOW BANDING JUST
TO THE EAST OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION USING A COMBINATION OF THE AMSI AND A 311130Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH PRESENTS A SOMEWHAT CONFUSING
PATTERN BUT SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS SOMEWHERE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60
KTS FALLS BETWEEN PGTW/KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T3.5-4.0 (55-65 KTS). MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
PARTIALLY OFFSETTING EXCELLENT WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) TO HAMPER INTENSIFICATION. TC
05A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24, THE STR WILL REORIENT AND CAUSE THE
TRACK TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHERE IT WILL REMAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE TRACK SHIFT, VWS IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION. BETWEEN
TAU 48 AND 96, THE TRACK SHOULD TAKE TC 05A OVER UPWELLED, COOLER
WATERS FROM TC 04A AND SST SHOULD DECREASE TO 26-27 CELSIUS. THIS
UPWELLING SHOULD SERVE TO REDUCE THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE TRACK FORECAST BUT SPREAD IS
350 NM BY TAU 120, LENDING TO LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z,
010900Z AND 011500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNINGS
(WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 310900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191031075846
2019103106 05A MAHA 005 02 340 06 SATL 030
T000 119N 0731E 060 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 135N 0722E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 149N 0710E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 159N 0697E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 166N 0685E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 173N 0660E 080 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T096 174N 0629E 085 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T120 180N 0613E 095 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 11.9N 73.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 73.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 13.5N 72.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.9N 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.9N 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.6N 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.3N 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.4N 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.0N 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 72.9E.
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 736E 50
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103100 113N 733E 55
0519103106 119N 731E 60
0519103106 119N 731E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 11.9N 73.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 73.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 13.5N 72.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 14.9N 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.9N 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 16.6N 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.3N 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.4N 62.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.0N 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 72.9E.
31OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 848
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS OBSCURED BY DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. RAIN BANDS TO THE EAST
PROVIDE FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. AT 60 KTS, THE
INTENSITY IS BETWEEN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T4.0 (65 KTS) AND A 310229Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 52 KTS. FAIR
WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) ARE OFFSETTING MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO MAKE
THE ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. TC 05A IS TRACKING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. AROUND TAU
24, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
REORIENTS SLIGHTLY. BY TAU 120, A SLIGHT POLEWARD SHIFT TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE STR IS EXPECTED. VWS WILL BECOME LOWER AROUND TAU 36,
ALLOWING FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
COOLER SST DUE TO UPWELLING FROM TC 04A WILL INFLUENCE THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE SLIGHTLY AROUND TAU 72. WITH TAU 120 SPREAD AT
OVER 300 NM, UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS HIGH. MOST OF
THE MEMBERS ARE CLUSTERED NEAR THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST BUT ECMWF IS A
POLEWARD OUTLIER RIGHT FROM THE START OF THE FORECAST. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF AIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR ECMWF WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 310600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND
010900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 11.1N 73.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 73.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 12.8N 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.4N 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.5N 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.4N 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.4N 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.3N 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.7N 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 72.9E.
31OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 996
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH POOR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTIAL 302240Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF TC 05A. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0-4.0 (45-65 KNOTS) AND A 302050Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 46 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 05A IS IN
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) WITH A FAIR
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
(29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. TC 05A IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE STR WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A SPREAD OF 150NM. HOWEVER, THE SPREAD
INCREASES TO 355NM BY TAU 120 AS A BIFURCATION DEVELOPS WITH A
RECURVE SCENARIO INTO A BREAK IN THE STR (NAVGEM AND UKMET) AND A
WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE REMAINING MEMBERS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION
BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW IN THE REGION AND THE LACK OF A DYNAMIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
STEADY INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, TC 05A WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY TAU 60 AS A RESULT OF UPWELLING
CAUSED BY THE PASSAGE OF TC 04A SEVERAL DAYS AGO. BASED ON THE WIDE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
310000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND
010300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNINGS (WTIO31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 310300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191031013653
2019103100 05A MAHA 004 02 320 06 SATL 050
T000 111N 0731E 050 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 085 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 128N 0724E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 144N 0713E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 155N 0700E 060 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 164N 0687E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T072 174N 0664E 070 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 173N 0633E 075 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T120 177N 0602E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 11.1N 73.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 73.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 12.8N 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.4N 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.5N 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.4N 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.4N 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.3N 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.7N 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 72.9E.
31OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 996
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 735E 45
0519103100 111N 731E 50
0519103100 111N 731E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 310300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 11.1N 73.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 73.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 12.8N 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 302100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 10.6N 73.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 73.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 12.3N 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.0N 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 302100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191030210508
2019103018 05A MAHA 003 02 325 09 SATL 030
T000 106N 0735E 045 R034 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 123N 0726E 055 R050 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 140N 0715E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 152N 0703E 060 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD
T048 163N 0689E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 177N 0667E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 180N 0649E 075 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 181N 0623E 085 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 10.6N 73.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 73.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 12.3N 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.0N 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.2N 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.3N 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.7N 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.0N 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.1N 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 73.3E.
30OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 929
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
0519103018 106N 735E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 10.6N 73.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 73.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 12.3N 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.0N 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.2N 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.3N 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.7N 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.0N 64.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.1N 62.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 11.0N 73.3E.
30OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 929
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 05A CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE AND THAT CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS
BASED ON A 301841Z GMI 36GHZ IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS
BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND A 301610Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 05A IS EXPERIENCE FAVORABLE TO NEUTRAL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). TC 05A HAS A MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS INHIBITED BY THE
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM TC 04A. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 05A IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE STR WILL BE THE PRIMARY
STEERING FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A SPREAD OF 80NM. HOWEVER, THE
SPREAD INCREASES TO 355NM BY TAU 120 WITH ECMWF ON THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND NAVGEM ON THE EASTERN EDGE. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT FAVORS THE
ECMWF SOLUTION BASED ON THE ZONAL FLOW IN THE REGION AND THE LACK OF
A DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE NAVGEM SOLUTION.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO STEADY
INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, TC 05A WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY TAU 60 AS A RESULT OF UPWELLING CAUSED BY
THE PASSAGE OF TC 04A SEVERAL DAYS AGO. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS
DECREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS ALSO SLIGHTLY LOWERED AS A RESULT BUT REMAINS ABOVE THE
CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN BOTH TRACK
AND INTENSITY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A
(KYARR) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 301500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 9.9N 74.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N 74.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 11.8N 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 13.7N 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 301500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191030132146
2019103012 05A FIVE 002 02 325 14 SATL 040
T000 099N 0740E 045 R034 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 118N 0730E 050 R050 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 137N 0718E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 151N 0706E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T048 163N 0693E 065 R064 010 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T072 179N 0669E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T096 183N 0648E 085 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T120 183N 0622E 095 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 9.9N 74.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N 74.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 11.8N 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 13.7N 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.1N 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.3N 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.9N 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.3N 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.3N 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 73.7E.
30OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 979
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
0519103012 99N 740E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 9.9N 74.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N 74.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 11.8N 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 13.7N 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.1N 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.3N 69.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.9N 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.3N 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.3N 62.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 73.7E.
30OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 979
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION PREDOMINANTLY IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS ON THE UPPER END OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30KTS) FROM DEMS, T2.5 (35KTS) FROM KNES, AND T3.0 (45KTS) FROM PGTW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS
AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.7. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TC 05A IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) THAT ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
SITUATED OVER EAST-CENTRAL INDIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE TRACK WILL TURN WESTWARD AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A SECOND STR, CENTERED OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA, BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE STEERING. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST. THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIERS ARE THE UKMET AND NAVGEM MODELS WHICH INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE STEERING RIDGE AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN INDIA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS NOT AN IMPOSSIBILITY BUT IS LESS LIKELY THAN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS TC 05A MOVES CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASES WHILE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IMPROVES. BASED ON THE DISCUSSED VARIATIONS IN NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS, OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 300900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 8.8N 74.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 74.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 10.8N 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 12.6N 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

Original Message :

WTIO52 PGTW 300900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05A NIO 191030081923
2019103006 05A FIVE 001 02 320 14 SATL 025
T000 088N 0748E 035 R034 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 108N 0737E 040 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 126N 0726E 045 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 143N 0714E 050 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 157N 0702E 055 R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 177N 0677E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 183N 0653E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 182N 0628E 085 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 8.8N 74.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 74.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 10.8N 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 12.6N 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.3N 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.7N 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.7N 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.3N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.2N 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 74.5E.
30OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620
NM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0519102900 48N 777E 20
0519102906 52N 773E 25
0519102912 58N 770E 25
0519102918 67N 765E 25
0519103000 77N 757E 30
0519103006 88N 748E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO32 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 8.8N 74.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 74.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 10.8N 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 12.6N 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.3N 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.7N 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.7N 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.3N 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.2N 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 74.5E.
30OCT19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM
SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED WITHIN A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN 300507Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
AND ON A 300600Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
SUPPORTED BY 35 KNOT WINDS EVIDENT IN THE ASCAT DATA. TC 05A HAS
CONSOLIDATED TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS), FAVORABLE
WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C).
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL INDIA. THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72, BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE AS ADDITIONAL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THE
MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE
UKMET, GALWEM AND NAVGEM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM MAY MOVE
THROUGH A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE STEERING RIDGE AND TURN
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN INDIA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS NOTEWORTHY, BUT HAS A LOWER PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRING. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS TC 05A MOVES CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASES. BASED ON NOTED DISCREPANCIES IN
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 04A (KYARR) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>