Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for JAWAD-21 Off-shore from 03 Dec 2021 00:00 UTC to 04 Dec 2021 06:00 UTC

Original Message :

WTIN20 DEMS 051504

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 05.12.2021
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY
OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT
1500 UTC OF 05.12.2021 BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 05.12.2021.
SUB: DEPRESSION (REMNANT OF CYCLONIC STORM JAWAD OVER NORTHWEST BAY
OF BENGAL NEAR ODISHA COAST
THE DEPRESSION (REMNANT OF CYCLONIC STORM \U2018JAWAD\U2019) OVER
NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR ODISHA COAST MOVED NORTHEASTWARDS WITH A
SPEED OF 25 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT 1730 HRS
IST OF TODAY, THE 05TH
DECEMBER 2021, OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL CLOSE TO ODISHA COAST
NEAR
LAT. 20.1ON AND LONG. 86.9OE, ABOUT 30 KM SOUTHEAST OF OF PARADIP
(42976), 120 KM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PURI (43053), 210 SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAGAR ISLAND
(42903)
IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS, TOWARDS WEST BENGAL COAST AND
WEAKEN INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING NEXT 12 HOURS.
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:

DATE/TIME POSITION MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE CATEGORY OF
(UTC) (LAT.0N/LONG.0E) WIND SPEED (KMPH) CYCLONIC
DISTURBANCE

05.12.21/1200 20.1/86.9 45-55 GUSTING TO 65 DEPRESSION
05.12.21/1800 20.7/87.5 40-50 GUSTING TO 60 DEPRESSION
06.12.21/0000 21.3/88.1 30-40 GUSTING TO 50 WELL MARKED LOW

AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 5TH DEC, THE INTENSITY
OF THE
SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED AS T1.5. ASSOCIATED CLOUD MASS WITH EMBEDDED
INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER NORTHEAST ODISHA AND
MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER NORTHWEST ODISHA,
JHARKHAND AND
SOUTH GANGETIC WEST BENGAL. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO
MEDIUM
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER
NORTHWEST BOB, NORTH OF LATITUDE 18.50N AND WEST OF LONGITUDE 85.00E.
THE
MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 93 DEG C.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35
KNOTS.
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1004 HPA. SEA CONDITION WOULD BE
ROUGH
TO VERY ROUGH OVER NORTHWEST BOB ALONG AND OFF ODISHA-WEST BENGAL
COASTS
DURING NEXT 12 HOURS.
REMARKS:
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 28-29
\U1D52
C OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING
NORTHWEST BOB AND IS SLIGHTLY LESS ABOUT 26-28
\U1D52
C TOWARDS NORTHWEST BOB
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS 60-80
KJ/CM
2
OVER WESTCENTRAL BOB AND IS GRADUALLY DECREASING TOWARDS COAST

THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR THE WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER
COUNTRIES,. PLEASE VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY
SPECIFIC BULLETINS
BECOMING LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM
2
OVER NORTHWEST BOB OFF NORTH ODISHA COAST
TO BANGLADESH COAST. DEPTH OF 26
0
C ISOTHERM IS ABOUT 100M OVER
NORTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BOB. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION
INDEX BEING CURRENTLY IN PHASE 6 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1 WILL NOT
SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE BOB REGION.
WIND SHEAR IS HIGH AND IS ABOUT 20-25 KNOTS OVER THE SYSTEM AREA. IT
IS
FURTHER INCREASING TOWARDS NORTHWEST BOB ALONG THE TRACK. POSITIVE
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY AND IS ABOUT 60-80X10
-6
S
-1
TO THE
SOUTH OF SYSTEM CENTRE WITH VERTICAL EXTENSION UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL.
LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS DECREASED AND IS ABOUT 05X10
-6
S
-1
TO THE NORTHEAST
OF SYSTEM CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS DECREASED AND IS 10X10
-5
S
-1
OVER NORTHWEST BOB AND IS EAST-WEST ORIENTED. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE RUNS ALONG 18.5
0
N. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS
ALONG ODISHA COAST AS IT IS LYING CLOSE TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
ANTICYCLONE OVER MYANMAR REGION.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING WEAKENING OF SYSTEM BY
0000 UTC OF 6
TH
DECEMBER WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS MOVEMENT OFF
ODISHA COAST ON 5
TH
. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING THE SYSTEM TO REACH CLOSE
TO WEST BENGAL \U2013BANGLADESH COAST AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA ON 6
TH
.
DUE TO UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES INCLUDING ENHANCED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LAND INTERACTIONS, DECREASED OCEAN THERMAL
ENERGY
OVER NORTHWEST BOB AND UNFAVOURABLE MJO PHASE, THE SYSTEM WILL
DISSIPATE GRADUALLY.
IN VIEW OF ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS WEST BENGAL COAST AND WEAKEN INTO A WELL
MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING NEXT 12 HOURS.

NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 2100 UTC OF 5 TH DECEMBER 2021.=

>

Original Message :

WTIN20 DEMS 051150

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 05.12.2021
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND
ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 1200 UTC OF
05.12.2021 BASED ON 0900
UTC OF 05.12.2021.
SUB: DEEP DEPRESSION (REMNANT OF CYCLONIC STORM JAWAD WEAKENED INTO A
DEPRESSION OVER NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR ODISHA COAST
THE DEEP DEPRESSION (REMNANT OF CYCLONIC STORM JAWAD OVER NORTHWEST
AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF 18 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS, WEAKENED INTO A
DEPRESSION
AND LAY CENTERED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 05TH DECEMBER 2021, OVER
NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL CLOSE TO ODISHA COAST NEAR LAT. 19.5ON AND
LONG.
86.2OE, ABOUT 50 KM SOUTHEAST OF PURI (43053), 100 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF
PARADIP (42976), 130 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GOPALPUR (43049), AND 370
KM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM (43149).
IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS, ALONG ODISHA
COAST
TOWARDS WEST BENGAL COAST AND WEAKEN INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE
AREA AROUND 1800 UTC OF 5TH DECEMBER 2021.

FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:

DATE/TIME POSITION MAXIMUM SUSTAINED CATEGORY OF
CYCLONIC
(UTC) (LAT.0N/LONG.0E) SURFACE WIND SPEED DISTURBANCE
(KMPH)

05.12.21/0900 19.5/86.2 45-55 GUSTING TO 65 DEPRESSION

05.12.21/1200 19.9/86.6 45-55 GUSTING TO 65 DEPRESSION

05.12.21/1800 20.6/87.3 30-40 GUSTING TO 50 WELL MARKED LOW

AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 0900 UTC OF 5TH DEC, THE INTENSITY
OF THE
SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED AS T1.5/C.I.1.5. ASSOCIATED CLOUD MASS WITH
EMBEDDED
INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER EAST ODISHA AND
MODERATE TO
INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER WEST ODISHA, JHARKHAND AND GANGETIC
WEST
BENGAL. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER WESTCENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BOB, NORTH OF LATITUDE 17.50N AND WEST OF LONGITUDE 89.00E.
THE
MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 93 DEG C.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35
KNOTS.
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1006 HPA. SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH
TO VERY
ROUGH OVER NORTHWEST BOB ALONG AND OFF ODISHA-WEST BENGAL COASTS DURING
NEXT 12 HOURS.

THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR THE WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER
COUNTRIES,. PLEASE VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY
SPECIFIC BULLETINS=

>

Original Message :

WTIN20 DEMS 050650
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 05.12.2021
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 05.12.2021 BASED ON 0300
UTC OF 05.12.2021.
SUB:DEEP DEPRESSION (REMNANT OF CYCLONIC STORM JAWAD ) OVER NORTHWEST
AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
THE DEEP DEPRESSION REMNANT OF CYCLONIC STORM JAWAD OVER NORTHWEST
AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF 20 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT 0300 UTC OF
TODAY, THE 05TH DECEMBER 2021, OVER NORTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL
BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LAT. 18.7?N AND LONG. 85.6?E, ABOUT 270 KM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF VISHAKHAPATNAM (43149), 90 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GOPALPUR (43049), 120 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PURI (43053) AND 210 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PARADIP
(42976).
IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS, WEAKEN FURTHER INTO A
DEPRESSION AND REACH ODISHA COAST NEAR PURI DURING NEXT 06 HOURS.
SUBSEQUENTLY, IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS ALONG
ODISHA COAST TOWARDS WEST BENGAL COAST AND WEAKEN INTO A WELL MARKED
LOW PRESSURE AREA AROUND 1800 UTC OF 5TH DECEMBER.
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:

DATE/TIME POSITION MAXIMUM SUSTAINED CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
(UTC) (LAT.0N/LONG.0E) SURFACE WIND SPEED DISTURBANCE
(KMPH)
05.12.21/0300 18.7/85.6 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression
05.12.21/0600 19.2/85.9 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression
05.12.21/1200 19.9/86.5 40-50 gusting to 60 Depression
05.12.21/1800 20.7/87.3 30-40 gusting to 50 Low Pressure Area

AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 5TH DEC, THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED AS T2.0. ASSOCIATED CLOUD MASS WITH EMBEDDED
INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER EXTREME NORTH COASTAL
ANDHRA PRADESH AND EAST ODISHA AND MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER
JHARKHAND, WEST ODISHA AND GANGETIC WEST BENGAL. ASSCOAITED SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LOW TO MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER WESTCENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BOB, NORTH OF LATITUDE 17.50N
AND WEST OF LONGITUDE 89.00E. THE MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 93
DEG C.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1004 HPA. SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH OVER NORTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BOB AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE.

This is a guidance Bulletin for the WMO/ESCAP Panel Member countries,.
Please visit respective National websites for Country specific Bulletins

>

Original Message :

WTIN20 DEMS 050400
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 05.12.2021
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL A ND
ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0330 UTC OF
05.12.2021 BASED ON 0000
UTC OF 05.12.2021.
SUB: DEEP DEPRESSION REMNANT OF CYCLONIC STORM JAWAD OVER NORTHWEST
AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
THE DEEP DEPRESSION REMNANT OF CYCLONIC STORM JAWAD
(PRONOUNCED AS
JOWAD) OVER W ESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED
EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH A
SPEED OF 15 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT
0000 UTC OF 05TH
DECEMBER 2021, OVER NORTHWEST AND ADJOINING W ESTCENTRAL BAY
OF BENGAL
NEAR LAT. 18.2ON AND LONG. 85.4OE, ABOUT 230 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
VISHAKHAPATNAM (43149), 130 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GOPALPUR
(43049), 130 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PURI (43053) AND 360 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
PARADIP
(42976).
IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST W ARDS AND WEAKEN
FURTHER INTO A
DEPRESSION AND REACH ODISHA COAST NEAR PURI (43053) AROUND
0600 UTC OF 5TH
DECEMBER. SUBSEQUENTLY, IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARDS ALONG ODISHA COAST TOWARDS WEST BENGAL COAST
AND
WEAKEN INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING SUBSEQUENT
12 HOURS.
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING
TABLE:
DATE/TIME POSITION MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE CATEGORY OF
CYCLONIC
(UTC) LAT. N/ LONG. E) WIND SPEED (KMPH) DISTURBANCE

05.12.21/0000 18.2/85.4 50-60 GUSTING TO 70 DEEP DEPRESSION
05.12.21/0600 19.1/85.9 45-55 GUSTING TO 65 DEPRESSION
05.12.21/1200 19.8/86.4 40-50 GUSTING TO 60 DEPRESSION
05.12.21/1800 20.6/87.3 30-40 GUSTING TO 50 LOW PRESSURE
AREA
AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 5TH DEC, THE
INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED AS T2.0. ASSOCIATED CLOUD MASS WITH
EMBEDDED
INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION ARE SEEN OVER EXTRME NORTH
COASTAL
ANDHRA PRADESH AND EAST ODISHA, AND MODERATE CONVECTION OVER
JHARKHAND,
WEST ODISHA AND GANGETIC WEST BENGAL. ASSCOAITED BROKEN LOW TO
MEDIUM
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER
WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF LATITUDE 17.50N AND WEST
OF LONGITUDE
89.00E. THE MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 93 DEG C.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 40 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1004 HPA. SEA
CONDITION IS HIGH OVER
WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR THE WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER
COUNTRIES,. PLEASE VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY
SPECIFIC BULLETINS
AT 0000 UTC, A SHIP NEAR 18.6ON/88.1OE REPORTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED (MSW)
OF 320O/17KTS AND MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MSLP) OF 1010 HPA.
REMARKS:
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 28-29\U1D52C OVER W ESTCENTRAL
BOB AND
ABOUT 27-28\U1D52C TOWARDS NORTHWEST BOB ALONG THE TRACK. TROPICAL
CYCLONE
HEAT POTENTIAL IS 80-100 KJ/CM2 OVER W ESTCENTRAL BOB AND IS
GRADUALLY
DECREASING TOWARDS COAST AND OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST BOB BECOMING 50-
60 KJ/CM2. DEPTH OF 260C ISOTHERM IS 100-120 M OVER W ESTCENTRAL AND
ADJOINING
NORTHWEST BOB. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX IS CURRENTLY IN
PHASE
6 W ITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1 AND W ILL NOT SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL REGION.
MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING W EAKENING OF
SYSTEM
WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS MOVEMENT OFF ODISHA COAST DURING 5TH/0000
UTC TO 6TH /0000 UTC. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING THE SYSTEM TO REACH
CLOSE
TO WEST BENGAL \U2013BANGLADESH COAST AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA
THEREAFTER.
WIND SHEAR IS MODERTE AND IS ABOUT 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE SYSTEM
AREA.
IT IS BECOMING HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) OVER NORTHWEST BOB. POSITIVE LOW
LEVEL
VORTICITY IS ABOUT 100X10-6S-1 AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE W ITH
VERTICAL
EXTENSION UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS 20X10-6S-1 TO
THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
20X10-5S-1
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 180N.
THE SYSTEM IS RE-CURVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS ALONG ODISHA COAST AS
IT
IS LYING CLOSE TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONE OVER MYANMAR
REGION.
THE SYSTEM W ILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS REACH NEAR PURI
(43053)
AROUND 0600 UTC OF 5TH DECEMBER AND W EKEN FURTHER INTO A DEPRESSION.
SUBSEQUENTLY THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS
ALONG ODISHA COAST TOWARDS WEST BENGAL COAST AND W EKEN INTO A WEL
MARKED LOW DUE TO ADVERNSE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OF ENHANCED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LAND INTERACTION AND DECREASING OCEAN THERMAL
ENERGY.
NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF 5TH DECEMBER 2021.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 040900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05B NIO 211204075709
2021120406 05B JAWAD 006 01 360 06 SATL 040
T000 161N 0849E 030
T012 172N 0851E 030
T024 182N 0855E 025
T036 203N 0869E 020
AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (JAWAD) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (JAWAD) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 16.1N 84.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 84.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.2N 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.2N 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.3N 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 84.9E.
04DEC21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (JAWAD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 437
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z
IS 10 FEET.
//
0521112812 79N1094E 15
0521112818 81N1078E 15
0521112900 82N1062E 15
0521112906 82N1048E 15
0521112912 84N1031E 15
0521112918 87N1020E 20
0521113000 93N1010E 20
0521113006 94N 994E 15
0521113012 93N 977E 15
0521113018 92N 971E 20
0521120100 85N 956E 20
0521120106 84N 939E 20
0521120112 88N 927E 25
0521120118 92N 916E 25
0521120200 98N 904E 25
0521120206 104N 894E 25
0521120212 116N 881E 30
0521120218 126N 870E 30
0521120300 134N 860E 35
0521120306 140N 855E 35
0521120312 148N 853E 35
0521120318 148N 849E 35
0521120400 155N 849E 30
0521120406 161N 849E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (JAWAD) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (JAWAD) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 16.1N 84.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 84.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 17.2N 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.2N 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 20.3N 86.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 84.9E.
04DEC21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (JAWAD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 437
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAK, PARTIALLY EXPOSED SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH. MSI ALSO DEPICTS ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION ABOUT 250+ NM TO THE NORTHEAST THAT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS ARE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE AND POSITION FIX, A 040330z ASCAT-B IMAGE, AND A 040418Z ASCAT-C IMAGE. BOTH ASCAT IMAGES DEPICT AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH MOSTLY 20-25 KT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER WITH SCATTERED 30 KT WINDS. TC 05B IS CURRENTLY IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (>25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PUSHING THE CONVECTION NORTHWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK BY TAU 12 AND WILL CONTINUE THIS DIRECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK FORECAST WITH ONLY A 60 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 36. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z
IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 040439
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR

VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0400 UTC 04 DECEMBER 2021.

PART-I STORM WARNING (.)

SUB: CYCLONIC STORM JAWAD OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL THE
CYCLONIC STORM \U2018JAWAD\U2019 (PRONOUNCED AS JOWAD) OVER
WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WITH A SPEED
OF 04 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTERED AT 0000 UTC OF
TODAY, THE 4 TH DECEMBER 2021, OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL
NEAR LAT. 16.2ON AND LONG. 84.9OE, ABOUT 230 KM SOUTHEAST OF
VISHAKHAPATNAM (43149), 340 KM SOUTH OF GOPALPUR (42049), 410
KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PURI (42053) AND 490 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF PARADIP (42976). IT IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND MOVE
NEARLY NORTHWARDS DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARDS ALONG ODISHA COASTS REACHING NEAR PURI AROUND
5TH DECEMBER NOON AS A DEEP DEPRESSION. SUBSEQUENTLY, IT IS
LIKELY TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHNORTHEASTWARDS
ALONG ODISHA COAST TOWARDS WEST BENGAL COAST. (.)

THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO
50 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 HPA. (.)

12 HRS VALID 2021/12/04 AT 12 UTC 17.2 N / 84.8 E MAX WIND 40 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)

24 HRS VALID 2021/12/05 AT 00 UTC 18.6 N / 85.3 E MAX WIND 30 KTS
DEEP DEPRESSION (.)

PART-II

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E : NE/N-LY 10/15 KTS

BEC NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 3 DEG N (.)

2)REST AREA: NE/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC W/SW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E
OF 70 DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: NE/N-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
NW-LY 05/15 KTS

TO THE S OF 4 DEG N (.)

2)REST AREA: NE-LY 05/15 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE S OF
5 DEG N (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E

TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N :ISOLATED RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N :8-6 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: NW/N-LY 05/10 KTS BEC N/NE-LY 10/20 KTS

TO THE S OF 20 DEG N (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: 8-6 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E

AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND THENCE
S-WARDS

TO EQUATOR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 90 DEG E: SW/S-LY 05/10 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: E/SE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 6-4 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-3.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 88 DEG E: NE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
N/NW-LY 10/15 KTS

TO THE S OF 5 DEG N (.)

2)S OF 5 DEG N TO THE W OF 88 DEG E: NW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)

3)REST AREA: SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-3.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: E/SE-LY 15/25 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 35/40 KTS

TO THE W OF 86 DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)W OF 93 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 93 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: E/SE-LY 10/20 BEC CYCLONIC 25/30 KTS

TO THE W OF 86 DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)W OF 93 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 93 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 040300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05B NIO 211204012000
2021120400 05B JAWAD 005 01 005 09 SATL 060
T000 157N 0850E 035 R034 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 025 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 169N 0850E 035 R034 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 180N 0853E 030
T036 189N 0858E 030
T048 200N 0866E 025
T072 222N 0885E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (JAWAD) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (JAWAD) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 15.7N 85.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 85.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.9N 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.0N 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.9N 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.0N 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.2N 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 85.0E.
04DEC21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (JAWAD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 457
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.
//
0521112812 79N1094E 15
0521112818 81N1078E 15
0521112900 82N1062E 15
0521112906 82N1048E 15
0521112912 84N1031E 15
0521112918 87N1020E 20
0521113000 93N1010E 20
0521113006 94N 994E 15
0521113012 93N 977E 15
0521113018 92N 971E 20
0521120100 85N 956E 20
0521120106 84N 939E 20
0521120112 88N 927E 25
0521120118 92N 916E 25
0521120200 98N 904E 25
0521120206 104N 894E 25
0521120212 116N 881E 30
0521120218 126N 870E 30
0521120300 134N 860E 35
0521120306 140N 855E 35
0521120312 148N 853E 35
0521120318 148N 849E 35
0521120400 157N 850E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (JAWAD) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (JAWAD) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 15.7N 85.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 85.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.9N 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.0N 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.9N 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.0N 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.2N 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 85.0E.
04DEC21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (JAWAD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 457
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 031000

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR

VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1000 UTC 03 DECEMBER 2021.

PART-I

SUB: DEEP DEPRESSION INTENSIFIED INTO CYCLONIC STORM JAWAD OVER
WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL: CYCLONE ALERT FOR NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH
AND ODISHA COASTS (.)

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 13 KTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS,
INTENSIFIED FURTHER INTO CYCLONIC STORM JAWAD
(PRONOUNCED AS JOWAD) AND LAY CENTERED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE
3 RD DECEMBER 2021, OVER WESTCENTRAL OF BENGAL NEAR LAT. 14.5 DEG
N AND LONG. 85.5 DEG E, ABOUT 420 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
VISHAKHAPATNAM (ANDHRA PRADESH), 530 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
GOPALPUR (ODISHA) AND 650 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PARADIP (ODISHA)
(.)

IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFY FURTHER AND REACH
WEST-CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL OFF NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH SOUTH
ODISHA COASTS BY TOMORROW, THE 4 TH DECEMBER MORNING. THEREAFTER
IT IS LIKELY TO RECURVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND MOVE ALONG ODISHA
COAST REACHING NEAR PURI AROUND 5TH DECEMBER NOON. SUBSEQUENTLY IT
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS ALONG COASTAL
ODISHA TOWARDS WEST BENGAL COAST (.)

THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO
45 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2021/12/03 AT 18 UTC 15.7 N / 84.6 E MAX WIND 45 KTS
CYCLONIC STORM (.)

24 HRS VALID 2021/12/04 AT 06 UTC 17.1 N / 84.3 E MAX WIND 50 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 63 DEG E : NE/N-LY 10/15 KTS

BEC NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 3 DEG N (.)

2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : 4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 68 DEG E: NE/N-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
NW-LY 05/15 KTS

TO THE S OF 4 DEG N (.)

2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E

TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 67 DEG E: NE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 72
DEG E(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N :ISOLATED RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N :8-6 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 70 DEG E: N/NW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC
N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS

TO THE S OF 20 DEG N (.)

2)REST AREA: N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 65 DEG E : ISOLATED RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 65 DEG E : 8-6 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E

AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E AND THENCE
S-WARDS

TO EQUATOR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 90 DEG E: SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
SW/S-LY 20/30 KTS

TO THE N OF 8 DEG N (.)

2)REST AREA: N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS BEC N/NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE S OF 5
DEG N(.)

II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-3.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 85 DEG E: N/NE-LY 10/15 KTS BEC
N/NE-LY 05/10 KTS

TO THE S OF 5 DEG N(.)

2)S OF 5 DEG N TO THE W OF 85 DEG E: NW-LY 05/10 KTS(.)

2)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 5 DEG N: 4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-3.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SE-LY 15/25 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 35/45 KTS

TO THE W OF 88 DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)W OF 95 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)W OF 95 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: E/SE-LY 10/20 BEC CYCLONIC 40/50 KTS

TO THE W OF 90 DEG E(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 15 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 15 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020221ZDEC2021//
AMPN/ REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 14.0N 86.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 86.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.7N 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.1N 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.1N 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.2N 85.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.0N 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.3N 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 85.8E.
03DEC21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 532
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 030000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z
AND 040300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPRSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 020230).
//
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