Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BATSIRAI-22
in Madagascar

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 081500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 220208132009
2022020812 08S BATSIRAI 026 01 175 15 SATL 025
T000 283S 0418E 035 R034 155 NE QD 205 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 314S 0422E 035 R034 250 NE QD 270 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP 000HR EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 026
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 28.3S 41.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.3S 41.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 31.4S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 29.1S 41.9E.
08FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
376 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z
IS 12 FEET.
//
0822012318 83S 883E 20
0822012400 88S 890E 20
0822012406 93S 896E 20
0822012412 98S 898E 20
0822012418 103S 901E 25
0822012500 110S 904E 25
0822012506 115S 907E 20
0822012512 122S 909E 20
0822012518 132S 906E 20
0822012600 142S 896E 25
0822012606 144S 881E 30
0822012612 150S 866E 30
0822012618 157S 852E 30
0822012700 164S 837E 35
0822012706 169S 819E 45
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012806 183S 747E 45
0822012812 183S 734E 45
0822012818 183S 724E 50
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020500 199S 513E 100
0822020500 199S 513E 100
0822020500 199S 513E 100
0822020506 204S 505E 100
0822020506 204S 505E 100
0822020506 204S 505E 100
0822020512 207S 493E 100
0822020512 207S 493E 100
0822020512 207S 493E 100
0822020518 210S 483E 100
0822020518 210S 483E 100
0822020518 210S 483E 100
0822020600 213S 469E 60
0822020600 213S 469E 60
0822020606 222S 452E 55
0822020606 222S 452E 55
0822020612 228S 444E 50
0822020612 228S 444E 50
0822020618 231S 433E 40
0822020700 231S 422E 40
0822020706 237S 420E 40
0822020712 246S 418E 40
0822020718 256S 416E 50
0822020800 262S 417E 50
0822020800 262S 417E 50
0822020806 268S 417E 40
0822020812 283S 418E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 28.3S 41.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.3S 41.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 31.4S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 29.1S 41.9E.
08FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
376 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE BROAD AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BECOME
SHEARED 170 NM FROM THE LLC CENTER WHERE THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC BATSIRAI HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 081215
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 054/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 08/02/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-BATSIRAI) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.5 S / 42.1 E
(TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 310 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 200
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 320 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 330 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/09 AT 00 UTC:
31.0 S / 42.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 NM SE: 330 NM SW: 235 NM NW: 165 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 90 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/09 AT 12 UTC:
33.7 S / 43.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 320 NM SE: 330 NM SW: 245 NM NW: 185 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 105 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NO MSG EXP.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080641
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 53/2/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.7 S / 42.3 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 665 SO: 445 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 425 SO: 350 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/02/2022 18 UTC: 29.3 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 650 SO: 370 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SO: 250 NO: 165

24H: 09/02/2022 06 UTC: 32.0 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 575 SO: 360 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SO: 270 NO: 175

36H: 09/02/2022 18 UTC: 34.7 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 545 SO: 345 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 215 NO: 195

48H: 10/02/2022 06 UTC: 36.5 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 335 SO: 215 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 185 SO: 120 NO: 215

60H: 10/02/2022 18 UTC: 39.0 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 295 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SO: 120 NO: 0

72H: 11/02/2022 06 UTC: 43.8 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 305 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 140 SO: 85 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=/

BATSIRAI MAINTIENT UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE, AVEC UN CENTRE DE
BASSES COUCHES EXPOSE LOIN AU NORD DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE
PRINCIPALE, EN NETTE AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEPUIS LE DERNIER RESEAU. LES
DERNIERES ANALYSES DU CIMSS FONT ETAT D'UN CISAILLEMENT PROFOND DE
DECTEUR NORD-OUEST, DE L'ORDRE DE 20/25 KT ET D'UN CISAILLEMENT DE
MOYENNE TROPO DU MEME ORDRE DE GRANDEUR. DU FAIT DE LA DISPARITION
PROGRESSIVE DE LA CONVECTION DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD DU SYSTEME,
L'ANALYSE DVORAK EST RENDUE DELICATE. LES DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS
OBJECTIVES DE L'INTENSITE PENCHENT POUR DU 35KT EN MOYENNE.
L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST TOUTEFOIS PORTEE A 40KT, COMPTE TENU DES
DONNEES FOURNIES PAR LA PASSE HY-2C DE 0130Z PRESENTANT DU 40KT
MAXIMUM DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

BATSIRAI POURSUIT SA DESCENTE EN DIRECTION DU SUD VERS LA FAIBLESSE
DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. SON DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT COMMENCER A
S'ACCA LA RER AVEC LA REMONTEE AUJOURD'HUI DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE
AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME ET L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES PAR LE SUD-OUEST. BATSIRAI DEVRAIT ACCELERER VERS LE
SUD-SUD-OUEST DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS PUIS LE SUD-EST EN SOIREE.
BATSIRAI DEVRAIT FINALEMENT DISPARAITRE EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE SEMAINE
AU SEIN D'UN VASTE THALWEG DE SURFACE EN DIRECTION DES TERRES
AUSTRALES.

BATSARAI DEVRAIT BENEFICIER ENCORE QUELQUES HEURES D'UN POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE SUFFISANT. TOUTEFOIS LE SYSTEME NE DEVRAIT PLUS
S'INTENSIFIER EN RAISON D'UN CISAILLEMENT PROFOND PERSISTANT DE
SECTEUR NORD, DEVENANT PLUS IMPORTANT A COURT TERME, CONTRIBUANT A
APPORTER DE L'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ET AINSI LIMITER
FORTEMENT LA CONVECTION PRES DU CENTRE. CE SOIR, AVEC LA REMONTEE DU
THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET LA BAISSE SIGNIFICATIVE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE,
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PERDRE CETTE FOIS-CI DEFINITIVEMENT SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES.

LE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE PLUS DE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080641
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 53/2/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/08 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.7 S / 42.3 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 665 SW: 445 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 425 SW: 350 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/08 18 UTC: 29.3 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 650 SW: 370 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 165

24H: 2022/02/09 06 UTC: 32.0 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 575 SW: 360 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 175

36H: 2022/02/09 18 UTC: 34.7 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 545 SW: 345 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 215 NW: 195

48H: 2022/02/10 06 UTC: 36.5 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 335 SW: 215 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 215

60H: 2022/02/10 18 UTC: 39.0 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 295 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 0

72H: 2022/02/11 06 UTC: 43.8 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 545 SE: 305 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

BATSIRAI IS MAINTAINING A SHEARED PATTERN, WITH A LOW LEVEL CENTER
EXPOSED FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WHICH IS CLEARLY
WEAKENING SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. THE LAST CIMSS ANALYSES DEPICT A
DEEP NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR, OF THE ORDER OF 20/25 KT AND A MID-TROPO
WINDSHEAR OF THE SAME ORDER OF MAGNITUDE. DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE
FADING OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS IS MADE TRICKY. THE LAST OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OF THE
INTENSITY LEAN TOWARDS 35KT ON AVERAGE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
HOWEVER RAISED TO 40KT, GIVEN THE 0130Z HY-2C SWATH SHOWING MAXIMUM
40KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

BATSIRAI IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD DESCENT TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD START TO ACCELERATE WITH THE
DRIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TODAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE ARRIVAL OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BATSIRAI
SHOULD ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD AT FIRST THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD
TONIGHT. BATSIRAI SHOULD FINALLY DISAPPEAR IN THE SECOND PART OF THE
WEEK WITHIN A LARGE SURFACE TROUGH SOUTHWARDS.

BATSARAI SHOULD BENEFIT FROM A FEW MORE HOURS OF SUFFICIENT OCEANIC
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT INTENSIFY ANY MORE BECAUSE
OF A PERSISTENT DEEP NORTHERLY SHEAR, BECOMING MORE IMPORTANT IN THE
SHORT TERM, CONTRIBUTING TO BRING DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE
AND THUS STRONGLY LIMITING THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. TONIGHT,
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH RISING AND THE SIGNIFICANT DECREASE OF THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD DEFINITIVELY LOSE ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.

THE SYSTEM DOES NOT PRESENT ANY MORE THREAT FOR THE INHABITED LANDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 080620
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 053/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 08/02/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.7 S / 42.3 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 250 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/08 AT 18 UTC:
29.3 S / 42.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 235 NM SE: 350 NM SW: 200 NM NW: 160 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 90 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/09 AT 06 UTC:
32.0 S / 42.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 NM SE: 310 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 170 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 95 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 080300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 220208021248
2022020800 08S BATSIRAI 025 01 180 12 SATL 040
T000 268S 0416E 050 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 225 SE QD 115 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 288S 0417E 045 R034 160 NE QD 270 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 313S 0420E 040 R034 180 NE QD 260 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 26.8S 41.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S 41.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 28.8S 41.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 31.3S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 27.3S 41.6E.
08FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
286 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081500Z.
//
0822012318 83S 883E 20
0822012400 88S 890E 20
0822012406 93S 896E 20
0822012412 98S 898E 20
0822012418 103S 901E 25
0822012500 110S 904E 25
0822012506 115S 907E 20
0822012512 122S 909E 20
0822012518 132S 906E 20
0822012600 142S 896E 25
0822012606 144S 881E 30
0822012612 150S 866E 30
0822012618 157S 852E 30
0822012700 164S 837E 35
0822012706 169S 819E 45
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012806 183S 747E 45
0822012812 183S 734E 45
0822012818 183S 724E 50
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020500 199S 513E 100
0822020500 199S 513E 100
0822020500 199S 513E 100
0822020506 204S 505E 100
0822020506 204S 505E 100
0822020506 204S 505E 100
0822020512 207S 493E 100
0822020512 207S 493E 100
0822020512 207S 493E 100
0822020518 210S 483E 100
0822020518 210S 483E 100
0822020518 210S 483E 100
0822020600 213S 469E 60
0822020600 213S 469E 60
0822020606 222S 452E 55
0822020606 222S 452E 55
0822020612 228S 444E 50
0822020612 228S 444E 50
0822020618 231S 433E 40
0822020700 231S 422E 40
0822020706 237S 420E 40
0822020712 246S 418E 40
0822020718 256S 416E 45
0822020800 268S 416E 50
0822020800 268S 416E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 26.8S 41.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8S 41.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 28.8S 41.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 31.3S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 27.3S 41.6E.
08FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
286 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081500Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 080041
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 52/2/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 08/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.8 S / 41.3 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 665 SO: 445 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 425 SO: 350 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/02/2022 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 500 SO: 380 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SO: 270 NO: 185

24H: 09/02/2022 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 630 SO: 435 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 305 SO: 295 NO: 175

36H: 09/02/2022 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 600 SO: 405 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 305 SO: 295 NO: 165

48H: 10/02/2022 00 UTC: 35.3 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 415 SO: 240 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SO: 140 NO: 215

60H: 10/02/2022 12 UTC: 37.7 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 240 SO: 175 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 130

72H: 11/02/2022 00 UTC: 42.5 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 240 SO: 130 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 175 SO: 100 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=2.0

BATSIRAI A UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE AVEC UNE CONVECTION FLUCTUANTE
REJETEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD DU SYSTEME SOUS L'EFFET D'UN
CISAILLEMENT PROFOND DE NORD-OUEST MODERE MAIS EN HAUSSE (15 KT A 18Z
PUIS VERS 20 KT A 21Z SELON LE CIMSS). UNE PASS SMAP HIER SOIR VERS
15Z MONTRE DES VENTS A 50 KT. LES PASS ASCAT-B ET ASCAT-C VERS
18Z-19Z MONTRENT DES VENTS A 40-45 KT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST,
SUGGERANT QUE LES VENTS SONT PLUS FORTS QUE PRECEDEMMENT ESTIMES. LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE AYANT EU TENDANCE A PLAFONNER OU A LEGEREMENT
SE DETERIORER DPEUIS, L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE A 00Z EST LAISSEE A 45 KT
PAR INERTIE.

LES DONNEES ASCAT MONTRENT EGALEMENT UN CENTRE TRES ALLONGEE. CETTE
DEFORMATION DE LA CIRCULATION SEMBLE LIEE AU RECENT PASSAGE SUR TERRE
CONJUGUE A L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT. L'EXTENSION VERTICALE DU COEUR
CHAUD SEMBLE ENCORE SUFFISANTE, D'APRES LES DERNIERS PROFILS AMSU
D'ANOMALIE DE TEMPERATURE, POUR ENCORE ATTRIBUER DES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES A CE SYSTEME.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE : BATSIRAI A OPERE SA
DESCENTE EN DIRECTION DU SUD VERS LA FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. SON DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT RESTER CEPENDANT RELATIVEMENT
LENT DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS EN RAISON DE FLUX CONTRADICTOIRES ENTRE
LES DEUX DORSALES SUBTROPICALES A L'OUEST ET AU SUD-EST. AVEC LA
REMONTEE AUJOURD'HUI DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU NORD-EST DU
SYSTEME ET L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR LE
SUD-OUEST, BATSIRAI DEVRAIT ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST PUIS LE
SUD-EST. BATSIRAI DEVRAIT FINALEMENT DISPARAITRE EN DEUXIEME PARTIE
DE SEMAINE AU SEIN D'UN VASTE THALWEG DE SURFACE.

MALGRE UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ENCORE SUFFISANT AUJOURD'HUI, BATSIRAI
NE DEVRAIT PAS ALLER AU-DELA DE L'INTENSITE ACTUELLE. LE CISAILLEMENT
DE SECTEUR NORD, COMBINE A LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE, DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE LIMITER LA CONVECTION PROFONDE A
PROXIMITE DU CENTRE. A PARTIR DE CE SOIR, AVEC LA REMONTEE DU THALWEG
D'ALTITUDE ET LA BAISSE RAPIDE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT PERDRE CETTE FOIS-CI DEFINITIVEMENT SES CARACTERISTIQUES
TROPICALES. AU SUD DE 30S NOTAMMENT, LES SST DEVRAIENT DESCENDRE SOUS
LES 23C.

IL N'Y A PLUS D'IMPACT SIGNIFICATIF A ATTENDRE SUR MADAGASCAR.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 080041
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 52/2/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8 S / 41.3 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 665 SW: 445 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 425 SW: 350 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/08 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 500 SW: 380 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 270 NW: 185

24H: 2022/02/09 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 630 SW: 435 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 305 SW: 295 NW: 175

36H: 2022/02/09 12 UTC: 33.2 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 600 SW: 405 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 305 SW: 295 NW: 165

48H: 2022/02/10 00 UTC: 35.3 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 415 SW: 240 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 230 SW: 140 NW: 215

60H: 2022/02/10 12 UTC: 37.7 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 130

72H: 2022/02/11 00 UTC: 42.5 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 240 SW: 130 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 175 SW: 100 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.0

BATSIRAI HAS A SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN WITH FLUCTUATING DEEP CONVECTION
REJECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM UNDER THE EFFECT OF
A MODERATE BUT INCREASING DEEP NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR (15 KT AT 18Z THEN
AROUND 20 KT AT 21Z ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS). A SMAP PASS YESTERDAY
EVENING AROUND 15Z SHOWS WINDS AT 50 KT. THE ASCAT-B AND ASCAT-C
PASSES AROUND 18Z-19Z SHOW WINDS AT 40-45 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT, SUGGESTING THAT THE WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED. SINCE THE CLOUD PATTERN TENDED TO LEVEL OFF OR DETERIORATE
SLIGHTLY, THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY AT 00Z IS LEFT AT 45 KT BY INERTIA.

THE ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOW A VERY ELONGATED CENTER. THIS DEFORMATION OF
THE CIRCULATION SEEMS TO BE RELATED TO THE RECENT PASSAGE OVER LAND
COMBINED WITH THE EFFECT OF SHEAR. THE VERTICAL EXTENSION OF THE WARM
CORE STILL SEEMS TO BE SUFFICIENT, ACCORDING TO THE LAST AMSU
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PROFILES, TO STILL ATTRIBUTE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS TO THIS SYSTEM.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST REASONING : BATSIRAI IS NOW
MOVING SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
HOWEVER, ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY SLOW AT FIRST BECAUSE
OF CONTRADICTORY FLOWS BETWEEN THE TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES TO THE WEST
AND SOUTHEAST. TODAY, AS THE EASTERLY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BATSIRAI SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND THEN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. BATSIRAI SHOULD
FINALLY DISAPPEAR IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK WITHIN A LARGE
SURFACE TROUGH.

IN SPITE OF A STILL SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL TODAY, BATSIRAI
SHOULD NOT GO BEYOND THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR,
COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE,
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. FROM THIS
EVENING, WITH THE UPWELLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE RAPID
DECREASE OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD DEFINITIVELY
LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THIS TIME. SOUTH OF 30S IN
PARTICULAR, THE SST SHOULD DROP BELOW 23C.

THERE IS NO MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO EXPECT ON MADAGASCAR.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 080013
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 08/02/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 052/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 08/02/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.8 S / 41.3 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER UP TO 280 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO MORE THAN 400 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/08 AT 12 UTC:
28.2 S / 41.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 210 NM SE: 270 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 170 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 100 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/09 AT 00 UTC:
30.4 S / 42.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 265 NM SE: 340 NM SW: 235 NM NW: 165 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 95 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
REMOTE WINDS MEASUREMENTS BY SATELLITES SUGGEST STRONGER WINDS THAN
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071836
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 51/2/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 07/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.3 S / 41.8 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUARANTE UN DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 991 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 665 SO: 445 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 465 SO: 350 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/02/2022 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 620 SO: 465 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 285 SO: 325 NO: 185

24H: 08/02/2022 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 640 SO: 455 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SO: 270 NO: 185

36H: 09/02/2022 06 UTC: 31.7 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 610 SO: 390 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SO: 285 NO: 185

48H: 09/02/2022 18 UTC: 34.7 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 530 SO: 370 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 240 NO: 205

60H: 10/02/2022 06 UTC: 35.9 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 435 SO: 260 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SO: 155 NO: 205

72H: 10/02/2022 18 UTC: 38.4 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 400 SO: 195 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SO: 140 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=2.0

L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE INITIEE PEU DE TEMPS AVANT LE DERNIER BULLETIN,
S'EST MAINTENUE AVEC DES FLUCTUATIONS MAIS EGALEMENT EN PRESENTANT
DES SIGNES DE COURBURES. COMPAREE A IL Y A 24H, LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE EST EN AMELIORATION. DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT MODEREMENT
CISAILLE (14 KT DE NORD-OUEST D'APRES LE CIMSS), LE SYSTEME NE SEMBLE
PAS ENCORE SUFFISAMMENT INTERAGIR AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL POUR PERDRE
SES CARACTERITIQUES TROPICALES. EN CONSEQUENCE, LE SYSTEME EST
RECLASSE TEMPETE TROPICALE BATSIRAI. SON CENTRE RESTE TOUTEFOIS ASSEZ
MAL DEFINI AU VUE DE L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE : BATSIRAI A AMORCE SON
ACCELERATION EN DIRECTION DU SUD EN DIRECTION DE LA FAIBLESSE DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. SON DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT RESTER CEPENDANT
RELATIVEMENT LENT DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS EN RAISON DE FLUX
CONTRADICTOIRES ENTRE LES DEUX DORSALES SUBTROPICALES A L'OUEST ET AU
SUD-EST. A PARTIR DE MARDI SOIR AVEC LA REMONTEE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME ET L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR LE SUD-OUEST, BATSIRAI DEVRAIT ACCELERER VERS
LE SUD-EST. BATSIRAI DEVRAIT FINALEMENT DISPARAITRE EN DEUXIEME
PARTIE DE SEMAINE AU SEIN D'UN VASTE THALWEG DE SURFACE.

MALGRE UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ENCORE SUFFISANT A COURTE ECHEANCE, LES
CHANCES D'UNE NOUVELLE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION SE REDUISENT. LE
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD, COMBINE A LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE LIMITER LA CONVECTION
PROFONDE A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE. UN CREUSEMENT A LA MARGE EST ENCORE
POSSIBLE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN SOIR, AVEC LA
REMONTEE DU THALWEG D'ALTITUDE ET LA BAISSE RAPIDE DU POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PERDRE CETTE FOIS-CI DEFINITIVEMENT SES
CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. AU SUD DE 30S NOTAMMENT, LES SST
DEVRAIENT DESCENDRE SOUS LES 23C.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS SUR MADAGASCAR, DES PLUIES ADDITIONNELS
ATTEIGNANT PONTUELLEMENT LES 50 MM DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H SONT
ATTENDUES VERS MOROMBE - TULEAR. LES RAFALES DE VENTS DEVRAIENT
RESTER SOUS LES 100 KM/H. IL N'Y A PLUS D'INFLUENCE SIGNIFICATIVE A
ATTENDRE AU-DELA DE 24H.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071836
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 51/2/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.3 S / 41.8 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 665 SW: 445 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 465 SW: 350 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/08 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 620 SW: 465 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 285 SW: 325 NW: 185

24H: 2022/02/08 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 640 SW: 455 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 185

36H: 2022/02/09 06 UTC: 31.7 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 610 SW: 390 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 185

48H: 2022/02/09 18 UTC: 34.7 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 530 SW: 370 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 205

60H: 2022/02/10 06 UTC: 35.9 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 435 SW: 260 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 205

72H: 2022/02/10 18 UTC: 38.4 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 400 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 140 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.0

THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INITIATED SHORTLY BEFORE THE LAST BULLETIN,
HAS CONTINUED WITH FLUCTUATIONS BUT ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF CURVATURE.
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, THE CLOUD PATTERN IS IMPROVING. IN A
MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT (14 KT FROM NORTHWEST ACCORDING TO
CIMSS), THE SYSTEM DOES NOT SEEM TO INTERACT YET ENOUGH WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. CONSEQUENTLY,
THE SYSTEM IS RECLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM BATSIRAI. ITS CENTER
REMAINS HOWEVER RATHER POORLY DEFINED FROM MICROWAVE IMAGERY.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST REASONING : BATSIRAI HAS STARTED
ITS ACCELERATION SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. HOWEVER, ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY SLOW AT FIRST
BECAUSE OF CONTRADICTORY FLOWS BETWEEN THE TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES TO
THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST. FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARDS, WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RISING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
ARRIVAL OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BATSIRAI SHOULD
ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. BATSIRAI SHOULD FINALLY DISAPPEAR
IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK WITHIN A LARGE SURFACE TROUGH.

IN SPITE OF A STILL SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM,
THE CHANCES OF A NEW INTENSIFICATION TREND ARE REDUCING. THE
NORTHERLY SHEAR, COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE, SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER. A DEEPENING AT THE MARGIN IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. FROM TOMORROW EVENING, WITH THE UPWELLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND THE RAPID DECREASE OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
DEFINITIVELY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THIS TIME. SOUTH OF
30S IN PARTICULAR, THE SST SHOULD DROP BELOW 23C.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR, ADDITIONAL RAINS REACHING UP TO 50
MM IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE EXPECTED AROUND MOROMBE - TULEAR. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 100 KM/H. THERE IS NO MORE SIGNIFICANT
INFLUENCE TO EXPECT BEYOND 24 HOURS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 071808
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 051/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 07/02/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.3 S / 41.8 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
190 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 120
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 240 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/08 AT 06 UTC:
26.6 S / 41.6 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 NM SE: 335 NM SW: 250 NM NW: 170 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 100 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/08 AT 18 UTC:
28.6 S / 41.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 NM SE: 345 NM SW: 245 NM NW: 170 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 100 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPED AGAIN NEAR THE CENTER, JUSTIFYING A
RECLASSIFICATION AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 071500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 220207130744
2022020712 08S BATSIRAI 024 01 190 09 SATL 045
T000 246S 0418E 040 R034 105 NE QD 210 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 260S 0416E 045 R034 160 NE QD 270 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 278S 0416E 045 R034 180 NE QD 260 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 304S 0421E 040 R034 210 NE QD 240 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 335S 0434E 040 R034 210 NE QD 230 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 24.6S 41.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 41.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 26.0S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 27.8S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 30.4S 42.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 33.5S 43.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9S 41.7E.
07FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
169 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 071200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z.//
0822012318 83S 883E 20
0822012400 88S 890E 20
0822012406 93S 896E 20
0822012412 98S 898E 20
0822012418 103S 901E 25
0822012500 110S 904E 25
0822012506 115S 907E 20
0822012512 122S 909E 20
0822012518 132S 906E 20
0822012600 142S 896E 25
0822012606 144S 881E 30
0822012612 150S 866E 30
0822012618 157S 852E 30
0822012700 164S 837E 35
0822012706 169S 819E 45
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012806 183S 747E 45
0822012812 183S 734E 45
0822012818 183S 724E 50
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020500 199S 513E 100
0822020500 199S 513E 100
0822020500 199S 513E 100
0822020506 204S 505E 100
0822020506 204S 505E 100
0822020506 204S 505E 100
0822020512 207S 493E 100
0822020512 207S 493E 100
0822020512 207S 493E 100
0822020518 210S 483E 100
0822020518 210S 483E 100
0822020518 210S 483E 100
0822020600 213S 469E 60
0822020600 213S 469E 60
0822020606 222S 452E 55
0822020606 222S 452E 55
0822020612 228S 444E 50
0822020612 228S 444E 50
0822020618 231S 433E 40
0822020700 231S 422E 40
0822020706 237S 420E 40
0822020712 246S 418E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 24.6S 41.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 41.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 26.0S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 27.8S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 30.4S 42.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 33.5S 43.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9S 41.7E.
07FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
169 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 071200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 071210
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 050/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 07/02/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-BATSIRAI) 991 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.8 S / 41.7 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 350 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/08 AT 00 UTC:
26.0 S / 41.0 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 265 NM SW: 235 NM NW: 165 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 90 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/08 AT 12 UTC:
27.7 S / 41.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 190 NM SE: 240 NM SW: 215 NM NW: 180 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 100 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070736
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 49/2/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.6 S / 42.2 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SO: 405 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 335 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/02/2022 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SO: 380 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SO: 195 NO: 95

24H: 08/02/2022 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 370 SO: 380 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SO: 205 NO: 95

36H: 08/02/2022 18 UTC: 29.0 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 370 SO: 380 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 295 SO: 215 NO: 95

48H: 09/02/2022 06 UTC: 31.7 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 370 SO: 380 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SO: 220 NO: 95

60H: 09/02/2022 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 380 SO: 380 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SO: 230 NO: 95

72H: 10/02/2022 06 UTC: 37.3 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 380 SO: 380 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SO: 250 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST RESTEE
ABSENTE DU COEUR DE LA CIRCULATION, SE CONCENTRANT DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST, LOIN DU CENTRE. LA PASSE ASCAT PARTIELLE DE
0617Z NE MONTRE QUE DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 25/30KT DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE OUEST A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE. PLUS AU SUD DANS LE GRADIENT
DE PRESSION, LES VENTS ATTEIGNENT 35KT. EN L'ABSENCE DE CONVECTION,
LE SYSTEME EST CLASSE DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE : AUJOURD'HUI, BATSIRAI
DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE PROGRESSIF EN DIRECTION DU SUD EN RAISON DE
LA FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE SITUANT AU SUD. SON
DEPLACEMENT DEVRAIT RESTER LENT DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS EN RAISON DE
FLUX CONTRADICTOIRES ENTRE LES DEUX DORSALES SUBTROPICALES A L'OUEST
ET AU SUD-EST. A PARTIR DE MARDI SOIR AVEC LA REMONTEE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME ET L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR LE SUD-OUEST, BATSIRAI DEVRAIT ACCELERER VERS
LE SUD-EST. BATSIRAI DEVRAIT DISPARAITRE EN DEUXIEME PARTIE DE
SEMAINE AU SEIN D'UN VASTE THALWEG DE SURFACE.

MALGRE UN POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ENCORE SUFFISANT A COURTE ECHEANCE, LES
CHANCES D'UNE NOUVELLE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION SE REDUISENT. LE
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR NORD, COMBINE A LA PRESENCE D'AIR SEC EN
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE LIMITER LA CONVECTION
PROFONDE A PROXIMITE DU CENTRE. UN CREUSEMENT A LA MARGE AVEC LE
RENFORCEMENT DU GRADIENT DE PRESSION EST ENCORE POSSIBLE DANS LES
PROCHAINES HEURES. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, AVEC LA REMONTEE DU THALWEG
D'ALTITUDE ET LA BAISSE RAPIDE DU POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES TROPICALES. AU SUD DE 30S
NOTAMMENT, LES SST DEVRAIENT DESCENDRE SOUS LES 23C.

EN TERMES D'IMPACTS SUR MADAGASCAR, AVEC L'A LOIGNEMENT PROGRESSIF DU
SYSTEME, LE VENT ET LE RISQUE DE FORTES PLUIES LIES A BATSIRAI SUR
LA ZONE ALLANT DE MOROMBE AU CAP SAINTE-MARIE, DEVRAIENT FAIBLIR
DEMAIN ET DEFINITIVEMENT MERCREDI MATIN.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070736
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 49/2/20212022
1.A REMNANT LOW 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6 S / 42.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SW: 405 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 335 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/07 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 370 SW: 380 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 195 NW: 95

24H: 2022/02/08 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 370 SW: 380 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 95

36H: 2022/02/08 18 UTC: 29.0 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 370 SW: 380 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 295 SW: 215 NW: 95

48H: 2022/02/09 06 UTC: 31.7 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 370 SW: 380 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SW: 220 NW: 95

60H: 2022/02/09 18 UTC: 35.0 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 380 SW: 380 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 95

72H: 2022/02/10 06 UTC: 37.3 S / 46.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 380 SW: 380 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 335 SW: 250 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINED ABSENT FROM
THE CIRCULATION INNER CORE, STAYING IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE, FAR
FROM THE CENTER. THE 0617Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS ONLY WINDS IN
THE ORDER OF 25/30KT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE NEAR THE CENTER.
FURTHER SOUTH IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, WINDS REACH 35KT. IN THE
ABSENCE OF CONVECTION, THE SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A REMNANT LOW.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST: TODAY, BATSIRAI SHOULD START A
PROGRESSIVE TURN SOUTHWARD DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED AT SOUTH. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD REMAIN SLOW AT FIRST BECAUSE OF
CONTRADICTORY FLOWS BETWEEN THE TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES TO THE WEST
AND SOUTHEAST. FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARDS, WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BATSIRAI SHOULD ACCELERATE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. BATSIRAI SHOULD DISAPPEAR LATER THIS WEEK
WITHIN A LARGE SURFACE TROUGH.

DESPITE A STILL SUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL AT SHORT RANGE, THE
CHANCES FOR A NEW DEVELOPMENT PHASE ARE DECAYING. THE NORTHERLY
SHEAR, COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE,
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. A SHALLOW
DEEPENING WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT HOURS. FROM TOMORROW, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN
UPPER TROUGH AND THE RAPID DECREASE OF THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. SOUTH OF 30S IN
PARTICULAR, THE SST SHOULD DROP BELOW 23C.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR, WITH THE PROGRESSIVE EVACUATION OF
THE SYSTEM, THE WIND AND THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINS RELATED TO BATSIRAI
IN THE AREA FROM MOROMBE TO CAP SAINTE-MARIE, SHOULD WEAKEN TOMORROW
AND DEFINITIVELY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 070636
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 049/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 07/02/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: REMNANT LOW 2 (BATSIRAI) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6 S / 42.2 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 300 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
100 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/07 AT 18 UTC:
25.0 S / 41.3 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, REMNANT LOW
28 KT NE: 160 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 150 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 50 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/08 AT 06 UTC:
26.5 S / 41.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 150 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 50 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 070300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 220207014402
2022020700 08S BATSIRAI 023 02 270 10 SATL 060
T000 231S 0422E 040 R034 000 NE QD 175 SE QD 170 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 239S 0409E 045 R034 110 NE QD 240 SE QD 170 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 253S 0407E 050 R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 260 SE QD 180 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 272S 0408E 050 R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 240 SE QD 170 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 292S 0414E 045 R034 180 NE QD 230 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 345S 0437E 040 R034 180 NE QD 230 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 023
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 23.1S 42.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 42.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.9S 40.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 25.3S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 27.2S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 29.2S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 34.5S 43.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 41.9E.
07FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
123 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z.
//
0822012318 83S 883E 20
0822012400 88S 890E 20
0822012406 93S 896E 20
0822012412 98S 898E 20
0822012418 103S 901E 25
0822012500 110S 904E 25
0822012506 115S 907E 20
0822012512 122S 909E 20
0822012518 132S 906E 20
0822012600 142S 896E 25
0822012606 144S 881E 30
0822012612 150S 866E 30
0822012618 157S 852E 30
0822012700 164S 837E 35
0822012706 169S 819E 45
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012806 183S 747E 45
0822012812 183S 734E 45
0822012818 183S 724E 50
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020500 199S 513E 100
0822020500 199S 513E 100
0822020500 199S 513E 100
0822020506 204S 505E 100
0822020506 204S 505E 100
0822020506 204S 505E 100
0822020512 207S 493E 100
0822020512 207S 493E 100
0822020512 207S 493E 100
0822020518 210S 483E 100
0822020518 210S 483E 100
0822020518 210S 483E 100
0822020600 213S 469E 60
0822020600 213S 469E 60
0822020606 222S 452E 55
0822020606 222S 452E 55
0822020612 228S 444E 50
0822020612 228S 444E 50
0822020618 231S 433E 40
0822020700 231S 422E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 23.1S 42.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 42.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.9S 40.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 25.3S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 27.2S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 29.2S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 34.5S 43.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 41.9E.
07FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
123 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 070000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CLIFF) FINAL WARNING (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATE.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070019
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 48/2/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 07/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.4 S / 42.3 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE DEUX DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 555 SO: 555 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SO: 260 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1002 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/02/2022 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 575 SO: 530 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 390 SO: 285 NO: 120

24H: 08/02/2022 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 595 SO: 535 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 405 SO: 295 NO: 120

36H: 08/02/2022 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 600 SO: 545 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 435 SO: 315 NO: 120

48H: 09/02/2022 00 UTC: 29.6 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 620 SO: 555 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 455 SO: 335 NO: 120

60H: 09/02/2022 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 640 SO: 575 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 470 SO: 350 NO: 120

72H: 10/02/2022 00 UTC: 35.4 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 655 SO: 585 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 490 SO: 360 NO: 120

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/02/2022 00 UTC: 41.2 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 685 SO: 610 NO: 305


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT

AUX COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST RESTEE
BIEN MODESTE. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES DE 2158UTC LAISSENT PENSER A
UNE LOCALISATION DU CENTRE EN LIMITE NORD DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE LA
PLUS NOTABLE. UNE ANALYSE DVORAK EST ENCORE DELICATE A FAIRE BIEN
QU'UN LEGER SIGNAL DE BANDE INCURVEE OU SYSTEME CISAILLE A 2.0+ SERA
ACCEPTABLE. CELA LAISSE DES VALEURS DE VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 30KT,
PROCHES DES 35KT FOURNIS PAR LA DERNIERE PASSE ASCAT DANS LE SECTEUR
SUD, LOIN DU CENTRE. BATSIRAI RESTE DONC EN TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
BIEN QUE SA SIGNATURE CONVECTIVE SOIT MOINDRE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE : AUJOURD'HUI, BATSIRAI
DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE PROGRESSIF EN DIRECTION DU SUD EN RAISON DE
LA FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE SITUANT AU SUD. SUITE A
L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR L'OUEST, BATSIRAI
CONTINUE SON PLONGEON VERS LES LATITUDES SUD DE FACON PLUS FRANCHE
ENCORE A PARTIR DE MARDI. PAR LA SUITE PRIS PAR LE FLUX D'OUEST ET
SUIVANT LE TALWEG, BATSIRAI FINIRA SA VIE DANS UNE TRAJECTOIRE
EST-SUD-EST VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES EN COURS DE TRANSITION
EXTRA-TROPICALE, L'AMENANT A PLUS LONGUES ECHEANCES VERS LES ILES
KERGUELEN.

DE RETOUR SUR MER, DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE DONT LE POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE EST ENCORE SUFFISANT MALGRE LES LATITUDES ASSEZ SUD,
BATSIRAI PRESENTE UNE CIRCULATION LARGE AVEC UNE INTENSITE DE 30/35KT
LE PLACANT AU SEUIL DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE. AVEC UN
CISAILLEMENT DE VENT QUI COMMENCE A AUGMENTER ET UNE CIRCULATION
INITIALE ASSEZ LARGE, LE SYSTEME PEINE A S'INTENSIFIER DE NOUVEAU.
CETTE LARGE CIRCULATION COMBINEE A L'ARRIVEE DE CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEFAVORABLES (D'ABORD AIR SEC PENETRANT PAR LE NORD
PUIS CISAILLEMENT DE VENT) LORS DE SA PLONGEE VERS LES MOYENNES
LATITUDES VONT LIMITER SON INTENSITE AU SEUIL DE TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE. PAR LA SUITE, PLONGEANT VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD,
BATSIRAI DEVRAIT ENTAMER UNE TRANSITION POST-TROPICALE EN MILIEU DE
SEMAINE PUIS TENDRE VERS DES CARACTERISTIQUES EXTRA-TROPICALES PAR
INTERACTION AVEC UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR MADAGASCAR ET LE SUD DU CANAL:
- DES VENTS MOYENS DE L'ORDRE DE 35KT SONT PRESENTS LE LONG DE LA
COTE SUD EN S'ESTOMPANT. CES VENTS SONT AUSSI PRESENTS SUR LA COTE
SUD-OUEST (ENTRE LE CAP SAINTE-MARIE ET LE CAP SAINT-VINCENT)
TOURNANT AU NORD EN COURS DE MATINEE DE LUNDI. CES VENTS SONT
ACCOMPAGNES DE RAFALES PROCHES DES 100 KM/H. ILS PERSISTENT JUSQU'A
MARDI, PUIS FAIBLISSENT.
- AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT DE BATSIRAI, LA MER DU VENT RESTE PRESENTE AU
SUD DU CAP SAINT-VINCENT MAIS LES HAUTEURS FAIBLISSENT RAPIDEMENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070019
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 48/2/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/07 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 42.3 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 555 SW: 555 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/07 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 575 SW: 530 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 390 SW: 285 NW: 120

24H: 2022/02/08 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 595 SW: 535 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 405 SW: 295 NW: 120

36H: 2022/02/08 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 600 SW: 545 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 435 SW: 315 NW: 120

48H: 2022/02/09 00 UTC: 29.6 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 620 SW: 555 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 455 SW: 335 NW: 120

60H: 2022/02/09 12 UTC: 32.6 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 640 SW: 575 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 470 SW: 350 NW: 120

72H: 2022/02/10 00 UTC: 35.4 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 530 SE: 655 SW: 585 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 490 SW: 360 NW: 120

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/11 00 UTC: 41.2 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 685 SW: 610 NW: 305


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINED QUITE
MODEST. MICROWAVE DATA FROM 2158UTC SUGGEST A LOCATION OF THE CENTER
AT THE NORTHERN LIMIT OF THE MOST NOTABLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A
DVORAK ANALYSIS IS STILL DELICATE TO MAKE ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CURVED
BAND SIGNAL OR SHEAR SYSTEM AT 2.0+ WILL BE ACCEPTABLE. THIS LEAVES
WIND VALUES OF THE ORDER OF 30KT, CLOSE TO THE 35KT PROVIDED BY THE
LAST ASCAT PASS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR, FAR FROM THE CENTER. BATSIRAI
REMAINS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM ALTHOUGH ITS CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE
IS LESS.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK : TODAY, BATSIRAI SHOULD START A
PROGRESSIVE TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SOUTH. FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST, BATSIRAI WILL CONTINUE ITS PLUNGE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES EVEN MORE STRONGLY FROM TUESDAY. THEN
CAUGHT BY THE WESTERLY FLOW AND FOLLOWING THE TROUGH, BATSIRAI WILL
END ITS LIFE IN AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES IN
THE COURSE OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, TAKING IT TO THE KERGUELEN
ISLANDS AT LONGER TIME SCALES.

BACK ON THE SEA, IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WHERE THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL IS STILL SUFFICIENT IN SPITE OF THE RATHER SOUTHERN
LATITUDES, BATSIRAI PRESENTS A WIDE CIRCULATION WITH AN INTENSITY OF
30/35KT PLACING IT AT THE THRESHOLD OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.
WITH WIND SHEAR STARTING TO INCREASE AND A FAIRLY BROAD INITIAL
CIRCULATION, THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY AGAIN. THIS LARGE
CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS (FIRST DRY AIR PENETRATING FROM THE NORTH AND THEN WIND
SHEAR) DURING ITS PLUNGE TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES WILL LIMIT ITS
INTENSITY TO THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM THRESHOLD. THEN, MOVING TO
SOUTHERN LATITUDES, BATSIRAI SHOULD START A POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THEN TEND TOWARDS EXTRA-TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS BY INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR AND THE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL:
- AVERAGE WINDS IN THE ORDER OF 35KT ARE PRESENT ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST WHILE FADING. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO PRESENT ON THE SOUTHWEST
COAST (BETWEEN CAPE SAINT-MARIE AND CAPE SAINT-VINCENT) TURNING NORTH
DURING THE MORNING OF MONDAY. THESE WINDS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS
CLOSE TO 100 KM/H. THEY PERSIST UNTIL TUESDAY, THEN WEAKEN.
- WITH THE DISPLACEMENT OF BATSIRAI, THE WIND SEA REMAINS PRESENT
SOUTH OF CAPE SAINT-VINCENT BUT THE HEIGHTS WEAKEN RAPIDLY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 070006
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/02/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 048/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 07/02/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 42.3 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 160
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/07 AT 12 UTC:
24.5 S / 41.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 245 NM SE: 310 NM SW: 285 NM NW: 165 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 65 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/08 AT 00 UTC:
25.8 S / 41.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 NM SE: 320 NM SW: 290 NM NW: 165 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 220 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 65 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061842
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 47/2/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 06/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.2 S / 43.3 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE TROIS DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 988 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 555 SO: 555 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SO: 260 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/02/2022 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 465 SO: 325 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 215

24H: 07/02/2022 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 500 SO: 390 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 315 SO: 230 NO: 230

36H: 08/02/2022 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 545 SO: 445 NO: 415
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 350 SO: 270 NO: 250

48H: 08/02/2022 18 UTC: 28.1 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 545 SO: 360 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 350 SO: 215 NO: 220

60H: 09/02/2022 06 UTC: 30.8 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 535 SO: 380 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SO: 240 NO: 205

72H: 09/02/2022 18 UTC: 33.3 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 520 SO: 400 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 350 SO: 285 NO: 175

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2022 18 UTC: 36.8 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 260


2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=NEANT

BATSIRAI EST RESSORTI EN MER PROCHE DE LA VILLE DE TULEAR VERS 16UTC,
SI ON SE REFERE AUX IMAGES VISIBLES ET INFRAROUGES. CES DONNEES SONT
VALIDEES PAR LA PASSAGE MICRO-ONDE DE 1610UTC. AUX COURS DES
DERNIERES 6 HEURES, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE EST RESTEE MODEREE ET
PRINCIPALEMENT PRESENTE SUR TERRE. CELA NE PERMET PAS DE REPRENDRE
L'ANALYSE DVORAK. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1811UTC PERMET D'ESTIMER DES
VENTS DE 30 A 35KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD, LE LONG DES COTES. ON
CLASSE DONC BATSIRAI EN TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE LORS DE SA
RESSORTIE EN MER, AVEC UNE CIRCULATION RELATIVEMENT LARGE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE : DE RETOUR EN MER,
BATSIRAI DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE PROGRESSIF EN DIRECTION DU SUD EN
RAISON DE LA FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE SITUANT AU SUD.
SUITE A L'ARRIVEE D'UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR L'OUEST,
BATSIRAI CONTINUE SON PLONGEON VERS LES LATITUDES SUD DE FACON PLUS
FRANCHE ENCORE A PARTIR DE MARDI. PAR LA SUITE PRIS PAR LE FLUX
D'OUEST ET SUIVANT LE TALWEG, BATSIRAI FINIRA SA VIE DANS UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EST-SUD-EST VERS LES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

DE RETOUR SUR MER, DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE DONT LE POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE EST ENCORE SUFFISANT MALGRE LES LATITUDES ASSEZ SUD,
BATSIRAI PRESENTE UNE CIRCULATION ASSEZ LARGE AVEC UNE INTENSITE AU
SEUIL DE TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE. BIEN QUE BENEFICIANT DE BONNES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS, LE SYSTEME A DU
MAL A RESSERER SA CIRCULATION ET PEINE DONC A S'INTENSIFIER DE
NOUVEAU. CETTE LARGE CIRCULATION COMBINEE A L'ARRIVEE DE CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES DEFAVORABLES (D'ABORD AIR SEC PENETRANT PAR LE NORD
PUIS CISAILLEMENT DE VENT) LORS DE SA PLONGEE VERS LES MOYENNES
LATITUDES VONT LIMITER SON INTENSITE AU SEUIL DE TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE. PAR LA SUITE, PLONGEANT VERS LES LATITUDES PLUS SUD,
BATSIRAI DEVRAIT ENTAMER UNE TRANSITION POST-TROPICALE EN MILIEU DE
SEMAINE PAR INTERACTION AVEC UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR MADAGASCAR ET LE SUD DU CANAL:
- LES MAUVAISES CONDITIONS VONT PERDURER SUR UNE GRANDE MOITIE SUD DE
MADAGASCAR.
- DES VENTS MOYENS DE L'ORDRE DE 35KT SE MAINTIENNENT LE LONG DE LA
COTE SUD ET SUD-OUEST (ENTRE LE CAP SAINTE-MARIE ET LE CAP
SAINT-VINCENT). CES VENTS SONT ACCOMPAGNES DE RAFALES PROCHES DES 100
KM/H.
- LA HOULE DE SECTEUR SUD-EST SUR LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR POURSUIT
SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT. AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT DE BATSIRAI, LA MER SE LEVE
SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR, AVEC UNE HOULE ET UNE MER DU VENT
CONJUGUEES DONNANT UNE MER TOTALE DE L'ORDRE DE 5 METRES AU SUD DU
CAP SAINT-VINCENT, POUR LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI. CELLE-CI
FAIBLIT RAPIDEMENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061842
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 47/2/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2 S / 43.3 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 555 SW: 555 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/07 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 465 SW: 325 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 215

24H: 2022/02/07 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 500 SW: 390 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 230

36H: 2022/02/08 06 UTC: 26.4 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 545 SW: 445 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 250

48H: 2022/02/08 18 UTC: 28.1 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 545 SW: 360 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 350 SW: 215 NW: 220

60H: 2022/02/09 06 UTC: 30.8 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 535 SW: 380 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SW: 240 NW: 205

72H: 2022/02/09 18 UTC: 33.3 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 520 SW: 400 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 350 SW: 285 NW: 175

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/10 18 UTC: 36.8 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 260


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

BATSIRAI EMERGED IN THE SEA NEAR THE CITY OF TULEAR AROUND 16UTC, IF
WE REFER TO THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES. THESE DATA ARE VALIDATED
BY THE MICROWAVE PASSAGE OF 1610UTC. DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED MODERATE AND MAINLY PRESENT ON LAND.
THIS DOES NOT ALLOW TO RESUME THE DVORAK ANALYSIS. THE ASCAT SWATH OF
1811UTC ALLOWS TO ESTIMATE WINDS OF 30 TO 35KT IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, ALONG THE COASTS. WE CLASSIFY BATSIRAI AS A MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT GOES OUT TO SEA, WITH A RELATIVELY LARGE
CIRCULATION.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK : BACK AT SEA, BATSIRAI SHOULD START A
PROGRESSIVE TURN SOUTHWARDS DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH FROM THE WEST, BATSIRAI WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN LATITUDES EVEN MORE SHARPLY FROM TUESDAY. THEN CAPTURED BY
THE WESTERLY FLOW AND FOLLOWING THE TROUGH, BATSIRAI WILL END ITS
LIFE IN AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES.

BACK ON THE SEA, IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WHERE THE OCEANIC
POTENTIAL IS STILL SUFFICIENT DESPITE THE RATHER SOUTHERN LATITUDES,
BATSIRAI PRESENTS A RATHER LARGE CIRCULATION WITH AN INTENSITY AT THE
THRESHOLD OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. ALTHOUGH BENEFITING FROM GOOD
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AT FIRST, THE SYSTEM HAS DIFFICULTY TO
TIGHTEN ITS CIRCULATION AND THEREFORE STRUGGLES TO INTENSIFY AGAIN.
THIS LARGE CIRCULATION COMBINED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (FIRST DRY AIR PENETRATING FROM THE NORTH
AND THEN WIND SHEAR) DURING ITS PLUNGE TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES WILL
LIMIT ITS INTENSITY TO THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM THRESHOLD. THEN,
MOVING SOUTHERN, BATSIRAI SHOULD START A POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BY INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR AND THE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL:
- DEGRADED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER A LARGE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MADAGASCAR.
- AVERAGE WINDS OF ABOUT 35KT ARE MAINTAINED ALONG THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST COAST (BETWEEN CAPE SAINTE-MARIE AND CAPE SAINT-VINCENT).
THESE WINDS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS CLOSE TO 100 KM/H.
- THE SOUTHEAST SWELL ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. WITH THE DISPLACEMENT OF BATSIRAI, THE SEA IS RISING ON
SOUTHWESTERN MADAGASCAR, WITH A COMBINED SWELL AND WIND SEA GIVING A
TOTAL SEA OF ABOUT 5 METERS SOUTH OF CAPE SAINT-VINCENT, FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS ONE WEAKENS QUICKLY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 061804
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 047/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 06/02/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI) 988 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2 S / 43.3 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 320 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
140 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 160
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/07 AT 06 UTC:
23.9 S / 41.6 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 250 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 195 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 115 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/07 AT 18 UTC:
25.1 S / 41.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 270 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 210 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 125 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 061500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 220206131916
2022020612 08S BATSIRAI 022 02 225 10 SATL 045
T000 229S 0444E 050 R050 075 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 239S 0425E 050 R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 247S 0418E 055 R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 220 SE QD 180 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 260S 0415E 055 R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 220 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 276S 0417E 050 R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 323S 0430E 045 R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 22.9S 44.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 44.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.9S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.7S 41.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 26.0S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 27.6S 41.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 32.3S 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 43.9E.
06FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
236 NM EAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND
071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CLIFF) WARNINGS
0822012318 83S 883E 20
0822012400 88S 890E 20
0822012406 93S 896E 20
0822012412 98S 898E 20
0822012418 103S 901E 25
0822012500 110S 904E 25
0822012506 115S 907E 20
0822012512 122S 909E 20
0822012518 132S 906E 20
0822012600 142S 896E 25
0822012606 144S 881E 30
0822012612 150S 866E 30
0822012618 157S 852E 30
0822012700 164S 837E 35
0822012706 169S 819E 45
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012806 183S 747E 45
0822012812 183S 734E 45
0822012818 183S 724E 50
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020500 199S 513E 100
0822020500 199S 513E 100
0822020500 199S 513E 100
0822020506 204S 505E 100
0822020506 204S 505E 100
0822020506 204S 505E 100
0822020512 207S 493E 100
0822020512 207S 493E 100
0822020512 207S 493E 100
0822020518 210S 483E 100
0822020518 210S 483E 100
0822020518 210S 483E 100
0822020600 213S 469E 60
0822020600 213S 469E 60
0822020606 222S 452E 55
0822020606 222S 452E 55
0822020612 229S 444E 50
0822020612 229S 444E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 22.9S 44.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 44.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.9S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.7S 41.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 26.0S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 27.6S 41.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 32.3S 43.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 43.9E.
06FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
236 NM EAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND
071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CLIFF) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 061245
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 46/2/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 06/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.9 S / 44.4 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 13 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 990 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 555 SO: 555 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 390 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/02/2022 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 435 SO: 445 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 120

24H: 07/02/2022 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 370 SO: 445 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 230 SO: 215 NO: 165

36H: 08/02/2022 00 UTC: 25.7 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 500 SO: 445 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SO: 280 NO: 175

48H: 08/02/2022 12 UTC: 27.0 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 510 SO: 425 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SO: 250 NO: 185

60H: 09/02/2022 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 470 SO: 405 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SO: 270 NO: 155

72H: 09/02/2022 12 UTC: 31.5 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 510 SO: 390 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 350 SO: 270 NO: 155

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2022 12 UTC: 34.2 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 220 SO: 260 NO: 325

120H: 11/02/2022 12 UTC: 36.1 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=/

LA DEPRESSION SUR TERRE BATSARAI EST ACTUELLEMENT CENTREE SUR LA
PROVINCE D'ATSIMO-ANDREFANA (MADAGASCAR) ET POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE
EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST A BON RYTHME. COMME LE LAISSE SUGGA RER
L'ASCAT-C PARTIELLE DE 0630Z, LE SYSTEME GENERE ENCORE DU COUP DE
VENT SUR LA FACADE ORIENTALE DE MADAGASCAR. LES EXTENSIONS DE VENT
ONT AINSI PU ETRE REACTUALISA E EN CONSEQUENCE. LES ANIMATIONS
SATELLITES MONTRENT QU'EN S'AFFAIBLISSANT SUR LES TERRES MALGACHES,
L'INFLUENCE DE BATSARAI S'EST ELARGI ET LES BANDES PERIPHERIQUES
S'ENTENDENT SUR UNE LARGE PARTIE SUD DE MADAGASCAR.

LE SYSTEME EST PREVU DE RESSORTIR DANS LE CANAL DE MOZAMBIQUE EN
SOIREE, DANS LA BAIE DE SAINT-AUGUSTIN, PROCHE DE LA VILLE DE TULEAR.
DE RETOUR EN MER, BATSIRAI DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE PROGRESSIF EN
DIRECTION DU SUD PUIS DU SUD-EST EN RAISON DE LA FAIBLESSE DE LA
CEINTURE DES HAUTES GEOPOTENTIELS EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU SUD SUITE
AU RETRAIT PROGRESSIF DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS LE CENTRE DU
BASSIN. BATSIRAI ACCELERERA PLUS FRANCHEMENT ENSUITE EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-EST A PARTIR DE MARDI, SUITE A L'ARRIVEE D'UN THALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES PAR L'OUEST.

DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, APRES UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF
SUITE A SON PASSAGE SUR LES TERRES, LA STRUCTURE ASSEZ LARGE DU
SYSTEME NE PERMETTRA PAS VRAIMENT DE PROFITER DES BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS. RAPIDEMENT EN DA BUT DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE, BATSIRAI DEVRAIT RENCONTRER DES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES DA FAVORABLES LORS DE SA PLONGEE VERS LES MOYENNES
LATITUDES: CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, INJECTANT
PROGRESSIVEMENT DE L'AIR SEC DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD DU SYSTEME,
PUIS POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE INSUFFISANT EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE. PASSE LE
30EME PARALLELE, BATSARAI DEVRAIT ENTAMER UNE TRANSITION
POST-TROPICALE PROBABLE EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PAR INTERACTION AVEC UN
TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR MADAGASCAR ET LE SUD DU CANAL:
- LES MAUVAISES CONDITIONS VONT PERDURER SUR UNE GRANDE MOITIA SUD
DE L'A LE DE MADAGASCAR, ENTRE MAINTIRANO ET LE CAP SAINTE-MARIE,
AVEC DES CUMULS DE PLUIE SUR 24 HEURES DE L'ORDRE DE 200 A 400 MM
SUR LES PLATEAUX DE L'EST, ET DE L'ORDRE DE 100 MM AILLEURS.
- DES VENTS MOYENS DE FORCE TEMPA TE SE MAINTIENNENT LE LONG DE LA
COTE EST, ET SUITE AU DA PLACEMENT DU SYSTA ME, LES VENTS S'A
TABLISSENT ENSUITE RAPIDEMENT AU SUD-OUEST DE L'A LE, ENTRE LE CAP
SAINTE-MARIE ET LE CAP SAINT-VINCENT. CES VENTS SONT ACCOMPAGNA S DE
RAFALES PROCHES DES 100 KM/H SUR LA CA TE EST ET LES CONTREFORTS DES
HAUTS PLATEAUX EN S'ESTOMPANT RAPIDEMENT POUR FAIRE UNE APPARITION
SUR LE VERSANT SUD-OUEST DE L'A LE EN FIN DE JOURNA E, POUR SOUFFLER
ENTRE 80 ET 100 KM/H.
- LA HOULE DE SECTEUR SUD-SUD-EST CONCERNERA ENCORE LA CA TE EST DE
MADAGASCAR POUR UNE HAUTEUR EVOLUANT ENTRE 3 ET 4 MA TRES, AVEC UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE. AVEC LE
RETOUR DE BATSIRAI EN SOIRA E DANS LE CANAL DE MOZAMBIQUE, LA MER DU
VENT VA SE RENFORCER SUR LA CA TE SUD-OUEST DE L'ILE ENTRE 5 ET 6
METRES, SUIVI D'UNE GROSSE HOULE DE SUD-EST QUI PLAFONNERA ENTRE 3 ET
4 METRES DE HAUTEUR EN JOURNEE DE LUNDI AVANT DE S'AMORTIR. LA MER
TOTALE ENTRE LE CAP ST-VINCENT ET LE CAP ST-VINCENT EVOLUERA ENTRE 4
ET 6 METRES JUSQU'A MERCREDI, PUIS S'AMORTIRA PROGRESSIVEMENT
AU-DELA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 061245
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 46/2/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.9 S / 44.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 555 SW: 555 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 390 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/07 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 435 SW: 445 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 120

24H: 2022/02/07 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 370 SW: 445 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 230 SW: 215 NW: 165

36H: 2022/02/08 00 UTC: 25.7 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 500 SW: 445 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 175

48H: 2022/02/08 12 UTC: 27.0 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 510 SW: 425 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 325 SW: 250 NW: 185

60H: 2022/02/09 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 470 SW: 405 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 155

72H: 2022/02/09 12 UTC: 31.5 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 510 SW: 390 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 350 SW: 270 NW: 155

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/10 12 UTC: 34.2 S / 45.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 220 SW: 260 NW: 325

120H: 2022/02/11 12 UTC: 36.1 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=/

THE OVERLAND DEPRESSION BATSARAI IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
PROVINCE OF ATSIMO-ANDREFANA (MADAGASCAR) AND CONTINUES ITS
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AT A GOOD PACE. AS SUGGESTED BY THE PARTIAL 0630Z
ASCAT-C, THE SYSTEM IS STILL GENERATING GALE FORCE WIND OVER THE
EASTERN SIDE OF MADAGASCAR. THE WIND EXTENSIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED IN
CONSEQUENCE. THE SATELLITE ANIMATIONS SHOW THAT AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS
OVER MADAGASCAR, THE INFLUENCE OF BATSARAI HAS WIDENED AND THE
PERIPHERAL BANDS CAN BE SEEN OVER A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN
MADAGASCAR.

THE SYSTEM IS PLANNED TO EMERGE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL TONIGHT, IN
THE SAINT-AUGUSTIN BAY, NEAR THE CITY OF TULEAR. ONCE BACK AT SEA,
BATSIRAI SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND THEN TO THE
SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE HIGH
GEOPOTENTIAL BELT TO THE SOUTH AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GRADUALLY
RETREATS TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE BASIN. BATSIRAI WILL THEN
ACCELERATE MORE STRONGLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST FROM TUESDAY,
FOLLOWING THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST.

IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FOLLOWING
ITS PASSAGE OVER THE LAND, THE RATHER LARGE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL NOT REALLY ALLOW TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AT FIRST. QUICKLY AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK, BATSIRAI SHOULD ENCOUNTER UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
DURING ITS DIVE TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES: WINDSHEAR ALOFT,
PROGRESSIVELY INJECTING DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM, THEN INSUFFICIENT OCEANIC POTENTIAL IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. AFTER THE 30TH PARALLEL, BATSARAI SHOULD START A POST-TROPICAL
TRANSITION PROBABLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BY INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR AND THE SOUTHERN CHANNEL:
- DEGRADED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER A LARGE SOUTHERN PART OF
MADAGASCAR, BETWEEN MAINTIRANO AND CAP SAINTE-MARIE, WITH 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE RANGE OF 200 TO 400 MM OVER THE EASTERN
PLATEAUS, AND IN THE RANGE OF 100 MM ELSEWHERE.
- GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUED ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTED, THE WINDS QUICKLY BECAME ESTABLISHED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
ISLAND, BETWEEN CAP SAINTE-MARIE AND CAP SAINT-VINCENT. THESE WINDS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 100 KM/H ON THE EAST COAST AND THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE HIGHLANDS, QUICKLY FADING TO APPEAR ON THE
SOUTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND AT THE END OF THE DAY, TO BLOW
BETWEEN 80 AND 100 KM/H.
- THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL STILL CONCERN THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR FOR A HEIGHT EVOLVING BETWEEN 3 AND 4 METERS, WITH A
PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE RETURN
OF BATSIRAI IN THE EVENING IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE WIND WAVE
WILL STRENGTHEN ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN COAST OF THE ISLAND BETWEEN 5
AND 6 METERS, FOLLOWED BY A BIG SOUTH-EAST SWELL WHICH WILL PEAK
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 METERS HIGH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE
DECREASING. THE TOTAL SEA BETWEEN CAPE ST-VINCENT AND CAPE ST-VINCENT
WILL EVOLVE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 METERS UNTIL WEDNESDAY, THEN IT WILL
PROGRESSIVELY DECREASE BEYOND THAT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 061225 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 046/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 06/02/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2 (BATSIRAI) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.9 S / 44.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
210 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 160
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/07 AT 00 UTC:
23.7 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 235 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 65 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/07 AT 12 UTC:
24.3 S / 41.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 160 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 90 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 061214
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 046/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 06/02/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (BATSIRAI) 990 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.9 S / 44.4 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 13 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
210 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 160
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/07 AT 00 UTC:
23.7 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 235 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 65 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/07 AT 12 UTC:
24.3 S / 41.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 160 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 90 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 060638
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 45/2/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 06/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.1 S / 45.3 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE CINQ DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 989 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 665 SO: 650 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 130

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1001 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/02/2022 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 480 SO: 360 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 270 SO: 175 NO: 175

24H: 07/02/2022 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 520 SO: 335 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 305 SO: 175 NO: 250

36H: 07/02/2022 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 575 SO: 455 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 345 SO: 295 NO: 270

48H: 08/02/2022 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 595 SO: 435 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SO: 250 NO: 260

60H: 08/02/2022 18 UTC: 27.6 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 545 SO: 400 NO: 400
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 325 SO: 230 NO: 280

72H: 09/02/2022 06 UTC: 30.0 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 595 SO: 455 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SO: 270 NO: 260

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2022 06 UTC: 33.7 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 370 SO: 230 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SO: 140 NO: 175

120H: 11/02/2022 06 UTC: 36.6 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
APRES AVOIR ATTERRI SUR LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR, A PROXIMITE DE
MANANJARY, BATSARAI A POURSUIVI SA ROUTE SUR UNE TRAJECTORE
OUEST-SUD-OUEST RAPIDE. SA PROGRESSION SUR LES TERRES MALGACHES A
AFFAIBLI CE SYSTEME, QUI EST PREVU DE RESSORTIR DANS LE CANAL DE
MOZAMBIQUE EN FIN DE JOURNEE, UN PEU AU NORD DE LA VILE DE TULEAR. DE
RETOUR EN MER, BATSIRAI DEVRAIT AMORCER UN VIRAGE EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST PUIS DU SUD EN RAISON DE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE PUIS DE SON DECALAGE AU
CENTRE DU BASSIN. BATSIRAI ACCELERERA EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST PLUS
FRANCHEMENT A PARTIR DE MARDI, SUITE A SON INTERACTION AVEC UN
THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES ARRIVANT PAR L'OUEST.

DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, APRES UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF
SUITE A SON PASSAGE SUR LES TERRES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT AVOIR UNE
STRUCTURE ASSEZ LARGE QUI NE LUI PERMETTRA PAS VRAIMENT DE PROFITER
DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES ASSEZ CORRECTES DANS UN PREMIER
TEMPS. RAPIDEMENT DANS LE COURANT DE LA SEMAINE PROCHAINE, BATSIRAI
DEVRAIT RENCONTRER DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES ASSEZ PEU
FAVORABLES POUR UNE INTENSIFICATION LORS DE SA PLONGEE VERS LES
LATITUDES SUD: CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, INJECTANT
PROGRESSIVEMENT DE L'AIR SEC DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD DU SYSTEME,
PUIS POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN NETTE BAISSE EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE.
BATSARAI DEVRAIT ENTAMER UNE TRANSITION POST-TROPICALE PROBABLE EN
MILIEU DE SEMAINE PAR INTERACTION AVEC UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR MADAGASCAR ET LE SUD DU CANAL:
- LES MAUVAISES CONDITIONS VONT PERDURER SUR UNE GRANDE MOITIA SUD
DE L'A LE DE MADAGASCAR, ENTRE MAINTIRANO ET LE CAP SAINTE-MARIE,
AVEC DES CUMULS DE PLUIE SUR 24 HEURES DE L'ORDRE DE 200 A 400
MM SUR LES PLATEAUX DE L'EST DE L'A LE, ET DE L'ORDRE DE 100 MM
AILLEURS. - DES VENTS MOYENS DE FORCE TEMPA TE SE MAINTIENNENT EN
JOURNA E LE LONG DE LA COTE EST, ET SUITE AU DA PLACEMENT DU SYSTA ME
S'A TABLISSENT ENSUITE RAPIDEMENT AU SUD-OUEST DE L'A LE, ENTRE LE
CAP SAINTE-MARIE ET LE CAP SAINT-VINCENT. CES VENTS SONT ACCOMPAGNA S
DE VIOLENTES RAFALES PROCHES DES 100 KM/H SUR LA CA TE EST ET LES
CONTREFORTS DES HAUTS PLATEAUX. CELLES-CI S'ESTOMPERONT EN JOURNA E
POUR FAIRE UNE APPARITION SUR LE VERSANT SUD-OUEST DE L'A LE EN FIN
DE JOURNA E, POUR SOUFFLER ENTRE 80 ET 100 KM/H.
- LA HOULE DE SECTEUR SUD-EST CONCERNERA ENCORE LA CA TE EST DE
MADAGASCAR POUR UNE HAUTEUR PROCHE DES 3 MA TRES, AVEC UNE NETTE
TENDANCE A L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT EN JOURNA E. AVEC LE DA PLACEMENT DE
BATSIRAI LA MER SE LA VE SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'A LE, AVEC UNE HOULE
ET UNE MER DU VENT CONJUGUA ES DONNENT UNE MER TOTALE DE L'ORDRE DE 6
MA TRES EN FIN DE JOURNA E AU SUD DU CAP SAINT-VINCENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 060638
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 45/2/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 45.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 665 SW: 650 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/06 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 43.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 480 SW: 360 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 270 SW: 175 NW: 175

24H: 2022/02/07 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 520 SW: 335 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 305 SW: 175 NW: 250

36H: 2022/02/07 18 UTC: 24.7 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 575 SW: 455 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 345 SW: 295 NW: 270

48H: 2022/02/08 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 41.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 595 SW: 435 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SW: 250 NW: 260

60H: 2022/02/08 18 UTC: 27.6 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 545 SW: 400 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 280

72H: 2022/02/09 06 UTC: 30.0 S / 41.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 595 SW: 455 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SW: 270 NW: 260

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/10 06 UTC: 33.7 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 370 SW: 230 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 140 NW: 175

120H: 2022/02/11 06 UTC: 36.6 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
AFTER LANDING ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, NEAR MANANJARY,
BATSARAI CONTINUED ON A FAST WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. ITS PROGRESS OVER
THE MALAGASY LANDS HAS WEAKENED THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
EMERGE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AT THE END OF THE DAY, A LITTLE
NORTH OF TULEAR. BACK AT SEA, BATSIRAI SHOULD START A TURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST AND THEN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE WEAKENING
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ITS SHIFT IN THE CENTER OF THE BASIN.
BATSIRAI WILL ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST MORE CLEARLY FROM
TUESDAY, FOLLOWING ITS INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.

IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FOLLOWING
ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE A RATHER LARGE
STRUCTURE WHICH WILL NOT REALLY ALLOW IT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
FAIRLY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AT FIRST. QUICKLY DURING THE
NEXT WEEK, BATSIRAI SHOULD ENCOUNTER UNCONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FOR AN INTENSIFICATION DURING ITS DIVE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN LATITUDES: WINDSHEAR ALOT INJECTING PROGRESSIVELY DRY AIR IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, THEN OCEANIC POTENTIAL IN NET
DECREASE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BATSARAI SHOULD START A PROBABLE
POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BY INTERACTION
WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR AND THE SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL:
- POOR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER A LARGE SOUTHERN PART OF
MADAGASCAR, BETWEEN MAINTIRANO AND CAPE SAINTE-MARIE, WITH 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE RANGE OF 200 TO 400 MM ON THE EASTERN PLATEAUS
OF THE ISLAND, AND AROUND 100 MM ELSEWHERE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
MAINTAINED DURING THE DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND FOLLOWING THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, THEY QUICKLY ESTABLISH THEMSELVES IN THE
SOUTH-WEST OF THE ISLAND, BETWEEN THE CAPE SAINT-MARIE AND THE CAPE
SAINT-VINCENT. THESE WINDS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY VIOLENT GUSTS CLOSE TO
100 KM/H ON THE EAST COAST AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE HIGHLANDS. THESE
WINDS WILL FADE DURING THE DAY TO APPEAR ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN SIDE OF
THE ISLAND AT THE END OF THE DAY, TO BLOW BETWEEN 80 AND 100 KM/H.
- THE SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL STILL CONCERN THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR
FOR A HEIGHT CLOSE TO 3 METERS, WITH A CLEAR TENDENCY TO WEAKEN
DURING THE DAY. WITH THE DISPLACEMENT OF BATSIRAI THE SEA RISES ON
THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE ISLAND, WITH A SWELL AND A WIND SEA COMBINED
GIVING A TOTAL SEA OF ABOUT 6 METERS AT THE END OF THE DAY SOUTH OF
CAPE SAINT-VINCENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 060622
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 045/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 06/02/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2 (BATSIRAI) 989 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 45.3 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 240 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/06 AT 18 UTC:
23.5 S / 43.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 260 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 95 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/07 AT 06 UTC:
23.9 S / 41.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 NM SE: 280 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 185 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 135 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 060300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 220206014005
2022020600 08S BATSIRAI 021 02 255 13 SATL 060
T000 213S 0469E 060 R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 085 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T012 222S 0444E 040 R034 090 NE QD 200 SE QD 140 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 233S 0422E 040 R034 060 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 242S 0412E 045 R034 090 NE QD 230 SE QD 170 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 253S 0410E 050 R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 250 SE QD 170 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 285S 0414E 045 R034 210 NE QD 250 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 333S 0435E 040 R034 210 NE QD 250 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 21.3S 46.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 46.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.2S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.3S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.2S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 25.3S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 28.5S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 33.3S 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 46.3E.
06FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
148 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z AND 070300Z.
//
0822012318 83S 883E 20
0822012400 88S 890E 20
0822012406 93S 896E 20
0822012412 98S 898E 20
0822012418 103S 901E 25
0822012500 110S 904E 25
0822012506 115S 907E 20
0822012512 122S 909E 20
0822012518 132S 906E 20
0822012600 142S 896E 25
0822012606 144S 881E 30
0822012612 150S 866E 30
0822012618 157S 852E 30
0822012700 164S 837E 35
0822012706 169S 819E 45
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012806 183S 747E 45
0822012812 183S 734E 45
0822012818 183S 724E 50
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020500 199S 513E 100
0822020500 199S 513E 100
0822020500 199S 513E 100
0822020506 204S 505E 100
0822020506 204S 505E 100
0822020506 204S 505E 100
0822020512 207S 493E 100
0822020512 207S 493E 100
0822020512 207S 493E 100
0822020518 210S 483E 100
0822020518 210S 483E 100
0822020518 210S 483E 100
0822020600 213S 469E 60
0822020600 213S 469E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 21.3S 46.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 46.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.2S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.3S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.2S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 25.3S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 28.5S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 33.3S 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 46.3E.
06FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
148 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 061500Z AND 070300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CLIFF)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 060056
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 44/2/20212022
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 06/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.9 S / 47.2 E
(VINGT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE SEPT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 980 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 665 SO: 650 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 130

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1001 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/02/2022 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 565 SO: 490 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 325 SO: 295 NO: 175

24H: 07/02/2022 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 555 SO: 435 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 325 SO: 260 NO: 195

36H: 07/02/2022 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 565 SO: 285 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 335 SO: 150 NO: 250

48H: 08/02/2022 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 585 SO: 415 NO: 400
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SO: 220 NO: 280

60H: 08/02/2022 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 630 SO: 425 NO: 400
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SO: 260 NO: 280

72H: 09/02/2022 00 UTC: 28.9 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 565 SE: 610 SO: 405 NO: 380
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 380 SO: 280 NO: 270

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 10/02/2022 00 UTC: 32.6 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 470 SO: 250 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SO: 165 NO: 240

120H: 11/02/2022 00 UTC: 35.0 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 270 SO: 140 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, BATSIRAI A ATTERRI SUR LA COTE EST
MALGAGHE A PROXIMITA NORD DE MANANJARY.
SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE QUI VE PRENDRE PROGRESSIVEMENT LE DIRECTION DU
SUD-OUEST IL EST PREVU RESSORTIR SUR LE CANAL EN FIN DE JOURNA E.
DIMANCHE SOIR.
BATSIRAI RESSORTIRA, AFFAIBLI, DANS LE SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. IL
INCURVERA SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD EN DEBUT DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE DU FAIT DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET DU DECALAGE VERS
L'EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET DE L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG PAR LE
SUD-OUEST.

DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, APRES UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF
SUITE A SON PASSAGE SUR LES TERRES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT AVOIR UNE
STRUCTURE ASSEZ LARGE QUI NE LUI PERMETTRA PAS VRAIMENT DE PROFITER
DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES ASSEZ CORRECTES DANS UN PREMIER
TEMPS. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
(CISAILLEMENT, PRESENCE D'AIR SEC DANS LE NORD-OUEST DU SYSTEME,
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE) DEVRAIENT LIMITER L'INTENSITE DU
SYSTEME LORS DE SA PLONGEE VERS LES LATITUDES SUD AVEC UNE TRANSITION
POST-TROPICALE PROBABLE EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PAR INTERACTION AVEC UN
TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.


IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR MADAGASCAR ET LE SUD DU CANAL:
DES CONDITIONS DEGRADEES VONT PERDURER SUR UNE LARGE MOITIA SUD DE
MADAGASCAR, AVEC DE FORTES PLUIES DA PASSANT LES 100MM SUR L'A
PISODE, VOIRE DES NOYAUX DE 300/500MM SUR L'EST.
LES VENTS FORTS DE FORCE TEMPA TE SE MAINTIENNENT EN JOURNA E LE LONG
DE LA COTE EST, ET S'A TABLISSENT RAPIDEMMENT A GALEMENT AU SUD DU
CAP SAINT-VINCENT SUR LA COTE SUD-OUEST. LA HOULE D'EST RESTE MODA RA
E SUR LA COTE SUD-EST AUJOURD'HUI. UNE GRANDE HOULE DE SUD S'ETABLIT
ENTRE TOLIARA ET LE CAP ST-VINCENT SUR LA COTE SUD-OUEST DIMANCHE
SOIR, PUIS UNE GRANDE HOULE DE SUD-EST GAGNE L'ILE D'EUROPA LUNDI.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 060056
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 44/2/20212022
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 47.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 665 SW: 650 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 130

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/06 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 565 SW: 490 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 175

24H: 2022/02/07 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 42.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 555 SW: 435 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 325 SW: 260 NW: 195

36H: 2022/02/07 12 UTC: 24.4 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 565 SW: 285 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 335 SW: 150 NW: 250

48H: 2022/02/08 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 585 SW: 415 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SW: 220 NW: 280

60H: 2022/02/08 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 630 SW: 425 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SW: 260 NW: 280

72H: 2022/02/09 00 UTC: 28.9 S / 42.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 565 SE: 610 SW: 405 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 380 SW: 280 NW: 270

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/10 00 UTC: 32.6 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 575 SE: 470 SW: 250 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 305 SW: 165 NW: 240

120H: 2022/02/11 00 UTC: 35.0 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 270 SW: 140 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST HOURS, BATSIRAI HAS LANDED AND MOVED ON THE MALAGASY
EAST COAST NEAR THE NORTH OF MANANJARY.
ON A TRAJECTORY THAT WILL PROGRESSIVELY TAKE THE SOUTH-WEST
DIRECTION, IT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE ON THE CHANNEL AT THE END OF THE
DAY.
ON SUNDAY EVENING, BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE, WEAKENED, IN THE SOUTH OF
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. IT WILL CURVE ITS TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THE
WEAKENING AND THE SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH BY THE SOUTH-WEST.

IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FOLLOWING
ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE A RATHER LARGE
STRUCTURE WHICH WILL NOT REALLY ALLOW IT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
FAIRLY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AT FIRST. IN THE LONGER TERM,
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (SHEAR, PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
NORTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL) SHOULD LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PLUNGES TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
LATITUDES WITH A PROBABLE POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK THROUGH INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.


EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR AND THE SOUTH PART OF THE CHANNEL:
DETERIORATED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER A LARGE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MADAGASCAR, WITH HEAVY RAINS EXCEEDING 100MM OVER THE EPISODE, EVEN
NUCLEI OF 300/500MM OVER THE EAST.
STRONG STORM FORCE WINDS ARE MAINTAINED DURING THE DAY ALONG THE EAST
COAST, AND ARE ALSO QUICKLY ESTABLISHED SOUTH OF CAPE SAINT-VINCENT
ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST. THE EAST SWELL REMAINS MODERATE ON THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. A BIG SOUTH SWELL IS ESTABLISHING ITSELF
BETWEEN TOLIARA AND CAPE ST-VINCENT ON THE SOUTH-WEST COAST ON SUNDAY
EVENING, THEN A BIG SOUTH-EAST SWELL IS REACHING EUROPA ISLAND ON
MONDAY.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 060010
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/02/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 044/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 06/02/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: OVERLAND DEPRESSION 2 (BATSIRAI) 980 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 47.2 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 250 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 400 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/06 AT 12 UTC:
22.6 S / 44.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 305 NM SW: 265 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 95 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/07 AT 00 UTC:
23.5 S / 42.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 300 NM SW: 235 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 105 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051810 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 43/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 05/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.9 S / 48.3 E
(VINGT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 944 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 665 SO: 405 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SO: 280 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 160 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 100

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1001 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/02/2022 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 650 SO: 325 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 370 SO: 185 NO: 195

24H: 06/02/2022 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 470 SO: 390 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 270 SO: 250 NO: 205

36H: 07/02/2022 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 535 SO: 445 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SO: 260 NO: 220

48H: 07/02/2022 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 620 SO: 405 NO: 400
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 360 SO: 260 NO: 280

60H: 08/02/2022 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 595 SO: 425 NO: 405
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SO: 285 NO: 280

72H: 08/02/2022 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 665 SO: 425 NO: 400
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 400 SO: 260 NO: 280

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/02/2022 18 UTC: 31.5 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 545 SO: 325 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 345 SO: 220 NO: 250

120H: 10/02/2022 18 UTC: 34.5 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 390 SO: 165 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SO: 140 NO: 175

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE
BATSIRAI, A PEU CHANGE, AVEC DES SOMMETS ENCORE TRES FROIDS
CEINTURANT UN OEIL RESTANT BIEN DEFINI EN IMAGERIE VIS/IR. L'IMAGERIE
SSMIS CONFIRME LE RAYON DE VENT MAXIMUM. L'INTENSITE EST INCHANGEE
EN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES GUIDANCES OBJECTIVES (UN PEU PLUS ELEVEES), LA
PASS SMAP VERS 00Z CE MATIN A 94 KT ET LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES.

BATSIRAI SE DEPLACE SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST VERS LA COTE
MALGAGHE A UNE VITESSE PLUS RAPIDE. L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR EST
EN COURS AVEC L'OEIL QUASIMENT COMPLETEMENT ENTRE SUR LA COTE A
PROXIMITE NORD DE MANANJARY. DIMANCHE SOIR, BATSIRAI RESSORTIRA,
AFFAIBLI, DANS LE SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. IL INCURVERA SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE
DU FAIT DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET DU DECALAGE VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE ET DE L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG PAR LE SUD-OUEST.

BATSIRAI SE TROUVE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TRES FAVORABLE CE SAMEDI
AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT
SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE. L'INTENSITE EST DONC RESTEE PEU OU PROU
INCHANGEE AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE.
DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, APRES UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF
SUITE A SON PASSAGE SUR LES TERRES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT AVOIR UNE
STRUCTURE ASSEZ LARGE QUI NE LUI PERMETTRA PAS VRAIMENT DE PROFITER
DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES ASSEZ CORRECTES DANS UN PREMIER
TEMPS. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
(CISAILLEMENT, PRESENCE D'AIR SEC DANS LE NORD-OUEST DU SYSTEME,
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE) DEVRAIENT LIMITER L'INTENSITE DU
SYSTEME LORS DE SA PLONGEE VERS LES LATITUDES SUD AVEC UNE TRANSITION
POST-TROPICALE PROBABLE EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PAR INTERACTION AVEC UN
TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR MADAGASCAR :
BATSIRAI EST UN CYCLONE TRES DANGEREUX POUR LA COTE EST DE
MADAGASCAR, AVEC SON ATTERRISSAGE EN COURS ENTRE NOSY VARIKA ET
MANANJARY.
DES RAFALES EXTREMES ET DESTRUCTRICES POUVANT ATTEINDRE OU DEPASSER
LES 200 KM/H SONT PROBABLES AU NIVEAU DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT. LES VAGUES
LIEES A LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE DEVRAIENT ATTEINDRE DES HAUTEURS DE 10 A
15 METRES ET UNE SURCOTE DE PLUS DE 1 METRES EST PROBABLE A PROXIMITE
ET AU SUD DE LA ZONE D'ATTERISSAGE AVEC DES SUBMERSIONS COTIERES
SIGNIFICATIVES SUR LA REGION DE MANANJARY ET AU SUD DE LA ZONE
D'IMPACT. LES PLUIES ATTENDUES LORS DE LA TRAVERSEE DE L'ILE
POURRAIENT ETRE DE L'ORDRE DE 100 MM EN 24H EN GENERAL SUR UNE PARTIE
DE LA MOITIE SUD DE MADAGASCAR MAIS AVEC DES NOYAUX DE L'ORDRE DE
300/500 MM SUR LES HAUTS PLATEAUX SITUES PRES DU POINT D'IMPACT. LES
POPULATIONS CONCERNEES SONT INVITEES A LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE ET A
SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES LOCALES.ENCORE=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051810 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 43/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 48.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 665 SW: 405 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 160 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/06 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 650 SW: 325 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 370 SW: 185 NW: 195

24H: 2022/02/06 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 470 SW: 390 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 205

36H: 2022/02/07 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 535 SW: 445 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 220

48H: 2022/02/07 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 620 SW: 405 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 360 SW: 260 NW: 280

60H: 2022/02/08 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 595 SW: 425 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 350 SW: 285 NW: 280

72H: 2022/02/08 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 665 SW: 425 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 400 SW: 260 NW: 280

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/09 18 UTC: 31.5 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 535 SE: 545 SW: 325 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 295 SE: 345 SW: 220 NW: 250

120H: 2022/02/10 18 UTC: 34.5 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 390 SW: 165 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 140 NW: 175

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE BATSIRAI EYE CONFIGURATION HAS CHANGED
LITTLE, WITH STILL VERY COLD TOPS SURROUNDING AN EYE REMAINING WELL
DEFINED IN VIS/IR IMAGERY. SSMIS IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE MAXIMUM WIND
RADIUS. THE INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED IN COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (A BIT HIGHER), THE SMAP PASS AROUND 00Z THIS
MORNING AT 94 KT AND THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

BATSIRAI IS MOVING ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE
MADAGASCAR COAST AT A FASTER SPEED. THE LANDING ON MADAGASCAR IS IN
PROGRESS WITH THE EYE ALMOST COMPLETELY ENTERED ON THE COAST NEAR THE
NORTH OF MANANJARY.
ON SUNDAY EVENING, BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE, WEAKENED, IN THE SOUTH OF
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. IT WILL CURVE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THE
WEAKENING AND THE SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH BY THE SOUTH-WEST.

THE INTENSITY THUS REMAINED MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED BEFORE THE
LANDING. IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE A RATHER
LARGE STRUCTURE WHICH WILL NOT REALLY ALLOW IT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE FAIRLY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AT FIRST. IN THE LONGER
TERM, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (SHEAR, PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL) SHOULD LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DURING ITS DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
LATITUDES WITH A PROBABLE POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK BY INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR :
BATSIRAI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE FOR THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, WITH A LANDFALL GOING ON BETWEEN NOSY VARIKA AND
MANANJARY. EXTREME AND DESTRUCTIVE GUSTS UP TO 200 KM/H OR MORE ARE
LIKELY IN THE IMPACT AREA. WAVES RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC SWELL ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 15 METERS AND A SURGE OF MORE THAN
1 METER IS LIKELY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE LANDING AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING IN THE MANANJARY AREA AND SOUTH OF THE IMPACT ZONE.
THE RAINFALL EXPECTED DURING THE CROSSING OF THE ISLAND COULD BE OF
THE ORDER OF 100 MM IN 24 HOURS IN GENERAL OVER PART OF THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF MADAGASCAR BUT WITH AMOUNTS OF THE ORDER OF 300/500 MM ON THE
HIGHLANDS LOCATED NEAR THE IMPACT POINT. THE POPULATIONS CONCERNED
ARE INVITED TO BE VERY CAREFUL AND TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 051810 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 043/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 05/02/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 944 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 48.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, AND UP TO 550
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN SECTOR.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 55 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 95 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/06 AT 06 UTC:
21.9 S / 45.8 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 190 NM SE: 350 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 105 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/06 AT 18 UTC:
23.0 S / 43.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 255 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 160 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 110 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051752
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 43/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 05/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.9 S / 48.3 E
(VINGT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE HUIT DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 944 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 665 SO: 405 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SO: 280 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 160 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 100

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1001 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/02/2022 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 000 , DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE

24H: 06/02/2022 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 000 , DEPRESSION
TROPICALE

36H: 07/02/2022 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 000 , TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

48H: 07/02/2022 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 000 , TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

60H: 08/02/2022 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 000 , TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

72H: 08/02/2022 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 000 , TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/02/2022 18 UTC: 31.5 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 000 , DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

120H: 10/02/2022 18 UTC: 34.5 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 000 , DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE
BATSIRAI, A PEU CHANGE, AVEC DES SOMMETS ENCORE TRES FROIDS
CEINTURANT UN OEIL RESTANT BIEN DEFINI EN IMAGERIE VIS/IR. L'IMAGERIE
SSMIS CONFIRME LE RAYON DE VENT MAXIMUM. L'INTENSITE EST INCHANGEE
EN COMPROMIS ENTRE LES GUIDANCES OBJECTIVES (UN PEU PLUS ELEVEES), LA
PASS SMAP VERS 00Z CE MATIN A 94 KT ET LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES.

BATSIRAI SE DEPLACE SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST VERS LA COTE
MALGAGHE A UNE VITESSE PLUS RAPIDE. L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR EST
EN COURS AVEC L'OEIL QUASIMENT COMPLETEMENT ENTRE SUR LA COTE A
PROXIMITE NORD DE MANANJARY. DIMANCHE SOIR, BATSIRAI RESSORTIRA,
AFFAIBLI, DANS LE SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. IL INCURVERA SA
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE
DU FAIT DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET DU DECALAGE VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE ET DE L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG PAR LE SUD-OUEST.

BATSIRAI SE TROUVE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TRES FAVORABLE CE SAMEDI
AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT
SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE. L'INTENSITE EST DONC RESTEE PEU OU PROU
INCHANGEE AVANT L'ATTERRISSAGE.
DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, APRES UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF
SUITE A SON PASSAGE SUR LES TERRES, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT AVOIR UNE
STRUCTURE ASSEZ LARGE QUI NE LUI PERMETTRA PAS VRAIMENT DE PROFITER
DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES ASSEZ CORRECTES DANS UN PREMIER
TEMPS. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
(CISAILLEMENT, PRESENCE D'AIR SEC DANS LE NORD-OUEST DU SYSTEME,
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE) DEVRAIENT LIMITER L'INTENSITE DU
SYSTEME LORS DE SA PLONGEE VERS LES LATITUDES SUD AVEC UNE TRANSITION
POST-TROPICALE PROBABLE EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PAR INTERACTION AVEC UN
TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR MADAGASCAR :
BATSIRAI EST UN CYCLONE TRES DANGEREUX POUR LA COTE EST DE
MADAGASCAR, AVEC SON ATTERRISSAGE EN COURS ENTRE NOSY VARIKA ET
MANANJARY.
DES RAFALES EXTREMES ET DESTRUCTRICES POUVANT ATTEINDRE OU DEPASSER
LES 200 KM/H SONT PROBABLES AU NIVEAU DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT. LES VAGUES
LIEES A LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE DEVRAIENT ATTEINDRE DES HAUTEURS DE 10 A
15 METRES ET UNE SURCOTE DE PLUS DE 1 METRES EST PROBABLE A PROXIMITE
ET AU SUD DE LA ZONE D'ATTERISSAGE AVEC DES SUBMERSIONS COTIERES
SIGNIFICATIVES SUR LA REGION DE MANANJARY ET AU SUD DE LA ZONE
D'IMPACT. LES PLUIES ATTENDUES LORS DE LA TRAVERSEE DE L'ILE
POURRAIENT ETRE DE L'ORDRE DE 100 MM EN 24H EN GENERAL SUR UNE PARTIE
DE LA MOITIE SUD DE MADAGASCAR MAIS AVEC DES NOYAUX DE L'ORDRE DE
300/500 MM SUR LES HAUTS PLATEAUX SITUES PRES DU POINT D'IMPACT. LES
POPULATIONS CONCERNEES SONT INVITEES A LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE ET A
SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES LOCALES.ENCORE=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051752
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 43/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 48.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 665 SW: 405 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 160 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/06 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 45.8 E, VENT MAX= 000 , OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2022/02/06 18 UTC: 23.0 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 000 , TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

36H: 2022/02/07 06 UTC: 23.9 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 000 , MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2022/02/07 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 000 , MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2022/02/08 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 000 , MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

72H: 2022/02/08 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 000 , MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/09 18 UTC: 31.5 S / 42.9 E, VENT MAX= 000 ,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2022/02/10 18 UTC: 34.5 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 000 ,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE BATSIRAI EYE CONFIGURATION HAS CHANGED
LITTLE, WITH STILL VERY COLD TOPS SURROUNDING AN EYE REMAINING WELL
DEFINED IN VIS/IR IMAGERY. SSMIS IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE MAXIMUM WIND
RADIUS. THE INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED IN COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (A BIT HIGHER), THE SMAP PASS AROUND 00Z THIS
MORNING AT 94 KT AND THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

BATSIRAI IS MOVING ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE
MADAGASCAR COAST AT A FASTER SPEED. THE LANDING ON MADAGASCAR IS IN
PROGRESS WITH THE EYE ALMOST COMPLETELY ENTERED ON THE COAST NEAR THE
NORTH OF MANANJARY.
ON SUNDAY EVENING, BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE, WEAKENED, IN THE SOUTH OF
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. IT WILL CURVE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THE
WEAKENING AND THE SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH BY THE SOUTH-WEST.

THE INTENSITY THUS REMAINED MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED BEFORE THE
LANDING. IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE A RATHER
LARGE STRUCTURE WHICH WILL NOT REALLY ALLOW IT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE FAIRLY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AT FIRST. IN THE LONGER
TERM, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (SHEAR, PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL) SHOULD LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DURING ITS DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
LATITUDES WITH A PROBABLE POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK BY INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR :
BATSIRAI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE FOR THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, WITH A LANDFALL GOING ON BETWEEN NOSY VARIKA AND
MANANJARY. EXTREME AND DESTRUCTIVE GUSTS UP TO 200 KM/H OR MORE ARE
LIKELY IN THE IMPACT AREA. WAVES RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC SWELL ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 15 METERS AND A SURGE OF MORE THAN
1 METER IS LIKELY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE LANDING AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING IN THE MANANJARY AREA AND SOUTH OF THE IMPACT ZONE.
THE RAINFALL EXPECTED DURING THE CROSSING OF THE ISLAND COULD BE OF
THE ORDER OF 100 MM IN 24 HOURS IN GENERAL OVER PART OF THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF MADAGASCAR BUT WITH AMOUNTS OF THE ORDER OF 300/500 MM ON THE
HIGHLANDS LOCATED NEAR THE IMPACT POINT. THE POPULATIONS CONCERNED
ARE INVITED TO BE VERY CAREFUL AND TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 051750
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 043/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 05/02/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 944 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 48.3 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, AND UP TO 550
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN SECTOR.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 55 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 95 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/06 AT 06 UTC:
21.9 S / 45.8 E, MAX WIND = 0 , OVERLAND DEPRESSION

24H, VALID 2022/02/06 AT 18 UTC:
23.0 S / 43.3 E, MAX WIND = 0 , TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 051500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 220205135659
2022020512 08S BATSIRAI 020 02 245 10 SATL 025
T000 208S 0494E 100 R064 045 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 125 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 195 SE QD 160 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 216S 0470E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 190 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 227S 0444E 055 R050 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 236S 0425E 040 R034 090 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 249S 0415E 040 R034 120 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 270S 0414E 050 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 304S 0423E 045 R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 341S 0459E 040 R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 20.8S 49.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 49.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.6S 47.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.7S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.6S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.9S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 27.0S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 30.4S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 34.1S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 48.8E.
05FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
156 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 060300Z AND 061500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CLIFF)
0822012318 83S 883E 20
0822012400 88S 890E 20
0822012406 93S 896E 20
0822012412 98S 898E 20
0822012418 103S 901E 25
0822012500 110S 904E 25
0822012506 115S 907E 20
0822012512 122S 909E 20
0822012518 132S 906E 20
0822012600 142S 896E 25
0822012606 144S 881E 30
0822012612 150S 866E 30
0822012618 157S 852E 30
0822012700 164S 837E 35
0822012706 169S 819E 45
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012806 183S 747E 45
0822012812 183S 734E 45
0822012818 183S 724E 50
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020500 199S 513E 100
0822020500 199S 513E 100
0822020500 199S 513E 100
0822020506 204S 504E 100
0822020506 204S 504E 100
0822020506 204S 504E 100
0822020512 208S 494E 100
0822020512 208S 494E 100
0822020512 208S 494E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 20.8S 49.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 49.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.6S 47.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.7S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.6S 42.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.9S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 27.0S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 30.4S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 34.1S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 48.8E.
05FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
156 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 060300Z AND 061500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CLIFF)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 051300
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 42/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 05/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.8 S / 49.4 E
(VINGT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE NEUF DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 665 SO: 405 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SO: 280 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 160 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 100

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1001 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 06/02/2022 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 425 SO: 110 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SO: 85 NO: 155

24H: 06/02/2022 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 480 SO: 350 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 175

36H: 07/02/2022 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 510 SO: 400 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 285 SO: 215 NO: 195

48H: 07/02/2022 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 610 SO: 445 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 350 SO: 260 NO: 280

60H: 08/02/2022 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 585 SO: 405 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 335 SO: 270 NO: 280

72H: 08/02/2022 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 595 SO: 415 NO: 425
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SO: 260 NO: 285

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/02/2022 12 UTC: 30.4 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 585 SO: 175 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 360 SO: 150 NO: 205

120H: 10/02/2022 12 UTC: 34.1 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 400 SO: 260 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SO: 195 NO: 220

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0 CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE
BATSIRAI, LA CONFIGURATION S'EST UN PEU AMELIOREE AVEC DES SOMMETS
PLUS FROIDS CEINTURANT UN OEIL RESTANT BIEN DEFINI EN IMAGERIE
VIS/IR. L'IMAGERIE AMSR2 REVELE UN RAYRON DE VENT MAXIMUM PLUS LARGE
QU'INITIALEMENT ESCOMPTE. L'INTENSITE EST INCHANGEE EN COMPROMIS
ENTRE LES GUIDANCES OBJECTIVES (UN PEU PLUS ELEVEES), LA PASS SMAP
VERS 00Z CE MATIN A 94 KT ET LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES.

BATSIRAI SE DEPLACE SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST VERS LA COTE
MALGAGHE A UNE VITESSE PLUS RAPIDE. L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR EST
PREVU DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES SUR LA REGION VATOVAVY (PROXIMITE
NORD DE MANANJARY). DIMANCHE SOIR, BATSIRAI RESSORTIRA, AFFAIBLI,
DANS LE SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. IL INCURVERA SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
LE SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE DU FAIT DE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET DU DECALAGE VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE ET DE L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG PAR LE SUD-OUEST.

BATSIRAI SE TROUVE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TRES FAVORABLE CE SAMEDI
AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT
SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE. L'INTENSITE DEVRAIT RESTER PEU OU PROU
INCHANGEE D'ICI L'ATTERRISSAGE. DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, APRES UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF SUITE A SON PASSAGE SUR LES TERRES, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT AVOIR UNE STRUCTURE ASSEZ LARGE QUI NE LUI PERMETTRA
PAS VRAIMENT DE PROFITER DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES ASSEZ
CORRECTES DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES (CISAILLEMENT, PRESENCE D'AIR SEC DANS
LE NORD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE) DEVRAIENT
LIMITER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME LORS DE SA PLONGEE VERS LES LATITUDES
SUD AVEC UNE TRANSITION POST-TROPICALE PROBABLE EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE
PAR INTERACTION AVEC UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR MADAGASCAR :
BATSIRAI EST UN CYCLONE TRES DANGEREUX POUR LA COTE EST DE
MADAGASCAR, AVEC UN ATTERRISSAGE PREVU DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE SUR LA REGION VATOVAVY PRES DE NOSY
VARIKA ET AU NORD DE MANANJARY. AU MOMENT DE L'ATTERRISSAGE, DES
RAFALES EXTREMES ET DESTRUCTRICES POUVANT ATTEINDRE OU DEPASSER LES
200 KM/H SONT PROBABLES AU NIVEAU DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT. LES VAGUES
LIEES A LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE DEVRAIENT ATTEINDRE DES HAUTEURS DE 10 A
15 METRES ET UNE SURCOTE DE PLUS DE 1 METRES EST PROBABLE A PROXIMITE
ET AU SUD DE LA ZONE D'ATTERISSAGE AVEC DES SUBMERSIONS COTIERES
SIGNIFICATIVES SUR LA REGION DE MANANJARY ET AU SUD DE LA ZONE
D'IMPACT. LES PLUIES ATTENDUES LORS DE LA TRAVERSEE DE L'ILE
POURRAIENT ETRE DE L'ORDRE DE 100 MM EN 24H EN GENERAL SUR UNE PARTIE
DE LA MOITIE SUD DE MADAGASCAR MAIS AVEC DES NOYAUX DE L'ORDRE DE
300/500 MM SUR LES HAUTS PLATEAUX SITUES PRES DU POINT D'IMPACT. LES
POPULATIONS CONCERNEES SONT INVITEES A LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE ET A
SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 051300
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 42/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8 S / 49.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 665 SW: 405 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 160 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/06 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 425 SW: 110 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 85 NW: 155

24H: 2022/02/06 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 480 SW: 350 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 175

36H: 2022/02/07 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 510 SW: 400 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 285 SW: 215 NW: 195

48H: 2022/02/07 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 610 SW: 445 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 280

60H: 2022/02/08 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 585 SW: 405 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 335 SW: 270 NW: 280

72H: 2022/02/08 12 UTC: 26.5 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 595 SW: 415 NW: 425
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 285

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/09 12 UTC: 30.4 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 585 SW: 175 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 360 SW: 150 NW: 205

120H: 2022/02/10 12 UTC: 34.1 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 500 SE: 400 SW: 260 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 270 SW: 195 NW: 220

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE BATSIRAI EYE CONFIGURATION HAS IMPROVED
A BIT WITH COOLER CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING AN EYE THAT REMAINS WELL
DEFINED IN VIS/IR IMAGERY. AMSR2 IMAGERY REVEALS A WIDER RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WIND RAY THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. THE INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED
IN COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (A LITTLE HIGHER), THE
SMAP PASS AROUND 00Z THIS MORNING AT 94 KT AND THE SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES.

BATSIRAI IS MOVING ON A WEST-SOUTH-WEST TRACK TOWARDS THE MALAGASY
COAST AT A FASTER SPEED. THE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ON THE VATOVAVY REGION (NEAR THE NORTH OF MANANJARY). ON SUNDAY
EVENING, BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE, WEAKENED, IN THE SOUTH OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. IT WILL CURVE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST
THEN SOUTH AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING AND
THE SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE APPROACH
OF A TROUGH BY THE SOUTH-WEST.

BATSIRAI IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS SATURDAY WITH A VERY
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK SHEAR UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED UNTIL
LANDING. IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE A RATHER
LARGE STRUCTURE WHICH WILL NOT REALLY ALLOW IT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE FAIRLY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AT FIRST. IN THE LONGER
TERM, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (SHEAR, PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL) SHOULD LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DURING ITS DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
LATITUDES WITH A PROBABLE POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK BY INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR :
BATSIRAI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE FOR THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, WITH A LANDFALL EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS AN
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE VATOVAVY REGION NEAR NOSY VARIKA
AND NORTH OF MANANJARY. AT THE TIME OF THE LANDING, EXTREME AND
DESTRUCTIVE GUSTS UP TO 200 KM/H OR MORE ARE LIKELY IN THE IMPACT
AREA. WAVES RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 15 METERS AND A SURGE OF MORE THAN 1 METER IS LIKELY
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE LANDING AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING
IN THE MANANJARY AREA AND SOUTH OF THE IMPACT ZONE. THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED DURING THE CROSSING OF THE ISLAND COULD BE OF THE ORDER OF
100 MM IN 24 HOURS IN GENERAL OVER PART OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MADAGASCAR BUT WITH AMOUNTS OF THE ORDER OF 300/500 MM ON THE
HIGHLANDS LOCATED NEAR THE IMPACT POINT. THE POPULATIONS CONCERNED
ARE INVITED TO BE VERY CAREFUL AND TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO24 FMEE 051226
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 042/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 05/02/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8 S / 49.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 55 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 85 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 95 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/06 AT 00 UTC:
21.4 S / 46.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 NM SE: 230 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 120 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 85 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/06 AT 12 UTC:
22.7 S / 43.8 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 260 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 95 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 050700
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 41/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 05/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.4 S / 50.5 E
(VINGT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 35 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 665 SO: 405 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SO: 280 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 130 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1001 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/02/2022 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 565 SO: 150 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 305 SO: 120 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SO: 45 NO: 65

24H: 06/02/2022 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 455 SO: 315 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SO: 185 NO: 175

36H: 06/02/2022 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 490 SO: 400 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 280 SO: 220 NO: 205

48H: 07/02/2022 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 530 SO: 435 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 215

60H: 07/02/2022 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 665 SO: 380 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 390 SO: 230 NO: 270

72H: 08/02/2022 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 630 SO: 445 NO: 380
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SO: 270 NO: 270

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/02/2022 06 UTC: 28.3 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 650 SO: 400 NO: 380
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 390 SO: 285 NO: 270

120H: 10/02/2022 06 UTC: 32.8 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 500 SO: 150 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SO: 120 NO: 230

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5+ CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE BATSIRAI
S'EST DEGRADEE PLUS SENSIBLEMENT SUR LES 3 DERNIERES HEURES.
L'INTENSITE EST ABAISEE A 90 KT EN ACCORD AVEC LES ESTIMATIONS
OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES. CELA EST POTENTIELLEMENT
GENEREUX COMPTE TENU DE LA PASS SAR D'HIER SOIR QUI NE METTAIT DES
VENTS 1-MIN DE L'ORDRE DE 100 KT.

BATSIRAI SE DEPLACE SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST VERS LA COTE
MALGAGHE A UNE VITESSE UN PEU PLUS LENTE QU'INITIALEMENT PREVUE. CE
DEPLACEMENT PLUS LENT LAISSE LE TEMPS A LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE SE
DECALER UN PEU PLUS VERS L'EST ET INDUIT DONC UNE PLONGEE UN PEU PLUS
MARQUEE VERS LE SUD QUE SUR LES PRECEDENTES PREVISIONS.
L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR EST PREVU CE SAMEDI ENTRE LA FIN
D'APRES-MIDI ET SOIREE SUR LA REGION VATOVAVY (PROXIMITE NORD DE
MANANJARY). DIMANCHE SOIR, BATSIRAI RESSORTIRA, AFFAIBLI, DANS LE SUD
DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. IL INCURVERA SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST
PUIS SUD EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE DU FAIT DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
ET DU DECALAGE VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET DE L'APPROCHE
D'UN TALWEG PAR LE SUD-OUEST.

BATSIRAI SE TROUVE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TRES FAVORABLE CE SAMEDI
AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT
SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE. LA PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ACTUELLE PEUT
ETRE LIEE A DE L'INJECTION D'AIR SEC PROVENANT DES ZONES TERRESTRES
DE LA GRANDE ILE OU BIEN DE PROCESSUS INTERNE (VELLEITES DE
CONTRUCTION D'UN ANNEAU DE CONVECTION SECONDAIRE SUGGERE PAR
L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES). DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, APRES UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF SUITE A SON PASSAGE SUR LES TERRES, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT AVOIR UNE STRUCTURE ASSEZ LARGE QUI NE LUI PERMETTRA
PAS VRAIMENT DE PROFITER DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES ASSEZ
CORRECTES DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LES
CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES (CISAILLEMENT, PRESENCE D'AIR SEC DANS
LE NORD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN BAISSE) DEVRAIENT
LIMITER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME LORS DE SA PLONGEE VERS LES LATITUDES
SUD AVEC UNE TRANSITION POST-TROPICALE PROBABLE EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE
PAR INTERACTION AVEC UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR MADAGASCAR :
BATSIRAI EST UN CYCLONE TRES DANGEREUX POUR LA COTE EST DE
MADAGASCAR, AVEC UN ATTERRISSAGE PREVU SAMEDI EN FIN DE JOURNEE AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL OU CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE SUR LA REGION
VATOVAVY PRES DE NOSY VARIKA ET AU NORD DE MANANJARY, MAIS AVEC UNE
INCERTITUDE DE 50 KM SUR LA ZONE D'IMPACT. DEBUT DES IMPACTS PLUIES
ET VENTS DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. AU MOMENT DE L'ATTERRISSAGE, DES
RAFALES EXTREMES ET DESTRUCTRICES POUVANT ATTEINDRE OU DEPASSER LES
200 KM/H SONT PROBABLES AU NIVEAU DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT. LES VAGUES
LIEES A LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE DEVRAIENT ATTEINDRE DES HAUTEURS DE 10 A
15 METRES ET UNE SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE PLUS DE 1 METRES EST PROBABLE
A PROXIMITE ET AU SUD DE LA ZONE D'ATTERISSAGE. LES PLUIES ATTENDUES
LORS DE LA TRAVERSEE DE L'ILE POURRAIENT ETRE DE L'ORDRE DE 100 MM EN
24H EN GENERAL SUR UNE PARTIE DE LA MOITIE SUD DE MADAGASCAR MAIS
AVEC DES NOYAUX DE L'ORDRE DE 300/500 MM PRES DU POINT D'IMPACT. LES
POPULATIONS CONCERNEES SONT INVITEES A LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE ET A
SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 050700
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 41/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/05 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 50.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 35 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 665 SW: 405 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/05 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 565 SW: 150 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 305 SW: 120 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 45 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/06 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 455 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 175

36H: 2022/02/06 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 490 SW: 400 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 205

48H: 2022/02/07 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 41.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 530 SW: 435 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 215

60H: 2022/02/07 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 665 SW: 380 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 390 SW: 230 NW: 270

72H: 2022/02/08 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 630 SW: 445 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 370 SW: 270 NW: 270

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/09 06 UTC: 28.3 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 650 SW: 400 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 390 SW: 285 NW: 270

120H: 2022/02/10 06 UTC: 32.8 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 520 SE: 500 SW: 150 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SW: 120 NW: 230

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE BATSIRAI EYE PATTERN HAS DEGRADED MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LAST 3 HOURS. THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 90
KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES. THIS IS POTENTIALLY GENEROUS CONSIDERING THE SAR PASS OF
LAST NIGHT WHICH ONLY PUT 1-MIN WINDS IN THE ORDER OF 100 KT.

BATSIRAI IS MOVING ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS THE MALAGASY
COAST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. THIS SLOWER
MOVEMENT ALLOWS TIME FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO SHIFT A LITTLE MORE
TO THE EAST AND THUS INDUCES A SLIGHTLY STEEPER DIVE TO THE SOUTH
THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR IS PLANNED
THIS SATURDAY BETWEEN THE END OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE
VATOVAVY REGION (NEAR NORTH OF MANANJARY). ON SUNDAY EVENING,
BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE, WEAKENED, IN THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. IT WILL CURVE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH AT
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING AND THE SHIFT
TOWARDS THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE APPROACH OF A
TROUGH BY THE SOUTH-WEST.

BATSIRAI IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS SATURDAY WITH VERY
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK SHEAR UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE CURRENT WEAKENING PHASE MAY BE RELATED TO DRY AIR
INJECTION FROM THE LAND AREAS OR TO INTERNAL PROCESSES (POTENTIAL
BUILDING OF A SECONDARY CONVECTION RING SUGGESTED BY MICROWAVE
IMAGERY). IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE OVER THE LAND, THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE A RATHER
LARGE STRUCTURE WHICH WILL NOT REALLY ALLOW IT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE RATHER CORRECT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AT FIRST. IN THE LONGER
TERM, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (SHEAR, PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, DECREASING OCEANIC POTENTIAL) SHOULD LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DURING ITS DIVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
LATITUDES WITH A PROBABLE POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK BY INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR :
BATSIRAI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE FOR THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, WITH AN EXPECTED LANDFALL LATE SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OR INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE VATOVAVY REGION NEAR
NOSY VARIKA AND NORTH OF MANANJARY, BUT WITH AN UNCERTAINTY OF 50 KM
ON THE IMPACT AREA. RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS WILL START IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AT THE TIME OF LANDING, EXTREME AND DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 200 KM/H OR MORE ARE LIKELY IN THE IMPACT AREA. WAVES RELATED TO
THE CYCLONIC SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO REACH HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 15 METERS
AND A SURGE OF MORE THAN 1 METER IS LIKELY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
LANDING AREA. THE RAINFALL EXPECTED DURING THE CROSSING OF THE ISLAND
COULD BE OF THE ORDER OF 100 MM IN 24 HOURS IN GENERAL OVER PART OF
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MADAGASCAR BUT WITH LIKELY AREAS IN THE RANGE OF
300/500 MM NEAR THE POINT OF IMPACT. THE CONCERNED POPULATIONS ARE
INVITED TO BE VERY CAREFUL AND TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 050621
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 041/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 05/02/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 50.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 TO 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 95 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/05 AT 18 UTC:
20.9 S / 48.3 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 305 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 55 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/06 AT 06 UTC:
21.8 S / 45.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, OVERLAND DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 245 NM SW: 170 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 95 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 050300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 220205020300
2022020500 08S BATSIRAI 019 02 250 08 SATL 020
T000 199S 0513E 100 R064 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 195 SE QD 165 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 205S 0494E 095 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 211S 0472E 060 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 200 SE QD 120 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 220S 0445E 040 R034 080 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 228S 0428E 040 R034 090 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 245S 0416E 050 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 275S 0417E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 250 SE QD 180 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 314S 0431E 045 R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 19.9S 51.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 51.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.5S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.1S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.0S 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.8S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.5S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.5S 41.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 31.4S 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 50.8E.
05FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
223 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z.
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0822012318 83S 883E 20
0822012400 88S 890E 20
0822012406 93S 896E 20
0822012412 98S 898E 20
0822012418 103S 901E 25
0822012500 110S 904E 25
0822012506 115S 907E 20
0822012512 122S 909E 20
0822012518 132S 906E 20
0822012600 142S 896E 25
0822012606 144S 881E 30
0822012612 150S 866E 30
0822012618 157S 852E 30
0822012700 164S 837E 35
0822012706 169S 819E 45
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012806 183S 747E 45
0822012812 183S 734E 45
0822012818 183S 724E 50
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020418 196S 521E 105
0822020500 199S 513E 100
0822020500 199S 513E 100
0822020500 199S 513E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 19.9S 51.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 51.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.5S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.1S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.0S 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.8S 42.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.5S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 27.5S 41.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 31.4S 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 50.8E.
05FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
223 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CLIFF) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 050130
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 40/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 05/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.9 S / 51.3 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 935 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 31 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 650 SO: 465 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SO: 295 NO: 260
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 170 NO: 150
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/02/2022 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 555 SO: 250 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 305 SO: 175 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SO: 75 NO: 75

24H: 06/02/2022 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 470 SO: 150 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SO: 120 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 100 NO: 35

36H: 06/02/2022 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 555 SO: 425 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 305 SO: 260 NO: 175

48H: 07/02/2022 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 435 SO: 315 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SO: 175 NO: 215

60H: 07/02/2022 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 565 SO: 415 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 325 SO: 240 NO: 215

72H: 08/02/2022 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 630 SO: 415 NO: 380
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 370 SO: 260 NO: 260

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/02/2022 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 630 SO: 415 NO: 415
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SO: 280 NO: 280

120H: 10/02/2022 00 UTC: 30.5 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 535 SO: 325 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 345 SO: 195 NO: 240

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.5+;CI=6.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE BATSIRAI
EST RESTEE BIEN DEFINIE ET CIRCULAIRE, MAIS AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX
UN PEU MOINS FROIDS, DONNANT UNE ANALYSE DVORAK EN LEGERE BAISSE A
5.5+. CETTE LEGERE DEGRADATION ETAIT SUGGEREE PAR L'IMAGERIE
MICRO-ONDES GMI DE 1842Z MONTRANT UN ANNEAU CENTRAL ERODE DU COTE
NORD-OUEST. L'INTENSITE EST LAISSEE A 100KT PAR INERTIE ET EN
COHERENCE AVEC LES AUTRES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES (ADT, SATCON).

BATSIRAI SE DEPLACE SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE OUEST-SUD-OUEST VERS LA COTE
MALGAGHE A UNE VITESSE UN PEU PLUS LENTE QU'INITIALEMENT PREVUE. CE
DEPLACEMENT PLUS LENT LAISSE LE TEMPS A LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DE SE
DECALER UN PEU PLUS VERS L'EST ET INDUIT DONC UNE PLONGEE UN PEU PLUS
MARQUEE VERS LE SUD QUE SUR LES PRECEDENTES PREVISIONS.
L'ATTERRISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR EST PREVU CE SAMEDI ENTRE LA FIN
D'APRES-MIDI ET SOIREE SUR LA REGION VATOVAVY. DIMANCHE SOIR,
BATSIRAI RESSORTIRA, AFFAIBLI, DANS LE SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. IL
INCURVERA SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST PUIS SUD EN DEBUT DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE DU FAIT DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET DU DECALAGE VERS
L'EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET DE L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG PAR LE
SUD-OUEST.

BATSIRAI SE TROUVE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TRES FAVORABLE CE SAMEDI
AVEC UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET DE FAIBLES CISAILLEMENTS
SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE. LA REPRISE DE SON DEPLACEMENT PLUS FRANC
DEVRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE RETROUVER UN BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET
PERMETTRE UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A L'ATTERRISSAGE
POTENTIELLEMENT AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. DANS LE CANAL
DU MOZAMBIQUE, APRES UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF SUITE A SON
PASSAGE SUR LES TERRES, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT A NOUVEAU SE DEVELOPPER
DANS DES CONDITIONS ASSEZ FAVORABLES AU MOINS JUSQU'A LUNDI,
BENEFICIANT D'UN BON CANAL D'EVACUATION POLAIRE. A PLUS LONGUE
ECHEANCE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES (CISAILLEMENT, PRESENCE
D'AIR SEC DANS LE NORD-OUEST DU SYSTEME, POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EN
BAISSE) DEVRAIENT LIMITER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME LORS DE SA PLONGEE
VERS LES LATITUDES SUD AVEC UNE TRANSITION POST-TROPICALE PROBABLE EN
MILIEU DE SEMAINE PAR INTERACTION AVEC UN TALWEG DES MOYENNES
LATITUDES.

IMPACTS ATTENDUS SUR MADAGASCAR :
BATSIRAI EST UN CYCLONE TRES DANGEREUX POUR LA COTE EST DE
MADAGASCAR, AVEC UN ATTERRISSAGE PREVU SAMEDI EN FIN DE JOURNEE AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE SUR LA REGION VATOVAVY PRES DE NOSY
VARIKA ET AU NORD DE MANANJARY, MAIS AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE DE 50 A
100KM SUR LA ZONE D'IMPACT. DEBUT DES IMPACTS PLUIES ET VENTS DANS
LES PROCHAINES HEURES. AU MOMENT DE L'ATTERRISSAGE, DES RAFALES
EXTREMES ET DESTRUCTRICES POUVANT ATTEINDRE 200 A 250 KM/H SONT
PROBABLES AU NIVEAU DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT. LES VAGUES LIEES A LA HOULE
CYCLONIQUE DEVRAIENT ATTEINDRE DES HAUTEURS DE 10 A 15 METRES ET UNE
SURCOTE DE L'ORDRE DE 1 A 2 METRES EST PROBABLE A PROXIMITE ET AU SUD
DE LA ZONE D'ATTERISSAGE. LES PLUIES ATTENDUES LORS DE LA TRAVERSEE
DE L'ILE POURRAIENT ETRE DE L'ORDRE DE 100MM EN GENERAL SUR UNE
PARTIE DE LA MOITIE SUD DE MADAGASCAR MAIS AVEC DES NOYAUX DE L'ORDRE
DE 300/500MM PRES DU POINT D'IMPACT. LES POPULATIONS CONCERNEES SONT
INVITEES A LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE ET A SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES
AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 050130
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 40/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/05 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 51.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 935 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 31 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 650 SW: 465 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 260
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 170 NW: 150
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/05 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 555 SW: 250 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 305 SW: 175 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 75

24H: 2022/02/06 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 46.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 470 SW: 150 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 250 SW: 120 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 100 NW: 35

36H: 2022/02/06 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 555 SW: 425 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 175

48H: 2022/02/07 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 42.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 435 SW: 315 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 175 NW: 215

60H: 2022/02/07 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 565 SW: 415 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 215

72H: 2022/02/08 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 630 SW: 415 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 260

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/09 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 630 SW: 415 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SW: 280 NW: 280

120H: 2022/02/10 00 UTC: 30.5 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 535 SW: 325 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 305 SE: 345 SW: 195 NW: 240

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5+;CI=6.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, BATSIRAI'S EYE PATTERN HAS SLIGHTLY
DETERIORATED, ALTHOUGH STILL WELL-DEFINED AND CIRCULAR, BUT WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER CLOUD TOPS, LEADING TO A 6-HOUR AVERAGED DT AROUND
5.5+. THIS SLIGHT DETERIORATION WAS ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE 1842Z GMI
MICRO-WAVE PASS SHOWING A WEAKER EYEWALL ON ITS NORTHWESTERN SECTOR.
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100KT BY INERTIA AND IN LINE WITH OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE SUCH AS SATCON AND ADT.

BATSIRAI IS MOVING ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS THE MALAGASY
COAST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. THIS SLOWER
MOVEMENT GIVES TIME TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO SHIFT A BIT MORE
EASTWARD AND INDUCES A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD DIP THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR IS FORECAST THIS SATURDAY BETWEEN
THE END OF THE AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING ON THE VATOVAVY REGION.
ON SUNDAY EVENING, BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE, MUCH WEAKER, IN THE SOUTH OF
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. IT WILL CURVE ITS TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD THEN
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING AND THE SHIFT
TOWARDS THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH
FROM THE SOUTH-WEST.

BATSIRAI IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS SATURDAY WITH VERY
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK WIND SHEAR UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. ITS FASTER MOVEMENT THAN YESTERDAY SHOULD ALLOW IT TO BENEFIT
FROM GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND ALLOW NEW INTENSIFICATION UNTIL
LANDFALL POTENTIALLY AT THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE
OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM COULD AGAIN DEVELOP IN FAIRLY CONDUCIVE
CONDITIONS AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY, BENEFITING FROM GOOD POLAR OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. IN THE LONGER TERM, LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
(INCREASING WIND SHEAR, PRESENCE OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
SYSTEM, LOWER OCEANIC POTENTIAL) SHOULD LIMIT THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY
WHILE IT DIVES TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES WITH A PROBABLE
POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND MID-WEEK BY INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

EXPECTED IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR :
BATSIRAI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE FOR THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AS AN INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE VATOVAVY REGION NEAR NOSY VARIKA AND NORTH
OF MANANJARY, BUT WITH AN UNCERTAINTY OF 50 TO 100KM ON THE IMPACT
AREA. RAIN, WIND AND HIGH SURF IMPACTS WILL START IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL, EXTREME AND DESTRUCTIVE GUSTS UP TO
200 TO 250 KM/H ARE LIKELY IN THE IMPACT AREA. OFFSHORE WAVES COULD
REACH 10 TO 15 METERS AND A SURGE OF 1 TO 2 METERS IS LIKELY NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED DURING THE
CROSSING OF THE ISLAND COULD BE AROUND 100MM IN GENERAL OVER SOME
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MADAGASCAR BUT WITH LOCAL AREAS
REACHING UP TO 300/500MM NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA. POPULATIONS ARE
INVITED TO BE VERY CAREFUL AND TO FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 050021
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 05/02/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 040/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 05/02/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 935 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9 S / 51.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 400 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER3

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND
UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 140 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 170
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/05 AT 12 UTC:
20.5 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 NM SE: 300 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 55 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/06 AT 00 UTC:
20.9 S / 46.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 255 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 041934
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 39/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 04/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.6 S / 52.0 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 934 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 665 SO: 520 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SO: 295 NO: 260
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/02/2022 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 600 SO: 325 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SO: 220 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75

24H: 05/02/2022 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 455 SO: 150 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SO: 100 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SO: 45 NO: 55

36H: 06/02/2022 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 545 SO: 390 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SO: 205 NO: 185

48H: 06/02/2022 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 490 SO: 465 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 270 SO: 260 NO: 220

60H: 07/02/2022 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 545 SO: 315 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SO: 155 NO: 220

72H: 07/02/2022 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 630 SO: 435 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 350 SO: 260 NO: 260

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/02/2022 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 655 SO: 465 NO: 435
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 380 SO: 285 NO: 280
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SO: 150 NO: 35

120H: 09/02/2022 18 UTC: 29.2 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 595 SO: 370 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 350 SO: 250 NO: 240

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0

AU COURS DE DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EST RESTEE
A PEU PRES STATIONNAIRE, AVEC UN OEIL TRES BIEN DEFINI ET CIRCULAIRE.
LA PASSE SSMIS DE 1243Z MONTRE UN MUR DE L'OEIL BIEN CONSTITUE MALGRE
UNE FAIBLESSE COTE OUEST. UNE PASSE SAR A 1502Z MESURE DES VENTS
MAXIMAUX JUSQU'A 104KT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST ET PLUS
GENERALEMENT DE L'ORDRE DE 90 A 100KT. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EST RESTEE
STABLE ET PROCHE DE 6.0. L'INTENSITE EST DONC LAISSEE STATIONNAIRE A
1OOKT. LA PARTIE SUD DU MUR DE L'OEIL EST PASSEE AU-DESSUS DE LA
BOUEE 1401821 QUI A MESURE UNE PRESSION DE 956.6 HPA A 14UTC (A
ENVIRON 20MN AU SUD DU CENTRE DU CYCLONE), CE QUI RESTE COHERANT AVEC
L'ESTIMATION D'UNE PRESSION CENTRALE A 934 HPA, MALGRE UNE CERTAINE
MARGE D'ERREUR.

BATSIRAI RESTE PRINCIPALEMENT SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE ET A REPRIS UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS FRANC : IL SE DEPLACE
SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST VERS
MADAGASCAR. UN ATTERRISSAGE EST PREVU SAMEDI DANS L'APRES-MIDI SUR LA
COTE MALGACHE, ENTRE VATOMANDRY ET MANANJARY AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE
D'ENVIRON 100KM SUR LA ZONE D'IMPACT. DIMANCHE SOIR, BATSIRAI
RESSORTIRA, AFFAIBLI, DANS LE SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. IL
INCURVERA SA TRAJECTOIRE DANS LES SUD-EST DE L'ILE D'EUROPA, A UNE
DISTANCE QUI RESTE A PRECISER, AVANT D'INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE
DAVANTAGE VERS LE SUD EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE DU FAIT DE
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET DU DECALAGE VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES SEMBLENT CONFIRMER CE
SCENARIO QUI MAINTIENT LE SYSTEME A L'ECART DES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE.

BATSIRAI SE TROUVE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TRES FAVORABLE JUSQU'A
SAMEDI AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET DE
FAIBLES CISAILLEMENTS SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE. LA REPRISE DE SON
DEPLACEMENT PLUS FRANC DEVRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE RETROUVER UN BON
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET PERMETTRE UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A
L'ATTERRISSAGE POTENTIELLEMENT AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE
(VOIRE AU STADE MINIMUM DE CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE). DANS LE
CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, APRES UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF SUITE A
SON PASSAGE SUR LES TERRES, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT A NOUVEAU SE
DEVELOPPER DANS DES CONDITIONS ASSEZ FAVORABLES AU MOINS JUSQU'A
LUNDI, BENEFICIANT D'UN BON CANAL D'EVACUATION POLAIRE. A PLUS LONGUE
ECHEANCE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES (CISAILLEMENT
PRINCIPALEMENT, ET PRESENCE D'AIR SEC DANS LE NORD-OUEST DU SYSTEME )
DEVRAIENT LIMITER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME LORS DE SA PLONGEE VERS LES
LATITUDES SUD.

IMPACTS SUR MADAGASCAR :
BATSIRAI EST UN CYCLONE TRES DANGEREUX POUR LA COTE EST DE
MADAGASCAR, AVEC UN ATTERRISSAGE PREVU SAMEDI ENTRE MAHANORO ET
MANANJARY A UN STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE (STADE MINIMAL DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE PAS COMPLETEMENT EXCLU), AVEC UN DEBUT
DES IMPACTS PLUIES ET VENTS DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES SUR LES
REGIONS SITUA ES AU SUD DE VATOMANDRY. DES RAFALES EXTREMES ET
DESTRUCTRICES POUVANT ATTEINDRE 200 A 250 KM/H SONT PROBABLES AU
NIVEAU DE LA ZONE D'IMPACT SAMEDI. LES PLUIES ATTENDUES LORS DE LA
TRAVERSEE DE L'ILE POURRAIENT ETRE DE L'ORDRE DE 100MM EN GENERAL SUR
LA MOITIE SUD, MAIS AVEC DES NOYAUX DE L'ORDRE DE 300/500MM SUR LES
ZONES LITTORALES AU SUD DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE ET SUR LA CHAINE DE
L'EST. LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE DES HAUTEURS PROCHES DES
7/8M EN MOYENNE AVEC DES MAXIMA POUVANT APPROCHER LES 15M. UNE
SURCOTE MAXIMALE DE L'ORDRE DE 1 A 2 METRES EST PROBABLE A PROXIMITE
ET AU SUD DE LA ZONE D'ATTERISSAGE. LES POPULATIONS CONCERNEES SONT
INVITEES A SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 041934
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 39/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/04 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 52.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 934 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 665 SW: 520 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 260
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/05 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 600 SW: 325 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

24H: 2022/02/05 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 455 SW: 150 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 100 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2022/02/06 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 45.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 545 SW: 390 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 185

48H: 2022/02/06 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 490 SW: 465 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 220

60H: 2022/02/07 06 UTC: 22.7 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 545 SW: 315 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SW: 155 NW: 220

72H: 2022/02/07 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 40.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 630 SW: 435 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 260

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/08 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 465 SE: 655 SW: 465 NW: 435
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 380 SW: 285 NW: 280
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 35

120H: 2022/02/09 18 UTC: 29.2 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 595 SW: 370 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 285 SE: 350 SW: 250 NW: 240

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, BATSIRAI'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED ALMOST
STATIONARY, WITH A VERY WELL DEFINED AND CIRCULAR EYE. THE 1243Z
SSMIS PASS SHOWS A WELL CONSTITUTED EYEWALL DESPITE A SLIGHT WEAKNESS
ON ITS WEST SIDE. A 1502Z SAR PASS HAS MEASURED MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO
104KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND MORE GENERALLY AROUND 90 TO
100KT. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS REMAINS STABLE AND
CLOSE TO 6.0. BATSIRAI'S INTENSITY IS THUS LEFT STATIONARY AT 1OOKT.
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE EYEWALL TRACKED OVER BUOY 1401821 WHICH
MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 956.6 HPA AT 14UTC (ABOUT 20NM SOUTH OF THE
CYCLONE'S CENTER), WHICH REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE ESTIMATE OF A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 934 HPA, DESPITE A CERTAIN MARGIN OF ERROR.

BATSIRAI REMAINS MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND HAS RESUMED A MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD MOVEMENT: IT IS MOVING ON A
GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. LANDFALL IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE MALAGASY COAST, BETWEEN
VATOMANDRY AND MANANJARY WITH AN UNCERTAINTY OF ABOUT 100KM ON THE
IMPACT AREA. ON SUNDAY EVENING, BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE, WEAKENED, IN
THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. IT WILL CURVE ITS TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTH-EAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, AT A DISTANCE WHICH REMAINS TO BE
SPECIFIED, BEFORE CURVING MORE SOUTHWARDLY EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF
THE WEAKENING AND EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
DETERMINIST AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO CONFIRM THIS SCENARIO
WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM MOZAMBIQUE.

BATSIRAI IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL SATURDAY WITH VERY
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK WIND SHEAR UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THE RESUMPTION OF ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD ALLOW IT TO REGAIN A
GOOD OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND ALLOW A NEW INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDFALL
POTENTIALLY AT THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE (MINIMUM
STAGE OF A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CAN'T BE RULED OUT). IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE
OVERLAND, THE SYSTEM COULD AGAIN DEVELOP IN RATHER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY, TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A GOOD POLAR
EVACUATION CHANNEL. IN THE LONGER TERM, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
(MAINLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR IN THE NORTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM) SHOULD
LIMIT THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
LATITUDES.

IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR :
BATSIRAI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE FOR THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, WITH A LANDFALL EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BETWEEN MAHANORO AND
MANANJARY AT AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE (MINIMAL STAGE OF VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT), WITH THE
BEGINNING OF RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ON REGIONS
LOCATED SOUTH OF VATOMANDRY. EXTREME AND DESTRUCTIVE GUSTS UP TO 200
TO 250 KM/H ARE LIKELY IN THE IMPACT AREA ON SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED DURING THE CROSSING OF THE ISLAND COULD BE OF THE ORDER OF
100MM IN GENERAL ON THE SOUTHERN HALF, BUT WITH LOCAL AREAS REACHING
300/500MM ON THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL AREA AND ON
NEARBY MOUNTAINOUS CHAINS. THE CYCLONIC SWELL SHOULD REACH HEIGHTS
CLOSE TO 7/8M ON AVERAGE WITH MAXIMA NEAR 15M. A MAXIMUM SURGE OF 1
TO 2 METERS IS LIKELY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL AREA.
POPULATIONS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF LOCAL
AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 041827
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/02/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 039/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 04/02/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 934 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 52.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 400 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 130 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 280 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/05 AT 06 UTC:
20.1 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 325 NM SW: 175 NM NW: 165 NM
34 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 175 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 115 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 65 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/05 AT 18 UTC:
20.6 S / 48.1 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 190 NM SE: 245 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 100 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 55 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 041500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 220204140457
2022020412 08S BATSIRAI 018 02 270 04 SATL SYNP 015
T000 194S 0526E 115 R064 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 095 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 185 SE QD 160 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 198S 0511E 120 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 220 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 202S 0491E 105 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 208S 0468E 060 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 210 SE QD 140 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 216S 0440E 040 R034 080 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 231S 0415E 045 R034 140 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 250S 0407E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 250 SE QD 190 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 278S 0411E 045 R034 180 NE QD 240 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 19.4S 52.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 52.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.8S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.2S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.8S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.6S 44.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.1S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 25.0S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 27.8S 41.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 52.2E.
04FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
285 NM EAST OF ST ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z AND 051500Z.
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0822012318 83S 883E 20
0822012400 88S 890E 20
0822012406 93S 896E 20
0822012412 98S 898E 20
0822012418 103S 901E 25
0822012500 110S 904E 25
0822012506 115S 907E 20
0822012512 122S 909E 20
0822012518 132S 906E 20
0822012600 142S 896E 25
0822012606 144S 881E 30
0822012612 150S 866E 30
0822012618 157S 852E 30
0822012700 164S 837E 35
0822012706 169S 819E 45
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012806 183S 747E 45
0822012812 183S 734E 45
0822012818 183S 724E 50
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020406 194S 530E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
0822020412 194S 526E 115
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 19.4S 52.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 52.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.8S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.2S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.8S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.6S 44.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.1S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 25.0S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 27.8S 41.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 52.2E.
04FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
285 NM EAST OF ST ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z AND 051500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 041237
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 38/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 04/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.4 S / 52.6 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/18 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 934 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 665 SO: 555 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SO: 335 NO: 260
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 90 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 05/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 630 SO: 350 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SO: 230 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75

24H: 05/02/2022 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 535 SO: 270 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SO: 185 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65

36H: 06/02/2022 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 480 SO: 205 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SO: 95 NO: 155

48H: 06/02/2022 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 470 SO: 325 NO: 305

60H: 07/02/2022 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 565 SO: 445 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 315 SO: 240 NO: 230

72H: 07/02/2022 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 600 SO: 455 NO: 400
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 345 SO: 240 NO: 250

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/02/2022 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 595 SO: 500 NO: 455
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 345 SO: 285 NO: 280

120H: 09/02/2022 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 565 SO: 445 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SO: 285 NO: 230

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0

AU COURS DE DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A UN PEU
EVOLUE AVEC UN OEIL DE MIEUX EN MIEUX DEFINI, ET PLUS CIRCULAIRE EN
IMAGES INFRAROUGES, TRADUISANT UNE AMORCE DE REINTENSIFICATION EN
LIEN AVEC LA REPRISE D'UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS FRANC.
DANS CES CIRCONSTANCES, ON PEUT DEFINIR UNE ANALYSE DVORAK EN LEGERE
HAUSSE LAISSANT UNE ESTIMATION DES VENTS MOYENNES SUR 10 MINUTES A
100KT.

BATSIRAI RESTE PRINCIPALEMENT SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE ET A REPRIS UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS FRANC : IL S'ELOIGNE DES
MASCAREIGNES ET SE DEPLACE SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE
DE L'OUEST VERS MADAGASCAR.
UN ATTERRISSAGE EST PREVU SAMEDI DANS L'APRES-MIDI SUR LA COTE
MALGACHE, ENTRE VATOMANDRY ET MANANJARY AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE
D'ENVIRON 100KM SUR LA ZONE D'IMPACT. DIMANCHE, BATSIRAI RESSORTIRA,
AFFAIBLI, DANS LE SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. IL INCURVERA SA
TRAJECTOIRE DANS LES SUD-EST DE L'ILE D'EUROPA, A UNE DISTANCE QUI
RESTE A PRECISER, AVANT D'INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE DAVANTAGE VERS LE
SUD EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE DU FAIT DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET DU
DECALAGE VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LES DIFFERENTES
GUIDANCES SEMBLENT CONFIRMER CE SCENARIO QUI MAINTIENT LE SYSTEME A
L'ECART DES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE.

ACTUELLEMENT, BATSIRAI SE TROUVE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TRES FAVORABLE
JUSQU'A SAMEDI AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET
DE FAIBLES CISAILLEMENTS SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE.
LA REPRISE DE SON DEPLACEMENT PLUS FRANC DEVRAIT LUI PERMETTRE DE
RETROUVER UN BON POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET PERMETTRE UNE NOUVELLE
INTENSIFICATION AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES.
AU COURS DE SON TRAJET VERS MADAGASCAR, LORS DE SA PHASE
D'INTENSIFICATION, UNE NOUVELLE CONTRACTION DE L'OEIL EST POSSIBLE
JUSQU'A L'ATTERISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR POTENTIELLEMENT AU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE (VOIRE AU STADE MINIMUM DE CYCLONE TROPICALE
TRES INTENSE).
DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, APRES UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF
SUITE A SON PASSAGE SUR LES TERRES, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT A NOUVEAU SE
DEVELOPPER DANS DES CONDITIONS ASSEZ FAVORABLES AU MOINS JUSQU'A
LUNDI COMPRIS, BENEFICIANT D'UN BON CANAL D'EVACUATION POLAIRE. A
PLUS LONGUES ECHEANCES, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
(CISAILLEMENT PRINCIPALEMENT, ET PRESENCE D'AIR SEC DANS LE
NORD-OUEST DU SYSTEME ) DEVRAIENT LIMITER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME LORS
DE SA PLONGEE VERS LES LATITUDES SUD.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- MADAGASCAR : BATSIRAI EST UN CYCLONE TRES DANGEREUX POUR LA COTE
EST DE MADAGASCAR, AVEC UN ATTERRISSAGE PREVU SAMEDI ENTRE MAHANORO
ET MANANJARY A UN STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE, (VOIRE AU STADE
MINIMUM DE CYCLONE TROPICAL TRES INTENSE), AVEC UN DEBUT DES IMPACTS
PLUIES ET VENTS POSSIBLE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES SUR LES REGIONS
SITUA ES AU SUD DE VATOMANDRY. LES PLUIES ATTENDUES LORS DE LA
TRAVERSEE DE L'ILE POURRAIENT ETRE DE L'ORDRE DE 100MM EN GENERALE
SUR LA MOITIE SUD, MAIS AVEC DES NOYAUX DE L'ORDRE DE 300/400MM SUR
LES ZONES LITTORALES AU SUD DE LA ZONE D'ATTERRISSAGE ET SUR LA
CHAINE DE L'EST. LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE DEVRAIT ATTEINDRE LA COTE EN
JOURNEE DE VENDREDI ATTEIGNANT DES HAUTEURS PROCHES DES 7/8M EN
HAUTEURS LES PLUS PROBABLES ET DES MAXIMA POUVANT APPROCHER LES 15M.
UNE SURCOTE MAXIMALE DE L'ORDRE DE 1M/1M50 VOIRE DAVANTAGE EST
PROBABLE A PROXIMITE ET AU SUD DE LA ZONE D'ATTERISSAGE. LES
POPULATIONS CONCERNEES SONT INVITEES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DU CYCLONE
AVEC ATTENTION ET SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 041237
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 52.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 934 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 665 SW: 555 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SW: 335 NW: 260
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/05 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 630 SW: 350 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SW: 230 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75

24H: 2022/02/05 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 535 SW: 270 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 185 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2022/02/06 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 46.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 480 SW: 205 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 95 NW: 155

48H: 2022/02/06 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 470 SW: 325 NW: 305

60H: 2022/02/07 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 565 SW: 445 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 230

72H: 2022/02/07 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 600 SW: 455 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 345 SW: 240 NW: 250

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/08 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 595 SW: 500 NW: 455
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 280

120H: 2022/02/09 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 470 SE: 565 SW: 445 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 230

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED A BIT WITH A
BETTER AND BETTER DEFINED EYE, AND MORE CIRCULAR IN INFRARED IMAGES,
TRANSLATING A BEGINNING OF REINTENSIFICATION IN CONNECTION WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF A MORE FRANK MOVEMENT.
IN THESE CIRCUMSTANCES, WE CAN DEFINE A DVORAK ANALYSIS WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE, LEAVING AN ESTIMATE OF THE AVERAGE WINDS OVER 10 MINUTES AT
100KT.

BATSIRAI REMAINS MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND HAS RESUMED A MORE DIRECT MOVEMENT: IT IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
MASCAREIGNES AND IS MOVING ON A TRAJECTORY IN A GENERAL WESTERLY
DIRECTION TOWARDS MADAGASCAR.
A LANDING IS PLANNED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE MALAGASY COAST,
BETWEEN VATOMANDRY AND MANANJARY WITH AN UNCERTAINTY OF ABOUT 100KM
ON THE IMPACT AREA. ON SUNDAY, BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE, WEAKENED, IN THE
SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. IT WILL CURVE ITS TRAJECTORY IN THE
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, AT A DISTANCE TO BE SPECIFIED, BEFORE
CURVING ITS TRAJECTORY MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING AND THE SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE DIFFERENT GUIDELINES SEEM TO CONFIRM THIS
SCENARIO WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE MOZAMBIQUE LAND.

BATSIRAI IS CURRENTLY IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL SATURDAY
WITH A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK SHEARS UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THE RESUMPTION OF ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD ALLOW IT TO REGAIN A GOOD
OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND ALLOW A NEW INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
DURING ITS PATH TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, DURING ITS INTENSIFICATION PHASE,
A NEW CONTRACTION OF THE EYE IS POSSIBLE UNTIL THE LANDING ON
MADAGASCAR POTENTIALLY AT THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE (EVEN
AT THE MINIMUM STAGE OF VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE).
IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FOLLOWING
ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM COULD AGAIN DEVELOP UNDER FAIRLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY, BENEFITING FROM A GOOD
POLAR EVACUATION CHANNEL. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS (MAINLY SHEAR, AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
NORTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM) SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT PLUNGES TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- MADAGASCAR : BATSIRAI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE FOR THE EAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR, WITH A LANDING EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BETWEEN
MAHANORO AND MANANJARY AT A STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, (OR
EVEN AT THE MINIMUM STAGE OF VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE), WITH THE
BEGINNING OF THE IMPACTS RAINS AND WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ON THE REGIONS LOCATED SOUTH OF VATOMANDRY. THE RAIN EXPECTED
DURING THE CROSSING OF THE ISLAND COULD BE OF THE ORDER OF 100MM IN
GENERAL ON THE SOUTHERN HALF, BUT WITH NUCLEI OF THE ORDER OF
300/400MM ON THE LITTORAL ZONES IN THE SOUTH OF THE LANDING ZONE AND
ON THE CHAIN OF THE EAST. THE CYCLONIC SWELL SHOULD REACH THE COAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY REACHING HEIGHTS CLOSE TO 7/8M IN THE MOST
PROBABLE HEIGHTS AND MAXIMA WHICH CAN APPROACH 15M.
A MAXIMUM SURGE OF ABOUT 1M/1M50 OR MORE IS LIKELY NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE LANDING ZONE. THE POPULATIONS CONCERNED ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CYCLONE WITH ATTENTION AND TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 041212
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/02/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 038/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 04/02/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 934 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 52.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 260 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 180
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/05 AT 00 UTC:
19.6 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 340 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 180 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 115 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 60 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/05 AT 12 UTC:
20.3 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND = 115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 290 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 155 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 55 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 040618
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 37/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 04/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.4 S / 53.1 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 665 SO: 555 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SO: 370 NO: 260
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 90 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/02/2022 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 545 SO: 435 NO: 415
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SO: 280 NO: 240
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 05/02/2022 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 555 SO: 350 NO: 435
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SO: 230 NO: 250
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 100 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75

36H: 05/02/2022 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 545 SO: 285 NO: 405
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SO: 130 NO: 130

48H: 06/02/2022 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 655 SO: 380 NO: 435

60H: 06/02/2022 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 675 SO: 425 NO: 435
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 405 SO: 285 NO: 240

72H: 07/02/2022 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 640 SO: 445 NO: 425
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 315 NO: 220

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/02/2022 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 685 SO: 465 NO: 530
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 405 SO: 315 NO: 295

120H: 09/02/2022 06 UTC: 26.7 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 750 SO: 545 NO: 555
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 490 SO: 380 NO: 295

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5+

AU COURS DE DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A PEU
EVOLUE AVEC UN OEIL MAL DEFINI EN IMAGES INFRAROUGES. SUR LES
DERNIERS INSTANTS, IL SEMBLE AVOIR UNE LEGERE AMELIORATION, AVEC UN
OEIL PLUS NET, TRADUISANT PROBABLEMENT UNE AMORCE DE
REINTENSIFICATION EN LIEN AVEC LA REPRISE D'UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS
FRANC. EN EFFET, LES IMAGES RADAR MONTRENT UNE ACCELERATION DANS LE
DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST. DANS CES CIRCONSTANCES, ON PEUT DEFINIR UNE
ANALYSE DVORAK EN LEGERE HAUSSE LAISSANT UNE ESTIMATION DES VENTS
MOYENNES SUR 10 MINUTES A 95KT.

BATSIRAI RESTE PRINCIPALEMENT SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE ET A REPRIS UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS FRANC : IL S'ELOIGNE DES
MASCAREIGNES ET SE DEPLACE SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE
DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST VERS MADAGASCAR. UN ATTERRISSAGE EST PREVU
SAMEDI SUR LA COTE MALGACHE, DANS LA REGION DE MAHANORO AVEC UNE
INCERTITUDE D'ENVIRON 150KM SUR LA ZONE D'IMPACT. LE TIMING RESTE
TOUTEFOIS ENCORE INCERTAIN DU FAIT DE LA RECENTE ACCELERATION.
DIMANCHE, BATSIRAI RESSORTIRA, AFFAIBLI, DANS LE SUD DU CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE. IL PASSERA A PROXIMITE DE L'ILE EUROPA AVANT D'INCURVER
SA TRAJECTOIRE DAVANTAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST VOIRE SUD EN DEBUT DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE DU FAIT DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET DU DECALAGE VERS
L'EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES SEMBLENT
CONFIRMER CE SCENARIO QUI MAINTIENT LE SYSTEME A L'ECART DES TERRES
DU MOZAMBIQUE.

ACTUELLEMENT, BATSIRAI SE TROUVE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TRES FAVORABLE
JUSQU'A SAMEDI AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET
DE FAIBLES CISAILLEMENTS SOUS LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE. CEPENDANT DU
FAIT DE SON DEPLACEMENT LENT AU COURS DE 24 HEURES PRECEDENTS, LE
POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE A BIEN ETE ENTAME. CELA A POUR EFFET DE LIMITER
L'INTENSITE ACTUEL DU SYSTEME. LA REPRISE DE SON DEPLACEMENT PLUS
FRANC DEVRAIT ESTOMPER CETTE PERTE DE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET
PERMETTRE UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12
HEURES. AU COURS DE SON TRAJET VERS MADAGASCAR, LORS DE SA PHASE
D'INTENSIFICATION, UNE NOUVELLE CONTRACTION DE L'OEIL EST POSSIBLE
JUSQU'A L'ATTERISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR POTENTIELLEMENT AU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE.
DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, APRES UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF
SUITE A SON PASSAGE SUR LES TERRES, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT A NOUVEAU SE
DEVELOPPER DANS DES CONDITIONS ASSEZ FAVORABLES AU MOINS JUSQU'A
LUNDI COMPRIS, BENEFICIANT D'UN BON CANAL D'EVACUATION POLAIRE. A
PLUS LONGUES ECHEANCES, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
(CISAILLEMENT PRINCIPALEMENT, ET PRESENCE D'AIR SEC DANS LE
NORD-OUEST DU SYSTEME ) DEVRAIENT LIMITER L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME LORS
DE SA PLONGEE VERS LES LATITUDES SUD.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- LA REUNION : LES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES ENCORE ACTUELLEMENT
PERTURBEES VONT PROGRESSIVEMENT S'AMELIORER AUJOURD'HUI SUR LA
REUNION.
- MADAGASCAR : BATSIRAI EST UN CYCLONE TRES DANGEREUX POUR LA COTE
EST DE MADAGASCAR, AVEC UN ATTERRISSAGE PREVU SAMEDI PRES DE MAHANORO
(SUD DE LA REGION D'ATSINANANA) POTENTIELLEMENT A UN STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE, AVEC UN DEBUT DES IMPACTS PLUIES ET VENTS POSSIBLE
A PARTIR DE VENDREDI APRES-MIDI. LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE DEVRAIT
ATTEINDRE LA COTE EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI ATTEIGNANT DES HAUTEURS
PROCHES DES 8M EN HAUTEURS LES PLUS PROBABLES ET DES MAXIMA POUVANT
APPROCHER LES 15M. UNE SURCOTE MAXIMALE DE L'ORDRE DE 1M/1M50 VOIRE
DAVANTAGE EST PROBABLE A PROXIMITE ET AU SUD DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERISSAGE. LES POPULATIONS CONCERNEES SONT INVITEES A SUIVRE
L'EVOLUTION DU CYCLONE AVEC ATTENTION ET SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES
AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 040618
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/04 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 53.1 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 665 SW: 555 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SW: 370 NW: 260
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/04 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 545 SW: 435 NW: 415
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/05 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 555 SW: 350 NW: 435
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 250
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75

36H: 2022/02/05 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 545 SW: 285 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SW: 130 NW: 130

48H: 2022/02/06 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 655 SW: 380 NW: 435

60H: 2022/02/06 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 675 SW: 425 NW: 435
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 405 SW: 285 NW: 240

72H: 2022/02/07 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 435 SE: 640 SW: 445 NW: 425
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SW: 315 NW: 220

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/08 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 685 SW: 465 NW: 530
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 405 SW: 315 NW: 295

120H: 2022/02/09 06 UTC: 26.7 S / 40.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 480 SE: 750 SW: 545 NW: 555
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 490 SW: 380 NW: 295

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH A
POORLY DEFINED EYE IN INFRARED IMAGES. IN THE LAST FEW MOMENTS, THERE
SEEMS TO BE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT, WITH A SHARPER EYE, PROBABLY
TRANSLATING A BEGINNING OF REINTENSIFICATION IN CONNECTION WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF A MORE FRANK MOVEMENT. INDEED, THE RADAR IMAGES SHOW AN
ACCELERATION IN THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT. IN THESE CIRCUMSTANCES, WE CAN
DEFINE A DVORAK ANALYSIS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE, LEAVING AN ESTIMATE
OF THE AVERAGE WINDS OVER 10 MINUTES AT 95KT.

BATSIRAI REMAINS MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND HAS RESUMED A MORE DIRECT MOVEMENT: IT IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
MASCAREIGNES AND ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. A
LANDING IS PLANNED ON SATURDAY ON THE MALAGASY COAST, IN THE MAHANORO
REGION WITH AN UNCERTAINTY OF ABOUT 150KM ON THE IMPACT AREA. THE
TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE RECENT ACCELERATION. ON SUNDAY,
BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE, WEAKENED, IN THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. IT WILL PASS CLOSE TO EUROPA ISLAND BEFORE BENDING ITS TRACK
MORE TO THE SOUTH-WEST OR EVEN SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
WEAKENING AND EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE VARIOUS
GUIDELINES SEEM TO CONFIRM THIS SCENARIO WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM AWAY
FROM THE LAND OF MOZAMBIQUE.

CURRENTLY, BATSIRAI IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL SATURDAY
WITH NOTABLY A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK SHEARS.
HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF ITS SLOW MOVEMENT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS, THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL HAS BEEN WELL STARTED. THIS HAS THE EFFECT OF
LIMITING THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE RESUMPTION OF ITS
MOVEMENT SHOULD BLUR THIS LOSS OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND ALLOW A NEW
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DURING ITS PATH TOWARDS
MADAGASCAR, DURING ITS INTENSIFICATION PHASE, A NEW CONTRACTION OF
THE EYE IS POSSIBLE UNTIL THE LANDING ON MADAGASCAR POTENTIALLY AT
THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FOLLOWING
ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM COULD AGAIN DEVELOP UNDER FAIRLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY, BENEFITING FROM A GOOD
POLAR EVACUATION CHANNEL. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS (MAINLY SHEAR, AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
NORTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM) SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT PLUNGES TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- REUNION : THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS STILL CURRENTLY DISTURBED
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TODAY ON FRIDAY ON THE REUNION.
- MADAGASCAR : BATSIRAI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE FOR THE EAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR, WITH A LANDFALL EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NEAR
MAHANORO (SOUTH OF ATSINANANA REGION) POTENTIALLY AT A STAGE OF
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH THE BEGINNING OF RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS
POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONIC SWELL SHOULD REACH THE
COAST DURING THE DAY OF FRIDAY REACHING HEIGHTS CLOSE TO 8M IN THE
MOST PROBABLE HEIGHTS AND MAXIMUMS WHICH CAN APPROACH 15M. A MAXIMUM
SURGE OF ABOUT 1M/1M50 OR MORE IS LIKELY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
LANDING ZONE. THE POPULATIONS CONCERNED ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CYCLONE WITH ATTENTION AND TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 040605
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/02/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 037/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 04/02/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 53.1 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
300 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN SECTOR.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 160
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/04 AT 18 UTC:
19.8 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 295 NM SW: 235 NM NW: 225 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 150 NM NW: 130 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 55 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/05 AT 06 UTC:
20.2 S / 49.9 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 300 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 235 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 135 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 60 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 040300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 220204012558
2022020400 08S BATSIRAI 017 01 260 06 SATL 025
T000 194S 0539E 105 R064 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 095 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 195 SE QD 170 SW QD 155 NW QD
T012 196S 0526E 110 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 200S 0510E 110 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 204S 0491E 100 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 180 NW QD
T048 210S 0466E 065 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 225S 0421E 045 R034 140 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 242S 0406E 055 R050 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 266S 0404E 050 R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 19.4S 53.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 53.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.6S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.0S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.4S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.0S 46.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.5S 42.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.2S 40.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.6S 40.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 53.6E.
04FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
103 NM NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041500Z AND 050300Z.
//
0822012318 83S 883E 20
0822012400 88S 890E 20
0822012406 93S 896E 20
0822012412 98S 898E 20
0822012418 103S 901E 25
0822012500 110S 904E 25
0822012506 115S 907E 20
0822012512 122S 909E 20
0822012518 132S 906E 20
0822012600 142S 896E 25
0822012606 144S 881E 30
0822012612 150S 866E 30
0822012618 157S 852E 30
0822012700 164S 837E 35
0822012706 169S 819E 45
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012806 183S 747E 45
0822012812 183S 734E 45
0822012818 183S 724E 50
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020318 193S 545E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
0822020400 194S 539E 105
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 19.4S 53.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 53.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.6S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.0S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.4S 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.0S 46.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.5S 42.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.2S 40.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.6S 40.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 53.6E.
04FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
103 NM NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041500Z AND 050300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 040000
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 36/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 04/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.4 S / 53.6 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 665 SO: 555 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SO: 370 NO: 260
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 90 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/02/2022 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 545 SO: 465 NO: 390
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 305 SO: 295 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 05/02/2022 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 555 SO: 380 NO: 405
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SO: 250 NO: 230
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

36H: 05/02/2022 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 500 SO: 205 NO: 380
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SO: 140 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 65

48H: 06/02/2022 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 185 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 95 NO: 95

60H: 06/02/2022 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 600 SO: 425 NO: 445

72H: 07/02/2022 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 665 SO: 465 NO: 465
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 95 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/02/2022 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 665 SO: 480 NO: 520
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 400 SO: 325 NO: 285
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 35

120H: 09/02/2022 00 UTC: 25.7 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 705 SO: 490 NO: 545
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 455 SO: 350 NO: 295

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5+

AU COURS DE DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A PEU
EVOLUE AVEC UN OEIL MAL DEFINI EN IMAGES INFRAROUGES. SUR LES
DERNIERS INSTANTS, IL SEMBLE AVOIR UNE LEGERE AMELIORATION TRADUISANT
PROBABLEMENT UNE AMORCE DE REINTENSIFICATION EN LIEN AVEC LA REPRISE
D'UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS FRANC. EN EFFET, LES IMAGES RADAR MONTRENT UNE
ACCELERATION DANS LE DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST. DANS CES
CIRCONSTANCES, ON PEUT DEFINIR UNE ANALYSE DVORAK EN LEGERE HAUSSE
LAISSANT UNE ESTIMATION DES VENTS MOYENNES SUR 10 MINUTES A 95KT.

BATSIRAI RESTE PRINCIPALEMENT SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE ET A REPRIS UN DEPLACEMENT PLUS FRANC : IL S'ELOIGNE DES
MASCAREIGNES ET SE DEPLACE SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE
DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST VERS MADAGASCAR. UN ATTERRISSAGE EST PREVU
SAMEDI SUR LA COTE MALGACHE, DANS LA REGION DE MAHANORO AVEC UNE
INCERTITUDE D'ENVIRON 150KM SUR LA ZONE D'IMPACT. LE TIMING RESTE
TOUTEFOIS ENCORE INCERTAIN DU FAIT DE LA RECENTE ACCELERATION.
DIMANCHE, BATSIRAI RESSORTIRA, AFFAIBLI, DANS LE SUD DU CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE. IL PASSERA A PROXIMITE DE L'ILE EUROPA AVANT D'INCURVER
SA TRAJECTOIRE DAVANTAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST VOIRE SUD EN DEBUT DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE DU FAIT DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT ET DU DECALAGE VERS
L'EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LES DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES SEMBLENT
CONFIRMER CE SCENARIO QUI MAINTIENT LE SYSTEME A L'ECART DES TERRES
DU MOZAMBIQUE.

ACTUELLEMENT, BATSIRAI SE TROUVE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TRES FAVORABLE
JUSQU'A SAMEDI AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET
DE FAIBLES CISAILLEMENTS. CEPENDANT DU FAIT DE SON DEPLACEMENT LENT
AU COURS DE 24 HEURES PRECEDENTS, LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE A BIEN ETE
ENTAME. CELA A POUR EFFET DE LIMITER L'INTENSITE ACTUEL DU SYSTEME.
LA REPRISE DE SON DEPLACEMENT PLUS FRANC DEVRAIT ESTOMPER CETTE PERTE
DE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET PERMETTRE UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION AU
COURS DES PROCHAINES 12 HEURES. AU COURS DE SON TRAJET VERS
MADAGASCAR, LORS DE SA PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION, UNE NOUVELLE
CONTRACTION DE L'OEIL EST POSSIBLE JUSQU'A L'ATTERISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR POTENTIELLEMENT AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. DANS
LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, APRES UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF SUITE A
SON PASSAGE SUR LES TERRES, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT A NOUVEAU SE
DEVELOPPER DANS DES CONDITIONS ASSEZ FAVORABLES AU MOINS JUSQU'A
LUNDI. A PLUS LONGUES ECHEANCES, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES
(CISAILLEMENT PRINCIPALEMENT) DEVRAIENT LIMITER L'INTENSITE DU
SYSTEME LORS DE SA PLONGEE VERS LES LATITUDES SUD.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- LA REUNION : LES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES ENCORE ACTUELLEMENT
PERTURBEES VONT PROGRESSIVEMENT S'AMELIORER EN COURS DE JOURNEE DE
VENDREDI SUR LA REUNION.
- MADAGASCAR : BATSIRAI EST UN CYCLONE TRES DANGEREUX POUR LA COTE
EST DE MADAGASCAR, AVEC UN ATTERRISSAGE PREVU SAMEDI PRES DE MAHANORO
(SUD DE LA REGION D'ATSINANANA) POTENTIELLEMENT A UN STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE, AVEC UN DEBUT DES IMPACTS PLUIES ET VENTS POSSIBLE
A PARTIR DE VENDREDI APRES-MIDI. LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE DEVRAIT
ATTEINDRE LA COTE EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI ATTEIGNANT DES HAUTEURS
PROCHES DES 8M EN HAUTEURS LES PLUS PROBABLES ET DES MAXIMA POUVANT
APPROCHER LES 15M. UNE SURCOTE MAXIMALE DE L'ORDRE DE 1M/1M50 VOIRE
DAVANTAGE EST PROBABLE A PROXIMITE ET AU SUD DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERISSAGE. LES POPULATIONS CONCERNEES SONT INVITEES A SUIVRE
L'EVOLUTION DU CYCLONE AVEC ATTENTION ET SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES
AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 040000
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/04 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 53.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 44 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 665 SW: 555 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 335 SW: 370 NW: 260
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/04 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 545 SW: 465 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 305 SW: 295 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/05 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 555 SW: 380 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 230
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

36H: 2022/02/05 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 500 SW: 205 NW: 380
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 280 SW: 140 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 65

48H: 2022/02/06 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 45.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 95

60H: 2022/02/06 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 600 SW: 425 NW: 445

72H: 2022/02/07 00 UTC: 22.3 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 665 SW: 465 NW: 465
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/08 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 665 SW: 480 NW: 520
34 KT NE: 260 SE: 400 SW: 325 NW: 285
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 35

120H: 2022/02/09 00 UTC: 25.7 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 555 SE: 705 SW: 490 NW: 545
34 KT NE: 315 SE: 455 SW: 350 NW: 295

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH A
POORLY DEFINED EYE IN INFRARED IMAGES. IN THE LAST FEW MOMENTS, THERE
SEEMS TO BE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT PROBABLY TRANSLATING A BEGINNING OF
REINTENSIFICATION IN CONNECTION WITH THE RESUMPTION OF A MORE FRANK
MOVEMENT. INDEED, THE RADAR IMAGES SHOW AN ACCELERATION IN THE
WESTWARD MOVEMENT. IN THESE CIRCUMSTANCES, WE CAN DEFINE A DVORAK
ANALYSIS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE, LEAVING AN ESTIMATE OF THE AVERAGE
WINDS OVER 10 MINUTES AT 95KT.

BATSIRAI REMAINS MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND HAS RESUMED A MORE DIRECT MOVEMENT: IT IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
MASCAREIGNES AND ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. A
LANDING IS PLANNED ON SATURDAY ON THE MALAGASY COAST, IN THE MAHANORO
REGION WITH AN UNCERTAINTY OF ABOUT 150KM ON THE IMPACT AREA. THE
TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE RECENT ACCELERATION. ON SUNDAY,
BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE, WEAKENED, IN THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. IT WILL PASS CLOSE TO EUROPA ISLAND BEFORE BENDING ITS TRACK
MORE TO THE SOUTH-WEST OR EVEN SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
WEAKENING AND EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE VARIOUS
GUIDELINES SEEM TO CONFIRM THIS SCENARIO WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM AWAY
FROM THE LAND OF MOZAMBIQUE.

CURRENTLY, BATSIRAI IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL SATURDAY
WITH NOTABLY A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK SHEARS.
HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF ITS SLOW MOVEMENT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS, THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL HAS BEEN WELL STARTED. THIS HAS THE EFFECT OF
LIMITING THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE RESUMPTION OF ITS
MOVEMENT SHOULD BLUR THIS LOSS OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND ALLOW A NEW
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DURING ITS PATH TOWARDS
MADAGASCAR, DURING ITS INTENSIFICATION PHASE, A NEW CONTRACTION OF
THE EYE IS POSSIBLE UNTIL THE LANDING ON MADAGASCAR POTENTIALLY AT
THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL,
AFTER A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE ON THE LANDS, THE
SYSTEM COULD AGAIN DEVELOP IN RATHER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AT LEAST
UNTIL MONDAY. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
(MAINLY SHEAR) SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- REUNION : THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS STILL CURRENTLY DISTURBED
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ON THE REUNION.
- MADAGASCAR : BATSIRAI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE FOR THE EAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR, WITH A LANDFALL EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NEAR
MAHANORO (SOUTH OF ATSINANANA REGION) POTENTIALLY AT A STAGE OF
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH THE BEGINNING OF RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS
POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONIC SWELL SHOULD REACH THE
COAST DURING THE DAY OF FRIDAY REACHING HEIGHTS CLOSE TO 8M IN THE
MOST PROBABLE HEIGHTS AND MAXIMUMS WHICH CAN APPROACH 15M. A MAXIMUM
SURGE OF ABOUT 1M/1M50 OR MORE IS LIKELY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
LANDING ZONE. THE POPULATIONS CONCERNED ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CYCLONE WITH ATTENTION AND TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 032353
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 04/02/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 036/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 04/02/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 53.6 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 110 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 200 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 160
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 360 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/04 AT 12 UTC:
19.6 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 295 NM SW: 250 NM NW: 210 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 120 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/05 AT 00 UTC:
20.0 S / 50.6 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 300 NM SW: 205 NM NW: 220 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 125 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 60 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 031820
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 35/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 03/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.3 S / 54.5 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 942 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 705 SO: 665 NO: 405
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/02/2022 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 585 SO: 470 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 260 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

24H: 04/02/2022 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 585 SO: 445 NO: 350
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SO: 250 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 120
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75

36H: 05/02/2022 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 610 SO: 315 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SO: 185 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 75

48H: 05/02/2022 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 480 SO: 185 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SO: 95 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SO: 0 NO: 30

60H: 06/02/2022 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 465 SO: 470 NO: 315

72H: 06/02/2022 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 535 SO: 545 NO: 370
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 220

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/02/2022 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 640 SO: 520 NO: 470
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 345 SO: 280 NO: 295
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 35

120H: 08/02/2022 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 675 SO: 530 NO: 455
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SO: 260 NO: 280
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SO: 120 NO: 40

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5

AU COURS DE DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN OEIL
S'EST MAINTENUE AVEC UNE EXTENSION DU MUR DE L'OEIL BIEN NOTABLE SUR
LES IMAGES INFRAROUGES. UNE ANALYSE DVORAK MOYENNEE SUR 6 HEURES
FOURNIT UNE VALEUR DE 5.5 COMME AU RESEAU PRECEDENT. LES DONNEES
RADAR DOPPLER DE LA REUNION PERMETTENT D'ESTIMER DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE
DE 100KT A PRES DE 3000M D'ALTITUDE. AINSI BATSIRAI RESISTE BIEN A
SON DEPLACEMENT LENT ET AU CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL :
LES VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES RESTENT DE L'ORDRE DE 90KT, DONC ENCORE AU
SEUIL DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. SUR LES DERNIERS INSTANTS, LE
DEPLACEMENT VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST SEMBLE REPRENDRE AVEC UNE LEGERE
ACCELERATION.

BATSIRAI RESTE PRINCIPALEMENT SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE ET SE DEPLACE SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. APRES UN MOMENT D'HESITATION DU FAIT DE LA
RESISTANCE DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE, BATSIRAI VA AMORCER SON
ACCELERATION EN DIRECTION DE MADAGASCAR. UN ATTERRISSAGE EST PREVU
SAMEDI SUR LA COTE MALGACHE, DANS LA REGION DE MAHANORO AVEC UNE
INCERTITUDE D'ENVIRON 150KM SUR LA ZONE D'IMPACT. LE TIMING RESTE
TOUTEFOIS ENCORE INCERTAIN. DIMANCHE, BATSIRAI RESSORTIRA, AFFAIBLI,
DANS LE SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. IL PASSERA A PROXIMITE DE L'ILE
EUROPA AVANT D'INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE DAVANTAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST
VOIRE SUD EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE DU FAIT DE L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
ET DU DECALAGE VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. SUITE A
L'INCERTITUDE IMPORTANTE SUR CE VIRAGE PLUS OU MOINS MARQUE VERS LE
SUD, LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE PAR LE CMRS MAINTIENT LE SYSTEME A L'ECART
DES TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE, SCENARIO QUI DEVRA ETRE CONFIRME LORS DES
PROCHAINES PREVISIONS.

ACTUELLEMENT, BATSIRAI SE TROUVE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TRES FAVORABLE
JUSQU'A SAMEDI AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET
DE FAIBLES CISAILLEMENTS. LE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL
QUI SE TERMINE AINSI QUE SON LENT DEPLACEMENT ONT UN PEU AFFAIBLI
L'INTENSITE DE BATSIRAI. CEPENDANT, CELUI-CI FAIT DE LA RESISTANCE ET
CONSERVE UNE INTENSITE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AVEC UNE PLUS
GRANDE EXTENSION DES VENTS FORTS EN PERIPHERIE DU CYCLONE. LA REPRISE
DE SON DEPLACEMENT PLUS FRANC DEVRAIT ESTOMPER LA PERTE DE POTENTIEL
OCEANIQUE QUI DEVRAIT COMMENCER A SE FAIRE RESSENTIR. IL FAUT
ATTENDRE UNE ACCELERATION PLUS FRANCHE SUR SON DEPLACEMENT POUR UNE
NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION. AU COURS DE SON TRAJET VERS MADAGASCAR,
LORS DE SA PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION, UNE NOUVELLE CONTRACTION DE
L'OEIL EST POSSIBLE JUSQU'A L'ATTERISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR
POTENTIELLEMENT AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. DANS LE CANAL
DU MOZAMBIQUE, APRES UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF SUITE A SON
PASSAGE SUR LES TERRES, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT A NOUVEAU SE DEVELOPPER
DANS DES CONDITIONS ASSEZ FAVORABLES AU MOINS JUSQU'A LUNDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- LA REUNION : LES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES PERTURBEES SE
POURSUIVENT CETTE NUIT SUR LA REUNION (ALERTE ROUGE CYCLONIQUE EN
COURS). MEME SI LE COEUR DU CYCLONE PASSE A ENVIRON 200 KM, DES
IMPACTS SIGNIFICATIFS SONT ATTENDUS (FORTES PLUIES ET RISQUE
D'INONDATIONS, VENTS VIOLENTS, HOULE).
- MADAGASCAR : BATSIRAI EST UN CYCLONE TRES DANGEREUX POUR LA COTE
EST DE MADAGASCAR, AVEC UN ATTERRISSAGE PREVU SAMEDI PRES DE MAHANORO
(SUD DE LA REGION D'ATSINANANA) POTENTIELLEMENT A UN STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE, AVEC UN DEBUT DES IMPACTS PLUIES ET VENTS POSSIBLE
A PARTIR DE VENDREDI APRES-MIDI. LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE DEVRAIT
ATTEINDRE LA COTE EN JOURNEE DE VENDREDI ATTEINGNANT DES HAUTEURS
PROCHES DES 8M EN HAUTEURS LES PLUS PROBABLES ET DES MAXIMA POUVANT
APPROCHER LES 15M. UNE SURCOTE MAXIMALE DE L'ORDRE DE 1M/1M50 VOIRE
DAVANTAGE EST PROBABLE A PROXIMITE ET AU SUD DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERISSAGE. LES POPULATIONS CONCERNEES SONT INVITEES A SUIVRE
L'EVOLUTION DU CYCLONE AVEC ATTENTION ET SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES
AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 031820
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/03 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 54.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 942 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 705 SW: 665 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/04 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 53.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 585 SW: 470 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 260 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

24H: 2022/02/04 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 585 SW: 445 NW: 350
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 250 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

36H: 2022/02/05 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 610 SW: 315 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 185 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75

48H: 2022/02/05 18 UTC: 20.5 S / 47.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 480 SW: 185 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 95 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 30

60H: 2022/02/06 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 465 SW: 470 NW: 315

72H: 2022/02/06 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 535 SW: 545 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 220

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/07 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 640 SW: 520 NW: 470
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 345 SW: 280 NW: 295
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 35

120H: 2022/02/08 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 445 SE: 675 SW: 530 NW: 455
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 280
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 120 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED
WITH A NOTICEABLE EXTENSION OF THE EYE WALL ON THE INFRARED IMAGES. A
DVORAK ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER 6 HOURS GIVES A VALUE OF 5.5 AS IN THE
PREVIOUS PERIOD. THE DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM REUNION ALLOWS TO
ESTIMATE WINDS OF ABOUT 100KT AT ABOUT 3000M ALTITUDE. THUS BATSIRAI
RESISTS WELL TO ITS SLOW DISPLACEMENT AND TO THE REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF
THE EYE WALL : THE ESTIMATED AVERAGE WINDS REMAIN AROUND 90KT, SO
STILL AT THE THRESHOLD OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ON THE LAST
MOMENTS, THE MOVEMENT TOWARDS WEST-SOUTH-WEST SEEMS TO RESUME WITH A
LIGHT ACCELERATION.

BATSIRAI REMAINS MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND IS MOVING ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. AFTER A MOMENT OF HESITATION
DUE TO THE RESISTANCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, BATSIRAI WILL
START ITS ACCELERATION TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. A LANDING IS PLANNED ON
SATURDAY ON THE MALAGASY COAST, IN THE MAHANORO REGION WITH AN
UNCERTAINTY OF ABOUT 150KM ON THE IMPACT AREA. THE TIMING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ON SUNDAY, BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE, WEAKENED, IN THE SOUTH OF
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. IT WILL PASS CLOSE TO EUROPA ISLAND BEFORE
BENDING ITS TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTH-WEST OR EVEN SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE WEAKENING AND EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AS A RESULT OF THE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS MORE OR
LESS MARKED TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH, THE TRACK FORECAST BY THE RSMC
KEEPS THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE LAND OF MOZAMBIQUE, A SCENARIO THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE CONFIRMED IN THE NEXT FORECASTS.

CURRENTLY, BATSIRAI IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL SATURDAY
WITH NOTABLY A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK SHEARS. THE
REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYEWALL WHICH IS ENDING AND ITS SLOW
DISPLACEMENT HAVE WEAKENED A BIT THE INTENSITY OF BATSIRAI. HOWEVER,
BATSIRAI IS RESISTING AND MAINTAINING AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY WITH A GREATER EXTENSION OF STRONG WINDS TO THE PERIPHERY
OF THE CYCLONE. THE RESUMPTION OF ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD BLUR THE LOSS
OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL THAT SHOULD START TO BE FELT. IT IS NECESSARY TO
WAIT FOR A MORE FRANK ACCELERATION ON ITS DISPLACEMENT FOR A NEW
INTENSIFICATION. DURING ITS PATH TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, DURING ITS
INTENSIFICATION PHASE, A NEW CONTRACTION OF THE EYE IS POSSIBLE UNTIL
THE LANDING ON MADAGASCAR POTENTIALLY AT THE STAGE OF INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER A SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE ON THE LAND, THE SYSTEM COULD AGAIN
DEVELOP IN RATHER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- REUNION : THE DISTURBED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS
NIGHT ON REUNION (CYCLONIC RED ALERT IN PROGRESS). EVEN IF THE HEART
OF THE CYCLONE PASSES AT ABOUT 200 KM, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED (HEAVY RAINS AND RISK OF FLOODING, STRONG WINDS, SWELL).
- MADAGASCAR : BATSIRAI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE FOR THE EAST
COAST OF MADAGASCAR, WITH A LANDFALL EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NEAR
MAHANORO (SOUTH OF ATSINANANA REGION) POTENTIALLY AT A STAGE OF
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH THE BEGINNING OF RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS
POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONIC SWELL SHOULD REACH THE
COAST DURING THE DAY OF FRIDAY REACHING HEIGHTS CLOSE TO 8M IN THE
MOST PROBABLE HEIGHTS AND MAXIMUMS WHICH CAN APPROACH 15M. A MAXIMUM
SURGE OF ABOUT 1M/1M50 OR MORE IS LIKELY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
LANDING ZONE. THE POPULATIONS CONCERNED ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CYCLONE WITH ATTENTION AND TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 031808
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/02/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 035/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 03/02/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 942 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 54.5 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 160 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND
UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 200
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 360 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 380 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/04 AT 06 UTC:
19.6 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 315 NM SW: 255 NM NW: 200 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 120 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 50 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/04 AT 18 UTC:
19.8 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 190 NM SE: 315 NM SW: 240 NM NW: 190 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 115 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 65 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 031500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 220203135809
2022020312 08S BATSIRAI 016 01 255 04 SATL 010
T000 192S 0549E 115 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 193S 0537E 110 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 195S 0524E 105 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 198S 0506E 100 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 180 NW QD
T048 203S 0487E 085 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 216S 0436E 045 R034 140 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 229S 0409E 055 R050 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 247S 0402E 050 R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 19.2S 54.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 54.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.3S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.5S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.8S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.3S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.6S 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 22.9S 40.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.7S 40.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 54.6E.
03FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
81 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 031200Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z AND 041500Z.//
0822012318 83S 883E 20
0822012400 88S 890E 20
0822012406 93S 896E 20
0822012412 98S 898E 20
0822012418 103S 901E 25
0822012500 110S 904E 25
0822012506 115S 907E 20
0822012512 122S 909E 20
0822012518 132S 906E 20
0822012600 142S 896E 25
0822012606 144S 881E 30
0822012612 150S 866E 30
0822012618 157S 852E 30
0822012700 164S 837E 35
0822012706 169S 819E 45
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012806 183S 747E 45
0822012812 183S 734E 45
0822012818 183S 724E 50
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020212 188S 568E 125
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020218 189S 562E 120
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020300 190S 557E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020306 191S 553E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
0822020312 192S 549E 115
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 19.2S 54.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 54.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.3S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.5S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.8S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.3S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.6S 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 22.9S 40.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.7S 40.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 54.6E.
03FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
81 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 031200Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z AND 041500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 031246
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 34/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 03/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 5 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.2 S / 54.9 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 942 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 705 SO: 665 NO: 405
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 04/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 435 SO: 465 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 260 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 04/02/2022 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 530 SO: 455 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SO: 250 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

36H: 05/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 600 SO: 435 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 05/02/2022 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 595 SO: 315 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 325 SO: 185 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 06/02/2022 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 415 SO: 390 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SO: 120 NO: 75

72H: 06/02/2022 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SO: 465 NO: 240

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/02/2022 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 500 SO: 510 NO: 400
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SO: 250 NO: 220

120H: 08/02/2022 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 695 SO: 530 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 435 SO: 295 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SO: 120 NO: 80

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5

DEPUIS CE MATIN, L'OEIL DE BATSIRAI S'EST ELARGI SUITE A UN LENT
PROCESSUS DE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL (ERC), AVEC UN
DIAMETRE DESORMAIS ESTIME A ENVIRON 90KM. LES DERNIERES IMAGES
SATELLITAIRES ET RADAR MONTRENT NEANMOINS QU'UN VESTIGE DE L'OEIL
INTERNE CONTINUE A PERSISTER, MAIS LA CONVECTION DEVIENT NETTEMENT
PLUS MARQUEE DANS LE NOUVEAU MUR DE L'OEIL EXTERNE, COMME LE MONTRE
LA PASSE AMSR2 DE 1033Z. LES DONNEES DOPPLER DU RADAR DU COLORADO
INDIQUENT AUSSI DES VENTS PLUS FORTS DANS LE MUR EXTERNE, SIGNE QU'IL
A DEJA PRIS LE DESSUS. COMME CE MATIN, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN
OEIL EST RESTEE MOINS BIEN DEFINIE QUE LA NUIT DERNIERE. EN RAISON DE
L'ERC EN TRAIN DE SE TERMINER, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME EST DIFFICILE A
ESTIMER ET EST MAINTENUE A 90KT/T5.5, FAISANT UN COMPROMIS ENTRE
L'ANALYSE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK PLUTOT PROCHE DE 4.5+/5.0- ET
D'ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES PLUS ELEVEES (SATCON AU-DESSUS DE 100KT, ADT
VERS 6.0-) ET PRENANT EN COMPTE DES MESURES DOPPLER ENTRE 90 ET 100KT
A 3000M D'ALTITUDE DANS LE MUR EXTERNE. A 12UTC, LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME
SE SITUE A ENVIRON 195KM AU NORD-NORD-OUEST DE LA REUNION.

BATSIRAI RESTE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET SE
DEPLACE SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. SON
MOUVEMENT VA S'ACCELERER AVANT SON ARRIVEE SAMEDI SUR LA COTE
MALGACHE. IL POURRAIT ALORS ATTERRIR DANS LA REGION DE MAHANORO AVEC
UNE INCERTITUDE D'ENVIRON 100KM SUR LA ZONE D'IMPACT. DIMANCHE,
BATSIRAI RESSORTIRA, AFFAIBLI, DANS LE SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE. IL
PASSERA PRES DE L'ILE EUROPA AVANT D'INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE
DAVANTAGE VERS LE SUD-OUEST VOIRE SUD EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE
AVEC LE DECALAGE VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. L'INCERTITUDE
RESTE IMPORTANTE SUR CE VIRAGE PLUS OU MOINS MARQUE VERS LE SUD, DONC
CETTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE MAINTENANT LE SYSTEME A L'ECART DES
TERRES DU MOZAMBIQUE RESTERA A CONFIRMER.

ACTUELLEMENT, BATSIRAI SE TROUVE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TRES FAVORABLE
JUSQU'A SAMEDI AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET
DE FAIBLES CISAILLEMENTS. LE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL
QUI EST EN TRAIN DE SE TERMINER AINSI QUE SON LENT DEPLACEMENT ONT UN
PEU AFFAIBLI L'INTENSITE DE BATSIRAI (MAIS AVEC UNE PLUS GRANDE
EXTENSION DES VENTS FORTS EN PERIPHERIE DU CYCLONE), AVANT UNE
PROBABLE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION ET UNE POSSIBLE NOUVELLE
CONTRACTION DE L'OEIL CES PROCHAINS JOURS JUSQU'A L'ATTERISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR POTENTIELLEMENT AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. DANS
LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, APRES UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF SUITE A
SON PASSAGE SUR LES TERRES, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT A NOUVEAU SE
DEVELOPPER DANS DES CONDITIONS ASSEZ FAVORABLES AU MOINS JUSQU'A
LUNDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- LA REUNION : LES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES PERTURBEES SE
POURSUIVENT CE JEUDI SOIR SUR LA REUNION (ALERTE ROUGE CYCLONIQUE EN
COURS). MEME SI LE COEUR DU CYCLONE PASSE A ENVIRON 200 KM, DES
IMPACTS SIGNIFICATIFS SONT ATTENDUS (FORTES PLUIES ET RISQUE
D'INONDATIONS, VENTS VIOLENTS, HOULE).
- MADAGASCAR : BATSIRAI EST UN CYCLONE TRES DANGEREUX POUR LA COTE
EST DE MADAGASCAR, AVEC UN ATTERRISSAGE PREVU SAMEDI PRES DE MAHANORO
(SUD DE LA REGION D'ATSINANANA) POTENTIELLEMENT A UN STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE, AVEC UN DEBUT DES IMPACTS PLUIES ET VENTS POSSIBLE
A PARTIR DE VENDREDI APRES-MIDI. UNE SURCOTE MAXIMALE DE L'ORDRE DE
1M/1M50 VOIRE DAVANTAGE EST PROBABLE A PROXIMITE ET AU SUD DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERISSAGE. LES POPULATIONS CONCERNEES SONT INVITEES A SUIVRE
L'EVOLUTION DU CYCLONE AVEC ATTENTION ET SUIVRE LES CONSIGNES DES
AUTORITES LOCALES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 031246
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/03 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 5 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 54.9 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 942 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 705 SW: 665 NW: 405
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/04 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 435 SW: 465 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 260 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/04 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 530 SW: 455 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2022/02/05 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 600 SW: 435 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2022/02/05 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 595 SW: 315 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 325 SW: 185 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2022/02/06 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 415 SW: 390 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SW: 120 NW: 75

72H: 2022/02/06 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 465 NW: 240

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/07 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 500 SW: 510 NW: 400
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 220

120H: 2022/02/08 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 695 SW: 530 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 435 SW: 295 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 80

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

BATSIRAI'S EYE HAS BECOME WIDER TODAY AS A RESULT OF A SLOW PROCESS
OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC), WITH A DIAMETER NOW ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 90KM. THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT A REMNANT
INNER EYEWALL CONTINUES TO PERSIST, BUT CONVECTION BECOMES MUCH MORE
PRONOUNCED IN THE NEW OUTER EYEWALL, AS SHOWN IN THE 1033Z AMSR2
PASS. DOPPLER DATA FROM REUNION'S COLORADO RADAR ALSO SHOW STRONGER
WINDS IN THE OUTER EYEWALL, SIGN THAT IT HAS ALREADY TAKEN OVER. LIKE
THIS MORNING, THE CLOUD PATTERN IN THE EYE REMAINED LESS WELL DEFINED
THAN LAST NIGHT. DUE TO THE CURRENT AND ENDING ERC, THE SYSTEM'S
INTENSITY IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE AND IS MAINTAINED AT 90KT/T5.5,
MAKING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS RATHER CLOSE
TO 4.5+/5.0- AND HIGHER OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES (SATCON ABOVE 100KT, ADT
AROUND 6.0-) AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT DOPPLER MEASUREMENTS BETWEEN 90
AND 100KT AT 3000M ABOVE SEA LEVEL IN THE OUTER EYEWALL. AS OF 12UTC,
THE CYCLONE IS CENTERED ABOUT 195KM TO THE NORTH-NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
REUNION ISLAND.

BATSIRAI'S TRACK IS STEERED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TOMORROW BEFORE
ITS LANDFALL ON SATURDAY ON THE MALAGASY COAST. IT COULD MAKE
LANDFALL IN THE MAHANORO AREA WITH A 100KM UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPACT
AREA. ON SUNDAY, BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE AS A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM IN THE
SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. IT WILL TRACK CLOSE TO EUROPA ISLAND
BEFORE CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD THEN PERHAPS SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK
THANKS TO AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE IS STILL
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS MORE OR LESS MARKED TURN TO THE
SOUTH, SO THIS FORECAST OF A TRACK KEEPING THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE
MOZAMBIQUE COAST WILL NEED TO BE CONFIRMED.

BATSIRAI WILL REMAIN IN A VERY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL SATURDAY
WITH VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND WEAK WIND SHEAR. THE REPLACEMENT
CYCLE OF THE EYE WALL WHICH IS ENDING, AS WELL AS ITS SLOW MOVEMENT,
HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE BATSIRAI'S INTENSITY (BUT WITH A GREATER
EXTENSION OF THE STRONG WINDS IN THE CYCLONE'S PERIPHERY), BEFORE A
PROBABLE NEW INTENSIFICATION AND A POSSIBLE NEW CONTRACTION OF THE
EYE UNTIL LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR POTENTIALLY AT THE STAGE OF INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER A SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING DUE TO ITS TRACK OVERLAND, THE SYSTEM COULD RESUME
DEVELOPMENT FROM SUNDAY IN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AT LEAST
UNTIL MONDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- REUNION : DISTURBED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS
THURSDAY EVENING (CYCLONIC RED ALERT IN PROGRESS). EVEN IF THE
CYCLONE'S CORE TRACKS ABOUT 200 KM OFFSHORE, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED (HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING, STRONG WINDS, HIGH SURF).
- MADAGASCAR : BATSIRAI IS A VERY DANGEROUS CYCLONE FOR MADAGASCAR'S
EAST COAST WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NEAR MAHANORO (SOUTH OF
THE ATSINANANA REGION) POTENTIALLY AT A STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE, WITH POSSIBLE BEGINNING OF RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A MAXIMUM STORM SURGE OF 1M/1M50 OR MAYBE MORE IS LIKELY
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL AREA. PEOPLE ARE CLOSELY ADVISED TO
FOLLOW LOCAL AUTHORITIES RECOMMENDATIONS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 031215
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/02/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 034/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 03/02/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 942 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 5 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2 S / 54.9 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND
UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 200
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 360 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 380 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/04 AT 00 UTC:
19.4 S / 53.8 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 235 NM SW: 250 NM NW: 180 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/04 AT 12 UTC:
19.6 S / 52.3 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 190 NM SE: 285 NM SW: 245 NM NW: 165 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 85 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 030712
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 33/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 03/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.0 S / 55.3 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE CINQ DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 942 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 52 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 610 SO: 610 NO: 445
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SO: 240 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 03/02/2022 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 400 SO: 465 NO: 360
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 260 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75

24H: 04/02/2022 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 445 SO: 470 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SO: 250 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 130 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

36H: 04/02/2022 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 555 SO: 435 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SO: 260 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 05/02/2022 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 620 SO: 400 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 350 SO: 260 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 05/02/2022 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 585 SO: 280 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 345 SO: 155 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 45

72H: 06/02/2022 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 455 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/02/2022 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 520 SO: 465 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 335 SO: 250 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 65

120H: 08/02/2022 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 630 SO: 480 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 425 SO: 285 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0;CI=5.5

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LES SIGNES D'UN CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL (ERC) EN COURS SONT CONFIRMES.
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL INTERNE ET LE RENFORCEMENT DU MUR
DE L'OEIL EXTERNE SONT VISIBLES SUR LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE
0022Z ET 0224Z, AINSI QUE SUR L'IMAGERIE RADAR. NEANMOINS LE MUR
INTERNE SEMBLE ENCORE PARTIELLEMENT PRESENT A 06UTC. LA PASSE ASCAT-B
DE 0506Z MONTRE EN EFFET QUE DES VENTS FORTS SONT ENCORE PRESENTS DU
COTE EST DU MUR INTERNE. LE RVM A ETE AUGMENTE A 28MN/52KM (CONTRE
9MN/17KM ESTIMES A 00UTC) POUR TENIR COMPTE DU CHANGEMENT DE
STRUCTURE DE L'OEIL EN COURS MAIS AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE SUR
L'ESTIMATION, ETANT DONNE QU'IL PEUT ENCORE RESTER UN RESIDU DU MUR
DE L'OEIL INTERNE D'ORIGINE. LES DONNEES ASCAT PERMETTENT AUSSI DE
CONFIRMER QUE LE RAYON DE COUP DE VENT ATTEINT L'ILE DE LA REUNION.
AVEC L'ERC EN COURS, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN OEIL S'EST DEGRADEE
AVEC UN DT MOYENNE SUR 3H S'ABAISSANT VERS 5.0. L'INTENSITE EST
ABAISSEE A 90KT ET LA PRESSION CENTRALE UN PEU REMONTEE POUR TENIR
COMPTE DE L'ERC EN COURS ET DE CETTE DEGRADATION DE STRUCTURE DU
COEUR DU SYSTEME, MAIS AVEC UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR L'INTENSITE
REELLE A L'ANALYSE.

BATSIRAI RESTE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE ET SE
DEPLACE SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. SON MOUVEMENT VA S'ACCELERER AVANT SON ARRIVEE
SAMEDI SUR LA COTE MALGACHE. IL POURRAIT ALORS ATTERRIR DANS LA
REGION DE MAHANORO AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE DE D'ENVIRON 100KM SUR LA
ZONE D'IMPACT. DIMANCHE, BATSIRAI RESSORTIRA, AFFAIBLI, DANS LE SUD
DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, PASSANT A PROXIMITE D'EUROPA DANS LA NUIT DE
DIMANCHE A LUNDI. SA TRAJECTOIRE POURRAIT ALORS S'INCURVER DAVANTAGE
VERS LE SUD-OUEST AVEC LE DECALAGE VERS L'EST DE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE, MAIS CELA RESTERA A CONFIRMER.

ACTUELLEMENT, BATSIRAI SE TROUVE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT TRES FAVORABLE
JUSQU'A SAMEDI AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE ET
DE FAIBLES CISAILLEMENTS. LE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL
EN COURS APPORTE UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT TEMPORAIRE ET RELATIF DE
L'INTENSITE DE BATSIRAI (MAIS UNE EXTENSION DU RAYON DES VENTS FORTS
EN PERIPHERIE DU CYCLONE), AVANT UNE PROBABLE NOUVELLE
INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A L'ATTERISSAGE SUR MADAGASCAR. DANS LE CANAL
DU MOZAMBIQUE, APRES UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF APRES SON
PASSAGE SUR LES TERRES, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT A NOUVEAU SE DEVELOPPER
DANS DES CONDITIONS ASSEZ FAVORABLES AU MOINS JUSQU'A LUNDI.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- LA REUNION : LES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES PERTURBEES SE
POURSUIVENT CE JEUDI SUR LA REUNION (ALERTE ROUGE CYCLONIQUE EN
COURS). MEME SI LE COEUR DU CYCLONE PASSE A 200 KM, DES IMPACTS
SIGNIFICATIFS SONT ATTENDUS (FORTES PLUIES, VENTS VIOLENTS, HOULE).
- MADAGASCAR : L'ARRIVEE DU DANGEREUX CYCLONE BATSIRAI EST PREVUE
SAMEDI SUR LA COTE EST, POTENTIELLEMENT A UN STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE, AVEC UN DEBUT DES IMPACTS PLUIES ET VENTS POSSIBLE
A PARTIR DE VENDREDI APRES-MIDI. UNE SURCOTE MAXIMALE DE L'ORDRE DE
1M EST PROBABLE AU SUD DE LA ZONE D'ATTERISSAGE. LES POPULATIONS
CONCERNEES SONT INVITEES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION AVEC
ATTENTION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 030712
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/03 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 55.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 942 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 52 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 405 SE: 610 SW: 610 NW: 445
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/03 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 400 SW: 465 NW: 360
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 260 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75

24H: 2022/02/04 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 445 SW: 470 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

36H: 2022/02/04 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 555 SW: 435 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2022/02/05 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 620 SW: 400 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 350 SW: 260 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2022/02/05 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 585 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 345 SW: 155 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 45

72H: 2022/02/06 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 455 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/07 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 520 SW: 465 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 335 SW: 250 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 65

120H: 2022/02/08 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 455 SE: 630 SW: 480 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 425 SW: 285 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0;CI=5.5

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, EVIDENCE OF AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE (ERC) IS CONFIRMED. THE WEAKENING OF THE INNER EYEWALL AND THE
STRENGTHENING OF AN OUTER EYEWALL ARE VISIBLE IN THE 0022Z AND 0224Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA, AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY. NEVERTHELESS, A
REMNANT INNER EYEWALL STILL SEEMS PARTIALLY PRESENT AT 06UTC. THE
0506Z ASCAT-B PASS INDEED SHOWS THAT STRONG WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE INNER WALL. THE RMW HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
28NM/52KM (COMPARED TO 9NM/17KM ESTIMATED AT 00UTC) TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THE CURRENT CHANGE OF THE EYE'S STRUCTURE BUT WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE ESTIMATION, AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME REMNANTS OF
THE FORMER INNER EYEWALL. ASCAT DATA ALSO CONFIRM THAT THE GALE FORCE
WINDS RADIUS REACHES REUNION ISLAND. WITH THE CURRENT ERC, THE
SYSTEM'S EYE PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED WITH A 3-HOUR AVERAGED
DT DROPPING AROUND 5.0. MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE THUS BEEN LOWERED TO 90KT
AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THE CURRENT ERC AND THE SYSTEM'S INNER CORE DEGRADATION, BUT
WITH AN IMPORTANT UNCERTAINTY ON THE ACTUAL INTENSITY.

BATSIRAI REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS
MOVING ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. ITS MOVEMENT WILL
ACCELERATE BEFORE ITS ARRIVAL ON SATURDAY ON THE MALAGASY COAST. IT
COULD THEN LAND IN THE MAHANORO AREA WITH AN UNCERTAINTY OF ABOUT
100KM ON THE IMPACT AREA. ON SUNDAY, BATSIRAI WILL EMERGE AS A WEAKER
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, TRACKING CLOSE TO EUROPA
ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ITS TRACK COULD THEN CURVE MORE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-WEST WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, BUT THIS
REMAINS TO BE CONFIRMED.

CURRENTLY, BATSIRAI IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL SATURDAY
WITH VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK WIND SHEAR. THE
CURRENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE BRINGS A TEMPORARY AND RELATIVE
WEAKENING OF ITS INTENSITY (BUT A BROADER RADIUS OF STRONG WINDS AT
THE CYCLONE'S PERIPHERY), BEFORE A PROBABLE NEW INTENSIFICATION UNTIL
LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR. IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AFTER A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FOLLOWING ITS OVERLAND TRACK, THE SYSTEM COULD
RESUME GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- REUNION : THE DISTURBED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS
THURSDAY (CYCLONIC RED ALERT IN PROGRESS). EVEN IF THE HEART OF THE
CYCLONE PASSES AT 200 KM, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED (HEAVY
RAINS, STRONG WINDS, SWELL).
- MADAGASCAR : THE DANGEROUS CYCLONE'S LANDFALL IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY ON THE EAST COAST, POTENTIALLY AT A STAGE OF INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH A POSSIBLE BEGINNING OF RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A MAXIMUM SURGE OF ABOUT 1M IS LIKELY SOUTH OF
THE LANDFALL AREA. INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE
SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 030616
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/02/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 033/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 03/02/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 942 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 55.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 220 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 220
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 330 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/03 AT 18 UTC:
19.2 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 215 NM SW: 250 NM NW: 195 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 105 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/04 AT 06 UTC:
19.3 S / 52.9 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 NM SE: 240 NM SW: 255 NM NW: 180 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 50 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 030300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 220203012154
2022020300 08S BATSIRAI 015 01 240 04 SATL 015
T000 191S 0557E 115 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 165 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 193S 0545E 110 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 194S 0533E 105 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 194S 0519E 115 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 180 NW QD
T048 196S 0501E 110 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 206S 0453E 055 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 220S 0408E 050 R050 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 229S 0391E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 19.1S 55.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 55.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.3S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.4S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.4S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.6S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.6S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.0S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.9S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 55.4E.
03FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
87 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z AND 040300Z.
//
0822012318 83S 883E 20
0822012400 88S 890E 20
0822012406 93S 896E 20
0822012412 98S 898E 20
0822012418 103S 901E 25
0822012500 110S 904E 25
0822012506 115S 907E 20
0822012512 122S 909E 20
0822012518 132S 906E 20
0822012600 142S 896E 25
0822012606 144S 881E 30
0822012612 150S 866E 30
0822012618 157S 852E 30
0822012700 164S 837E 35
0822012706 169S 819E 45
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012806 183S 747E 45
0822012812 183S 734E 45
0822012818 183S 724E 50
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020212 189S 567E 125
0822020212 189S 567E 125
0822020212 189S 567E 125
0822020218 189S 561E 120
0822020218 189S 561E 120
0822020218 189S 561E 120
0822020300 191S 557E 115
0822020300 191S 557E 115
0822020300 191S 557E 115
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 19.1S 55.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 55.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.3S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.4S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.4S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.6S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.6S 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.0S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 22.9S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 55.4E.
03FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
87 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z AND 040300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 030054
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 32/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 03/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 5 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.0 S / 55.7 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE CINQ DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 938 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SO: 425 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 260 SO: 335 NO: 280
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 03/02/2022 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 345 SO: 425 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 195 SO: 250 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75

24H: 04/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 415 SO: 455 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SO: 295 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

36H: 04/02/2022 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 415 SO: 405 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SO: 280 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

48H: 05/02/2022 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 545 SO: 390 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SO: 285 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 05/02/2022 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 470 SO: 230 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SO: 165 NO: 65

72H: 06/02/2022 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 400 SO: 325 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SO: 150 NO: 95

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 07/02/2022 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 425 SO: 465 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SO: 250 NO: 140

120H: 08/02/2022 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 535 SO: 465 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SO: 295 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 130 NO: 80

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0+

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL S'EST
MAINTENUE, AVEC UNE NOUVELLE PHASE DE REMPLACEMENT DU CYCLE DE L'OEIL
EN COURS COMME LE MONTRE L'ANIMATION SATELLITE IR, ET LA MICRO-ONDE
GMI DE 1852Z. CETTE SITUATION REND LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET
D'INTENSITE INCERTAINE. LES EXTENSIONS DE VENT ONT ETE REACTUALISEES
SELON LES DONNEES DE LA SMAP DE 1420Z. LES ANALYSES DE DVORAK
MOYENNEES SUR 6 HEURES DONNENT UN DT DE 6.0+, EN ACCORD AVEC LES
ANALYSES OBJECTIVES (SATCON, ADT ET AIDT). EN CONSEQUENCE
L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE EST PORTEE A 105 KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE BATSIRAI : IL RESTE SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, BATSIRAI SE DEPLACE SUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. SUR CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE IL PASSERA AU PLUS PRES DE LA REUNION, DEMAIN MATIN A
ENVIRON 180KM DE L'ILE AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE DE 50KM. LA PRESENCE DES
ILES POURRAIENT EGALEMENT MODIFIER LA TRAJECTOIRE. A PARTIR DE
DEMAIN, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE RENFORCE PAR LE SUD-OUEST
PERMETTANT UNE REPRISE D'UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST VERS LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR. IL POURRAIT ALORS ATTERRIR
DANS LA REGION DE MAHANORO EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE
DE 150KM. DIMANCHE ET LUNDI, BATSIRAI POURRAIT RESSORTIR DANS LE SUD
DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, A PROXIMITE D'EUROPA.

ACTUELLEMENT, BATSIRAI SE TROUVE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUTOT
FAVORABLE JUSQU'A VENDREDI AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD. L'INTENSITE JUSQU'A L'ATTERISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR, SERA DONC PRINCIPALEMENT PILOTEE PAR DES PHENOMENES
INTERNES. EN PARTICULIER, LE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL
S'IL SE CONFIRME DEVRAIT LEGEREMENT AFFAIBLIR DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H
BATSIRAI, AVANT UNE POSSIBLE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A
L'ATTERISSAGE. DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT A
NOUVEAU SE DEVELOPPER DANS DES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES. CETTE PREVISION
RESTE DONC ENCORE ASSEZ INCERTAINE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- LA REUNION : LA DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS METEOROLOGIQUES SE
POURSUIT SUR LA REUNION. MEME SI LE COEUR DU CYCLONE DEVRAIT PASSER A
PLUS DE 150 KM, DES IMPACTS SIGNIFICATIFS SONT A CRAINDRE. DE FORTES
PLUIES SONT A ATTENDRE NOTAMMENT SUR LES RELIEFS. LA REUNION
DEVRAIENT ETRE CONCERNES PAR LES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT, AVEC
DES RAFALES DEPASSANT LES 120KM/H SUR LE LITTORAL. LA HOULE
CYCLONIQUE DEVRAIT EGALEMENT ETRE SENSIBLE ATTEIGNANT 5M. LA SURCOTE
ATTENDUE RESTE FAIBLE DE L'ORDRE DE QUELQUES DIZAINES DE CENTIMETRES.
CES IMPACTS POURRAIENT ETRE RENFORCES PAR LE PROBABLE CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL.

- MADAGASCAR : L'ARRIVEE DU CYCLONE EST PREVUE EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI
SUR LA COTE EST, POTENTIELLEMENT A UN STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL OU
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. AVEC UN DEBUT DES IMPACTS PLUIES ET VENTS
POSSIBLE A PARTIR DE VENDREDI. LES PREMIERES PREVISIONS DE SURCOTE
SUGGERE UNE SURCOTE MAXIMALE DE L'ORDRE DE 1M AU SUD DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERISSAGE.

L'INCERTITUDE QUI DEMEURE SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET
D'INTENSITE D'UN TEL SYSTEME DANGEREUX A PROXIMITE DES TERRES HABITES
DEMANDE LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE. LES POPULATIONS CONCERNEES SONT
INVITEES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION AVEC ATTENTION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 030054
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/03 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 5 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 55.7 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 938 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SW: 425 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 260 SW: 335 NW: 280
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/03 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 345 SW: 425 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 195 SW: 250 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75

24H: 2022/02/04 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 415 SW: 455 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 295 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

36H: 2022/02/04 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 51.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 415 SW: 405 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 280 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

48H: 2022/02/05 00 UTC: 20.0 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 545 SW: 390 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2022/02/05 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 48.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 470 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 285 SW: 165 NW: 65

72H: 2022/02/06 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 400 SW: 325 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 150 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/07 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 425 SW: 465 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 140

120H: 2022/02/08 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 38.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 535 SW: 465 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SW: 295 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 80

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0+


DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED, WITH
A NEW EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) AS SHOWN IN THE LAST INFRA-RED
SATELLITE ANIMATION, AND THE 1852Z GMI MICROWAVE. THIS SITUATION
MAKES TRACK AND INTENSITY PREDICTION UNCERTAIN. THE WIND EXTENSIONS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED ACCORDING TO THE 1420Z SMAP DATA. DVORAK'S 6 HOUR
AVERAGE ANALYSIS GIVES A DT OF 6.0+, IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES (SATCON, ADT AND AIDT). CONSEQUENTLY THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE
IS INCREASED TO 105 KT.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF BATSIRAI : IT REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, BATSIRAI IS MOVING ON A TRAJECTORY IN A
GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. ON THIS TRAJECTORY IT IS CURRENTLY
PASSING CLOSE TO MAURITIUS AT ABOUT 150KM. IT WILL PASS CLOSE TO THE
REUNION, TOMORROW MORNING AT ABOUT 160KM FROM THE ISLAND WITH AN
UNCERTAINTY OF 50KM. THE PRESENCE OF THE ISLANDS COULD ALSO MODIFY
THE TRAJECTORY. FROM TOMORROW, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS BY
THE SOUTH-WEST ALLOWING A RESUMPTION OF A TRAJECTORY IN GENERAL
DIRECTION OF THE WEST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. IT COULD
THEN LAND IN THE AREA OF MAHANORO ON SATURDAY EARLY IN THE DAY WITH
AN UNCERTAINTY OF 150KM. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BATSIRAI COULD EMERGE
IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, CLOSE TO EUROPA.

CURRENTLY, BATSIRAI IS IN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL FRIDAY
WITH A VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
INTENSITY UP TO THE LANDING ON MADAGASCAR WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY
INTERNAL PHENOMENA. IN PARTICULAR, THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IF
CONFIRMED SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BATSIRAI,
BEFORE A POSSIBLE NEW INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDING. IN THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP AGAIN UNDER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. THIS PREDICTION IS THEREFORE STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
- REUNION : THE DEGRADATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
CONTINUES ON REUNION. EVEN IF THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS AT
MORE THAN 150 KM, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE TO BE FEARED. HEAVY RAINS
ARE TO BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ON THE HILLS. REUNION SHOULD BE
CONCERNED BY GALE FORCE WINDS, WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 120KM/H ON THE
COAST. THE CYCLONIC SWELL SHOULD ALSO BE SENSITIVE REACHING 5M. THE
EXPECTED SURGE REMAINS LOW, OF THE ORDER OF A FEW TENS OF
CENTIMETERS. THESE IMPACTS COULD BE REINFORCED BY THE POSSIBLE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.

- MADAGASCAR : THE ARRIVAL OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ON
THE EASTERN COAST, POTENTIALLY AT A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. HEAVY RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS IS POSSIBLE FROM
FRIDAY. THE FIRST FORECASTS OF THE STORM SURGE SUGGEST A MAXIMUM
SURGE AROUND 1M SOUTH OF THE LANDING AREA.

THE UNCERTAINTY THAT REMAINS ON THE FORECAST OF TRAJECTORY AND
INTENSITY OF SUCH A DANGEROUS SYSTEM NEAR INHABITED LANDS REQUIRES
THE UTMOST CAUTION. THE POPULATIONS CONCERNED ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SITUATION WITH ATTENTION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 030011
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 03/02/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 032/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 03/02/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 938 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 5 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0 S / 55.7 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 MIN RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING TO
250 MIN IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 140 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 160
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/03 AT 12 UTC:
19.5 S / 54.5 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 180 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 230 NM NW: 185 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 135 NM NW: 105 NM
48 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/04 AT 00 UTC:
19.5 S / 53.3 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 225 NM SW: 245 NM NW: 175 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 100 NM
48 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 50 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 021913
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 31/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 02/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 5 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.9 S / 56.1 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE SIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SO: 425 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 260 SO: 335 NO: 280
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 03/02/2022 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 345 SO: 425 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 185 SO: 240 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 03/02/2022 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 435 SO: 455 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SO: 285 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75

36H: 04/02/2022 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 480 SO: 455 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SO: 305 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 04/02/2022 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 500 SO: 390 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SO: 280 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 130 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 05/02/2022 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 545 SO: 335 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SO: 260 NO: 0
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 0
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 0

72H: 05/02/2022 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 195 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 150 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 06/02/2022 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 400 SO: 490 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SO: 315 NO: 155

120H: 07/02/2022 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 520 SO: 425 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 360 SO: 305 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 70

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0

AU COURS DES SIX DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL S'EST
MAINTENUE, ET ON A COMMENCE A VOIR UN DEBUT D'ERC SUR LES IMAGES
RADAR ET SUR L'INFRA-ROUGE. LES DERNIERES ANALYSES DVORAK OBJECTIVES
ET SUBJECTIVES OSCILLENT TOUJOURS ENTRE 6.0 ET 6.5. L'IMAGE
MICRO-ONDE SSMIS DE 1511Z AINSI QUE L'IMAGE RADAR MONTRENT DES
ANNEAUX CONCENTRIQUES SE METTANT PROGRESSIVEMENT EN PLACE AUTOUR DU
MUR DE L'OEIL. LES PROBABILITES MPERC DU CIMSS SONT EN NETTE HAUSSE,
PRESAGEANT UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL EN COURS,
AFFAIBLISSANT LEGEREMENT LE MUR INTERNE. EN CONSEQUENCE L'INTENSITE
EST ESTIME A 100 KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE BATSIRAI : IL RESTE SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, BATSIRAI SE DEPLACE SUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. SUR CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE IL PASSERA AU PLUS PRES DE LA REUNION, DEMAIN MATIN A
ENVIRON 180KM DE L'ILE AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE DE 50KM. LA PRESENCE DES
ILES POURRAIENT EGALEMENT MODIFIER LA TRAJECTOIRE. A PARTIR DE
DEMAIN, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE RENFORCE PAR LE SUD-OUEST
PERMETTANT UNE REPRISE D'UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST VERS LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR. IL POURRAIT ALORS ATTERIR
DANS LA REGION DE MAHANORO SAMEDI EN DEBUT DE JOURNEE AVEC UNE
INCERTITUDE DE 150KM. DIMANCHE ET LUNDI, BATSIRAI POURRAIT RESSORTIR
DANS LE SUD DU CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, A PROXIMITE D'EUROPA.

ACTUELLEMENT, BATSIRAI SE TROUVE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUTOT
FAVORABLE JUSQU'A VENDREDI AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD. L'INTENSITE JUSQU'A L'ATTERISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR, SERA DONC PRINCIPALEMENT PILOTEE PAR DES PHENOMENES
INTERNES. EN PARTICULIER, LE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL
S'IL SE CONFIRME DEVRAIT AFFAIBLIR DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H BATSIRAI,
AVANT UNE POSSIBLE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A L'ATTERISSAGE.
DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT A NOUVEAU SE
DEVELOPPER DANS DES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES. CETTE PREVISION RESTE DONC
ENCORE ASSEZ INCERTAINE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- ILE MAURICE ET LA REUNION : LA DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES SE POURSUIT SUR MAURICE ET SUR LA REUNION. MEME SI LE
COEUR DU CYCLONE DEVRAIT PASSER A PLUS DE 100KM DES ILES, DES IMPACTS
SIGNIFICATIFS SONT A CRAINDRE. DE FORTES PLUIES SONT A ATTENDRE
NOTAMMENT SUR LES RELIEFS DES DEUX ILES. LES DEUX ILES DEVRAIENT ETRE
CONCERNES PAR LES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT, AVEC DES RAFALES
DEPASSANT LES 120KM/H SUR LE LITTORAL. LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE DEVRAIT
EGALEMENT ETRE SENSIBLE ATTEIGNANT 5M. LA SURCOTE ATTENDUE RESTE
FAIBLE DE L'ORDRE DE QUELQUES DIZAINES DE CENTIMETRES. CES IMPACTS
POURRAIENT ETRE RENFORCES PAR LE PROBABLE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU
MUR DE L'OEIL.

- MADAGASCAR : L'ARRIVEE DU CYCLONE EST PREVUE EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI
SUR LA COTE EST, POTENTIELLEMENT A UN STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL OU
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. AVEC UN DEBUT DES IMPACTS PLUIES ET VENTS
POSSIBLE A PARTIR DE VENDREDI. LES PREMIERES PREVISIONS DE SURCOTE
SUGGERE UNE SURCOTE MAXIMALE DE L'ORDRE DE 1M AU SUD DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERISSAGE.

L'INCERTITUDE QUI DEMEURE SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET
D'INTENSITE D'UN TEL SYSTEME DANGEREUX A PROXIMITE DES TERRES HABITES
DEMANDE LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE. LES POPULATIONS CONCERNEES SONT
INVITEES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION AVEC ATTENTION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 021913
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/02 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 5 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 56.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SW: 425 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 260 SW: 335 NW: 280
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/03 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 345 SW: 425 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 185 SW: 240 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/03 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 435 SW: 455 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 285 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75

36H: 2022/02/04 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 480 SW: 455 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SW: 305 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2022/02/04 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 500 SW: 390 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2022/02/05 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 545 SW: 335 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 260 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 0

72H: 2022/02/05 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 195 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 150 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/06 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 40.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 400 SW: 490 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SW: 315 NW: 155

120H: 2022/02/07 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 38.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 520 SW: 425 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 360 SW: 305 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

OVER THE LAST HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN HAS BEEN MAINTAINED, AND WE HAVE
STARTED TO SEE THE BEGINNING OF ERC ON THE RADAR AND INFRARED IMAGES.
THE LAST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES ARE STILL BETWEEN
6.0 AND 6.5. THE 1511Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE RADAR IMAGE
DEPICT CONCENTRIC RINGS AROUND THE EYE WALL. THE CIMSS MPERC
PROBABILITIES ARE CLEARLY INCREASING, PRESAGING A ERC IN PROGRESS,
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THE INNER EYEWALL. AS A CONSEQUENCE THE INTENSITY
IS ESTIMATED AT 100 KT.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF BATSIRAI : IT REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, BATSIRAI IS MOVING ON A TRAJECTORY IN A
GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. ON THIS TRAJECTORY IT IS CURRENTLY
PASSING CLOSE TO MAURITIUS AT ABOUT 150KM. IT WILL PASS CLOSE TO THE
REUNION, TOMORROW MORNING AT ABOUT 160KM FROM THE ISLAND WITH AN
UNCERTAINTY OF 50KM. THE PRESENCE OF THE ISLANDS COULD ALSO MODIFY
THE TRAJECTORY. FROM TOMORROW, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS BY
THE SOUTH-WEST ALLOWING A RESUMPTION OF A TRAJECTORY IN GENERAL
DIRECTION OF THE WEST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. IT COULD
THEN LAND IN THE AREA OF MAHANORO ON SATURDAY EARLY IN THE DAY WITH
AN UNCERTAINTY OF 150KM. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BATSIRAI COULD EMERGE
IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, CLOSE TO EUROPA.

CURRENTLY, BATSIRAI IS IN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL FRIDAY
WITH A VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
INTENSITY UP TO THE LANDING ON MADAGASCAR WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY
INTERNAL PHENOMENA. IN PARTICULAR, THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IF
CONFIRMED SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BATSIRAI, BEFORE A
POSSIBLE NEW INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDING. IN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP AGAIN UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
THIS PREDICTION IS THEREFORE STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
- MAURITIUS AND REUNION : THE DETERIORATION OF METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUES ON MAURITIUS AND REUNION. EVEN IF THE CORE OF
THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS MORE THAN 100KM AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS,
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE TO BE FEARED. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGH GROUNDS OF THE TWO ISLANDS. BOTH SHOULD BE
CONCERNED BY GALE FORCE WINDS, WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 120KM/H ON THE
COAST. THE CYCLONIC SWELL SHOULD ALSO BE SENSITIVE REACHING 5M. THE
EXPECTED SURGE REMAINS LOW, OF THE ORDER OF A FEW TENS OF
CENTIMETERS. THESE IMPACTS COULD BE REINFORCED BY THE PROBABLE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.

- MADAGASCAR : THE ARRIVAL OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ON
THE EASTERN COAST, POTENTIALLY AT A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. HEAVY RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS IS POSSIBLE FROM
FRIDAY. THE FIRST FORECASTS OF THE STORM SURGE SUGGEST A MAXIMUM
SURGE AROUND 1M SOUTH OF THE LANDING AREA.

THE UNCERTAINTY THAT REMAINS ON THE FORECAST OF TRAJECTORY AND
INTENSITY OF SUCH A DANGEROUS SYSTEM NEAR INHABITED LANDS REQUIRES
THE UTMOST CAUTION. THE POPULATIONS CONCERNED ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SITUATION WITH ATTENTION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 021830
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/02/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 031/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 02/02/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 5 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 56.1 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 MIN RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING TO
250 MIN IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 140 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 180 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 160
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 190 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/03 AT 06 UTC:
19.4 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 185 NM SW: 230 NM NW: 175 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 100 NM
48 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/03 AT 18 UTC:
19.5 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 NM SE: 235 NM SW: 245 NM NW: 180 NM
34 KT NE: 115 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 105 NM
48 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 021400
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 220202131552
2022020212 08S BATSIRAI 014 01 245 09 SATL RADR SYNP 010
T000 189S 0567E 125 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 105 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 160 SE QD 185 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 194S 0552E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 194S 0541E 110 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 194S 0529E 115 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 180 NW QD
T048 195S 0513E 110 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 201S 0477E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 212S 0431E 050 R050 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 228S 0388E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 18.9S 56.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 56.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.4S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.4S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.4S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.5S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.1S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.2S 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 22.8S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 56.3E.
02FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
80 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z AND 031500Z.//
0822012318 83S 883E 20
0822012400 88S 890E 20
0822012406 93S 896E 20
0822012412 98S 898E 20
0822012418 103S 901E 25
0822012500 110S 904E 25
0822012506 115S 907E 20
0822012512 122S 909E 20
0822012518 132S 906E 20
0822012600 142S 896E 25
0822012606 144S 881E 30
0822012612 150S 866E 30
0822012618 157S 852E 30
0822012700 164S 837E 35
0822012706 169S 819E 45
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012806 183S 747E 45
0822012812 183S 734E 45
0822012818 183S 724E 50
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020212 189S 567E 125
0822020212 189S 567E 125
0822020212 189S 567E 125
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 021400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 18.9S 56.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 56.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.4S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.4S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.4S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.5S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.1S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.2S 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 22.8S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 56.3E.
02FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
80 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z AND 031500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 021500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 220202131552
2022020212 08S BATSIRAI 014 01 245 09 SATL RADR SYNP 010
T000 189S 0567E 125 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 105 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 160 SE QD 185 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 194S 0552E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 194S 0541E 110 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 190 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 194S 0529E 115 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 180 NW QD
T048 195S 0513E 110 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 201S 0477E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 212S 0431E 050 R050 030 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 228S 0388E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 18.9S 56.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 56.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.4S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.4S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.4S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.5S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.1S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.2S 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 22.8S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 56.3E.
02FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
80 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z AND 031500Z.//
0822012318 83S 883E 20
0822012400 88S 890E 20
0822012406 93S 896E 20
0822012412 98S 898E 20
0822012418 103S 901E 25
0822012500 110S 904E 25
0822012506 115S 907E 20
0822012512 122S 909E 20
0822012518 132S 906E 20
0822012600 142S 896E 25
0822012606 144S 881E 30
0822012612 150S 866E 30
0822012618 157S 852E 30
0822012700 164S 837E 35
0822012706 169S 819E 45
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012806 183S 747E 45
0822012812 183S 734E 45
0822012818 183S 724E 50
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020106 168S 610E 85
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020118 175S 591E 95
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020200 181S 583E 120
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020206 185S 576E 125
0822020212 189S 567E 125
0822020212 189S 567E 125
0822020212 189S 567E 125
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 18.9S 56.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 56.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.4S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.4S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.4S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.5S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.1S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.2S 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 22.8S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 56.3E.
02FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
80 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z AND 031500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 021245
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 30/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 02/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 5 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.9 S / 56.7 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE SIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.5/6.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 935 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 105 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SO: 425 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 03/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 360 SO: 350 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SO: 205 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 03/02/2022 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 435 SO: 435 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SO: 260 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 120 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75

36H: 04/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 470 SO: 445 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SO: 270 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65

48H: 04/02/2022 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 425 SO: 370 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SO: 240 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 05/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 510 SO: 325 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 230 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 05/02/2022 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 490 SO: 0 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SO: 0 NO: 0

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 06/02/2022 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SO: 465 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 120

120H: 07/02/2022 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 455 SO: 390 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SO: 230 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 80

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL S'EST
MAINTENUE VOIRE LEGEREMENT AMELIOREE A LA FOIS EN IMAGERIE VISIBLE ET
INFRAROUGE MALGRE UN RECHAUFFEMENT DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX. LES DERNIERES
ANALYSES DVORAK OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES OSCILLENT ENTRE 6.0 ET 6.5.
SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES RADAR DE LA REUNION ET MAURICE, UNE
FAIBLESSE SEMBLE APPARAITRE DANS LE MUR NORD-EST DE BATSIRAI. ON PEUT
EGALEMENT NOTER DES ANNEAUX CONCENTRIQUES SUR CES DONNEES AINSI QUE
LA PASSE AMSR2 DE 0950Z. LES PROBABILITES MPERC DU CIMSS ONT
D'AILLEURS COMMENCE A AUGMENTER. UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL SEMBLE DONC AVOIR DEMARRE ET COMMENCE A AFFAIBLIR LE MUR
INTERNE. EN CONSEQUENCE L'INTENSITE EST ESTIME A 105KT APRES UN PIC
EN COURS DE JOURNEE A 110KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE BATSIRAI : IL RESTE SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, BATSIRAI SE DEPLACE SUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. SUR CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE IL PASSE ACTUELLEMENT AU PLUS PRES DE MAURICE A ENVIRON
150KM. IL PASSERA AU PLUS PRES DE LA REUNION, DEMAIN MATIN A ENVIRON
160KM DE L'ILE AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE DE 50KM. LA PRESENCE DES ILES
POURRAIENT EGALEMENT MODIFIER LA TRAJECTOIRE. A PARTIR DE DEMAIN, LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE RENFORCE PAR LE SUD-OUEST PERMETTANT UNE
REPRISE D'UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST VERS LA
COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR. IL POURRAIT ALORS ATTERIR DANS LA REGION DE
MAHANORO SAMEDI EN DEBUT DE JOURNEE AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE DE 150KM.
DIMANCHE ET LUNDI, BATSIRAI POURRAIT RESSORTIR DANS LE SUD DU CANAL
DU MOZAMBIQUE, A PROXIMITE D'EUROPA.

ACTUELLEMENT, BATSIRAI SE TROUVE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUTOT
FAVORABLE JUSQU'A VENDREDI AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD. L'INTENSITE JUSQU'A L'ATTERISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR, SERA DONC PRINCIPALEMENT PILOTEE PAR DES PHENOMENES
INTERNES. EN PARTICULIER, LE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL
S'IL SE CONFIRME DEVRAIT AFFAIBLIR DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H BATSIRAI,
AVANT UNE POSSIBLE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION JUSQU'A L'ATTERISSAGE.
DANS LE CANAL DU MOZAMBIQUE, LE SYSTEME POURRAIT A NOUVEAU SE
DEVELOPPER DANS DES CONDITIONS FAVORABLES. CETTE PREVISION RESTE DONC
ENCORE ASSEZ INCERTAINE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- ILE MAURICE ET LA REUNION : LA DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES SE POURSUIT SUR MAURICE ET SUR LA REUNION. MEME SI LE
COEUR DU CYCLONE DEVRAIT PASSER A PLUS DE 100KM DES ILES, DES IMPACTS
SIGNIFICATIFS SONT A CRAINDRE. DE FORTES PLUIES SONT A ATTENDRE
NOTAMMENT SUR LES RELIEFS DES DEUX ILES. LES DEUX ILES DEVRAIENT ETRE
CONCERNES PAR LES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT, AVEC DES RAFALES
DEPASSANT LES 120KM/H SUR LE LITTORAL. LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE DEVRAIT
EGALEMENT ETRE SENSIBLE ATTEIGNANT 5M. LA SURCOTE ATTENDUE RESTE
FAIBLE DE L'ORDRE DE QUELQUES DIZAINES DE CENTIMETRES. CES IMPACTS
POURRAIENT ETRE RENFORCES PAR LE PROBABLE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU
MUR DE L'OEIL.

- MADAGASCAR : L'ARRIVEE DU CYCLONE EST PREVUE EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI
SUR LA COTE EST, POTENTIELLEMENT A UN STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL OU
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. AVEC UN DEBUT DES IMPACTS PLUIES ET VENTS
POSSIBLE A PARTIR DE VENDREDI. LES PREMIERES PREVISIONS DE SURCOTE
SUGGERE UNE SURCOTE MAXIMALE DE L'ORDRE DE 1M AU SUD DE LA ZONE
D'ATTERISSAGE.

L'INCERTITUDE QUI DEMEURE SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET
D'INTENSITE D'UN TEL SYSTEME DANGEREUX A PROXIMITE DES TERRES HABITES
DEMANDE LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE. LES POPULATIONS CONCERNEES SONT
INVITEES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION AVEC ATTENTION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 021245
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/02 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 5 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 56.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 935 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SW: 425 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/03 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 360 SW: 350 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/03 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 435 SW: 435 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 260 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75

36H: 2022/02/04 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 470 SW: 445 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 270 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65

48H: 2022/02/04 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 425 SW: 370 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 250 SW: 240 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2022/02/05 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 510 SW: 325 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 230 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2022/02/05 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 490 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/06 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 41.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SW: 465 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 120

120H: 2022/02/07 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 38.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 455 SW: 390 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 80

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5-

DURING THE LAST HOURS, THE EYE CONFIGURATION MAINTAINED, EVEN
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DESPITE A
WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS. THE LAST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSES ARE BETWEEN 6.0 AND 6.5. ON THE LAST RADAR IMAGES OF REUNION
AND MAURITIUS, A WEAKNESS SEEMS TO APPEAR IN THE NORTH-EASTER
EYEWALL. WE CAN ALSO NOTE CONCENTRIC RINGS ON THESE DATA AS WELL AS
IN THE 0950Z AMSR2 PASS. THE CIMSS MPERC PROBABILITIES HAVE STARTED
TO INCREASE. A REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYE WALL SEEMS TO HAVE
STARTED AND TO WEAKEN THE INNER WALL. AS A CONSEQUENCE THE INTENSITY
IS ESTIMATED AT 105KT AFTER A PEAK DURING THE DAY AT 110KT.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF BATSIRAI : IT REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, BATSIRAI IS MOVING ON A TRAJECTORY IN A
GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. ON THIS TRAJECTORY IT IS CURRENTLY
PASSING CLOSE TO MAURITIUS AT ABOUT 150KM. IT WILL PASS CLOSE TO THE
REUNION, TOMORROW MORNING AT ABOUT 160KM FROM THE ISLAND WITH AN
UNCERTAINTY OF 50KM. THE PRESENCE OF THE ISLANDS COULD ALSO MODIFY
THE TRAJECTORY. FROM TOMORROW, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS BY
THE SOUTH-WEST ALLOWING A RESUMPTION OF A TRAJECTORY IN GENERAL
DIRECTION OF THE WEST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. IT COULD
THEN LAND IN THE AREA OF MAHANORO ON SATURDAY EARLY IN THE DAY WITH
AN UNCERTAINTY OF 150KM. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BATSIRAI COULD EMERGE
IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, CLOSE TO EUROPA.

CURRENTLY, BATSIRAI IS IN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL FRIDAY
WITH A VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
INTENSITY UP TO THE LANDING ON MADAGASCAR WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY
INTERNAL PHENOMENA. IN PARTICULAR, THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IF
CONFIRMED SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BATSIRAI, BEFORE A
POSSIBLE NEW INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDING. IN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP AGAIN UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
THIS PREDICTION IS THEREFORE STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
- MAURITIUS AND REUNION : THE DETERIORATION OF METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUES ON MAURITIUS AND REUNION. EVEN IF THE CORE OF
THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS MORE THAN 100KM AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS,
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE TO BE FEARED. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY ON THE HIGH GROUNDS OF THE TWO ISLANDS. BOTH SHOULD BE
CONCERNED BY GALE FORCE WINDS, WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 120KM/H ON THE
COAST. THE CYCLONIC SWELL SHOULD ALSO BE SENSITIVE REACHING 5M. THE
EXPECTED SURGE REMAINS LOW, OF THE ORDER OF A FEW TENS OF
CENTIMETERS. THESE IMPACTS COULD BE REINFORCED BY THE PROBABLE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.

- MADAGASCAR : THE ARRIVAL OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ON
THE EASTERN COAST, POTENTIALLY AT A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. HEAVY RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS IS POSSIBLE FROM
FRIDAY. THE FIRST FORECASTS OF THE STORM SURGE SUGGEST A MAXIMUM
SURGE AROUND 1M SOUTH OF THE LANDING AREA.

THE UNCERTAINTY THAT REMAINS ON THE FORECAST OF TRAJECTORY AND
INTENSITY OF SUCH A DANGEROUS SYSTEM NEAR INHABITED LANDS REQUIRES
THE UTMOST CAUTION. THE POPULATIONS CONCERNED ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SITUATION WITH ATTENTION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 021209
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/02/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 030/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 02/02/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 935 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 5 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 56.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 MIN RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING TO
250 MIN IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 140
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/03 AT 00 UTC:
19.4 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 160 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/03 AT 12 UTC:
19.5 S / 54.2 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 170 NM SE: 235 NM SW: 235 NM NW: 180 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 130 NM SW: 140 NM NW: 110 NM
48 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 45 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 020706
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 29/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 02/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 5 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.5 S / 57.6 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE SEPT DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.5/6.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SO: 425 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 70 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 02/02/2022 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SO: 390 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

24H: 03/02/2022 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 390 SO: 400 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SO: 185 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

36H: 03/02/2022 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SO: 400 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SO: 195 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 04/02/2022 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 405 SO: 405 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 04/02/2022 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 415 SO: 405 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SO: 215 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 05/02/2022 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 425 SO: 415 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 06/02/2022 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 445 SO: 425 NO: 215

120H: 07/02/2022 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 465 SO: 435 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SO: 270 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 70

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.5-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL S'EST
NETTEMENT AMELIOREE A LA FOIS EN IMAGERIE VISIBLE ET INFRAROUGE
MALGRE UN RECHAUFFEMENT DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX. LES DERNIERES ANALYSES
DVORAK OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES OSCILLENT ENTRE 6.0 ET 6.5.
CEPENDANT , UNE PASSE SMAP CE MATIN DONNAIT SEULEMENT 84KT A 0213Z EN
INTENSITE MAXIMALE. EN ATTENDANT DES DONNEES COMPLEMENTAIRES,
L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENUE A 100KT. LES DERNIERES MICRO-ONDES ET LES
IMAGES VISIBLES SEMBLENT EGALEMENT MONTRER LA POSSIBLE FORMATION
D'UNE BANDE CONVECTIVE QUI S'ENROULE AUTOUR DU MUR DE L'OEIL. LES
PROBABILITES MPERC ONT D'AILLEURS COMMENCE A AUGMENTER. UN CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL POURRAIT DONC AVOIR DEMARRE. LA
POSITION DU SYSTEME EST ANALYSEE A PARTIR DES DONNEES RADAR DE LA
REUNION.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE BATSIRAI : IL RESTE SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE DEUX FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES ISSUS DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU NORD-EST. ACTUELLEMENT PLUTOT SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, BATSIRAI SE DEPLACE SUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. SUR CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE IL DEVRAIT PASSER A PROXIMITE DE MAURICE CE SOIR A
ENVIRON 130KM AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE DE 50KM ET DEMAIN MATIN A ENVRION
160KM DE LA REUNION LA AUSSI AVEC UNE INCERTITUDE DE 50KM. LA
PRESENCE DES ILES POURRAIENT MODIFIER LA TRAJECTOIRE. A PARTIR DE
DEMAIN, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE RENFORCE PAR LE SUD-OUEST
PERMETTANT UNE REPRISE D'UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST VERS LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR. IL POURRAIT ALORS ATTERIR
DANS LA REGION DE MAHANORO SAMEDI EN DEBUT DE JOURNEE. DIMANCHE ET
LUNDI, BATSIRAI POURRAIT RESSORTIR DANS LE SUD DU CANAL DU
MOZAMBIQUE.

ACTUELLEMENT, BATSIRAI SE TROUVE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT PLUTOT
FAVORABLE JUSQU'A VENDREDI AVEC NOTAMMENT UNE TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD. L'INTENSITE JUSQU'A L'ATTERISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR, SERA DONC PRINCIPALEMENT PILOTE PAR DES PHENOMENES
INTERNES. EN PARTICULIER, SI UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL ETAIT AVERE, UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DEVRAIT COMMENCER
DANS LES PROCHAINES 24H AVANT UNE POSSIBLE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION
JUSQU'A L'ATTERISSAGE. CETTE PREVISION RESTE DONC ENCORE ASSEZ
INCERTAINE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- ILE MAURICE ET LA REUNION : LA DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES SE POURSUIT SUR MAURICE ET SUR LA REUNION. MEME SI LE
COEUR DU CYCLONE DEVRAIT PASSER A PLUS DE 100KM DES ILES, DES IMPACTS
SIGNIFICATIFS SONT A CRAINDRE. DE FORTES PLUIES SONT A ATTENDRE
NOTAMMENT SUR LES RELIEFS DES DEUX ILES. LES DEUX ILES DEVRAIENT ETRE
CONCERNES PAR LES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT, AVEC DES RAFALES
DEPASSANT LES 110KM/H SUR LE LITTORAL. LA HOULE CYCLONIQUE DEVRAIT
EGALEMENT ETRE SENSIBLE ATTEIGNANT 5M. LA SURCOTE ATTENDUE RESTE
FAIBLE DE L'ORDRE DE QUELQUES DIZAINES DE CENTIMETRES. CES IMPACTS
POURRAIENT ETRE RENFORCES PAR UN POSSIBLE CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU
MUR DE L'OEIL.

- MADAGASCAR : L'ARRIVEE DU CYCLONE EST PREVUE EN JOURNEE DE SAMEDI
SUR LA COTE EST, POTENTIELLEMENT A UN STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL OU
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. AVEC UN DEBUT DES IMPACTS PLUIES ET VENTS
POSSIBLE A PARTIR DE VENDREDI

L'INCERTITUDE QUI DEMEURE SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET
D'INTENSITE D'UN TEL SYSTEME DANGEREUX A PROXIMITE DES TERRES HABITES
DEMANDE LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE. LES POPULATIONS SONT INVITEES A
SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION AVEC ATTENTION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 020706
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/02 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 5 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 57.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SW: 425 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 70 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/02 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 56.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SW: 390 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

24H: 2022/02/03 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 390 SW: 400 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2022/02/03 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SW: 400 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2022/02/04 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 405 SW: 405 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2022/02/04 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 415 SW: 405 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2022/02/05 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 425 SW: 415 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/06 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 43.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 445 SW: 425 NW: 215

120H: 2022/02/07 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 465 SW: 435 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.5-

DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS, THE EYE CONFIGURATION HAS CLEARLY IMPROVED
IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DESPITE A WARMING OF THE CLOUD
TOPS. THE LAST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES ARE BETWEEN
6.0 AND 6.5. HOWEVER, A SMAP PASS THIS MORNING GAVE ONLY 84KT AT
0213Z IN PEAK INTENSITY. PENDING ADDITIONAL DATA, THE INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 100KT. THE LAST MICROWAVES AND VISIBLE IMAGES ALSO SEEM
TO SHOW THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF A CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND
THE EYEWALL. THE MPERC PROBABILITIES HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE. A
REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYEWALL COULD HAVE STARTED. THE POSITION OF
THE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED WITH THE REUNION RADAR DATA.

NO CHANGE ON THE STEERING FLOWS OF BATSIRAI : IT REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF TWO CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS COMING FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND FROM A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
OF MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE IN THE NORTH-EAST. CURRENTLY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, BATSIRAI IS MOVING IN A GENERAL
WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. ON THIS TRAJECTORY IT SHOULD PASS NEAR
MAURITIUS TONIGHT AT ABOUT 130KM WITH AN UNCERTAINTY OF 50KM AND
TOMORROW MORNING AT ABOUT 160KM FROM REUNION AGAIN WITH AN
UNCERTAINTY OF 50KM. THE PRESENCE OF THE ISLANDS COULD MODIFY THE
TRACK. FROM TOMORROW, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS BY THE
SOUTH-WEST ALLOWING A RESUMPTION OF A TRAJECTORY IN GENERAL DIRECTION
OF THE WEST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. IT COULD THEN LAND
IN THE AREA OF MAHANORO ON SATURDAY EARLY IN THE DAY. ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, BATSIRAI COULD EMERGE IN THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.

CURRENTLY, BATSIRAI IS IN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL FRIDAY
WITH A VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INTENSITY
UNTIL LANDING ON MADAGASCAR WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY INTERNAL
PHENOMENA. IN PARTICULAR, IF A REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE EYEWALL IS
ANNOUNCED, A WEAKENING PHASE SHOULD START IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE
A POSSIBLE NEW INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDING. THIS PREDICTION IS
STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- MAURITIUS AND REUNION : THE DEGRADATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUES ON MAURITIUS AND REUNION. EVEN IF THE CORE OF
THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS MORE THAN 100KM FROM THE ISLANDS, SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ARE TO BE FEARED. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ON THE
RELIEFS OF THE TWO ISLANDS. THE TWO ISLANDS SHOULD BE CONCERNED BY
GALE FORCE WINDS, WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 110KM/H ON THE COAST. THE
CYCLONIC SWELL SHOULD ALSO BE SENSITIVE REACHING 5M. THE EXPECTED
SURGE REMAINS LOW, OF THE ORDER OF A FEW TENS OF CENTIMETERS. THESE
IMPACTS COULD BE REINFORCED BY A POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT CYCLE OF THE
EYEWALL.

- MADAGASCAR : THE ARRIVAL OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ON
THE EAST COAST, POTENTIALLY AT A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE STAGE. WITH THE BEGINNING OF THE RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS
POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY

THE UNCERTAINTY THAT REMAINS ON THE FORECAST OF THE TRAJECTORY AND
INTENSITY OF SUCH A DANGEROUS SYSTEM NEAR INHABITED LANDS REQUIRES
THE UTMOST CAUTION. THE POPULATION IS INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SITUATION WITH ATTENTION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 020606
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/02/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 029/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 02/02/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 5 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 57.6 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 MIN RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING TO
250 MIN IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/02 AT 18 UTC:
19.2 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 100 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/03 AT 06 UTC:
19.6 S / 54.6 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 215 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 58.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 58.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.7S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.2S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.4S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.4S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.8S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.7S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 21.6S 41.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 57.9E.
02FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
133 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 020020
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 28/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 02/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.2 S / 58.4 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 940 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 100 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SO: 425 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SO: 150 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 02/02/2022 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SO: 400 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SO: 215 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65

24H: 03/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 360 SO: 360 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 205 SO: 175 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75

36H: 03/02/2022 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 335 SO: 425 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SO: 230 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 110 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 95

48H: 04/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 415 SO: 435 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SO: 250 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 04/02/2022 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 480 SO: 405 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SO: 260 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

72H: 05/02/2022 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 565 SO: 390 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 345 SO: 260 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 06/02/2022 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 465 SO: 465 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SO: 250 NO: 130

120H: 07/02/2022 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 490 SO: 470 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SO: 270 NO: 130

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=6.0

AU COURS DE LA NUIT, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN OEIL A CONTINUER DE
S'AMELIORER, AVEC UN OEIL PLUS CHAUD PERMETTTANT DE MONTER L'ANALYSE
DVORAK MOYENNEE SUR 6 HEURES A 6.0. CELA PERMET D'ESTIMER DES VENTS
DE L'ORDRE DE 100KT. AU COURS DE CETTE PERIODE, SUITE A LA PRESENCE
D'UNE BANDE CONVECTIVE, L'ANALYSE DVORAK A MEME CULMINE A 7.0. LE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE BATSIRAI CONTINUE DONC SA PHASE
D'INTENSIFICATION. SUR LE RADAR DE L'ILE MAURICE, ON OBSERVE AUSSI
TRES BIEN L'OEIL A UN PEU MOINS DE 300KM DES COTES MAURICIENNES AU
NORD-NORD-EST.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE BATSIRAI : IL RESTE SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE DEUX FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES ISSUS DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU NORD-EST. ACTUELLEMENT PLUTOT SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, BATSIRAI SE DEPLACE SUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. MERCREDI ET
JEUDI, IL CIRCULERA AINSI A PROXIMITE NORD DE L'ILE MAURICE ET DE LA
REUNION ALORS QU'UNE FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPO
TRANSITE TEMPORAIREMENT AU SUD. L'AMPLITUDE DE CETTE FAIBLESSE VA
DETERMINER UN RAPPROCHEMENT PLUS OU MOINS MARQUE EN DIRECTION DES
ILES SOEURS. LE SCENARIO DE LA PRESENTE PREVISION DU CMRS EST UNE
TRAJECTOIRE LEGEREMENT PLUS RAPPROCHEE DES ILES SOEURS. A PARTIR DE
JEUDI, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE RENFORCE PAR LE SUD-OUEST
PERMETTANT UNE REPRISE D'UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST VERS LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR.

ACTUELLEMENT, BATSIRAI SE TROUVE DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT UN PEU MOINS
CISAILLE LUI PERMETTANT DE CONTINUER SON INTENSIFICATION LORS DE SON
PASSAGE AU NORD DE L'ILE MAURICE ET DE LA REUNION. PAR LA SUITE, LE
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT LEGEREMENT AUGMENTER ET SOUS L'INFLUENCE DES
CYCLES DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL, L'INTENSITE DE BATSIRAI
POURRAIT VARIER LE LAISSANT OSCILLER ENTRE LE SEUIL DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL ET CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR A ECHEANCE DE SAMEDI. LA FAIBLE PREVISIBILITE DE CES
MECANISMES ENTRETIENT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE.
UNE STRUCTURE DE PLUS EN PLUS LARGE DU CHAMP DE VENT EST ENVISAGEE AU
COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS AGRANDISSSANT SENSIBLEMENT LA ZONE
D'INFLUENCE DU SYSTEME (IMPACTS SIGNIFICATIFS POSSIBLES A DISTANCE).

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- ILE MAURICE ET LA REUNION : LA DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS
METEOROLOGIQUES SE POURSUIT SUR MAURICE ET SUR LA REUNION. SI LE
COEUR DU CYCLONE DEVRAIT PASSER PLUS PRES LORS DE SON PASSAGE AU NORD
DES ILES, DES IMPACTS SIGNIFICATIFS EN PERIPHERIE SONT A CRAINDRE.
CES INTEMPERIES PEUVENT S'ETENDRE JUSQU'A VENDREDI MATIN: LES
PROBABILITES SONT MAINTENANT FORTES QUE LES ILES SOIENT CONCERNEES
PAR DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE VENT (RAFALES A 100-120 KM/H SUR LE
LITTORAL POUVANT DEPASSER LES 150 KM/H SUR LES HAUTS A LA REUNION).
LES CUMULS DE PLUIES VONT ETRE CONSEQUENTS SUR LES ZONES LITTORALES
MAIS BEAUCOUP PLUS IMPORTANTS SUR LE RELIEF DE LA REUNION. UN ETAT DE
MER TRES DEGRADE AVEC DES VAGUES DE PLUS DE 5M EN HAUTEURS MOYENNES
ET UNE ELEVATION ANORMALE DE QUELQUES DIZAINES DE CENTIMETRES DU
NIVEAU DE LA MER, SONT ATTENDUES SUR LES COTES EXPOSEES.
L'INCERTITUDE QUI DEMEURE SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET
D'INTENSITE D'UN TEL SYSTEME PUISSANT A PROXIMITE DES TERRES HABITES
DEMANDE LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE. LES POPULATIONS SONT INVITEES A
SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.

- MADAGASCAR : L'ARRIVEE DU CYCLONE EST PREVUE EN COURS DE WEEK-END
SUR LA COTE EST, POTENTIELLEMENT ENCORE A UN STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL OU CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. AVEC UN DEBUT DES IMPACTS
PLUIES ET VENTS POSSIBLE A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, LES HABITANTS DE CES
REGIONS SONT INVITES AUSSI A SUIVRE LA PROGRESSION DE CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 020020
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/02 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 58.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SW: 425 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/02 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SW: 400 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2022/02/03 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 360 SW: 360 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75

36H: 2022/02/03 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 335 SW: 425 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SW: 230 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 95

48H: 2022/02/04 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 415 SW: 435 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2022/02/04 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 480 SW: 405 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

72H: 2022/02/05 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 565 SW: 390 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 345 SW: 260 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/06 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 46.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 465 SW: 465 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 130

120H: 2022/02/07 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 490 SW: 470 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 130

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

DURING THE NIGHT, THE CLOUD PATTERN IN THE EYE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE,
WITH A WARMER EYE ALLOWING THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DVORAK ANALYSIS TO RISE
TO 6.0. THIS ALLOWS US TO ESTIMATE WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 100KT.
DURING THIS PERIOD, DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A CONVECTIVE BAND, THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS EVEN PEAKED AT 7.0. THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
BATSIRAI CONTINUES ITS INTENSIFICATION PHASE. ON THE RADAR OF
MAURITIUS, THE EYE IS ALSO VERY WELL OBSERVED AT A LITTLE LESS THAN
300KM FROM THE MAURITIAN COASTS IN THE NORTH-NORTH-EAST.

NO CHANGE ON THE STEERING FLOWS OF BATSIRAI : IT REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF TWO CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS COMING FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND FROM A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
OF MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE TO THE NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, BATSIRAI IS MOVING ON A GENERAL
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, IT WILL
CIRCULATE CLOSE TO THE NORTH OF MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND WHILE A
WEAK RIDGE OF MID-TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS TEMPORARILY TO THE
SOUTH. THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS WEAKNESS WILL DETERMINE A MORE OR LESS
MARKED APPROACH TOWARDS THE MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLANDS. THE
SCENARIO OF THE PRESENT RSMC FORECAST IS A SLIGHTLY CLOSER TRACK TO
THE MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLANDS. FROM THURSDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING A RESUMPTION OF A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR.

AT THE MOMENT, BATSIRAI IS IN A SLIGHTLY LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
ALLOWING IT TO CONTINUE ITS INTENSIFICATION DURING ITS PASSAGE NORTH
OF MAURITIUS AND REUNION. THEREAFTER, THE SHEAR SHOULD SLIGHTLY
INCREASE AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLES OF REPLACEMENT OF THE
WALL OF THE EYE, THE INTENSITY OF BATSIRAI COULD VARY LETTING IT
OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE AND INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE ITS LANDING ON MADAGASCAR AT THE TIME OF
SATURDAY. THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THESE MECHANISMS MAINTAINS AN
UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST. A LARGER AND LARGER WIND FIELD
STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SIGNIFICANTLY ENLARGING
THE AREA OF INFLUENCE OF THE SYSTEM (SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT
A DISTANCE).


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND : THE DETERIORATION OF METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS CONTINUES ON MAURITIUS AND REUNION. IF THE HEART OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD PASS CLOSER DURING ITS PASSAGE IN THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE PERIPHERY ARE TO BE FEARED. THESE
BAD WEATHER CAN EXTEND UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING: THE PROBABILITIES ARE
NOW STRONG THAT THE ISLANDS ARE CONCERNED BY GALE FORCE WINDS (GUSTS
AT 100-120 KM/H ON THE COAST BEING ABLE TO EXCEED THE 150 KM/H ON THE
HIGHS IN REUNION). THE CUMULATED RAINFALL WILL BE CONSEQUENT ON THE
COASTAL AREAS BUT MUCH MORE IMPORTANT ON THE RELIEF OF THE REUNION. A
VERY DEGRADED SEA STATE WITH WAVES OF MORE THAN 5M IN AVERAGE HEIGHT
AND AN ABNORMAL RISE OF SOME TENS OF CENTIMETERS OF THE SEA LEVEL,
ARE EXPECTED ON THE EXPOSED COASTS.
THE UNCERTAINTY THAT REMAINS ON THE PREDICTION OF THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF SUCH A POWERFUL SYSTEM NEAR INHABITED LANDS REQUIRES THE
UTMOST CAUTION. THE POPULATION IS INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SITUATION.

- MADAGASCAR : THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND
ON THE EAST COAST, POTENTIALLY STILL AT A STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
OR INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. WITH THE BEGINNING OF THE RAIN AND WIND
IMPACTS POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY, THE INHABITANTS OF THESE REGIONS ARE
ALSO INVITED TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 020001
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 02/02/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 02/02/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 940 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 58.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 MIN RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING TO
200 MIN IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/100 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 115
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 230 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/02 AT 12 UTC:
19.0 S / 56.8 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 215 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 90 NM
48 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/03 AT 00 UTC:
19.5 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND = 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 170 NM
34 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 110 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 105 NM
48 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
64 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 011843
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 27/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 01/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.7 S / 59.0 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 945 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 90 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SO: 315 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 02/02/2022 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 380 SO: 360 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SO: 205 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 02/02/2022 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SO: 345 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 205 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65

36H: 03/02/2022 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SO: 390 NO: 345
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SO: 195 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75

48H: 03/02/2022 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 425 SO: 425 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SO: 260 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

60H: 04/02/2022 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 465 SO: 390 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

72H: 04/02/2022 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 555 SO: 380 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SO: 280 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 05/02/2022 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 470 SO: 195 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SO: 140 NO: 0

120H: 06/02/2022 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 400 SO: 445 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SO: 250 NO: 130

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN OEIL
S'EST AMELIOREE. AVEC DES SOMMETS ET UN COEUR QUI SONT TRES FROIDS,
UNE ANALYSE DVORAK MOYENNEE SUR 6 HEURES DE 5.5 PEUT ETRE FAITE ET
PERMET D'ESTIMER DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 90KT. BATSIRAI PASSE DONC LE
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE A 18UTC. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1729UTC
PERMET UNE BONNE REPRESENTATION DES EXTENSIONS DE VENT QUE LES
OBSERVATIONS DE SAINT BRANDON VALIDENT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LES FLUX DIRECTEURS DE BATSIRAI : IL RESTE SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE DEUX FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES ISSUS DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE
DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU NORD-EST. ACTUELLEMENT PLUTOT SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, BATSIRAI SE DEPLACE SUR UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST. MERCREDI ET
JEUDI, IL CIRCULERA AINSI A PROXIMITE NORD DE L'ILE MAURICE ET DE LA
REUNION ALORS QU'UNE FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPO
TRANSITE TEMPORAIREMENT AU SUD. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE SE RENFORCE PAR LE SUD-OUEST PERMETTANT UNE REPRISE
D'UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST VERS LA COTE EST
DE MADAGASCAR MAIS AVEC UN TIMING UN PEU RETARDE PAR RAPPORT A LA
PREVISION CMRS PRECEDENTE.

A COURTE ECHEANCE, BATSIRAI VA SE TROUVER DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT UN
PEU MOINS CISAILLE LUI PERMETTANT DE S'INTENSIFIER LORS DE SON
PASSAGE AU NORD DE L'ILE MAURICE ET DE LA REUNION. PAR LA SUITE, LE
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT LEGEREMENT AUGMENTER ET SOUS L'INFLUENCE DES
CYCLES DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL, L'INTENSITE DE BATSIRAI
POURRAIT VARIER LE LAISSANT OSCILLER ENTRE LE SEUIL DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL ET CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE AVANT SON ATTERRISSAGE SUR
MADAGASCAR A ECHEANCE DE SAMEDI. LA FAIBLE PREVISIBILITE DE CES
MECANISMES ENTRETIENT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE.
UNE STRUCTURE DE PLUS EN PLUS LARGE DU CHAMP DE VENT EST ENVISAGEE AU
COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS AGRANDISSSANT SENSIBLEMENT LA ZONE
D'INFLUENCE DU SYSTEME (IMPACTS SIGNIFICATIFS POSSIBLES A DISTANCE).

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- ILE MAURICE ET LA REUNION : UNE DEGRADATION SE MET PROGRESSIVEMENT
EN PLACE SUR MAURICE PUIS SUR LA REUNION EN COURS DE NUIT. SI LE
COEUR DU CYCLONE DEVRAIT PASSER PLUS AU NORD DES ILES, DES IMPACTS
SIGNIFICATIFS EN PERIPHERIE SONT A CRAINDRE. CES INTEMPERIES PEUVENT
S'ETENDRE JUSQU'A VENDREDI MATIN: LES PROBABILITES SONT MAINTENANT
FORTES QUE LES ILES SOIENT CONCERNEES PAR DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE
VENT (RAFALES A 100-120 KM/H SUR LE LITTORAL POUVANT DEPASSER LES 150
KM/H SUR LES HAUTS A LA REUNION). LES CUMULS DE PLUIES PEUVENT
LOCALEMENT DEPASSER LES 100 MM EN 24H SUR MAURICE ET LES ZONES
LITTORALES DE LA REUNION. DES CUMULS PLUS BEAUCOUP PLUS IMPORTANTS
SONT ATTENDUES SUR LE RELIEF DE LA REUNION (+500/600 MM EN 24H
POSSIBLES). UN ETAT DE MER TRES DEGRADE AVEC DES VAGUES DE PLUS DE 5M
EN HAUTEURS MOYENNES ET UNE ELEVATION ANORMALE DE QUELQUES DIZAINES
DE CENTIMETRES DU NIVEAU DE LA MER, SONT ATTENDUES SUR LES COTES
EXPOSEES.
L'INCERTITUDE QUI DEMEURE SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE ET
D'INTENSITE D'UN TEL SYSTEME PUISSANT A PROXIMITE DES TERRES HABITES
DEMANDE LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE. LES POPULATIONS SONT INVITEES A
SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.

- MADAGASCAR : ARRIVEE DU CYCLONE PREVUE EN COURS DE WEEK-END SUR LA
COTE EST, POTENTIELLEMENT ENCORE A UN STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL OU
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. AVEC UN DEBUT DES IMPACTS PLUIES ET VENTS
POSSIBLE A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, LES HABITANTS DE CES REGIONS SONT
INVITES AUSSI A SUIVRE LA PROGRESSION DE CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 011843
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/01 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 59.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/02 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 380 SW: 360 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2022/02/02 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 56.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 380 SW: 345 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

36H: 2022/02/03 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 335 SW: 390 NW: 345
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

48H: 2022/02/03 18 UTC: 19.6 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 425 SW: 425 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 260 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2022/02/04 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 465 SW: 390 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

72H: 2022/02/04 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 555 SW: 380 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 280 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/05 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 470 SW: 195 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SW: 140 NW: 0

120H: 2022/02/06 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 42.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 400 SW: 445 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 130

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN IN THE EYE HAS IMPROVED.
WITH VERY COLD TOPS AND CORE, A 6 HOUR AVERAGE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 5.5
CAN BE DONE AND ALLOWS TO ESTIMATE WINDS IN THE 90KT RANGE. BATSIRAI
PASSES THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT 18UTC. THE ASCAT
SWATH OF 1729UTC ALLOWS A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF THE WIND EXTENSIONS
THAT THE OBSERVATIONS OF SAINT BRANDON VALIDATE.

NO CHANGE ON THE STEERING FLOWS OF BATSIRAI : IT REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF TWO CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS COMING FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND FROM A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
OF MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE TO THE NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, BATSIRAI IS MOVING ON A GENERAL
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, IT WILL
CIRCULATE CLOSE TO THE NORTH OF MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND WHILE A
WEAK RIDGE OF MID-TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS TEMPORARILY TO THE
SOUTH. FROM THURSDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALLOWING A RESUMPTION OF A GENERAL WESTWARD TRAJECTORY
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY DELAYED
TIMING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RSMC FORECAST.

IN THE SHORT TERM, BATSIRAI WILL BE IN A LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
ALLOWING IT TO INTENSIFY WHILE PASSING NORTH OF MAURITIUS AND REUNION
ISLAND. THEREAFTER, THE SHEAR SHOULD SLIGHTLY INCREASE AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLES OF REPLACEMENT OF THE WALL OF THE EYE, THE
INTENSITY OF BATSIRAI COULD VARY LETTING IT OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE
THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE AND INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE ITS
LANDING ON MADAGASCAR AT THE TIME OF SATURDAY. THE LOW PREDICTABILITY
OF THESE MECHANISMS MAINTAINS AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. A LARGER AND LARGER WIND FIELD STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, SIGNIFICANTLY ENLARGING THE AREA OF INFLUENCE OF THE
SYSTEM (SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT A DISTANCE).


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND : A DEGRADATION IS PROGRESSIVELY SET
UP ON MAURITIUS THEN ON REUNION ISLAND DURING THE NIGHT.IF THE EYE OF
THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS MORE IN THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS, SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN PERIPHERY ARE TO BE FEARED. THESE BAD WEATHER CAN EXTEND
UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING: THE PROBABILITIES ARE NOW STRONG THAT THE
ISLANDS ARE CONCERNED BY GALE FORCE WINDS (GUSTS AT 100-120 KM/H ON
THE COAST BEING ABLE TO EXCEED THE 150 KM/H ON THE HIGHS IN REUNION).
THE CUMULATED RAINFALL CAN LOCALLY EXCEED 100 MM IN 24H ON MAURITIUS
AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF REUNION. CUMULATED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH MORE IMPORTANT ON THE RELIEF OF REUNION (+500/600 MM IN 24H
POSSIBLE). A VERY DEGRADED SEA STATE WITH WAVES OF MORE THAN 5M IN
AVERAGE HEIGHT AND AN ABNORMAL RISE OF SOME TENS OF CENTIMETERS OF
THE SEA LEVEL, ARE EXPECTED ON THE EXPOSED COASTS.
THE UNCERTAINTY THAT REMAINS ON THE PREDICTION OF THE TRAJECTORY AND
INTENSITY OF SUCH A POWERFUL SYSTEM NEAR INHABITED LANDS REQUIRES THE
UTMOST CAUTION. THE POPULATION IS INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SITUATION.

- MADAGASCAR : THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND
ON THE EAST COAST, POTENTIALLY STILL AT A STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
OR INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. WITH THE BEGINNING OF THE RAIN AND WIND
IMPACTS POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY, THE INHABITANTS OF THESE REGIONS ARE
ALSO INVITED TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO22 FMEE 011801
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/02/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 027/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 01/02/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 59.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 MIN RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING TO
200 MIN IN THE NORTH-WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/02 AT 06 UTC:
18.5 S / 57.4 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 125 NM
34 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/02 AT 18 UTC:
19.0 S / 56.0 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 155 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 011500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 220201132944
2022020112 08S BATSIRAI 012 01 250 10 SATL 025
T000 172S 0601E 090 R064 015 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 179S 0583E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 184S 0567E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 170 SE QD 180 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 188S 0553E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 190 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 191S 0540E 105 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 200 SW QD 180 NW QD
T072 193S 0515E 110 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 201S 0484E 090 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T120 210S 0442E 055 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 17.2S 60.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 60.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.9S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.4S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.8S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.1S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.3S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.1S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.0S 44.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 59.7E.
01FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
236 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 020300Z AND 021500Z.//
0822012318 83S 883E 20
0822012400 88S 890E 20
0822012406 93S 896E 20
0822012412 98S 898E 20
0822012418 103S 901E 25
0822012500 110S 904E 25
0822012506 115S 907E 20
0822012512 122S 909E 20
0822012518 132S 906E 20
0822012600 142S 896E 25
0822012606 144S 881E 30
0822012612 150S 866E 30
0822012618 157S 852E 30
0822012700 164S 837E 35
0822012706 169S 819E 45
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012806 183S 747E 45
0822012812 183S 734E 45
0822012818 183S 724E 50
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020100 164S 623E 80
0822020106 169S 611E 85
0822020106 169S 611E 85
0822020106 169S 611E 85
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
0822020112 172S 601E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 17.2S 60.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 60.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.9S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.4S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.8S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.1S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.3S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.1S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 21.0S 44.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 59.7E.
01FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
236 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 020300Z AND 021500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 011235
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 26/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 01/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.2 S / 60.2 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 963 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SO: 315 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 165 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 80 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 02/02/2022 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SO: 360 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 215 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

24H: 02/02/2022 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SO: 335 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SO: 195 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 03/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 345 SO: 250 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65

48H: 03/02/2022 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 345 SO: 415 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SO: 230 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 04/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 455 SO: 425 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 260 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 04/02/2022 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 415 SO: 360 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 250 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 05/02/2022 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 465 SO: 230 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 155 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SO: 35 NO: 45

120H: 06/02/2022 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0

APRES UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT LA NUIT DERNIERE, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE
DE BATSIRAI S'EST AMELIORE, PRESENTANT A NOUVEAU UN OEIL SUR LES
DERNIA RE MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 0026Z, ET AMSR2 PARTIEL DE 0907Z,
AINSI QUE SUR L'ANIMATION SATELLITE EN CANAL VISIBLE.L'ACCELERATION
DU SYSTEME A AFFAIBLI L'IMPACT DU CISAILLEMENT SUR LE
SYSTEME,(CISAILLEMENT QUI A EGALEMENT FAIBLI PAR AILLEUR), PERMETTANT
UNE NOUVELLE PHASE D'INTENSIFICATION.

BATSIRAI EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE DEUX FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES
ISSUS DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU NORD-EST. AUJOURD'HUI, AVEC LE
DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD DU SYSTEME ET LE MAINTIEN
DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST, IL DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER
SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST SUD-OUEST A
SUD-OUEST. MERCREDI ET JEUDI, IL CIRCULERA AINSI A PROXIMITE NORD DE
L'ILE MAURICE ET DE LA REUNION ALORS QU'UNE FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE
DE MOYENNE TROPO TRANSITE TEMPORAIREMENT AU SUD. A PARTIR DE JEUDI,
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE RENFORCE PAR LE SUD-OUEST ET LA DORSALE
PROCHE EQUATORIALE S'ESTOMPE, PERMETTANT UNE REPRISE D'UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST VERS LA COTE EST DE
MADAGASCAR.

ALORS QUE LE CIMSS ANALYSE DESORMAIS UN CISAILLEMENT PROFOND DE
SECTEUR EST AYANT CONTINUA A FAIBLIR A 17 KT (06Z) ET UNE VITESSE DU
SYSTEME AYANT AUGMENTEE, LA STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME S'EST AMELIOREE EN
MATINA E AVEC L'APPARITION D'UN OEIL EN VISIBLE EN DEBUT DE MATINA E.
CELUI PRESENTE ENCORE UN CARACTERE DECHIQUETA . CETTE CONTRAINTE
DEVRAIT RESTER ENCORE PRESENTE POUR LES PROCHAINES 24H, MAIS AVEC UN
IMPACT PLUS LIMITA E, DU FAIT DE LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU
SYSTEME.
TOUTEFOIS SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE, LE SYSTEME SE RAPPROCHE DE L'AXE
DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE CE QUI, COMBINE A D'AUTRES PARAMETRES
ENVIRONNEMENTAUX TRES FAVORABLES, DEVRAIT FAVORISER UNE
RE-INTENSIFICATION PLUS FRANCHE, POSSIBLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. PAR LA SUITE LES CONDITIONS POURRAIENT
RESTER FAVORABLES JUSQU'A L'ARRIVEE SUR MADAGASCAR. DES FLUCTUATIONS
D'INTENSITE EN LIEN AVEC UN OU DES CYCLES DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL SONT ALORS PROBABLES. LA FAIBLE PREVISIBILITE DE CES
MECANISMES ENTRETIENT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE.
UNE STRUCTURE DE PLUS EN PLUS LARGE DU CHAMP DE VENT EST ENVISAGEE
AU COURS DES PROCHAINS (EN POSSIBLE LIEN AVEC UN PREMIER CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL) AGRANDISSSANT SENSIBLEMENT LA ZONE
D'INFLUENCE DU SYSTEME (IMPACTS SIGNIFICATIFS POSSIBLES A DISTANCE)

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- ILE MAURICE ET LA REUNION : UNE DEGRADATION DEVRAIT SE METTRE EN
PLACE SUR MAURICE PUIS LA REUNION A PARTIR DE MARDI SOIR. SI LE COEUR
DU CYCLONE DEVRAIT PASSER PLUS AU NORD DES ILES, DES IMPACTS
SIGNIFICATIFS EN PERIPHERIE SONT A CRAINDRE. CES INTEMPERIES PEUVENT
S'ETENDRE JUSQU'A VENDREDI MATIN: LES PROBABILITES SONT MAINTENANT
FORTES QUE LES ILES SOIENT CONCERNEES PAR DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE
VENT (RAFALES A 100-120 KM/H SUR LE LITTORAL POUVANT DEPASSER LES 150
KM/H SUR LES HAUTS A LA REUNION). IL EST IMPORTANT DE NOTER QU'IL Y A
20-30% DE CHANCE DE CONNAITRE DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE (SCENARIO DU
PIRE PROBABLE AVEC 130-150 KM/H EN RAFALE GENERALISEES, SUPERIEURES A
150 KM/H POSSIBLES SUR LES HAUTS HABITES DE LA REUNION NOTAMMENT).
LES CUMULS DE PLUIES PEUVENT LOCALEMENT DEPASSER LES 100 MM EN 24H
SUR MAURICE ET LES ZONES LITTORALES DE LA REUNION. DES CUMULS PLUS
BEAUCOUP PLUS IMPORTANTS SONT ATTENDUES SUR LE RELIEF DE LA REUNION
(+500/600 MM EN 24H POSSIBLES). UN ETAT DE MER TRES DEGRADE AVEC DES
VAGUES DE PLUS DE 5M EN HAUTEURS MOYENNES ET UNE ELEVATION ANORMALE
DE QUELQUES DIZAINES DE CENTIMETRES DU NIVEAU DE LA MER, SONT
ATTENDUES SUR LES COTES EXPOSEES.
CES PREVISIONS DEMANDENT ENCORE A ETRE CONFIRMEES ET LES POPULATIONS
SONT INVITEES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.

- MADAGASCAR : ARRIVEE DU CYCLONE PREVUE EN TOUTE FIN DE SEMAINE SUR
LA COTE EST, POTENTIELLEMENT ENCORE A UN STADE DANGEREUX. PROBABILITE
D'IMPACT EN HAUSSE POUR LA REGION CENTRE EST (EN PREMIERE ESTIMATION
LARGE, ENTRE L'ILE SAINTE-MARIE AU NORD ET FARAFANGANA AU SUD). AVEC
UN DEBUT DES IMPACTS PLUIES ET VENTS POSSIBLE A PARTIR DE VENDREDI,
LES HABITANTS DE CES REGIONS SONT INVITES AUSSI A SUIVRE LA
PROGRESSION DE CE SYSTEME. ET=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 011235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/2/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/01 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 60.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 963 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/02 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SW: 360 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2022/02/02 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 295 SW: 335 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 195 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2022/02/03 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 345 SW: 250 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

48H: 2022/02/03 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 345 SW: 415 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 230 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2022/02/04 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 52.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 455 SW: 425 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2022/02/04 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 415 SW: 360 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/05 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 49.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 465 SW: 230 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 45

120H: 2022/02/06 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 44.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

AFTER A WEAKENING LAST NIGHT, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF BATSIRAI HAS
IMPROVED, PRESENTING AGAIN AN EYE ON THE LAST MICROWAVE SSMIS OF
0026Z, AND PARTIAL AMSR2 OF 0907Z, AS WELL AS ON THE SATELLITE
ANIMATION IN VISIBLE CHANNEL.THE ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS
WEAKENED THE IMPACT OF THE SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM,(SHEAR WHICH HAS ALSO
WEAKENED BY THE WAY), ALLOWING A NEW PHASE OF INTENSIFICATION.



BATSIRAI IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TWO CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS
COMING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TODAY, WITH THE SHIFT OF THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE MAINTENANCE
OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE EQUATOR TO THE NORTHEAST, IT
SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY. ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, IT WILL CIRCULATE CLOSE TO THE NORTH OF
MAURITIUS AND REUNION WHILE A WEAK RIDGE OF MID-TROPICAL PRESSURE
TRANSITS TEMPORARILY TO THE SOUTH. FROM THURSDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE WILL FADE, ALLOWING A RESUMPTION OF A GENERAL WESTERLY TRACK
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR.

WHILE THE CIMSS IS NOW ANALYZING A DEEP EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AT 17 KT (06Z) AND A SPEED OF THE SYSTEM THAT HAS
INCREASED, THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED IN THE MORNING
WITH THE APPEARANCE OF A VISIBLE EYE IN THE EARLY MORNING. THIS ONE
STILL PRESENTS A SHREDDED CHARACTERTHIS CONSTRAINT SHOULD STILL BE
PRESENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT WITH A MORE LIMITED IMPACT,
BECAUSE OF THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE AXIS OF
THE RIDGE OF HIGH ALTITUDE WHICH, COMBINED WITH OTHER VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS, SHOULD FAVOR A MORE DEFINITE
RE-INTENSIFICATION, POSSIBLY TO THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN FAVORABLE UNTIL THE
ARRIVAL OVER MADAGASCAR. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY RELATED TO ONE OR
MORE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE THEN LIKELY. THE LOW
PREDICTABILITY OF THESE MECHANISMS MAINTAINS AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE
INTENSITY PREDICTION.
A LARGER AND LARGER STRUCTURE OF THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT FEW YEARS (POSSIBLY LINKED TO A FIRST CYCLE OF EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT) SIGNIFICANTLY ENLARGING THE SYSTEM'S ZONE OF INFLUENCE
(SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT A DISTANCE)

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- MAURITIUS AND REUNION : A DEGRADATION SHOULD SET UP ON MAURITIUS
THEN REUNION FROM TUESDAY EVENING. IF THE HEART OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD
PASS MORE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE PERIPHERY
ARE TO BE FEARED. THESE BAD WEATHER CAN EXTEND UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING:
THE PROBABILITIES ARE NOW STRONG THAT THE ISLANDS ARE CONCERNED BY
WINDS OF GALE FORCE (GUSTS TO 100-120 KM/H ON THE COAST BEING ABLE TO
EXCEED 150 KM/H ON THE INHABITED HIGHS IN PARTICULAR IN REUNION). IT
IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE TO HAVE STORM
FORCE WINDS (WORST CASE SCENARIO WITH 130-150 KM/H GUSTS, ABOVE 150
KM/H POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHLANDS OF REUNION IN PARTICULAR). THE
CUMULATED RAINFALL CAN LOCALLY EXCEED 100 MM IN 24H ON MAURITIUS AND
THE COASTAL AREAS OF REUNION. MUCH MORE IMPORTANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE RELIEF OF REUNION (+500/600 MM IN 24H POSSIBLE). A
VERY DEGRADED SEA STATE WITH WAVES OF MORE THAN 5M IN AVERAGE HEIGHT
AND AN ABNORMAL RISE OF SOME TENS OF CENTIMETERS OF THE SEA LEVEL,
ARE EXPECTED ON THE EXPOSED COASTS.
THESE FORECASTS STILL NEED TO BE CONFIRMED AND PEOPLE ARE INVITED TO
FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SITUATION.

- MADAGASCAR : CYCLONE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE WEEK ON
THE EAST COAST, POTENTIALLY STILL AT A DANGEROUS STAGE. THE
PROBABILITY OF IMPACT IS INCREASING FOR THE CENTRAL EASTERN REGION
(IN A FIRST LARGE ESTIMATION, BETWEEN SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND IN THE
NORTH AND FARAFANGANA IN THE SOUTH). WITH A POSSIBLE BEGINNING OF
RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS FROM FRIDAY, THE INHABITANTS OF THESE REGIONS
ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 011204
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/02/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 026/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 01/02/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 963 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 60.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 MIN RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING TO
130 MIN IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT, 220 NM IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT AND
TO 400 MIN IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 75 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/02 AT 00 UTC:
18.0 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 115 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/02 AT 12 UTC:
18.5 S / 57.0 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 145 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 130 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 80 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 010632
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 01/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.0 S / 61.2 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES ZERO SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 964 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 295 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SO: 70 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 01/02/2022 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 370 SO: 345 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 02/02/2022 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SO: 345 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SO: 195 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

36H: 02/02/2022 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SO: 325 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 185 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55

48H: 03/02/2022 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 360 SO: 415 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 65

60H: 03/02/2022 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 465 SO: 405 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SO: 260 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 04/02/2022 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 415 SO: 335 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SO: 230 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 05/02/2022 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 510 SO: 315 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SO: 230 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55

120H: 06/02/2022 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SO: 150 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SO: 100 NO: 65

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0-

APRES UN AFFAIBLISEEMENT LA NUIT DENIERE, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE
DE BATSIRAI S'EST AMELIORE, PRESENTANT A NOUVEAU UN OEIL SUR LES
DERNIA RE MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 0026Z.
L'ACCELERATION DU SYSTEME A AFFAIBLI L'IMPACT DU CISAILLEMENT SUR LE
SYSTEME, PERMETTANT UNE NOUVELLE INTENSIFICATION.

BATSIRAI EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE DEUX FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES
ISSUS DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU NORD-EST. AUJOURD'HUI, AVEC LE
DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD DU SYSTEME ET LE MAINTIEN
DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST, IL DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER
SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST A
SUD-OUEST. MERCREDI ET JEUDI, IL CIRCULERA AINSI A PROXIMITE NORD DE
L'ILE MAURICE ET DE LA REUNION ALORS QU'UNE FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE
DE MOYENNE TROPO TRANSITE TEMPORAIREMENT AU SUD. A PARTIR DE JEUDI,
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE RENFORCE PAR LE SUD-OUEST ET LA DORSALE
PROCHE EQUATORIALE S'ESTOMPE, PERMETTANT UNE REPRISE D'UNE
TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST VERS LA COTE EST DE
MADAGASCAR.

ALORS QUE LE CIMSS ANALYSE DESORMAIS UN CISAILLEMENT PROFOND DE
SECTEUR EST AYANT UN PEU FAIBLI A 20 KT (00Z) ET UNE VITESSE DU
SYSTEME AYANT AUGMENTEE, LA STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME S'EST AMELIOREE
DURANT LES DERNIERE HEURES. CETTE CONTRAINTE DEVRAIT RESTEE ENCORE
PRESENTE POUR LES PROCHAINES 24 A 36H, MAIS AVEC UN IMPACT PLUS
LIMITA E, DU FAIT DE LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT DU SYSTEME.
TOUTEFOIS SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE, LE SYSTEME SE RAPPROCHE DE L'AXE
DE LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE CE QUI, COMBINE A D'AUTRES PARAMETRES
ENVIRONNEMENTAUX TRES FAVORABLES, DEVRAIT FAVORISER UNE
RE-INTENSIFICATION PLUS FRANCHE, POSSIBLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. PAR LA SUITE LES CONDITIONS POURRAIENT
RESTER FAVORABLES JUSQU'A L'ARRIVEE SUR MADAGASCAR. DES FLUCTUATIONS
D'INTENSITE EN LIEN AVEC UN OU DES CYCLES DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL SONT ALORS PROBABLES. LA FAIBLE PREVISIBILITE DE CES
MECANISMES ENTRETIENT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE.
UNE STRUCTURE DE PLUS EN PLUS LARGE DU CHAMP DE VENT EST ENVISAGEE
AU COURS DES PROCHAINS (EN POSSIBLE LIEN AVEC UN PREMIER CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL) AGRANDISSSANT SENSIBLEMENT LA ZONE
D'INFLUENCE DU SYSTEME (IMPACTS SIGNIFICATIFS POSSIBLES A DISTANCE)

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- ILE MAURICE ET LA REUNION : UNE DEGRADATION DEVRAIT SE METTRE EN
PLACE SUR MAURICE PUIS LA REUNION A PARTIR DE MARDI SOIR. SI LE COEUR
DU CYCLONE DEVRAIT PASSER PLUS AU NORD DES ILES, DES IMPACTS
SIGNIFICATIFS EN PERIPHERIE SONT A CRAINDRE. CES INTEMPERIES PEUVENT
S'ETENDRE JUSQU'A VENDREDI MATIN: LES PROBABILITES SONT MAINTENANT
FORTES QUE LES ILES SOIENT CONCERNEES PAR DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE
VENT (RAFALES A 90-110 KM/H SUR LE LITTORAL POUVANT DEPASSER LES 120
KM/H SUR LES HAUTS HABITES NOTAMMENT A LA REUNION). IL EST IMPORTANT
DE NOTER QU'IL Y A 20-30% DE CHANCE DE CONNAITRE DES VENTS DE FORCE
TEMPETE (SCENARIO DU PIRE PROBABLE AVEC 120-130 KM/H EN RAFALE
GENERALISEES, 150 KM/H POSSIBLES SUR LES HAUTS HABITES DE LA REUNION
NOTAMMENT). LES CUMULS DE PLUIES PEUVENT LOCALEMENT DEPASSER LES 100
MM EN 24H SUR MAURICE ET LES ZONES LITTORALES DE LA REUNION. DES
CUMULS PLUS BEAUCOUP PLUS IMPORTANTS SONT ATTENDUES SUR LE RELIEF DE
LA REUNION (+500/600 MM EN 24H POSSIBLES). UN ETAT DE MER TRES
DEGRADE AVEC DES VAGUES DE PLUS DE 5M EN HAUTEURS MOYENNES ET UNE
ELEVATION ANORMALE DE QUELQUES DIZAINES DE CENTIMETRES DU NIVEAU DE
LA MER, SONT ATTENDUES SUR LES COTES EXPOSEES.
CES PREVISIONS DEMANDENT ENCORE A ETRE CONFIRMEES ET LES POPULATIONS
SONT INVITEES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.

- MADAGASCAR : ARRIVEE DU CYCLONE PREVUE EN TOUTE FIN DE SEMAINE SUR
LA COTE EST, POTENTIELLEMENT ENCORE A UN STADE DANGEREUX. PROBABILITE
D'IMPACT EN HAUSSE POUR LA REGION CENTRE EST (EN PREMIERE ESTIMATION
LARGE, ENTRE L'ILE SAINTE-MARIE AU NORD ET FARAFANGANA AU SUD). AVEC
UN DEBUT DES IMPACTS PLUIES ET VENTS POSSIBLE A PARTIR DE VENDREDI,
LES HABITANTS DE CES REGIONS SONT INVITES AUSSI A SUIVRE LA
PROGRESSION DE CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 010632
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/2/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/01 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 61.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 295 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/01 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 370 SW: 345 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2022/02/02 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 345 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2022/02/02 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SW: 325 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55

48H: 2022/02/03 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 360 SW: 415 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

60H: 2022/02/03 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 465 SW: 405 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2022/02/04 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 415 SW: 335 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/05 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 510 SW: 315 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2022/02/06 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SW: 100 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

AFTER A WEAKENING LAST NIGHT, THE BATSIRAI CLOUD PATTERN HAS
IMPROVED, PRESENTING AGAIN AN EYE ON THE LAST MICROWAVE SSMIS OF
0026Z.
THE ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED THE IMPACT OF THE SHEAR
ON THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING A NEW INTENSIFICATION.

BATSIRAI IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TWO CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS
COMING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TODAY, WITH THE SHIFT OF THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE MAINTENANCE
OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE EQUATOR TO THE NORTHEAST, IT
SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY. ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, IT WILL CIRCULATE CLOSE TO THE NORTH OF
MAURITIUS AND REUNION WHILE A WEAK RIDGE OF MID-TROPICAL PRESSURE
TRANSITS TEMPORARILY TO THE SOUTH. FROM THURSDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE WILL FADE, ALLOWING A RESUMPTION OF A GENERAL WESTERLY TRACK
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR.

WHILE THE CIMSS IS NOW ANALYZING A DEEP EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS
WEAKENED A BIT AT 20 KT (00Z) AND A SPEED OF THE SYSTEM THAT HAS
INCREASED, THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED DURING THE LAST
HOURS. THIS CONSTRAINT SHOULD STILL BE PRESENT FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS, BUT WITH A MORE LIMITED IMPACT, BECAUSE OF THE SPEED OF
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE AXIS OF
THE RIDGE OF HIGH ALTITUDE WHICH, COMBINED WITH OTHER VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS, SHOULD FAVOR A MORE DEFINITE
RE-INTENSIFICATION, POSSIBLY TO THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN FAVORABLE UNTIL THE
ARRIVAL OVER MADAGASCAR. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY RELATED TO ONE OR
MORE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE THEN LIKELY. THE LOW
PREDICTABILITY OF THESE MECHANISMS MAINTAINS AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE
INTENSITY PREDICTION.
A LARGER AND LARGER STRUCTURE OF THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT FEW YEARS (POSSIBLY LINKED TO A FIRST CYCLE OF EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT) SIGNIFICANTLY ENLARGING THE SYSTEM'S ZONE OF INFLUENCE
(SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT A DISTANCE)

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- MAURITIUS AND REUNION : A DEGRADATION SHOULD SET UP ON MAURITIUS
THEN REUNION FROM TUESDAY EVENING. IF THE HEART OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD
PASS MORE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE PERIPHERY
ARE TO BE FEARED. THESE BAD WEATHER CAN EXTEND UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING:
THE PROBABILITIES ARE NOW STRONG THAT THE ISLANDS ARE CONCERNED BY
WINDS OF GALE FORCE (GUSTS TO 90-110 KM/H ON THE COAST BEING ABLE TO
EXCEED 120 KM/H ON THE INHABITED HIGHS IN PARTICULAR IN REUNION). IT
IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE TO HAVE STORM
FORCE WINDS (WORST CASE SCENARIO WITH 120-130 KM/H GUSTS, 150 KM/H
POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHLANDS OF REUNION IN PARTICULAR). THE CUMULATED
RAINFALL CAN LOCALLY EXCEED 100 MM IN 24H ON MAURITIUS AND THE
COASTAL AREAS OF REUNION. MUCH MORE IMPORTANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE RELIEF OF REUNION (+500/600 MM IN 24H POSSIBLE). A
VERY DEGRADED SEA STATE WITH WAVES OF MORE THAN 5M IN AVERAGE HEIGHT
AND AN ABNORMAL RISE OF SOME TENS OF CENTIMETERS OF THE SEA LEVEL,
ARE EXPECTED ON THE EXPOSED COASTS.
THESE FORECASTS STILL NEED TO BE CONFIRMED AND PEOPLE ARE INVITED TO
FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SITUATION.

- MADAGASCAR : CYCLONE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE WEEK ON
THE EAST COAST, POTENTIALLY STILL AT A DANGEROUS STAGE. THE
PROBABILITY OF IMPACT IS INCREASING FOR THE CENTRAL EASTERN REGION
(IN A FIRST LARGE ESTIMATION, BETWEEN SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND IN THE
NORTH AND FARAFANGANA IN THE SOUTH). WITH A POSSIBLE BEGINNING OF
RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS FROM FRIDAY, THE INHABITANTS OF THESE REGIONS
ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 010603
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/02/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 025/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 01/02/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 964 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 61.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 MIN RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING TO
200 MIN IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS AND TO 350 MIN IN THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/01 AT 18 UTC:
17.6 S / 59.8 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/02 AT 06 UTC:
18.3 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 165 NM SW: 185 NM NW: 120 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 75 NM
48 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 010300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 220201012528
2022020100 08S BATSIRAI 011 01 235 07 SATL 060
T000 164S 0623E 075 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 085 SE QD 110 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 173S 0608E 070 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 180S 0590E 070 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 185S 0572E 075 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 170 SE QD 180 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 189S 0557E 090 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 190 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 190S 0533E 105 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 180 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 193S 0507E 110 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 194S 0481E 090 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 16.4S 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 62.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.3S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.0S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.5S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.9S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.0S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.3S 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.4S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 61.9E.
01FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
361 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z.
//
0822012318 83S 883E 20
0822012400 88S 890E 20
0822012406 93S 896E 20
0822012412 98S 898E 20
0822012418 103S 901E 25
0822012500 110S 904E 25
0822012506 115S 907E 20
0822012512 122S 909E 20
0822012518 132S 906E 20
0822012600 142S 896E 25
0822012606 144S 881E 30
0822012612 150S 866E 30
0822012618 157S 852E 30
0822012700 164S 837E 35
0822012706 169S 819E 45
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012806 183S 747E 45
0822012812 183S 734E 45
0822012818 183S 724E 50
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013106 159S 638E 85
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013112 159S 632E 80
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822013118 160S 629E 75
0822020100 164S 623E 75
0822020100 164S 623E 75
0822020100 164S 623E 75
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 16.4S 62.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 62.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.3S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.0S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.5S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.9S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.0S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.3S 50.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.4S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 61.9E.
01FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
361 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011500Z AND 020300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 010045
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 01/02/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.6 S / 62.5 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 295 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 45 SO: 60 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SO: 45 NO: 45

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 01/02/2022 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SO: 335 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SO: 175 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 02/02/2022 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SO: 360 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 205 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 02/02/2022 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 315 SO: 345 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SO: 205 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65

48H: 03/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SO: 280 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 195 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65

60H: 03/02/2022 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 335 SO: 425 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 205 SO: 230 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75

72H: 04/02/2022 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SO: 405 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 230 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 05/02/2022 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 465 SO: 345 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SO: 240 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

120H: 06/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SO: 140 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 95 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 ET CI=4.5-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE BATSIRAI A CONTINUE DE PRESENTER DES
SIGNES DE SOUFFRANCE UNE BONNE PARTIE DE LA NUIT. L'IMAGERIE
MICRO-ONDES GPM ET AMSR2 MONTRENT QUE LE COEUR CENTRAL EST FORTEMENT
ERODE COTE SUD-EST SOUS LA CONTRAINTE DU CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST.
LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES, DE PLUS EN PLUS
DISPERSEES, PLAIDENT TOUTEFOIS POUR UN MAINTIEN AU STADE MINIMAL DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL (ESTIMATION POSSIBLEMENT UN PEU FORTE). A NOTER QUE
LES DERNIERES IMAGES SEMBLENT MONTRER LA CONSTITUTION D'UNE VIRGULE
FROIDE ET UN MEILLEUR EPANCHEMENT DES CIRRUS VERS L'EXTERIEUR DE LA
CIRCULATION DANS LE SECTEUR EST (POSSIBLE DEBUT DE BAISSE DE L'IMPACT
DU CISAILLEMENT).

BATSIRAI EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE DEUX FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES
ISSUS DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU NORD-EST. AUJOURD'HUI, AVEC LE
DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD DU SYSTEME ET LE MAINTIEN
DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST, IL DEVRAIT SE DEPLACER
SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST A
SUD-OUEST. MERCREDI ET JEUDI, IL CIRCULERA AINSI A PROXIMITE NORD DE
L'ILE MAURICE ET DE LA REUNION TOUT EN RALENTISSANT ALORS QU'UNE
FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPO TRANSITE TEMPORAIREMENT AU
SUD. A PARTIR DE JEUDI, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE RENFORCE PAR LE
SUD-OUEST ET LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE S'ESTOMPE, PERMETTANT UNE
REPRISE D'UNE TRAJECTOIRE UN PEU PLUS RAPIDE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST VERS LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR. LA DERNIERE PREVISION DE
TRAJECTOIRE EST UN PEU PLUS SUD QUE LES PRECEDENTES POUR TENIR COMPTE
DE LA TENDANCE PERSISTANTE DES RUNS DE AROME A FAIRE CIRCULER PLUS AU
SUD LE PHENOMENE.

ALORS QUE LE CIMSS ANALYSE DESORMAIS UN CISAILLEMENT PROFOND DE
SECTEUR EST QUI APPROCHE LES 25 KT (18Z) ET QUE LE SYSTEME A
SENSIBLEMENT RALENTIT, UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT PLUS MARQUE QUE
PREVU S'EST MISE EN PLACE. CE CISAILLEMENT POURRAIT ENCORE CONTRARIER
AUJOURD'HUI UNE REPRISE SIGNIFICATIVE DE L'INTENSIFICATION. TOUTEFOIS
SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE, LE SYSTEME SE RAPPROCHE DE L'AXE DE LA
DORSALE D'ALTITUDE CE QUI, COMBINE A D'AUTRES PARAMETRES
ENVIRONNEMENTAUX TRES FAVORABLES, DEVRAIT FAVORISER UNE
RE-INTENSIFICATION PLUS FRANCHE, POSSIBLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. PAR LA SUITE LES CONDITIONS POURRAIENT
RESTER FAVORABLES JUSQU'A L'ARRIVEE SUR MADAGASCAR. DES FLUCTUATIONS
D'INTENSITE EN LIEN AVEC UN OU DES CYCLES DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE
L'OEIL SONT ALORS PROBABLES. LA FAIBLE PREVISIBILITE DE CES
MECANISMES ENTRETIENT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE.
LES DERNIERES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES ET ASCAT DISPONIBLES MONTRENT QUE
LA STRUCTURE CENTRALE A COMMENCE A S'ELARGIR (RVM ESTIME A PLUS DE 20
MN). UNE STRUCTURE DE PLUS EN PLUS LARGE DU CHAMP DE VENT EST
ENVISAGEE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS (EN POSSIBLE LIEN AVEC UN PREMIER
CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL) AGRANDISSSANT SENSIBLEMENT LA
ZONE D'INFLUENCE DU SYSTEME (IMPACTS SIGNIFICATIFS POSSIBLES A
DISTANCE)

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

- ILE MAURICE ET LA REUNION : UNE DEGRADATION DEVRAIT SE METTRE EN
PLACE SUR MAURICE PUIS LA REUNION A PARTIR DE MARDI SOIR. SI LE COEUR
DU CYCLONE DEVRAIT PASSER PLUS AU NORD DES ILES, DES IMPACTS
SIGNIFICATIFS EN PERIPHERIE SONT A CRAINDRE. CES INTEMPERIES PEUVENT
S'ETENDRE JUSQU'A VENDREDI MATIN: LES PROBABILITES SONT MAINTENANT
FORTES QUE LES ILES SOIENT CONCERNEES PAR DES VENTS DE FORCE COUP DE
VENT (RAFALES A 90-110 KM/H SUR LE LITTORAL POUVANT DEPASSER LES 120
KM/H SUR LES HAUTS HABITES NOTAMMENT A LA REUNION). IL EST IMPORTANT
DE NOTER QU'IL Y A 20-30% DE CHANCE DE CONNAITRE DES VENTS DE FORCE
TEMPETE (SCENARIO DU PIRE PROBABLE AVEC 120-130 KM/H EN RAFALE
GENERALISEES, 150 KM/H POSSIBLES SUR LES HAUTS HABITES DE LA REUNION
NOTAMMENT). LES CUMULS DE PLUIES PEUVENT LOCALEMENT DEPASSER LES 100
MM EN 24H SUR MAURICE ET LES ZONES LITTORALES DE LA REUNION. DES
CUMULS PLUS BEAUCOUP PLUS IMPORTANTS SONT ATTENDUES SUR LE RELIEF DE
LA REUNION (+500 MM EN 24H POSSIBLES). UN ETAT DE MER TRES DEGRADE
AVEC DES VAGUES DE PLUS DE 4M EN HAUTEURS MOYENNES ET UNE ELEVATION
ANORMALE DE QUEQUES DIZAINES DE CENTIMETRES DU NIVEAU DE LA MER, SONT
ATTENDUES SUR LES COTES EXPOSEES.
CES PREVISIONS DEMANDENT ENCORE A ETRE CONFIRMEES ET LES POPULATIONS
SONT INVITEES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.

- MADAGASCAR : ARRIVEE DU CYCLONE PREVUE EN TOUTE FIN DE SEMAINE SUR
LA COTE EST, POTENTIELLEMENT ENCORE A UN STADE DANGEREUX. PROBABILITE
D'IMPACT EN HAUSSE POUR LA REGION CENTRE EST (EN PREMIERE ESTIMATION
LARGE, ENTRE L'ILE SAINTE-MARIE AU NORD ET FARAFANGANA AU SUD). AVEC
UN DEBUT DES IMPACTS PLUIES ET VENTS POSSIBLE A PARTIR DE VENDREDI,
LES HABITANTS DE CES REGIONS SONT INVITES AUSSI A SUIVRE LA
PROGRESSION DE CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 010045
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/2/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 62.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 295 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 45 SW: 60 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/01 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 335 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2022/02/02 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SW: 360 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2022/02/02 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 315 SW: 345 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2022/02/03 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SW: 280 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

60H: 2022/02/03 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 335 SW: 425 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 205 SW: 230 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75

72H: 2022/02/04 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SW: 405 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/05 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 465 SW: 345 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2022/02/06 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SW: 140 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 95 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 AND CI=4.5-

THE BATSIRAI CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUED TO SHOW SIGNS OF SUFFERING WELL
INTO THE NIGHT. GPM AND AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL
CORE IS STRONGLY ERODED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE UNDER THE CONSTRAINT OF
THE EASTERLY SHEAR. THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES, MORE AND
MORE SCATTERED, PLEAD HOWEVER FOR A MAINTENANCE AT THE MINIMAL STAGE
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (POSSIBLY A LITTLE STRONG ESTIMATE). NOTE THAT
THE LAST IMAGES SEEM TO SHOW THE CONSTITUTION OF A COLD COMMA AND A
BETTER SPREADING OF CIRRUS OUTWARDS OVER THE EASTERN SECTOR (POSSIBLE
BEGINNING OF DECREASE OF THE IMPACT OF THE SHEAR).

BATSIRAI IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TWO CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS
COMING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND FROM A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE OF MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE IN THE NORTHEAST. TODAY, WITH
THE SHIFT OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE MAINTENANCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE EQUATOR TO
THE NORTHEAST, IT SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, IT WILL TRACK CLOSE
TO THE NORTH OF MAURITIUS AND REUNION WHILE SLOWING DOWN WHILE A WEAK
RIDGE OF MID-TROPICAL PRESSURE TRANSITS TEMPORARILY TO THE SOUTH.
FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL FADE, ALLOWING A
RESUMPTION OF A SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE LAST TRACK FORECAST IS A
LITTLE MORE SOUTHERN THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE
PERSISTENT TENDENCY OF THE AROME RUNS TO MAKE THE PHENOMENON TRACKING
FURTHER SOUTH.

WHILE CIMSS IS NOW ANALYZING A DEEP EASTERLY SHEAR APPROACHING 25 KT
(18Z) AND THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY, A STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED WEAKENING PHASE HAS SET IN. THIS SHEAR COULD STILL HINDER A
SIGNIFICANT RESUMPTION OF THE INTENSIFICATION TODAY. HOWEVER, ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
RIDGE, WHICH, COMBINED WITH OTHER VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
PARAMETERS, SHOULD FAVOR A MORE DEFINITE RE-INTENSIFICATION, POSSIBLY
TO THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS
COULD REMAIN FAVORABLE UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OVER MADAGASCAR.
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY RELATED TO ONE OR MORE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES ARE THEN LIKELY. THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THESE MECHANISMS
MAINTAINS AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY PREDICTION.
THE LAST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE AND ASCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL
STRUCTURE HAS STARTED TO EXPAND (RVM ESTIMATED AT MORE THAN 20 MN). A
LARGER AND LARGER STRUCTURE OF THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
FEW YEARS (POSSIBLY LINKED TO A FIRST CYCLE OF REPLACEMENT OF THE
EYEWALL), ENLARGING SIGNIFICANTLY THE ZONE OF INFLUENCE OF THE SYSTEM
(SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT DISTANCE)

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :

- MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND : A DEGRADATION SHOULD BE SET UP ON
MAURITIUS THEN REUNION FROM TUESDAY EVENING. IF THE HEART OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD PASS MORE IN THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS, SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN PERIPHERY ARE TO BE FEARED. THESE BAD WEATHER CAN EXTEND
UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING: THE PROBABILITIES ARE NOW STRONG THAT THE
ISLANDS ARE CONCERNED BY WINDS OF GALE FORCE (GUSTS TO 90-110 KM/H ON
THE COAST BEING ABLE TO EXCEED 120 KM/H ON THE INHABITED HIGHS IN
PARTICULAR IN REUNION). IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE IS A
20-30% CHANCE TO HAVE STORM FORCE WINDS (WORST CASE SCENARIO WITH
120-130 KM/H GUSTS, 150 KM/H POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHLANDS OF REUNION IN
PARTICULAR). THE CUMULATED RAINFALL CAN LOCALLY EXCEED 100 MM IN 24H
ON MAURITIUS AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF REUNION. MUCH MORE IMPORTANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE RELIEF OF REUNION (+500 MM IN 24H
POSSIBLE). A VERY DEGRADED SEA STATE WITH WAVES OF MORE THAN 4M IN
AVERAGE HEIGHT AND AN ABNORMAL RISE OF SOME TENS OF CENTIMETERS OF
THE SEA LEVEL, ARE EXPECTED ON THE EXPOSED COASTS.
THESE FORECASTS STILL NEED TO BE CONFIRMED AND PEOPLE ARE INVITED TO
FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SITUATION.

- MADAGASCAR : CYCLONE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE WEEK ON
THE EAST COAST, POTENTIALLY STILL AT A DANGEROUS STAGE. THE
PROBABILITY OF IMPACT IS INCREASING FOR THE CENTRAL EASTERN REGION
(IN A FIRST LARGE ESTIMATION, BETWEEN SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND IN THE
NORTH AND FARAFANGANA IN THE SOUTH). WITH A POSSIBLE BEGINNING OF
RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS FROM FRIDAY, THE INHABITANTS OF THESE REGIONS
ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 010019
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/02/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 01/02/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 62.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 30 NM IN
THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 45 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 55 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/01 AT 12 UTC:
17.2 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 180 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/02 AT 00 UTC:
18.0 S / 59.1 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 NM SE: 210 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 311849
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 31/01/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.9 S / 63.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 405 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 45 SO: 60 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 0 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 01/02/2022 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SO: 350 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 185 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 01/02/2022 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 435 SO: 400 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 02/02/2022 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 345 SO: 350 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 02/02/2022 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SO: 305 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 03/02/2022 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SO: 335 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SO: 205 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65

72H: 03/02/2022 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 380 SO: 425 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SO: 220 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/02/2022 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 400 SO: 370 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

120H: 05/02/2022 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 530 SO: 345 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SO: 230 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SO: 80 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0 ET CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EN CENTRE
NOYE SOUS LA MASSE S'EST MAINTENUE ASSOCIEE A DES SOMMETS TRES
FROIDS. L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES SSMIS VERS 12Z-14Z A MONTRE QU'UN OEIL
UN PEU PLUS LARGE A TENTE DE SE CONSTITUER EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
MAIS NE SEMBLE PAS S'ETRE MAINTENU (IMAGERIE AMSU-B METOPB ET METOPC
VERS 17Z-18Z). L'INTENSITE ESTIMEE EST ABAISSEE A 65 KT EN
RAPPROCHEMENT DES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES DU SATCON A 60-65 KT (VENTS
10-MIN).

LES FAUCHEES SSMIS ONT PERMIS DE RELOCALISER LA POSITION DE 12Z PLUS
AU NORD QU'INITIALEMENT ESTIMEE.

BATSIRAI A RALENTI SON DEPLACEMENT SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE DEUX FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES ISSUS DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
SUD-OUEST ET D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE
AU NORD-EST. DEMAIN, AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
SUD DU SYSTEME ET LE MAINTIEN DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU
NORD-EST, IL INCURVERA DAVANTAGE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. EN
MILIEU DE SEMAINE, IL CIRCULERA AU LARGE DU NORD DE L'ILE MAURICE ET
DE LA REUNION TOUT EN RALENTISSANT ALORS QU'UNE FAIBLESSE DE LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPO TRANSITE TEMPORAIREMENT AU SUD. A PARTIR DE
JEUDI, LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE SE RENFORCE PAR LE SUD-OUEST ET LA
DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE S'ESTOMPE, PERMETTANT UNE REPRISE D'UNE
TRAJECTOIRE UN PEU PLUS RAPIDE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST VERS
LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR.

LE CISAILLEMENT MODERE EN MOYENNE ET HAUTE TROPO DEVRAIT CONTINUER A
LIMITER A LA MARGE LE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION DE BATSIRAI A COURT
TERME. CETTE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DEVRAIT FAIBLIR DANS CES PROCHAINS
JOURS, CE QUI, COMBINE A D'AUTRES PARAMETRES ENVIRONNEMENTAUX TRES
FAVORABLES, DEVRAIT FAVORISER UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS FRANCHE,
PROBABLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. DES
FLUCTUATIONS D'INTENSITE EN LIEN AVEC UN OU DES CYCLES DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL SONT ALORS PROBABLES, ABOUTISSANT A UN
ELARGISSEMENT DU COEUR CENTRAL DU SYSTEME, ET DONC AGRANDIR LA SPHERE
D'INFLUENCE DES VENTS FORTS. LA FAIBLE PREVISIBILITE DE CES
MECANISMES ENTRETIENT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- SAINT-BRANDON : CONDITIONS TRES PERTURBEES MARDI AVEC LE PASSAGE DU
COEUR DU CYCLONE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE, GENERANT DE TRES FORTES
RAFALES ET DES CUMULS DE 150 A 200 MM SUR LA JOURNA E.

- ILE MAURICE ET LA REUNION : UNE DEGRADATION DEVRAIT SE METTRE EN
PLACE A PARTIR DE MARDI. LE COEUR DU CYCLONE DEVRAIT PASSER PLUS AU
NORD A L'ECART DES ILES, QUI DEVRAIENT AINSI SUBIR L'INFLUENCE DE LA
PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME : FORTES PLUIES SUR LE RELIEF (NOTAMMENT LA
REUNION) ET FORTES RAFALES DE VENT POUVANT LOCALEMENT DEPASSER LES
100/120 KM/H. CES PREVISIONS DEMANDENT ENCORE A ETRE CONFIRMEES ET
LES POPULATIONS SONT INVITEES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.

- MADAGASCAR : ARRIVEE DU CYCLONE PREVUE EN TOUTE FIN DE SEMAINE SUR
LA COTE EST, POTENTIELLEMENT ENCORE A UN STADE DANGEREUX. PROBABILITE
D'IMPACT EN HAUSSE POUR LA REGION CENTRE EST. LES HABITANTS DE CES
REGIONS SONT INVITES AUSSI A SUIVRE LA PROGRESSION DE CE SYSTEME.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 311849
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/2/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/31 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 63.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 405 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 45 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 0 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/01 06 UTC: 16.5 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SW: 350 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2022/02/01 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 435 SW: 400 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2022/02/02 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 345 SW: 350 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2022/02/02 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SW: 305 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2022/02/03 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 350 SW: 335 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

72H: 2022/02/03 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 53.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 380 SW: 425 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/04 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 400 SW: 370 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2022/02/05 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 49.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 530 SW: 345 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 230 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 80 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 AND CI=5.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SSMIS AROUND
12Z-14Z SHOWED THAT A SLIGHTLY LARGER EYE TRIED TO BUILD UP IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE BUT DID NOT SEEM TO BE MAINTAINED (AMSU-B METOPB AND
METOPC IMAGERY AROUND 17Z-18Z). THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
65 KT IN COMPARISON WITH THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OF THE SATCON AT
60-65 KT (10-MIN WINDS).

THE SSMIS SWATHS ALLOWED TO RELOCATE THE 12Z POSITION FURTHER NORTH
THAN INITIALLY ESTIMATED.

BATSIRAI HAS SLOWED DOWN ITS MOVEMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TWO
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS COMING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND FROM A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE OF MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE TO
THE NORTHEAST. TOMORROW, WITH THE SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE MAINTENANCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST, IT WILL CURVE ITS TRACK FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, IT WILL CIRCULATE OFF THE NORTH
OF MAURITIUS AND REUNION WHILE SLOWING DOWN AS A WEAK RIDGE OF
MID-TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITS TEMPORARILY TO THE SOUTH. FROM
THURSDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL FADE, ALLOWING A RESUMPTION OF A
SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS THE
EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR.

THE MODERATE SHEAR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TROPO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
LIMIT AT THE MARGIN THE POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION OF BATSIRAI IN
THE SHORT TERM. THIS SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WHICH, COMBINED WITH OTHER VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
PARAMETERS, SHOULD FAVOR A MORE DEFINITE INTENSIFICATION, PROBABLY TO
THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
LINKED TO ONE OR MORE CYCLES OF REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL ARE THEN
LIKELY, LEADING TO AN ENLARGEMENT OF THE CENTRAL CORE OF THE SYSTEM,
AND THUS ENLARGE THE SPHERE OF INFLUENCE OF STRONG WINDS. THE LOW
PREDICTABILITY OF THESE MECHANISMS MAINTAINS AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE
INTENSITY PREDICTION.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- SAINT-BRANDON : VERY DISTURBED CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE HEART OF THE CYCLONE IN ITS IMMEDIATE VICINITY,
GENERATING VERY STRONG GUSTS AND CUMULUS OF 150 TO 200 MM OVER THE
DAY.

- MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND : A DEGRADATION SHOULD BE SET UP FROM
TUESDAY. THE HEART OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS MORE IN THE NORTH AWAY
FROM THE ISLANDS, WHICH SHOULD THUS UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM: HEAVY RAINS ON THE RELIEF (IN PARTICULAR THE
REUNION) AND STRONG GUSTS OF WIND BEING ABLE LOCALLY TO EXCEED THE
100/120 KM/H. THESE FORECASTS STILL NEED TO BE CONFIRMED AND PEOPLE
ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SITUATION.

- MADAGASCAR : CYCLONE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE WEEK ON
THE EAST COAST, POTENTIALLY STILL AT A DANGEROUS STAGE. THE
PROBABILITY OF IMPACT IS INCREASING FOR THE CENTRAL EASTERN REGION.
THE INHABITANTS OF THESE REGIONS ARE ALSO INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 311819
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/01/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 31/01/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 63.0 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 65 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/01 AT 06 UTC:
16.5 S / 61.5 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 170 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/01 AT 18 UTC:
17.3 S / 59.6 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 135 NM SE: 235 NM SW: 215 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 125 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 70 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 311500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 220131132922
2022013112 08S BATSIRAI 010 01 290 06 SATL 025
T000 157S 0632E 085 R064 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 050 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 105 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 159S 0619E 090 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 167S 0601E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 175S 0584E 085 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 180 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 183S 0570E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 180 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 187S 0547E 105 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD
T096 188S 0524E 105 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 195S 0500E 090 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 63.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.9S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.7S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.5S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.3S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.7S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.8S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.5S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 62.9E.
31JAN22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
428 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.//
0822012318 83S 883E 20
0822012400 88S 890E 20
0822012406 93S 896E 20
0822012412 98S 898E 20
0822012418 103S 901E 25
0822012500 110S 904E 25
0822012506 115S 907E 20
0822012512 122S 909E 20
0822012518 132S 906E 20
0822012600 142S 896E 25
0822012606 144S 881E 30
0822012612 150S 866E 30
0822012618 157S 852E 30
0822012700 164S 837E 35
0822012706 169S 819E 45
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012806 183S 747E 45
0822012812 183S 734E 45
0822012818 183S 724E 50
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013100 163S 646E 95
0822013106 159S 638E 90
0822013106 159S 638E 90
0822013106 159S 638E 90
0822013112 157S 632E 85
0822013112 157S 632E 85
0822013112 157S 632E 85
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 63.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.9S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.7S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.5S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.3S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.7S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 18.8S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.5S 50.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 62.9E.
31JAN22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
428 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 311308
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 31/01/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.2 S / 63.0 E
(SEIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 973 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SO: 405 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 01/02/2022 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SO: 360 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 165 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 01/02/2022 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 380 SO: 360 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 195 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55

36H: 02/02/2022 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SO: 350 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SO: 195 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 02/02/2022 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SO: 400 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 215 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 65

60H: 03/02/2022 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 390 SO: 390 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 215 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 03/02/2022 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SO: 455 NO: 335
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SO: 220 NO: 205
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/02/2022 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 415 SO: 360 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SO: 250 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

120H: 05/02/2022 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 490 SO: 345 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SO: 90 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5 ET CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE EST
DEVENUE MOINS BONNE EN RAISON D'UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE DE SECTEUR
SUD-EST EN HAUTE ET MOYENNE TROPO. TEMPORAIREMENT UN OEIL MAL DEFINI
A EMERGE SUR L'IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE, MAIS A ETE RECOUVERT PAR LES
BURSTS DE CONVECTION, DANS LA PARTIE NORD DU CENTE DE BASSES COUCHES.
DE PLUS, LA TEMPA RATURES DES BANDES CONVECTIVES SONT DEVENUES PLUS
CHAUDES, AVEC UN CDO DEVENANT PUS DECHIQUETE SUR SON BORD EST. LES
ANALYSES DVORAK OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES S'ACCORDENT SUR UN LEGER
AFFAIBLISSEMENT TEMPORAIRE DU SYSTEME. AINSI AU VU DES DERNIERES
DONNEES DISPONIBLES, L'INTENSITE A ETE ABAISSEE A 70 KT.

BATSIRAI A INCURVE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST, PILOTE PAR
UN FLUX DIRECTEUR GENERE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE, EN PASSANT A
PLUS DE 400 KM AU NORD DE RODRIGUES. A PARTIR DE CE SOIR, AVEC LE
DECALAGE DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS L'EST, IL INCURVERA
DAVANTAGE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST AVANT DE PASSER A
PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE SAINT-BRANDON MARDI. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, IL
CIRCULERA AU LARGE DU NORD DE L'ILE MAURICE ET DE LA REUNION TOUT EN
RALENTISSANT SOUS L'EFFET DU RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE ET D'UNE FAIBLESSE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPO
SE CONSTITUANT A L'EST DES MASCAREIGNES, PENDANT QUE LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE DEVRAIT PERSISTER AU SUD. A CETTE ECHEANCE, SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES L'INCERTITUDE RESTE
MARQUEE, NOTAMMENT AU MOMENT DE S'APPROCHER DES COTES DE MADAGASCAR
EN TOUTE FIN DE SEMAINE.

LE CISAILLEMENT MODERE EN MOYENNE ET HAUTE TROPO S'EST CONFIRME A
L'ANALYSE ET DEVRAIT LIMITER A LA MARGE LE POTENTIEL
D'INTENSIFICATION DE BATSIRAI. CETTE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DEVRAIT
FAIBLIR DANS CES PROCHAINS JOURS, CE QUI, COMBINE A D'AUTRES
PARAMETRES ENVIRONNEMENTAUX TRES FAVORABLES, DEVRAIT FAVORISER UNE
INTENSIFICATION PLUS FRANCHE, PROBABLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE. DES FLUCTUATIONS D'INTENSITE EN LIEN AVEC UN OU DES
CYCLES DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL SONT ALORS PROBABLES,
ABOUTISSANT A UN ELARGISSEMENT DU COEUR CENTRAL DU SYSTEME, ET DONC
AGRANDIR LA SPHERE D'INFLUENCE DES VENTS FORTS. LA FAIBLE
PREVISIBILITE DE CES MECANISMES ENTRETIENT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA
PREVISION D'INTENSITE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- RODRIGUES : DEGRADATION MARGINALE CE LUNDI, AVEC DES RAFALES DE
L'ORDRE DE 60 A 70 KM/H.
- SAINT-BRANDON : CONDITIONS TRES PERTURBEES MARDI AVEC LE PASSAGE DU
COEUR DU CYCLONE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE, GENERANT DE TRES FORTES
RAFALES ET DES CUMULS DE 150 A 200 MM SUR LA JOURNA E.
- ILE MAURICE ET LA REUNION : UNE DEGRADATION DEVRAIT SE METTRE EN
PLACE A PARTIR DE MARDI. LE COEUR DU CYCLONE DEVRAIT PASSER PLUS AU
NORD A L'ECART DES ILES, QUI DEVRAIENT AINSI SUBIR L'INFLUENCE DE LA
PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME : FORTES PLUIES SUR LE RELIEF (NOTAMMENT LA
REUNION) ET FORTES RAFALES DE VENT POUVANT LOCALEMENT DEPASSER LES
100/120 KM/H (150 KM/H DANS LES HAUTES. CES PREVISIONS DEMANDENT
ENCORE A ETRE CONFIRMEES ET LES POPULATIONS SONT INVITEES A SUIVRE
L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.
- MADAGASCAR : ARRIVEE DU CYCLONE PREVUE EN TOUTE FIN DE SEMAINE SUR
LA COTE EST, POTENTIELLEMENT ENCORE A UN STADE DANGEREUX, MAIS AVEC
UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA ZONE D'IMPACT ET LA CHRONOLOGIE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 311308
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/2/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/31 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 63.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SW: 405 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/01 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 360 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2022/02/01 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 380 SW: 360 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2022/02/02 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SW: 350 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2022/02/02 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 370 SW: 400 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2022/02/03 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 390 SW: 390 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2022/02/03 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 345 SW: 455 NW: 335
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 220 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 100
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/04 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 415 SW: 360 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 250 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2022/02/05 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 490 SW: 345 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 AND CI=5.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS CLEAR DUE TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR ALOFT. TEMPORARILY AN ILL-DEFINED
EYE EMERGED ON THE CLASSICAL IMAGERY, BUT WAS COVERED BY CONVECTIVE
BURSTS, IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER. IN ADDITION,
THE TEMPERATURES OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BECOME WARMER, WITH A
MORE RAGGED CDO ON ITS EASTERN EDGE. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSES AGREE ON A SLIGHT TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. GIVEN
TO THE LAST AVAILABLE DATA, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KT.

BATSIRAI HAS CURVED ITS TRACK TOWARDS WEST-SOUTHWEST, DRIVEN BY A
STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, PASSING MORE THAN
400 KM NORTH OF RODRIGUES. TONIGHT, WITH THE SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TOWARDS THE EAST, IT WILL CURVE ITS TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-WEST BEFORE PASSING IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SAINT-BRANDON
ON TUESDAY. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, IT WILL DRIFT OFF THE NORTH OF
MAURITIUS AND REUNION WHILE SLOWING DOWN UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND A WEAKNESS OF THE
MEDIUM TO HIGH RIDGE FORMING EAST OF THE MASCAREIGNES, WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST TO THE SOUTH. ON THIS SCALE, UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS,
ESPECIALLY WHEN APPROACHING THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR AT THE END OF THE
WEEK.

THE MODERATE WINDSHEAR ALOFT HAS BEEN CONFIRMED ON ANALYSIS AND
SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION OF BATSIRAI . THIS
CONSTRAINT SHOULD WEAKEN IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH, COMBINED WITH
OTHER VERY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS, SHOULD FAVOR A
STRONGER INTENSIFICATION, PROBABLY TO THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY LINKED TO ONE OR MORE CYCLES OF
REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL ARE THEN LIKELY, LEADING TO AN ENLARGEMENT
OF THE CENTRAL CORE OF THE SYSTEM, AND THUS ENLARGE THE SPHERE OF
INFLUENCE OF STRONG WINDS. THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THESE MECHANISMS
MAINTAINS AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY PREDICTION.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- RODRIGUES : MARGINAL DEGRADATION ON MONDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70
KM/H.
- SAINT-BRANDON : VERY DISTURBED CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE HEART OF THE CYCLONE IN ITS IMMEDIATE VICINITY,
GENERATING VERY STRONG GUSTS AND CUMULUS OF 150 TO 200 MM OVER THE
DAY.
- MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND : A DEGRADATION SHOULD BE SET UP FROM
TUESDAY. THE HEART OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS MORE IN THE NORTH AWAY
FROM THE ISLANDS, WHICH SHOULD THUS UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM: HEAVY RAINS ON THE RELIEF (IN PARTICULAR THE
REUNION) AND STRONG GUSTS OF WIND BEING ABLE LOCALLY TO EXCEED THE
100/120 KM/H (150 KM/H IN THE HIGHS). THESE FORECASTS STILL NEED TO
BE CONFIRMED AND PEOPLE ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SITUATION.
- MADAGASCAR: CYCLONE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE WEEK ON
THE EAST COAST, POTENTIALLY STILL AT A DANGEROUS STAGE, BUT WITH A
STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE IMPACT AREA AND THE TIMING.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 311216
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/01/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 31/01/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 973 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 63.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/02/01 AT 00 UTC:
16.5 S / 61.6 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 90 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/01 AT 12 UTC:
17.3 S / 59.6 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 105 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 310640
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 31/01/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.9 S / 63.6 E
(QUINZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 962 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SO: 405 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 31/01/2022 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SO: 350 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 175 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 01/02/2022 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 370 SO: 360 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 205 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 01/02/2022 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 390 SO: 360 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SO: 215 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 02/02/2022 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SO: 360 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 215 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 02/02/2022 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SO: 360 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SO: 215 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 03/02/2022 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 370 SO: 350 NO: 315
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 75

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/02/2022 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 390 SO: 400 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SO: 230 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75

120H: 05/02/2022 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 585 SO: 435 NO: 230
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 345 SO: 285 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 120 SO: 100 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, BATSIRAI A CONSERVE UNE
CONFIGURATION EN CDO, AVEC UNE ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE QUI A LEGEREMENT
FLUCTUEE PRES DU CENTRE. LES ANALYSES DVORAK OBJECTIVES ET
SUBJECTIVES DONNENT UN DT PROCHE DE 5.0. EN. L'INTENSITE EST DONC
LAISSEE STATIONNAIRE A 80KT.

BATSIRAI POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST PUIS OUEST
CE LUNDI, PILOTE PAR UN FLUX DIRECTEUR GENERE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. LE COEUR DU SYSTEME PASSE A PLUS DE 400 KM AU NORD DE
RODRIGUES CE LUNDI. A PARTIR DE CE SOIR, AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS L'EST, IL INCURVERA SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST AVANT DE PASSER A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE
SAINT-BRANDON MARDI. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, IL CIRCULERA AU LARGE DU
NORD DE L'ILE MAURICE ET DE LA REUNION TOUT EN RALENTISSANT SOUS
L'EFFET DU RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE ET D'UNE
FAIBLE DORSALE DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPO SE CONSTITUANT A L'EST DES
MASCAREIGNES, PENDANT QUE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DEVRAIT PERSISTER
AU SUD. SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES,
L'INCERTITUDE RESTE MARQUEE SUR LA FIN D'ECHEANCE, NOTAMMENT AU
MOMENT DE S'APPROCHER DES COTES DE MADAGASCAR EN TOUTE FIN DE
SEMAINE.

A COURT TERME, LA PRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE A MODERE EN
MOYENNE ET HAUTE TROPO DEVRAIT LIMITER A LAMARGE LE POTENTIEL
D'INTENSIFICATION. CETTE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DEVRAIT DIMINUER CES
PROCHAINS JOURS, CE QUI, COMBINE A D'AUTRES PARAMETRES
ENVIRONNEMENTAUX FAVORABLES, DEVRAIT FAVORISER UNE INTENSIFICATION
PLUS FRANCHE, PROBABLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
INTENSE. DES FLUCTUATIONS D'INTENSITE EN LIEN AVEC UN OU DES CYCLES
DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL SONT ALORS PROBABLES, ABOUTISSANT A
UN ELARGISSEMENT DU COEUR CENTRAL DU SYSTEME. LA FAIBLE PREVISIBILITE
DE CES MECANISMES ENTRETIENT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- RODRIGUES : DEGRADATION MARGINALE CE LUNDI.
- SAINT-BRANDON : CONDITIONS EXTREMEMENT PERTURBEES MARDI AVEC LE
PASSAGE DU COEUR DU CYCLONE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE.
- ILE MAURICE ET LA REUNION : UNE DEGRADATION DEVRAIT SE METTRE EN
PLACE A PARTIR DE MARDI. LE COEUR DU CYCLONE DEVRAIT PASSER A L'ECART
DES ILES, QUI DEVRAIENT AINSI NE SUBIR QUE L'INFLUENCE DE LA
PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME : FORTES PLUIES SUR LE RELIEF (NOTAMMENT LA
REUNION) ET FORTES RAFALES DE VENT POUVANT LOCALEMENT DEPASSER LES
100/110 KM/H. CES PREVISIONS DEMANDENT ENCORE A ETRE CONFIRMEES ET
LES POPULATIONS SONT INVITEES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.
- MADAGASCAR : ARRIVEE DU CYCLONE PREVUE AU PLUS TOT VENDREDI ET PLUS
PROBABLEMENT AU COURS DU WEEK-END SUR LA COTE EST, POTENTIELLEMENT
ENCORE A UN STADE DANGEREUX, MAIS AVEC UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA
ZONE D'IMPACT ET LA CHRONOLOGIE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 310640
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/2/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/31 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 63.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SW: 405 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/31 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 350 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2022/02/01 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 370 SW: 360 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2022/02/01 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 58.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 390 SW: 360 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2022/02/02 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 57.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SW: 360 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2022/02/02 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SW: 360 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2022/02/03 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 370 SW: 350 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/04 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 390 SW: 400 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 230 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75

120H: 2022/02/05 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 585 SW: 435 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, BATSIRAI HAS KEPT A CDO PATTERN WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FLUCTUATING SLIGHTLY NEAR THE CENTER.OBJECTIVE
AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES GIVE A T-NUMBER NEAR 5.0.FINAL
INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LEFT STATIONARY AT 80KT.

BATSIRAI KEEPS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD, DRIVEN BY A
STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM'S CENTER
WILL TRACK MORE THAN 400 KM NORTH OF RODRIGUES THIS MONDAY THEN WILL
GRADUALLY CURVE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST, MAKING IT
TRACK IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SAINT-BRANDON ON TUESDAY, AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. BY MID-WEEK, BATISIRAI SHOULD BE
TRACKING AT SEA TO THE NORTH OF MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND WHILE
SLOWING DOWN AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH
AND A WEEK RIDGE ALSO DEVELOPS EAST OF THE MASCARENES, WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. UNDER VARIOUS
COMPETING STEERING FLOWS, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST RANGE, ESPECIALLY WHILE APPROACHING THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR
AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE SHORT RUN, MID-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD CONTAIN
BATSIRAI'S INTENSIFICATION. THIS SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD THEN
SLIGHTLY DIMINISH IN THE COMING DAYS, WHICH, COMBINED WITH OTHER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS, SHOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION,
PROBABLY REACHING THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY RELATED TO ONE OR SEVERAL EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE THEN LIKELY, LEADING TO A BROADER CENTRAL
CORE. THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH MECHANISMS MAINTAINS AN
UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- RODRIGUES : MARGINALLY DISTURBED WEATHER THIS MONDAY.
- SAINT-BRANDON : EXTREMELY DISTURBED CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH THE
CYCLONE'S CORE TRACKING IN ITS IMMEDIATE VICINITY.
- MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND : WEATHER AND SEA CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE FROM TUESDAY. THE CYCLONE'S VIOLENT CORE SHOULD TRACK
ABOUT 200 KM NORTH OF THE ISLANDS, WHICH SHOULD THUS ONLY BE
INFLUENCED BY THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM: HEAVY RAINFALL (ENHANCED
ON HIGH TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY ON REUNION ISLAND) AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
THAT COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 100/110 KM/H. THESE FORECASTS STILL NEED TO
BE CONFIRMED AND PEOPLE ARE ADVISED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SITUATION.
- MADAGASCAR : ARRIVAL OF THE CYCLONE ON THE EAST COAST EXPECTED FROM
FRIDAY AND MORE PROBABLY DURING THE WEEK-END (UNCERTAIN TIMING),
POTENTIALLY STILL AT A DANGEROUS STAGE, BUT WITH A HIGH LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE IMPACT AREA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 310618 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/01/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 31/01/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 962 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 63.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/01/31 AT 18 UTC:
16.2 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 145 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/01 AT 06 UTC:
16.7 S / 60.7 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 200 NM SW: 195 NM NW: 105 NM
34 KT NE: 70 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 310605
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/01/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 31/01/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 962 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 63.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 140 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/01/31 AT 18 UTC:
16.2 S / 62.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H, VALID 2022/02/01 AT 06 UTC:
16.7 S / 60.7 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 310300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 220131020002
2022013100 08S BATSIRAI 009 01 280 07 SATL 030
T000 164S 0645E 095 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 090 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 163S 0630E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 167S 0615E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 173S 0596E 085 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 181S 0579E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 170 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 191S 0553E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 192S 0531E 105 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 201S 0509E 090 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 16.4S 64.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 64.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.3S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.7S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.3S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.1S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.1S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.2S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.1S 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 64.1E.
31JAN22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
466 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 311500Z AND 010300Z.
//
0822012318 83S 883E 20
0822012400 88S 890E 20
0822012406 93S 896E 20
0822012412 98S 898E 20
0822012418 103S 901E 25
0822012500 110S 904E 25
0822012506 115S 907E 20
0822012512 122S 909E 20
0822012518 132S 906E 20
0822012600 142S 896E 25
0822012606 144S 881E 30
0822012612 150S 866E 30
0822012618 157S 852E 30
0822012700 164S 837E 35
0822012706 169S 819E 45
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012806 183S 747E 45
0822012812 183S 734E 45
0822012818 183S 724E 50
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822012918 178S 691E 80
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013000 175S 681E 95
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013006 171S 671E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013012 167S 661E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013018 165S 652E 100
0822013100 164S 645E 95
0822013100 164S 645E 95
0822013100 164S 645E 95
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 16.4S 64.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 64.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.3S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.7S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.3S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.1S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.1S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.2S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.1S 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 64.1E.
31JAN22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
466 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 311500Z AND 010300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 310030
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 31/01/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.3 S / 64.5 E
(SEIZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATRE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 963 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SO: 405 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 31/01/2022 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 350 SO: 390 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SO: 185 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 01/02/2022 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 360 SO: 390 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 185 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

36H: 01/02/2022 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SO: 370 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SO: 205 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

48H: 02/02/2022 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 215 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 02/02/2022 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

72H: 03/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SO: 370 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 04/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 405 SO: 390 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SO: 230 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 75

120H: 05/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 530 SO: 435 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SO: 280 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 70

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, BATSIRAI A CONSERVE UNE
CONFIGURATION EN CDO, AVEC UNE CONVECTION RESTANT TRES VIGOUREUSE
PRES DU CENTRE (SOMMETS NUAGEUX A -85/-90AOC, ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE
DETECTEE). LES ANALYSES DVORAK OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES DONNENT UN
DT PROCHE DE 5.0. EN L'ABSENCE D'AUTRES DONNEES, L'INTENSITE EST DONC
LAISSEE STATIONNAIRE A 80KT.

BATSIRAI POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST PUIS OUEST
CE LUNDI, PILOTE PAR UN FLUX DIRECTEUR GENERE PAR LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. LE COEUR DU SYSTEME PASSE A PLUS DE 350 KM AU NORD DE
RODRIGUES CE LUNDI. A PARTIR DE CE SOIR, AVEC LE DECALAGE DE LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS L'EST, IL INCURVERA SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST AVANT DE PASSER A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE
SAINT-BRANDON MARDI. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE, IL CIRCULERA AU LARGE DU
NORD DE L'ILE MAURICE ET DE LA REUNION TOUT EN RALENTISSANT SOUS
L'EFFET DU RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE ET D'UNE
FAIBLE DORSALE DE MOYENNE A HAUTE TROPO SE CONSTITUANT A L'EST DES
MASCAREIGNES, PENDANT QUE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE DEVRAIT PERSISTER
AU SUD. SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES,
L'INCERTITUDE RESTE MARQUEE SUR LA FIN D'ECHEANCE, NOTAMMENT AU
MOMENT DE S'APPROCHER DES COTES DE MADAGASCAR EN TOUTE FIN DE
SEMAINE.

A COURT TERME, LA PRESENCE D'UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE EN MOYENNE ET
HAUTE TROPO DEVRAIT LIMITER LE POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION. CETTE
CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DEVRAIT DIMINUER CES PROCHAINS JOURS, CE QUI,
COMBINE A D'AUTRES PARAMETRES ENVIRONNEMENTAUX FAVORABLES, DEVRAIT
FAVORISER UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS FRANCHE, PROBABLEMENT JUSQU'AU
STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. DES FLUCTUATIONS D'INTENSITE EN
LIEN AVEC UN OU DES CYCLES DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL SONT
ALORS PROBABLES, ABOUTISSANT A UN ELARGISSEMENT DU COEUR CENTRAL DU
SYSTEME. LA FAIBLE PREVISIBILITE DE CES MECANISMES ENTRETIENT UNE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- RODRIGUES : DEGRADATION MARGINALE CE LUNDI.
- SAINT-BRANDON : CONDITIONS EXTREMEMENT PERTURBEES MARDI AVEC LE
PASSAGE DU COEUR DU CYCLONE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE.
- ILE MAURICE ET LA REUNION : UNE DEGRADATION DEVRAIT SE METTRE EN
PLACE A PARTIR DE MARDI. LE COEUR DU CYCLONE DEVRAIT PASSER A L'ECART
DES ILES, QUI DEVRAIENT AINSI NE SUBIR QUE L'INFLUENCE DE LA
PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME : FORTES PLUIES SUR LE RELIEF (NOTAMMENT LA
REUNION) ET FORTES RAFALES DE VENT POUVANT LOCALEMENT DEPASSER LES
100 KM/H. CES PREVISIONS DEMANDENT ENCORE A ETRE CONFIRMEES ET LES
POPULATIONS SONT INVITEES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.
- MADAGASCAR : ARRIVEE DU CYCLONE PREVUE AU PLUS TOT VENDREDI ET PLUS
PROBABLEMENT AU COURS DU WEEK-END SUR LA COTE EST, POTENTIELLEMENT
ENCORE A UN STADE DANGEREUX, MAIS AVEC UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA
ZONE D'IMPACT ET LA CHRONOLOGIE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 310030
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/2/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/31 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 64.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 963 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SW: 405 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/31 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 350 SW: 390 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2022/02/01 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 360 SW: 390 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2022/02/01 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2022/02/02 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2022/02/02 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2022/02/03 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/04 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 405 SW: 390 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75

120H: 2022/02/05 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 530 SW: 435 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, BATSIRAI HAS KEPT A CDO PATTERN DISPLAYING
VERY STRONG CONVECTION (CLOUD TOPS NEAR -85/-90AOC, THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY). OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES GIVE A T-NUMBER
NEAR 5.0. WITHOUT ANY OTHER AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE DATA, FINAL INTENSITY
IS THEREFORE LEFT STATIONARY AT 80KT.

BATSIRAI KEEPS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD, DRIVEN BY A
STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM'S CENTER
WILL TRACK MORE THAN 350 KM NORTH OF RODRIGUES THIS MONDAY THEN WILL
GRADUALLY CURVE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST, MAKING IT
TRACK IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SAINT-BRANDON ON TUESDAY, AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. BY MID-WEEK, BATISIRAI SHOULD BE
TRACKING AT SEA TO THE NORTH OF MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND WHILE
SLOWING DOWN AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH
AND A WEEK RIDGE ALSO DEVELOPS EAST OF THE MASCARENES, WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. UNDER VARIOUS
COMPETING STEERING FLOWS, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST RANGE, ESPECIALLY WHILE APPROACHING THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR
AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE SHORT RUN, MID-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD CONTAIN
BATSIRAI'S INTENSIFICATION. THIS SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD THEN
SLIGHTLY DIMINISH IN THE COMING DAYS, WHICH, COMBINED WITH OTHER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS, SHOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION,
PROBABLY REACHING THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY RELATED TO ONE OR SEVERAL EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE THEN LIKELY, LEADING TO A BROADER CENTRAL
CORE. THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH MECHANISMS MAINTAINS AN
UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- RODRIGUES : MARGINALLY DISTURBED WEATHER THIS MONDAY.
- SAINT-BRANDON : EXTREMELY DISTURBED CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH THE
CYCLONE'S CORE TRACKING IN ITS IMMEDIATE VICINITY.
- MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND : WEATHER AND SEA CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE FROM TUESDAY. THE CYCLONE'S VIOLENT CORE SHOULD TRACK
ABOUT 200 KM NORTH OF THE ISLANDS, WHICH SHOULD THUS ONLY BE
INFLUENCED BY THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM: HEAVY RAINFALL (ENHANCED
ON HIGH TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY ON REUNION ISLAND) AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
THAT COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 100 KM/H. THESE FORECASTS STILL NEED TO BE
CONFIRMED AND PEOPLE ARE ADVISED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SITUATION.
- MADAGASCAR : ARRIVAL OF THE CYCLONE ON THE EAST COAST EXPECTED FROM
FRIDAY AND MORE PROBABLY DURING THE WEEK-END (UNCERTAIN TIMING),
POTENTIALLY STILL AT A DANGEROUS STAGE, BUT WITH A HIGH LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE IMPACT AREA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 310007
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 31/01/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 31/01/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 963 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 64.5 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 170 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/01/31 AT 12 UTC:
16.2 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 NM SE: 190 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2022/02/01 AT 00 UTC:
16.6 S / 61.5 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 195 NM SW: 210 NM NW: 110 NM
34 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 75 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 65 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 301827
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 30/01/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.6 S / 65.3 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET SOIXANTE CINQ DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 964 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SO: 405 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 150 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 60 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 31/01/2022 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SO: 285 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

24H: 31/01/2022 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SO: 350 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 175 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 01/02/2022 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 360 SO: 370 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SO: 205 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 01/02/2022 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 425 SO: 400 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 230 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 02/02/2022 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 390 SO: 360 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SO: 215 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 02/02/2022 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SO: 350 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/02/2022 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 390 SO: 345 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SO: 230 NO: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 95 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

120H: 04/02/2022 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 470 SO: 435 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SO: 70 NO: 70

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, BATSIRAI A PROGRESSIVEMENT PERDU SA
CONFIGURATION EN OEIL EN IMAGERIE VISIBLE, EVOLUANT EN CENTRE NOYE
SOUS LA MASSE, AVEC UNE CONVECTION RESTANT TRES VIGOUREUSE PRES DU
CENTRE (SOMMETS NUAGEUX A -85AOC, ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE DETECTEE). LES
DONNEES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE 1206Z ET 1410Z MONTRENT UN COEUR
CONVECTIF PARTIELLEMENT ERODE DU COTE SUD-EST, TEMOIGNANT DES EFFETS
D'UN CISAILLEMENT MODERE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN CDO DONNE UN DT DE 5.0,
COHERANT AVEC L'ADT ET LE SATCON. EN L'ABSENCE D'AUTRES DONNEES
OBJECTIVES, L'INTENSITE EST DONC LAISSEE STATIONNAIRE A 80KT.

BATSIRAI POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST, PILOTE PAR
UN FLUX DIRECTEUR GENERE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LE SYSTEME
PASSERA A PLUS DE 350 KM AU NORD DE RODRIGUES CE LUNDI PUIS INCURVERA
SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST, LE FAISANT PASSER A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE
DE SAINT-BRANDON MARDI. IL PRENDRA ENSUITE UNE ORIENTATION VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS
L'EST. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, BATISIRAI DEVRAIT CIRCULER AU
LARGE DU NORD DE L'ILE MAURICE ET DE LA REUNION TOUT EN RALENTISSANT
SOUS L'EFFET DU RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU
NORD-EST ET L'APPARITION D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES,
L'INCERTITUDE RESTE PLUS MARQUEE SUR LA FIN D'ECHEANCE, NOTAMMENT AU
MOMENT DE S'APPROCHER DES COTES DE MADAGASCAR EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

A COURT TERME, LE CISAILLEMENT DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DE SECTEUR
SUD-EST ET LE CISAILLEMENT PROFOND D'EST A NORD-EST DEVRAIENT
CONTENIR SON INTENSIFICATION. CETTE CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DEVRAIT
DIMINUER EN COURS DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, CE QUI, COMBINE A D'AUTRES
PARAMETRES ENVIRONNEMENTAUX FAVORABLES, DEVRAIT FAVORISER UNE
INTENSIFICATION PLUS FRANCHE, PROBABLEMENT JUSQU'AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE. DES FLUCTUATIONS D'INTENSITE EN LIEN AVEC UN OU DES
CYCLES DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL SONT ALORS PROBABLES,
ABOUTISSANT A UN ELARGISSEMENT DU COEUR CENTRAL DU SYSTEME. LA FAIBLE
PREVISIBILITE DE CES MECANISMES ENTRETIENT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA
PREVISION D'INTENSITE.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- RODRIQUES : DEGRADATION MARGINALE CENTREE SUR LA JOURNEE DE LUNDI.
- SAINT-BRANDON : CONDITIONS EXTREMEMENT PERTURBEES MARDI AVEC LE
PASSAGE DU COEUR DU CYCLONE A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE.
- ILE MAURICE ET LA REUNION : UNE DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS DEVRAIT
SE METTRE EN PLACE A PARTIR DE MARDI. LE COEUR DU CYCLONE DEVRAIT
PASSER A L'ECART DES ILES, QUI DEVRAIENT AINSI NE SUBIR QUE
L'INFLUENCE DE LA PERIPHERIE DU SYSTEME : FORTES PLUIES SUR LE RELIEF
(NOTAMMENT LA REUNION) ET FORTES RAFALES DE VENT POUVANT APPROCHER
LES 100 KM/H OU LOCALEMENT LES DEPASSER. CES PREVISIONS DEMANDENT
ENCORE A ETRE CONFIRMEES ET LES POPULATIONS SONT INVITES A SUIVRE
L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.
- MADAGASCAR : ARRIVEE DU CYCLONE PREVUE ENTRE VENDREDI ET SAMEDI
(TIMING INCERTAIN) SUR LA COTE EST, POTENTIELLEMENT ENCORE A UN STADE
DANGEREUX, MAIS AVEC UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA ZONE D'IMPACT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 301827
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/2/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/30 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 65.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SW: 405 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/31 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2022/01/31 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 350 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2022/02/01 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 360 SW: 370 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2022/02/01 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 425 SW: 400 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 230 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2022/02/02 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 390 SW: 360 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2022/02/02 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SW: 350 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/03 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 390 SW: 345 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2022/02/04 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 470 SW: 435 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, BATSIRAI HAS PROGRESSIVELY LOST ITS EYE
PATTERN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY, EVOLVING INTO AN EMBEDED CENTER UNDER A
STILL VERY ACTIVE CDO (CLOUD TOPS NEAR -85AOC, DETECTION OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY). SSMIS MICROWAVE 1206Z AND 1410Z DATA SHOW
THAT THE SYSTEM'S CONVECTIVE CORE HAS BEEN PARTIALLY ERODED ON ITS
SOUTHEAST SIDE, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL SHEAR. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A CDO PATTERN GIVES A T-NUMBER OF 5.0,
CONSISTENT WITH ADT AND SATCON OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. FINAL INTENSITY
IS THEREFORE LEFT STATIONARY AT 80KT.

BATSIRAI KEEPS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, DRIVEN BY A STEERING FLOW
GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL PASS MORE THAN
350 KM NORTH OF RODRIGUES THIS MONDAY THEN WILL GRADUALLY CURVE ITS
TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST, MAKING IT PASS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
SAINT-BRANDON ON TUESDAY. IT WILL THEN TAKE A WEST-SOUTH-WEST TURN AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. BY MID-WEEK, BATISIRAI SHOULD
BE TRACKING AT SEA TO THE NORTH OF MAURITIUS AND REUNION WHILE
SLOWING DOWN AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES A BIT WEAKER. UNDER
SOMEWHAT COMPETING STEERING FLOWS, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, ESPECIALLY WHILE APPROACHING THE COAST OF
MADAGASCAR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE SHORT RUN, THE SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND THE DEEP
EAST-NORTHEAST SHEAR SHOULD CONTAIN BATSIRAI'S INTENSIFICATION. THIS
SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD SLIGHTLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH,
COMBINED WITH OTHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS, SHOULD FAVOR
INTENSIFICATION, PROBABLY REACHING THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY RELATED TO ONE OR MORE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE THEN LIKELY, LEADING TO AN ENLARGEMENT OF THE
CENTRAL CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH MECHANISMS
MAINTAINS AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY PREDICTION.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- RODRIQUES : RATHER MARGINALLY DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ON MONDAY.
- SAINT-BRANDON : EXTREMELY DISTURBED CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE CYCLONE'S CORE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY.
- MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND : WEATHER AND SEA CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE FROM TUESDAY. THE CYCLONE'S VIOLENT CORE SHOULD TRACK
ABOUT 200 KM NORTH OF THE ISLANDS, WHICH SHOULD THUS ONLY BE
INFLUENCED BY THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM: HEAVY RAINS (ENHANCED ON
HIGH TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY ON REUNION ISLAND) AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
THAT COULD APPROACH OR LOCALLY EXCEED 100 KM/H. THESE FORECASTS STILL
NEED TO BE CONFIRMED AND ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SITUATION.
- MADAGASCAR : ARRIVAL OF THE CYCLONE ON THE EAST COAST EXPECTED
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (UNCERTAIN TIMING THOUGH), POTENTIALLY
STILL AT A DANGEROUS STAGE, BUT WITH A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE IMPACT AREA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 301801
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/01/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 30/01/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 964 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 65.3 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/01/31 AT 06 UTC:
16.4 S / 63.8 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 150 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 95 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2022/01/31 AT 18 UTC:
16.5 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 105 NM SE: 160 NM SW: 190 NM NW: 100 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 95 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 301500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 220130142029
2022013012 08S BATSIRAI 008 01 290 09 SATL 020
T000 168S 0661E 095 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 164S 0645E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 164S 0628E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 168S 0611E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 174S 0591E 095 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 186S 0560E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 190S 0535E 110 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 195S 0514E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 16.8S 66.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 66.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.4S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.4S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.8S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.4S 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.6S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.0S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.5S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 65.7E.
30JAN22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
538 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
310300Z AND 311500Z.//
0822012318 83S 883E 20
0822012400 88S 890E 20
0822012406 93S 896E 20
0822012412 98S 898E 20
0822012418 103S 901E 25
0822012500 110S 904E 25
0822012506 115S 907E 20
0822012512 122S 909E 20
0822012518 132S 906E 20
0822012600 142S 896E 25
0822012606 144S 881E 30
0822012612 150S 866E 30
0822012618 157S 852E 30
0822012700 164S 837E 35
0822012706 169S 819E 45
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012806 183S 747E 45
0822012812 183S 734E 45
0822012818 183S 724E 50
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012918 178S 691E 75
0822012918 178S 691E 75
0822012918 178S 691E 75
0822013000 175S 682E 80
0822013000 175S 682E 80
0822013000 175S 682E 80
0822013006 171S 670E 85
0822013006 171S 670E 85
0822013006 171S 670E 85
0822013012 168S 661E 95
0822013012 168S 661E 95
0822013012 168S 661E 95
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 16.8S 66.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 66.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.4S 64.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.4S 62.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.8S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.4S 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.6S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.0S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.5S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 65.7E.
30JAN22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
538 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
310300Z AND 311500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 301235
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 30/01/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.8 S / 66.1 E
(SEIZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 963 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SO: 185 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 31/01/2022 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

24H: 31/01/2022 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SO: 240 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

36H: 01/02/2022 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SO: 335 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SO: 185 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 01/02/2022 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 350 SO: 305 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SO: 205 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

60H: 02/02/2022 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SO: 315 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SO: 205 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 02/02/2022 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 345 SO: 295 NO: 295
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 205 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/02/2022 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 360 SO: 345 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SO: 220 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65

120H: 04/02/2022 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SO: 325 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SO: 240 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0 CI=5.0+

LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL DE BATSIRAI EN IMAGERIE VISIBLE A PRESENTE
DES FLUCTUATIONS EN JOURNEE, S'AMELIORANT EN MILIEU DE JOURNEE ET
MOINS BELLE SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES. L'INTENSITE RESTE ESTIMEE A 80
KT, POTENTIELLEMENT UN PEU CONSERVATEUR, EN SE BASANT SUR LES
DERNIERES GUIDANCES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES.

PAS DE GRAND CHANGEMENT SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE.
BATSIRAI POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST, PILOTE PAR
UN FLUX DIRECTEUR GENERE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT PASSER BIEN AU NORD DE RODRIGUES DEMAIN LUNDI.
LUNDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT INCURVER VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS
L'EST. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, BATISIRAI DEVRAIT CEPENDANT
RALENTIR AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU
NORD-EST ET L'APPARITION D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. CETTE SITUATION POUVANT DONNER LIEU A DES FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES, L'INCERTITUDE RESTE PLUS MARQUEE SUR LA
FIN D'ECHEANCE COMME LE REFLETE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES A LONGUE
ECHEANCE. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE A ETE REMONTE UN PEU PLUS NORD EN
ACCORD AVEC LES DERNIERS GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

BATSIRAI BENEFICIE ACTUELLEMENT PLUTOT DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES. SI UNE CONTRAINTE D'EST A NORD-EST POURRAIT DE
TEMPS EN TEMPS SE FAIRE SENTIR, LES PARAMETRES ENVIRONEMENTAUX SONT
PLUTOT FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION AU COURS DES 5 PROCHAINS
JOURS. DES FLUCTUATIONS D'INTENSITE EN LIEN AVEC UN OU DES CYCLES DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL SONT PROBABLES, ABOUTISSANT A UN
ELARGISSEMENT DU COEUR CENTRAL DU SYSTEME. LA FAIBLE PREVISIBILITE DE
CES MECANISMES ENTRETIENT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE.

IMPACTS POSSIBLES SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- POUR RODRIGUES, UNE FAIBLE DEGRADATION (NOTAMMENT UN RISQUE DE
PLUIES BREVES MAIS INTENSES) DES CONDITIONS EST ATTENDUE A PARTIR DE
LA NUIT PROCHAINE JUSQU'A MARDI.

- POUR MAURICE ET LA REUNION, UNE DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS DEVRAIT
SE METTRE EN PLACE A PARTIR DE MARDI. AVEC LA TENDANCE VERS LE NORD
DES DERNIERES GUIDANCES, LE SCENARIO D'UNE INFLUENCE DE LA PERIPHERIE
DU COEUR DU SYSTEME DEVIENT LE SCENARIO LE PLUS PROBABLE: FORTES
PLUIES SUR LES RELIEFS (NOTAMMENT LA REUNION) ET FORTES RAFALES DE
VENT POUVANT APPROCHER LES 100 KM/H OU LOCALEMENT LES DEPASSER. CES
PREVISIONS DEMANDENT ENCORE A ETRE CONFIRMEES ET LES POPULATIONS SONT
INVITES A SUIVRE L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 301235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/2/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/30 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 66.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 963 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/31 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2022/01/31 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2022/02/01 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 335 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2022/02/01 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 350 SW: 305 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2022/02/02 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SW: 315 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2022/02/02 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 345 SW: 295 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/03 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 360 SW: 345 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2022/02/04 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SW: 325 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.0+

THE BATSIRAI EYE PATTERN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN FLUCTUATIONS
DURING THE DAY, IMPROVING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND LESS WELL
DEFINED IN THE LAST IMAGES. THE INTENSITY REMAINS ESTIMATED AT 80 KT,
POTENTIALLY A BIT CONSERVATIVE, BASED ON THE LAST OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

NO BIG CHANGE ON THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY. BATSIRAI CONTINUES ITS
TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST, DRIVEN BY A STEERING FLOW
GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS WELL NORTH
OF RODRIGUES TOMORROW MONDAY.
ON MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY CURVE TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARDS. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, BATISIRAI SHOULD SLOW DOWN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE
APPEARANCE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THIS SITUATION
MAY GIVE RISE TO CONFLICTING STEERING FLOWS, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS MORE
PRONOUNCED AT THE END OF THE RANGE AS REFLECTED IN THE VARIOUS
LONG-RANGE MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED A BIT NORTH
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

BATSIRAI IS CURRENTLY WITHIN RATHER GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
WHILE AN EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT COULD BE FELT AT TIMES, THE
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ARE RATHER FAVORABLE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY RELATED TO EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE(S) ARE LIKELY, LEADING TO SOME BROADENING OF THE
WIND FIELD. THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THESE MECHANISMS MAINTAINS AN
UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY PREDICTION.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- FOR RODRIGUES, A SLIGHT DEGRADATION OF THE CONDITIONS (NOTABLY A
RISK OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINS) IS EXPECTED FROM THE NEXT NIGHT UNTIL
TUESDAY.

- FOR MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION, A DEGRADATION OF THE CONDITIONS
SHOULD START FROM TUESDAY. WITH THE NORTHWARD TREND OF THE LAST
GUIDANCE, THE SCENARIO OF AN INFLUENCE OF THE PERIPHERY OF THE INNER
CORE OF THE SYSTEM BECOMES THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO: HEAVY RAINS ON
THE RELIEFS (NOTABLY REUNION) AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THAT CAN APPROACH
100 KM/H OR LOCALLY EXCEED THEM. THESE FORECASTS STILL NEED TO BE
CONFIRMED AND PEOPLE ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SITUATION.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 301225
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/01/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 30/01/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 963 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 66.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/01/31 AT 00 UTC:
16.6 S / 64.5 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 135 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 85 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2022/01/31 AT 12 UTC:
16.4 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 140 NM SW: 130 NM NW: 90 NM
34 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 65 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 300639
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 30/01/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.1 S / 67.1 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 963 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 120 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 60 NO: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/01/2022 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SO: 270 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 130 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

24H: 31/01/2022 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SO: 230 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 35

36H: 31/01/2022 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SO: 250 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 165 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 01/02/2022 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SO: 305 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SO: 185 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 01/02/2022 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SO: 335 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SO: 215 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 02/02/2022 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SO: 315 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SO: 215 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/02/2022 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 280 SO: 305 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 75

120H: 04/02/2022 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 305 SO: 350 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SO: 220 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SO: 90 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 70 NO: 70

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5+ CI=5.0+

EN FIN DE NUIT, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE BATSIRAI S'EST
LEGEREMENT DEGRADE AVEC LA PERTE TEMPORAIRE DE LA CONFIGURATION EN
OEIL. SUR LES DERNIERES HEURES, L'OEIL EST REAPPARU EN IMAGERIE
VISIBLE ET TEND A S'AMELIORER EN DEFINITION. L'IMAGERIE MICRO-ONDES
TEMOIGNE D'UN COEUR ENCORE TRES COMPACT. LES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES
ET OBJECTIVES (DONT UNE PASS SMOS A 72 KT CE MATIN) SONT EN ACCORD
AVEC L'ESTIMATION ACTUELLE D'INTENSITE.

PAS DE GRAND CHANGEMENT SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE.
BATSIRAI POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST, PILOTE PAR
UN FLUX DIRECTEUR GENERE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT PASSER BIEN AU NORD DE RODRIGUES DEMAIN LUNDI.
LUNDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT INCURVER VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS
L'EST. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, BATISIRAI DEVRAIT CEPENDANT
RALENTIR AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU
NORD-EST ET L'APPARITION D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. CETTE SITUATION POUVANT DONNER LIEU A DES FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES, L'INCERTITUDE RESTE PLUS MARQUEE SUR LA
FIN D'ECHEANCE COMME LE REFLETE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES A LONGUE
ECHEANCE. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE A ETE REMONTE UN PEU PLUS NORD EN
ACCORD AVEC LES DERNIERS GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES.

BATSIRAI BENEFICIE ACTUELLEMENT DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES DE TOUT POINT DE VUE. SI UNE CONTRAINTE D'EST A
NORD-EST POURRAIT DE TEMPS EN TEMPS SE FAIRE SENTIR, LES PARAMETRES
ENVIRONEMENTAUX SONT PLUTOT FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION AU COURS
DES 5 PROCHAINS JOURS. DES FLUCTUATIONS D'INTENSITE EN LIEN AVEC UN
OU DES CYCLES DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL SONT PROBABLES
ABOUTISSANT A UN ELARGISSEMENT DU COEUR CENTRAL DU SYSTEME. LA FAIBLE
PREVISIBILITE DE CES MECANISMES ENTRETIENNENT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LA
PREVISION D'INTENSITE.

IMPACTS POSSIBLES SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- POUR RODRIGUES, UNE FAIBLE DEGRADATION (NOTAMMENT UN RISQUE DE
FORTES PLUIES) DES CONDITIONS EST ATTENDUE A PARTIR DE LA NUIT
PROCHAINE JUSQU'A MARI. MAIS ELLE DEVRAIT ETRE ASSEZ LIMITEE PAR LA
DISTANCE DE PASSAGE AINSI QUE LA TAILLE DU PHENOMENE. L'ILE DEVRAIT
RESTER A L'ECART DU COUP DE VENT (MOINS DE 5% DE CHANCES DE
DEPASSEMENT)

- POUR MAURICE ET LA REUNION, UNE DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS DEVRAIT
SE METTRE EN PLACE A PARTIR DE MARDI. TOUTEFOIS SON AMPLEUR EST
ENCORE TRES INCERTAINE EN RAISON DES INCERTITUDES SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE,
L'INTENSITE ET LA STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME. LES DEUX ILES SERONT
PROBABLEMENT CONCERNEES PAR UN RISQUE DE FORTES PLUIES, A MINIMA AU
SEIN DES BANDES PERIPHERIQUES. IL EST POSSIBLE (40-60% DE CHANCES)
EGALEMENT QU'ELLES PUISSENT ETRE CONCERNER PAR DES VENTS DE FORCE
COUP DE VENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 300639
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/2/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/30 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 67.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 963 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/30 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 270 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2022/01/31 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2022/01/31 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2022/02/01 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SW: 305 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2022/02/01 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2022/02/02 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/03 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 280 SW: 305 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 75

120H: 2022/02/04 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 305 SW: 350 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 90 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.0+

AT THE END OF THE NIGHT, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION OF BATSIRAI HAS
SLIGHTLY DEGRADED WITH THE TEMPORARY LOSS OF THE EYE CONFIGURATION.
IN THE LAST HOURS, THE EYE HAS REAPPEARED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND
TENDS TO IMPROVE IN DEFINITION. MICROWAVE IMAGING SHOWS A STILL VERY
COMPACT CORE. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES (INCLUDING A SMOS
PASS AT 72 KT THIS MORNING) ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE.

NO BIG CHANGE ON THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY. BATSIRAI CONTINUES ITS TRACK
TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST, DRIVEN BY A STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS WELL NORTH OF RODRIGUES
TOMORROW MONDAY.
ON MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY CURVE TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARDS. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, BATISIRAI SHOULD SLOW DOWN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE
APPEARANCE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THIS SITUATION
MAY GIVE RISE TO CONFLICTING STEERING FLOWS, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS MORE
PRONOUNCED AT THE END OF THE RANGE AS REFLECTED IN THE VARIOUS
LONG-RANGE MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED A BIT NORTH
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

BATSIRAI IS CURRENTLY ENJOYING GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FROM ALL
POINTS OF VIEW. WHILE AN EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT COULD BE
FELT AT TIMES, THE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ARE RATHER FAVORABLE FOR
AN INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
RELATED TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE(S) ARE LIKELY LEADING TO AN
ENLARGEMENT OF THE CENTRAL CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW PREDICTABILITY
OF THESE MECHANISMS MAINTAIN AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY
PREDICTION.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- FOR RODRIGUES, A SLIGHT DEGRADATION OF THE CONDITIONS (NOTABLY A
RISK OF HEAVY RAINS) IS EXPECTED FROM THE NEXT NIGHT UNTIL HUSBAND.
BUT IT SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED BY THE DISTANCE OF PASSAGE AND THE
SIZE OF THE PHENOMENON. THE ISLAND SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE GALE
(LESS THAN 5% CHANCE OF OVERTAKING)

- FOR MAURITIUS AND REUNION, A DEGRADATION OF THE CONDITIONS SHOULD
START FROM TUESDAY. HOWEVER ITS EXTENT IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES ON THE TRAJECTORY, THE INTENSITY AND THE
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE TWO ISLANDS WILL PROBABLY BE CONCERNED
BY A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN, AT LEAST WITHIN THE PERIPHERAL BANDS. IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE (40-60% CHANCE) THAT THEY COULD BE AFFECTED BY GALE
FORCE WINDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 300623
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/01/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 30/01/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 963 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 67.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/01/30 AT 18 UTC:
16.5 S / 65.4 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 60 NM SE: 95 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 45 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/01/31 AT 06 UTC:
16.2 S / 63.7 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 75 NM SE: 115 NM SW: 125 NM NW: 75 NM
34 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 55 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 300300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 220130023416
2022013000 08S BATSIRAI 007 01 285 09 SATL 045
T000 176S 0682E 080 R064 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 010 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 035 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 172S 0666E 085 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 168S 0646E 090 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 168S 0630E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 172S 0612E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 182S 0576E 100 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 150 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 189S 0542E 100 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 189S 0520E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 68.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 68.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.2S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.8S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.8S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.2S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.2S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.9S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.9S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 67.8E.
30JAN22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
637 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.
//
0822012318 83S 883E 20
0822012400 88S 890E 20
0822012406 93S 896E 20
0822012412 98S 898E 20
0822012418 103S 901E 25
0822012500 110S 904E 25
0822012506 115S 907E 20
0822012512 122S 909E 20
0822012518 132S 906E 20
0822012600 142S 896E 25
0822012606 144S 881E 30
0822012612 150S 866E 30
0822012618 157S 852E 30
0822012700 164S 837E 35
0822012706 169S 819E 45
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012806 183S 747E 45
0822012812 183S 734E 45
0822012818 183S 724E 50
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012900 182S 716E 55
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012918 178S 691E 75
0822012918 178S 691E 75
0822012918 178S 691E 75
0822013000 176S 682E 80
0822013000 176S 682E 80
0822013000 176S 682E 80
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 68.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 68.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.2S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.8S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.8S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.2S 61.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.2S 57.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.9S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.9S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 67.8E.
30JAN22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
637 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 300043
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 30/01/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.5 S / 68.2 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 963 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 35
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SO: 50 NO: 30
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1002 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/01/2022 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 31/01/2022 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 205 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 31/01/2022 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 230 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SO: 130 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SO: 45 NO: 35

48H: 01/02/2022 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SO: 285 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 175 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 01/02/2022 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SO: 295 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SO: 185 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 02/02/2022 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 305 SO: 295 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 205 NO: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 03/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SO: 295 NO: 285
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 65

120H: 04/02/2022 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SO: 335 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 80 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE BATSIRAI
A CONTINUE DE S'AMELIORER AVEC LA PRESENCE REGULIERE D'UN OEIL MAL
DEFINI. LES PASSES MICRO-ONDES GMI DE 1913Z ET AMSR2 DE 2107Z
MONTRENT PAR CONTRE UN COEUR BIEN DEFINI AUTOUR D'UN OEIL NET. EN
ACCORD AVEC LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES, L'INTENSITE
EST REHAUSSE A 80KT.

PAS DE GRAND CHANGEMENT SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE.
BATSIRAI POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST, PILOTE PAR
UN FLUX DIRECTEUR GENERE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT PASSER AU NORD DE RODRIGUES DEMAIN LUNDI ENTRE 200 ET 500KM
PROBABLEMENT.
LUNDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT INCURVER VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS
L'EST. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, BATISIRAI DEVRAIT CEPENDANT
RALENTIR AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU
NORD-EST ET L'APPARITION D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. CETTE SITUATION POUVANT DONNER LIEU A DES FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES, L'INCERTITUDE EST NETTEMENT PLUS MARQUEE
SUR LA FIN D'ECHEANCE COMME LE REFLETE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES A
LONGUE ECHEANCE.

BATSIRAI BENEFICIE ACTUELLEMENT DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES DE TOUT POINT DE VUE. UN CREUSEMENT MARGINAL SEMBLE
ENCORE POSSIBLE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. D'ICI LUNDI, UNE FAIBLE
CONTRAINTE DE NORD A NORD-EST POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT SE METTRE EN
PLACE ET FAVORISER UN LEGER AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME RENFORCE PAR
LA PETITE TAILLE DE DERNIER. DES VARIATIONS PLUS IMPORTANTES RESTENT
POSSIBLES. A PARTIR DE MARDI, L'ENSEMBLE DES CONDITIONS DEVRAIENT
REDEVENIR GLOBALEMENT FAVORABLES CE QUI SE TRADUIT PAR UNE
INTENSIFICATION ENVISAGEE PAR LES DIFFERENTS MODELES NUMERIQUES AINSI
QU'UN ELARGISSEMENT DU COEUR DU SYSTEME. UNE INTENSITE AU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL OU CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE SEMBLE DONC TRES
PROBABLE A CES ECHEANCES. LA PRESENTE PREVISION D'INTENSITE NE TIENT
CEPENDANT PAS COMPTE DE LA POSSIBLE SURVENUE D'UN CYCLE DE
REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. ELLE RESTE DONC ENCORE INCERTAINE DANS
LE DETAIL.

IMPACTS POSSIBLES SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- POUR RODRIGUES, UNE FAIBLE DEGRADATION (NOTAMMENT UN RISQUE DE
FORTES PLUIES) DES CONDITIONS EST ATTENDUE A PARTIR DE LA NUIT
PROCHAINE JUSQU'A MARI. MAIS ELLE DEVRAIT ETRE ASSEZ LIMITEE PAR LA
DISTANCE DE PASSAGE AINSI QUE LA TAILLE DU PHENOMENE. L'ILE DEVRAIT
RESTER A L'ECART DU COUP DE VENT (MOINS DE 5% DE CHANCES DE
DEPASSEMENT)

- POUR MAURICE ET LA REUNION, UNE DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS DEVRAIT
SE METTRE EN PLACE A PARTIR DE MARDI. TOUTEFOIS SON AMPLEUR EST
ENCORE TRES INCERTAINE EN RAISON DES INCERTITUDES SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE,
L'INTENSITE ET LA STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME. LES DEUX ILES SERONT
PROBABLEMENT CONCERNEES PAR UN RISQUE DE FORTES PLUIES, A MINIMA AU
SEIN DES BANDES PERIPHERIQUES. IL EST POSSIBLE (40-60% DE CHANCES)
EGALEMENT QU'ELLES PUISSENT ETRE CONCERNER PAR DES VENTS DE FORCE
COUP DE VENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 300023
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 30/01/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 30/01/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 963 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 68.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 25 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/01/30 AT 12 UTC:
17.0 S / 66.3 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 60 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 45 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/01/31 AT 00 UTC:
16.6 S / 64.5 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 110 NM NW: 70 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 30 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 291952
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/2/20212022
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 29/01/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.8 S / 69.2 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SO: 20 NO: 20

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/01/2022 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

24H: 30/01/2022 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 220 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 31/01/2022 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SO: 215 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 45

48H: 31/01/2022 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SO: 295 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SO: 155 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 45 NO: 45

60H: 01/02/2022 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SO: 315 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SO: 205 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 01/02/2022 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SO: 325 NO: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SO: 215 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/02/2022 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 55.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SO: 240 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 165 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 65

120H: 03/02/2022 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 280 SO: 325 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SO: 205 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 80 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 70 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5+

AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE BATSIRAI
A CONTINUE DE S'AMELIORER AVEC UN CENTRE AU MILIEU D'UN CDO AUX
SOMMETS PARTICULIEREMENT FROIDS ET PEUT ETRE LE DEBUT D'UN OEIL SUR
LES DONNEES INFRAROUGE. DE L'ACTIVITE ELECTRIQUE EST EGALEMENT
DETECTEE PAR LE RESEAU WWLLN PROCHE DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE. LES
PASSES ASCAT DE 1650Z ET 1738Z AINSI QUE LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS
DE 1424Z MONTRENT QUE LE COEUR DE BATISRAI EST TOUJOURS TRES COMPACT,
DE L'ORDRE DE 100KM DE DIAMETRE. UNE PASSE SMAP A 1331Z DONNAIT 72KT
EN VENT MAXIMUM, TANDIS QUE LES PASSES ASCAT PARTIELLES DONNAIENT
58KT. AU VU DE SES ELEMENTS ET EN ACCORD AVEC LES ESTIMATIONS
OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES, BATSIRAI EST CLASSE CYCLONE TROPICAL 70KT.

PAS DE GRAND CHANGEMENT SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE.
BATSIRAI POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST, PILOTE PAR
UN FLUX DIRECTEUR GENERE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT PASSER AU NORD DE RODRIGUES LUNDI ENTRE 150 ET 400KM
PROBABLEMENT.
LUNDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PROGRESSIVEMENT INCURVER VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST AVEC LE DEPLACEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE VERS
L'EST. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, BATISIRAI DEVRAIT CEPENDANT
RALENTIR AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT DE LA DORSALE PROCHE EQUATORIALE AU
NORD-EST ET L'APPARITION D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE. CETTE SITUATION POUVANT DONNER LIEU A DES FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES, L'INCERTITUDE EST DONC NETTEMENT PLUS
MARQUEE SUR LA FIN D'ECHEANCE COMME LE REFLETE LES DIFFERENTS MODELES
A LONGUE ECHEANCE.

BATSIRAI BENEFICIE ACTUELLEMENT DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES A TOUT POINT DE VUE. LE SYSTEME POURRAIT DONC
S'INTENSIFIER CETTE NUIT ET EVENTUELLEMENT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE. DEMAIN ET LUNDI, UNE FAIBLE CONTRAINTE DE
NORD POURRAIT TEMPORAIREMENT SE METTRE EN PLACE ET FAVORISER UN LEGER
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME RENFORCE PAR SA PETITE TAILLE. DES
VARIATIONS PLUS IMPORTANTES RESTENT POSSIBLES. A PARTIR DE MARDI,
L'ENSEMBLE DES CONDITIONS DEVRAIENT REDEVENIR GLOBALEMENT FAVORABLES
CE QUI SE TRADUIT PAR UNE INTENSIFICATION ENVISAGEE PAR LES
DIFFERENTS MODELES NUMERIQUES AINSI QU'UN ELARGISSEMENT DU COEUR DU
SYSTEME. UNE INTENSITE AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL OU CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE SEMBLE DONC TRES PROBABLE. LA PRESENTE PREVISION
D'INTENSITE NE TIENT CEPENDANT PAS COMPTE DE LA POSSIBLE SURVENUE
D'UN CYCLE DE REMPLACEMENT DU MUR DE L'OEIL. ELLE RESTE DONC ENCORE
INCERTAINE DANS LE DETAIL.

IMPACTS POSSIBLES SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
- POUR RODRIGUES, UNE DEGRADATION (NOTAMMENT UN RISQUE DE FORTES
PLUIES) DES CONDITIONS EST ATTENDUE A PARTIR DE DEMAIN SOIR. MAIS
ELLE DEVRAIT ETRE LIMITEE PAR LA DISTANCE DE PASSAGE AINSI QUE LA
TAILLE DU PHENOMENE. L'ILE DEVRAIT RESTE A L'ECART DU COUP DE VENT
(5% DE CHANCES DE DEPASSEMENT)

- POUR MAURICE ET LA REUNION, UNE DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS
DEVRAIENT SE METTRE EN PLACE A PARTIR DE MARDI. TOUTEFOIS SON AMPLEUR
EST ENCORE TRES INCERTAINE EN RAISON DES INCERTITUDES SUR LA
TRAJECTOIRE, L'INTENSITE ET LA STRUCTURE DU SYSTEME. LES DEUX ILES
SERONT PROBABLEMENT CONCERNE PAR UN RISQUE DE FORTES PLUIES, A MINIMA
AU SEIN DES BANDES PERIPHERIQUES. IL EST POSSIBLE (40-60% DE CHANCES)
EGALEMENT QU'ELLES PUISSENT ETRE CONCERNER PAR LA FORCE COUP DE VENT.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 291952
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/2/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/29 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 69.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/30 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2022/01/30 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 220 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2022/01/31 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

48H: 2022/01/31 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 295 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2022/02/01 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SW: 315 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2022/02/01 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SW: 325 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/02 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 55.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65

120H: 2022/02/03 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 280 SW: 325 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+

DURING THE LAST HOURS, BATSIRAI'S CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
WITH A CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CDO WITH PARTICULARLY COLD CLOUD
TOPS AND MAYBE THE START OF AN EYE ON THE INFRARED DATA. ELECTRICAL
ACTIVITY IS ALSO DETECTED BY THE WWLLN NETWORK NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
PHENOMENON. THE ASCAT SWATHS OF 1650Z AND 1738Z AND THE 1424Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE OF BATISRAI IS STILL VERY
TIGHT, ABOUT 100KM IN DIAMETER. A SMAP SWATH AT 1331Z GAVE 72KT IN
MAXIMUM WIND, WHILE THE PARTIAL ASCAT SWATHS GAVE 58KT. IN VIEW OF
THESE ELEMENTS AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATIONS, BATSIRAI IS CLASSIFIED AS A 70KT TROPICAL CYCLONE.

NO MAJOR CHANGE IN TRACK PHILOSOPHY. BATSIRAI CONTINUES ITS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, DRIVEN BY A STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF RODRIGUES ON
MONDAY BETWEEN 150 AND 400KM PROBABLY.
ON MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY CURVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS
THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER,
BATISIRAI IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THIS SITUATION MAY LEAD TO CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOWS, UNCERTAINTY IS FAR MORE MARKED FOR THE LATE RANGE AS
REFLECTED IN THE VARIOUS LONG-TERM PREDICTIONS.

BATSIRAI IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE STAGE OF
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TOMORROW AND MONDAY, A WEAK NORTHERLY
CONSTRAINT COULD TEMPORARILY APPEAR AND FAVOR A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM ENHANCED BY ITS SMALL SIZE. LARGER FLUCTUATIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE.FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ALL THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
FAVOURABLE AGAIN, WHICH MEANS THAT THE DIFFERENT NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
EXPECTING AN INTENSIFICATION AND A WIDENING OF THE SYSTEM'S CORE.
TROPICAL OR INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE SEEMS THEREFORE VERY
LIKELY. HOWEVER, THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THE POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. IT
IS THEREFORE STILL UNCERTAIN IN DETAIL.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- FOR RODRIGUES, A DEGRADATION (NOTABLY A RISK OF HEAVY RAINS) OF THE
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM TOMORROW EVENING. BUT IT SHOULD BE
LIMITED BY THE DISTANCE OF PASSAGE AND THE SIZE OF THE PHENOMENON.
THE ISLAND SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE GALE WINDS (5% CHANCE OF
OVERTAKING)

- FOR MAURITIUS AND REUNION, A DEGRADATION OF THE CONDITIONS MAY
START FROM TUESDAY. HOWEVER ITS EXTENT IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES ON THE TRACK, INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF
THE SYSTEM. THE TWO ISLANDS WILL PROBABLY BE CONCERNED BY A RISK OF
HEAVY RAIN, AT LEAST WITHIN THE PERIPHERAL BANDS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE
(40-60% CHANCE) THAT THEY COULD BE AFFECTED BY GALE FORCE WINDS.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 291833
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2022
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 29/01/2022 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 69.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/01/30 AT 06 UTC:
17.6 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND = 85 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 15 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

24H, VALID 2022/01/30 AT 18 UTC:
17.3 S / 65.7 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 120 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 20 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 291500
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 220129125637
2022012912 08S BATSIRAI 006 01 275 08 SATL 020
T000 180S 0699E 070 R064 000 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 178S 0683E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 175S 0664E 085 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 173S 0647E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 173S 0631E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 180S 0595E 095 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 150 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 187S 0562E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 190S 0543E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 69.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 69.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 17.8S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.5S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.3S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.3S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.0S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.7S 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.0S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 69.5E.
29JAN22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 378 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z AND 301500Z.//
0822012318 83S 883E 20
0822012400 88S 890E 20
0822012406 93S 896E 20
0822012412 98S 898E 20
0822012418 103S 901E 25
0822012500 110S 904E 25
0822012506 115S 907E 20
0822012512 122S 909E 20
0822012518 132S 906E 20
0822012600 142S 896E 25
0822012606 144S 881E 30
0822012612 150S 866E 30
0822012618 157S 852E 30
0822012700 164S 837E 35
0822012706 169S 819E 45
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012806 183S 747E 45
0822012812 183S 734E 45
0822012818 183S 724E 50
0822012900 182S 712E 55
0822012900 182S 712E 55
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012906 181S 707E 65
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
0822012912 180S 699E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 69.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 69.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 17.8S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.5S 66.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.3S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.3S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.0S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.7S 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.0S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 17.9S 69.5E.
29JAN22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 378
NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT MATHURIN, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z AND 301500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 291244
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/2/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 29/01/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.9 S / 69.9 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 982 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 30/01/2022 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 95 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 45

24H: 30/01/2022 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 140 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 75 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

36H: 31/01/2022 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SO: 240 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 100 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SO: 35 NO: 35

48H: 31/01/2022 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SO: 35 NO: 35

60H: 01/02/2022 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 325 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SO: 185 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

72H: 01/02/2022 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 335 SO: 305 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SO: 195 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 45

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/02/2022 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SO: 270 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SO: 195 NO: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 03/02/2022 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 240 SO: 345 NO: 305
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SO: 205 NO: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 90 SO: 80 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 70 NO: 70

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0+

CET APRES-MIDI, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE BATSIRAI EST
PROGRESSIVEMENT REVENUE A UNE CONFIGURATION DE TYPE CDO, AVEC UN
CENTRE DE BASSE COUCHE SITUE AU PLUS PRES DE LA ZONE DES BURST DE
CONVECTION. LE SOMMET DE CE CDO S'EST REFROIDI, ET LA BANDE INCURVEE
S'EST DISSOUTE AU FIL DES HEURES. L'IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE POINTE LA
PERSISTANCE D'UNE CONTRAINTE EN ALTITUDE (ARC DE CISAILLEMENT) DE
SECTEUR EST A NORD-EST. TOUTEFOIS CETTE CONTRAINTE EST A RELATIVISER
DU FAIT DU DA PLACEMENT DU SYSTEME VERS L'OUEST. L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE
AMSR2 DE 0836Z ET CELLE DE LA GMI PARTIELLE DE 0556Z MONTRE UNE
CONSOLIDATION DU COEUR DE BASSE COUCHE. L'INTENSITE DES VENTS MAX EST
BASEE SUR UN CONSENSUS DE DONNEES OBJECTIVES (SATCON, ADT, AIDT) ET
SOUTENUE PAR L'ANALYSE DVORAK.

PAS DE GRAND CHANGEMENT SUR LA PHILOSOPHIE DE LA TRAJECTOIRE.
BATSIRAI POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST TOUT EN
RALENTISSANT LEGEREMENT. LE SYSTEME EST PILOTE PAR UN FLUX DIRECTEUR
GENERE PAR LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE. A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LE
RENFORCEMENT DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR DEVRAIT
INCURVER LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST PUIS L'OUEST ALORS
QUE LE SYSTEME TRANSITERA A PROXIMITE DE L'EST DES MASCAREIGNES AVEC
UNE TRAJECTOIRE PASSANT AU NORD DE RODRIGUES LUNDI. DE PLUS, LA MISE
EN PLACE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME EN
DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, POURRAIT GENERER TEMPORAIREMENT DES FLUX
DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES, MARQUANT AINSI EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE UN PEU PLUS D'INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE.
A PARTIR DE MARDI, BATSIRAI DEVRAIT INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE AU
SUD-OUEST, AU NORD DES ILES SA URS, SOUS L'EFFET D'UNE FAIBLESSE DE
LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD DE MADAGASCAR. UNE FORTE DISPERSION
RESTE PRESENTE DANS LES PREVISIONS ENSEMBLISTES, D'OU UNE FORTE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE ET LA DISTANCE DE PASSAGE A PROXIMITE
DES TERRES HABITEES DE L'ARCHIPEL DES MASCAREIGNES.

BATSIRAI BENEFICIE ACTUELLEMENT DE BONNES CONDITIONS
ENVIRONNEMENTALES. LE MAINTIEN D'UNE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-EST NE
PARVIENT PAS A LIMITER SON INTENSIFICATION DU FAIT DE SON DEPLACEMENT
VERS L'OUEST. IL EST A NOTER QU'AVEC UNE CIRCULATION DE PETITE
TAILLE, DES FLUCTUATIONS RAPIDES D'INTENSITE, DIFFICILEMENT
PREVISIBLES, RESTENT TOUT A FAIT POSSIBLES.A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE,
GRACE A UNE MEILLEURE CONVERGENCE DE SURFACE COTE EQUATORIAL, LA
CONSTITUTION D'UNE CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE PLUS LARGE POURRAIT
PERMETTRE UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS FRANCHE. TOUTEFOIS, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT ALORS ETRE PLUS OU MOINS INFLUENCE PAR DU CISAILLEMENT MODERE
A FORT EN ALTITUDE, APPORTANT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE POTENTIEL
D'INTENSIFICATION. UNE INTENSIFICATION AU STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL
SEMBLE ENVISAGEABLE AU MOMENT OU LE SYSTEME CIRCULERA AU NORD-EST DE
L'ILE RODRIGUES.

IMPACTS POSSIBLES SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
BATSIRAI RESTERA A L'ECART DES TERRES HABITEES JUSQU'A DIMANCHE
INCLUS. LUNDI, IL POURRAIT CIRCULER A PROXIMITE DU NORD DE RODRIGUES
A UNE DISTANCE ENCORE INCERTAINE. TOUTEFOIS LES PREMIERES PLUIES
POURRAIENT CONCERNER RODRIGUES EN FIN DE WEEK-END ET S'INTENSIFIER EN
DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, ACCOMPAGNEES DE BONNES RAFALES. L'ILE
MAURICE POURRAIT ETRE ENSUITE CONCERNEE A PARTIR DE MARDI / MERCREDI,
LA AUSSI AVEC UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE MAIS AUSSI
SUR L'INTENSITE QU'AURA LE SYSTEME A CE MOMENT ET SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE
DE LA DEGRADATION. AVEC DES PROBABILITES DE TEMPS TRES PERTURBE ET DE
MER DANGEREUSE QUI AUGMENTENT EN DEBUT OU MILIEU DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, LES HABITANTS DES MASCAREIGNES (RODRIGUES, MAURICE ET LA
REUNION) SONT INVITES A SUIVRE DE PRES L'EVOLUTION DES PREVISIONS ET
A SE PREPARER A UNE EVENTUELLE MENACE D'UN SYSTEME TROPICAL MATURE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 291244
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/2/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 69.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/30 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2022/01/30 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2022/01/31 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 240 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2022/01/31 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2022/02/01 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 325 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2022/02/01 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 335 SW: 305 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/02 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 195 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2022/02/03 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 240 SW: 345 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+.

THIS AFTERNOON, THE BATSIRAI CLOUD PATTERN GRADUALLY RETURNED TO A
CDO PATTERN, WITH A LOW LEVEL CENTER LOCATED CLOSEST TO THE
CONVECTIVE BURST. THE TOP OF THIS CDO HAS COOLED, AND THE CURVED BAND
HAS DISSOLVED. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE PERSISTENCE OF WIND
SHEAR ALOFT (SHEAR ARC) FROM EAST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER THIS
CONSTRAINT IS TO BE PUT INTO PERSPECTIVE BECAUSE OF THE WESTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE 0836Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE
PARTIAL 0556Z GMI ONE DEPICT THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LAYER
CORE. THE MAX WIND INTENSITY IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF OBJECTIVE
DATA (SATCON, ADT, AIDT) AND SUPPORTED BY THE DVORAK ANALYSIS.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY. BATSIRAI CONTINUES ITS
TRACK TOWARDS WEST-NORTHWEST WHILE SLOWING DOWN SLIGHTLY. THE SYSTEM
IS DRIVEN BY A STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FROM
SUNDAY, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR SHOULD BEND THE TRAJECTORY TOWARDS WEST-NORTH-WEST THEN
WEST WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NEAR THE EAST OF THE MASCARENES WITH
A TRAJECTORY PASSING NORTH OF RODRIGUES ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION, THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE EQUATOR TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK, COULD TEMPORARILY GENERATE
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS, THUS MARKING EARLY NEXT WEEK A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORECAST TRAJECTORY. FROM TUESDAY, BATSIRAI
SHOULD CURVE ITS TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, NORTH OF THE SISTER ISLANDS,
DUE TO A WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. A
STRONG DISPERSION IS STILL PRESENT IN THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS, HENCE A
STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND DISTANCE OF PASSAGE NEAR THE
INHABITED LANDS OF THE MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO.

BATSIRAI CURRENTLY BENEFITS FROM CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THE MAINTENANCE OF A NORTH-EAST CONSTRAINT DOES NOT MANAGE TO LIMIT
ITS INTENSIFICATION BECAUSE OF ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT WITH A SMALL CIRCULATION, RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY,
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT, ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE. FROM SUNDAY, THANKS
TO A BETTER CONVERGENCE OF THE MONSOON FLOW, THE CONSTITUTION OF A
LARGER LOW COULD ALLOW A MORE FRANK INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BE MORE OR LESS INFLUENCED BY MODERATE TO STRONG
SHEAR ALOFT, BRINGING UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL OF
INTENSIFICATION. AN INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE SEEMS
POSSIBLE WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
BATSIRAI WILL STAY AWAY FROM INHABITED LANDS UNTIL SUNDAY INCLUDED.
ON MONDAY, IT COULD CIRCULATE NEAR THE NORTH OF RODRIGUES AT A
DISTANCE STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER THE FIRST RAINS COULD CONCERN
RODRIGUES AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTENSIFY AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTS. MAURITIUS COULD BE CONCERNED
FROM TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY, ALSO WITH A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TRAJECTORY BUT ALSO ON THE INTENSITY THAT WILL HAVE THE SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME AND ON THE CHRONOLOGY OF THE DEGRADATION. WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF VERY DISTURBED WEATHER AND DANGEROUS SEAS INCREASING
AT THE BEGINNING OR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE INHABITANTS OF THE
MASCARENE ISLANDS (RODRIGUES, MAURITIUS AND REUNION) ARE INVITED TO
FOLLOW CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECASTS AND TO PREPARE
THEMSELVES FOR A POSSIBLE THREAT OF A MATURE TROPICAL SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 291219
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 29/01/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI) 982 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 69.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
15 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/01/30 AT 00 UTC:
17.6 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 80 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2022/01/30 AT 12 UTC:
17.4 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 55 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 75 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 40 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 15 NM SE: 20 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 290635
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/2/20212022
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 29/01/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4 S / 71.2 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 6 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 987 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/01/2022 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 130 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SO: 35 NO: 45

24H: 30/01/2022 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SO: 110 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 75 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 0 NO: 45

36H: 30/01/2022 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SO: 260 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SO: 110 NO: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 45 NO: 45

48H: 31/01/2022 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 280 SO: 295 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 55 NO: 45

60H: 31/01/2022 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SO: 315 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SO: 185 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 75 NO: 55

72H: 01/02/2022 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SO: 335 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 65

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/02/2022 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SO: 250 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SO: 65 NO: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

120H: 03/02/2022 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SO: 250 NO: 325
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SO: 175 NO: 220
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SO: 60 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 70

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'AMELIORATION DE LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE DE BATSIRAI S'EST AMELIOREE AVEC UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES
QUI EST RESTE SOUS LA CONVECTION PRINCIPALE. LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE RESSEMBLANT DAVANTAGE A UN CDO A 00Z, S'EST TRANSFORME
PROGRESSIVEMENT EN UN SYSTEME A BANDE INCURVEE, AVEC UNE BANDE FROIDE
S'ETENDANT AU SECTEUR SUD-EST. LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELLITES MONTRE
UN CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST PERSISTENT, SUGGERE PAR L'IMAGERIE
VISIBLE ET CORROBORE PAR LES DERNIERES DONNEES DU CIMMS. L'INTENSITE
DES VENTS MAX EST BASEE SUR LES DONNEES DE LA SMAP DE 0121Z, AINSI
QUE L'ASCAT-B DE 0507Z QUI SUGGERE DES VENTS DE FORCE TEMPETE DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD. PAR CONSEQUENT AU VU DE CES ELEMENTS OBJECTIFS
BATSIRAI A ETE ELEVA AU STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE.

BATSIRAI DEVRAIT INCURVER LEGEREMENT SA TRAJECTOIRE AUJOURD'HUI VERS
L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST TOUT EN RALENTISSANT, ATTIRE PAR UNE LEGERE
FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE.
A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LE RENFORCEMENT DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS AU SUD
DE MADAGASCAR DEVRAIT INCURVER LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST
PUIS L'OUEST ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME TRANSITERA A PROXIMITE DE L'EST DES
MASCAREIGNES AVEC UNE TRAJECTOIRE PASSANT AU NORD DE RODRIGUES LUNDI.
DE PLUS, LA MISE EN PLACE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU
NORD-EST DU SYSTEME EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, POURRAIT GENERER
TEMPORAIREMENT DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES. L'INCERTITUDE SUR
LA TRAJECTOIRE AUGMENTE SENSIBLEMENT A PARTIR DE CE MOMENT LA. UNE
FORTE DISPERSION RESTE PRESENTE DANS LES PREVISIONS ENSEMBLISTES,
D'OU UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE ET LA DISTANCE DE
PASSAGE A PROXIMITE DES TERRES HABITEES DE L'ARCHIPEL DES
MASCAREIGNES.


LE MAINTIEN D'UNE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-EST DEVRAIT PLUS OU MOINS
CONTENIR L'INTENSITE POUR CE WEEK-END. MAIS AVEC UNE CIRCULATION
RESTANT DE PETITE TAILLE, DES FLUCTUATIONS RAPIDES D'INTENSITE,
DIFFICILEMENT PREVISIBLES, RESTENT TOUT A FAIT POSSIBLES. A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE ET SURTOUT LUNDI, LA CONSTITUTION D'UNE CIRCULATION
DEPRESSIONNAIRE PLUS LARGE ET UNE EVOLUTION DU SYSTEME A PROXIMITE DE
LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE POURRAIENT PERMETTRE UNE INTENSIFICATION, GRACE
A UNE MEILLEURE CONVERGENCE DE SURFACE, UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE ET UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. TOUTEFOIS, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT ALORS ETRE PLUS OU MOINS INFLUENCE PAR LA BORDURE SUD D'UNE
ZONE A CISAILLEMENT MODERE, APPORTANT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE
POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION. UNE INTENSIFICATION AU STADE DE CYCLONE
TROPICAL SEMBLE ENVISAGEABLE AU MOMENT OU LE SYSTEME CIRCULERA AU
NORD-OUEST DE L'ILE RODRIGUES.

IMPACTS POSSIBLES SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
BATSIRAI RESTERA A L'ECART DES TERRES HABITEES JUSQU'A DIMANCHE
INCLUS. LUNDI, IL POURRAIT CIRCULER A PROXIMITE DU NORD DE RODRIGUES
A UNE DISTANCE ENCORE INCERTAINE. L'ILE MAURICE POURRAIT ETRE ENSUITE
CONCERNEE A PARTIR DE MARDI / MERCREDI, LA AUSSI AVEC UNE FORTE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE MAIS AUSSI SUR L'INTENSITE QU'AURA LE
SYSTEME A CE MOMENT ET SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE DE LA DEGRADATION. AVEC DES
PROBABILITES DE TEMPS TRES PERTURBE ET DE MER DANGEREUSE QUI
AUGMENTENT EN DEBUT OU MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LES HABITANTS DES
MASCAREIGNES (RODRIGUES, MAURICE ET LA REUNION) SONT INVITES A SUIVRE
DE PRES L'EVOLUTION DES PREVISIONS ET A SE PREPARER A UNE EVENTUELLE
MENACE D'UN SYSTEME TROPICAL MATURE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 290635
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/2/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/29 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 71.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/29 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2022/01/30 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 45

36H: 2022/01/30 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2022/01/31 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 280 SW: 295 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2022/01/31 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 315 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

72H: 2022/02/01 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SW: 335 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/02 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2022/02/03 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SW: 60 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE BATSIRAI CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED WITH
A LOW LEVEL CENTER THAT REMAINED UNDER THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE CLOUD
PATTERN LOOKING MORE LIKE A CDO AT 00Z, HAS PROGRESSIVELY TURNED INTO
A CURVED BAND PATTERN, WITH A COLD BAND EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR,
SUGGESTED BY THE VISIBLE IMAGERY AND CORROBORATED BY THE LATEST CIMMS
DATA. THE MAX WIND INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE SMAP DATA FROM 0121Z, AS
WELL AS THE ASCAT-B FROM 0507Z WHICH SUGGESTS STORM WINDS FORCE IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. GIVEN THESE OBJECTIVE DATA, BATSIRAI HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.

BATSIRAI IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SLIGHTLY TODAY TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WHILE SLOWING DOWN, ATTRACTED BY A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FROM SUNDAY, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD CURVE THE TRACK TOWARDS
WEST-NORTH-WEST THEN WEST WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK CLOSE TO THE
EAST OF THE MASCARENES WITH A TRACK DRIFTING NORTH OF RODRIGUES ON
MONDAY. IN ADDITION, THE SETTING OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL TO THE
NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, COULD
TEMPORARILY GENERATE CONTRADICTORY DIRECTING FLOWS. THE UNCERTAINTY
ON THE TRACK INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THAT MOMENT. A STRONG
DISPERSION IS STILL PRESENT IN THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS, HENCE A STRONG
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND THE DISTANCE OF PASSAGE NEAR THE
INHABITED LANDS OF THE MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO.

THE SUSTAINED NORTHEASTERN CONSTRAINTS ALOFT SHOULD MORE OR LESS
CONTAIN THE DEPENING FOR THIS WEEKEND. BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION REMAIN SMALL, RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY, DIFFICULT
TO PREDICT, REMAIN QUITE POSSIBLE. FROM SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY FROM
MONDAY, THE CONSTITUTION OF A LARGER LOW CIRCULATION AND AN EVOLUTION
OF THE SYSTEM NEAR THE UPPER RIDGE COULD ALLOW AN INTENSIFICATION,
THANKS TO A BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
A STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BE MORE
OR LESS INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A MODERATE SHEAR ZONE,
BRINGING UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL.
INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH SEEMS LIKELY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWEST OF RODRIGUES.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
BATSIRAI WILL STAY AWAY FROM INHABITED LANDS UNTIL SUNDAY INCLUDED.
ON MONDAY, IT COULD TRACK NEAR THE NORTH OF RODRIGUES AT A DISTANCE
STILL UNCERTAIN. MAURITIUS COULD BE CONCERNED FROM TUESDAY /
WEDNESDAY, AGAIN WITH A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRAJECTORY BUT ALSO
ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME AND ON THE CHRONOLOGY OF
THE DEGRADATION. WITH THE PROBABILITY OF VERY DISTURBED WEATHER AND
DANGEROUS SEAS INCREASING AT THE BEGINNING OR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS (RODRIGUES, MAURITIUS AND
REUNION) ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECASTS
AND TO PREPARE THEMSELVES FOR A POSSIBLE THREAT OF A MATURE TROPICAL
SYSTEM.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 290611
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 29/01/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI) 987 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 71.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 80 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 15
NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 40
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/01/29 AT 18 UTC:
18.5 S / 69.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 70 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 40 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 20 NM NW: 25 NM

24H, VALID 2022/01/30 AT 06 UTC:
17.9 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 50 NM SE: 70 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 40 NM NW: 35 NM
48 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 0 NM NW: 25 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 290300
WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 220129020245
2022012900 08S BATSIRAI 005 01 275 11 SATL 050
T000 182S 0712E 055 R050 005 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 183S 0697E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 030 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 181S 0681E 075 R064 005 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 178S 0665E 080 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 176S 0650E 085 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 177S 0621E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 181S 0583E 090 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 183S 0557E 095 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 18.2S 71.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 71.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 18.3S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.1S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.8S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.6S 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.7S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.1S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.3S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 70.8E.
29JAN22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
670 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291500Z AND 300300Z.
//
0822012318 83S 883E 20
0822012400 88S 890E 20
0822012406 93S 896E 20
0822012412 98S 898E 20
0822012418 103S 901E 25
0822012500 110S 904E 25
0822012506 115S 907E 20
0822012512 122S 909E 20
0822012518 132S 906E 20
0822012600 142S 896E 25
0822012606 144S 881E 30
0822012612 150S 866E 30
0822012618 157S 852E 30
0822012700 164S 837E 35
0822012706 169S 819E 45
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012712 180S 796E 90
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012718 185S 777E 65
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012800 184S 761E 50
0822012806 183S 747E 45
0822012812 183S 734E 45
0822012818 183S 724E 50
0822012900 182S 712E 55
0822012900 182S 712E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 18.2S 71.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 71.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 18.3S 69.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 18.1S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.8S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.6S 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.7S 62.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.1S 58.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.3S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 70.8E.
29JAN22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
670 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z
IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z AND 300300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 290053
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/2/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 29/01/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.4 S / 71.5 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 65 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/01/2022 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 110 NO: 65

24H: 30/01/2022 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SO: 110 NO: 65

36H: 30/01/2022 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SO: 185 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

48H: 31/01/2022 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SO: 295 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 45

60H: 31/01/2022 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SO: 280 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SO: 165 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 85 NO: 55

72H: 01/02/2022 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SO: 345 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 175 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SO: 85 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 02/02/2022 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 360 SO: 305 NO: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SO: 215 NO: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

120H: 03/02/2022 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SO: 295 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SO: 185 NO: 195
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SO: 80 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, L'AMELIORATION DE LA CONFIGURATION
NUAGEUSE DE BATSIRAI S'EST CONFIRMEE AVEC UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES
A NOUVEAU SOUS LA CONVECTION. L'ANIMATION SATELITTE MONTRE UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-EST, VISIBLE EGALEMENT SUR
LES DERNIERES DONNEES DU CIMMS.
LES VENTS MAX SONT AINSI ESTIMES A 35 KT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST,
CONFIRMA S PAR LES DERNIERES DONNA ES ASCAT DE 17H30Z.

BATSIRAI DEVRAIT INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST SAMEDI
TOUT EN RALENTISSANT, ATTIRE PAR UNE LEGERE FAIBLESSE DANS LA DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE.
A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LE RENFORCEMENT DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS AU SUD
DE MADAGASCAR DEVRAIT INCURVER LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST
PUIS L'OUEST ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME TRANSITERA A PROXIMITE DE L'EST DES
MASCAREIGNES AVEC UNE TRAJECTOIRE PASSANT AU NORD DE RODRIGUES LUNDI.
DE PLUS, LA MISE EN PLACE D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU
NORD-EST DU SYSTEME EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE, POUVANT MEME TEMPORAIREMENT
DE VENIR PREDOMINANTE EN FIN DE PERIODE, VA DONNER TEMPORAIREMENT DES
FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES. L'INCERTITUDE SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE
AUGMENTE SENSIBLEMENT A PARTIR DE CE MOMENT LA. UNE FORTE DISPERSION
RESTE PRESENTE DANS LES PREVISIONS ENSEMBLISTES, D'OU UNE FORTE
INCERTITUDE SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE ET LA DISTANCE DE PASSAGE A PROXIMITE
DES TERRES HABITEES DES MASCAREIGNES.


LE MAINTIEN D'UNE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-EST DEVRAIT PLUS OU MOINS
CONTENIR L'INTENSITE POUR CE WEEK-END. MAIS AVEC UNE CIRCULATION
RESTANT DE PETITE TAILLE, DES FLUCTUATIONS RAPIDES D'INTENSITE,
DIFFICILEMENT PREVISIBLES, RESTENT TOUT A FAIT POSSIBLES. A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE ET SURTOUT LUNDI, LA CONSTITUTION D'UNE CIRCULATION
DEPRESSIONNAIRE PLUS LARGE ET UNE EVOLUTION DU SYSTEME A PROXIMITE DE
LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE POURRAIENT PERMETTRE UNE INTENSIFICATION, GRACE
A UNE MEILLEURE CONVERGENCE DE SURFACE, UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE ET UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. TOUTEFOIS, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT ALORS ETRE PLUS OU MOINS INFLUENCE PAR LA BORDURE SUD D'UNE
ZONE A CISAILLEMENT MODERE, APPORTANT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE
POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION. UNE INTENSIFICATION EN FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE PUIS CYCLONE TROPICAL SEMBLE ENVISAGEABLE AU MOMENT OU LE
SYSTEME CIRCULERA A PROXIMITE DES TERRES HABITEES.

IMPACTS POSSIBLES SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
BATSIRAI RESTERA A L'ECART DES TERRES HABITEES JUSQU'A DIMANCHE
INCLUS. LUNDI, IL POURRAIT CIRCULER A PROXIMITE DU NORD DE RODRIGUES
A UNE DISTANCE ENCORE INCERTAINE. L'ILE MAURICE POURRAIT ETRE ENSUITE
CONCERNEE A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LA AUSSI AVEC UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE
SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE MAIS AUSSI SUR L'INTENSITE QU'AURA LE SYSTEME A CE
MOMENT ET SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE DE LA DEGRADATION. AVEC DES PROBABILITES
DE TEMPS TRES PERTURBE ET DE MER DANGEREUSE QUI AUGMENTENT EN DEBUT
OU MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LES HABITANTS DES MASCAREIGNES
(RODRIGUES, MAURICE ET LA REUNION) SONT INVITES A SUIVRE DE PRES
L'EVOLUTION DES PREVISIONS ET A SE PREPARER A UNE EVENTUELLE MENACE
D'UN SYSTEME TROPICAL MATURE.L'AMELIORATION DANS=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 290053
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/2/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/29 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 71.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 65 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/29 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 110 NW: 65

24H: 2022/01/30 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 110 NW: 65

36H: 2022/01/30 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2022/01/31 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SW: 295 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

60H: 2022/01/31 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 55

72H: 2022/02/01 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 345 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 175 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/02 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 360 SW: 305 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

120H: 2022/02/03 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SW: 295 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE BATSIRAI CLOUD
PATTERN HAS BEEN CONFIRMED WITH A LOW LEVEL CENTER AGAIN UNDER THE
CONVECTION. THE SATELITTE ANIMATION SHOWS A WEAKENING OF THE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, ALSO VISIBLE ON THE LAST CIMMS DATA.
THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 KT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT, CONFIRMED BY THE LAST ASCAT DATA OF 17H30Z.

BATSIRAI SHOULD CURVE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY WHILE
SLOWING DOWN, ATTRACTED BY A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH. FROM SUNDAY, STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR SHOULD SHIFT THE TRACK WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD THEN WESTWARD
WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE EAST OF THE MASCARENE
ARCHIPELAGO, TRACKING NORTH OF RODRIGUES ON MONDAY. MOREOVER, THE
BUILD-UP OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, WHICH CAN EVEN TEMPORARILY COME TO
DOMINATE AT THE END OF THE PERIODE, WILL TEMPORARILY GIVE COMPETING
STEERING FLOWS. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM THIS MOMENT ON. A STRONG DISPERSION IS STILL PRESENT IN ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS, HENCE A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND DISTANCE OF
PASSAGE NEAR THE INHABITED LANDS OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS.

A REMNANT NORTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT AND NEARBY DRY AIR COULD SOMEWHAT
CONTAIN INTENSITY FOR THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WITH BATSIRAI'S TIGHT
CIRCULATION, RAPID INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE VERY LIKELY AND WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. FROM SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY, A
LARGER CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AND A TRACK GETTING CLOSER TO THE UPPER
RIDGE COULD ALLOW FURTHER INTENSIFICATION THANKS TO A BETTER SURFACE
CONVERGENCE, GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A STRONG OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BE MORE OR LESS INFLUENCED BY THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF A MODERATE SHEAR ZONE, BRINGING UNCERTAINTY ON ITS
POTENTIAL. INTENSIFICATION INTO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND THEN A
TROPICAL CYCLONE SEEMS LIKELY WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK CLOSE TO THE
INHABITED LANDS.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
BATSIRAI WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM INHABITED LANDS UNTIL SUNDAY INCLUDED.
ON MONDAY, IT COULD TRACK NEAR THE NORTH OF RODRIGUES AT A DISTANCE
WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN. MAURITIUS COULD BE IMPACTED FROM WEDNESDAY
ON, WITH A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE DISTANCE OF PASSAGE BUT ALSO ON
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME AND ON THE TIMING OF SEVERE
WEATHER ONSET. WITH THE PROBABILITY OF VERY DISTURBED WEATHER AND
DANGEROUS SEA INCREASING AT THE BEGINNING OR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
INHABITANTS OF THE MASCARENES (RODRIGUES, MAURITIUS AND REUNION) ARE
ADVISED TO FOLLOW CLOSELY THE RSMC'S FORECAST UPDATE=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 290036
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/01/2022
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/2 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 29/01/2022 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 71.5 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 140 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 35
NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/01/29 AT 12 UTC:
18.9 S / 70.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 60 NM SW: 55 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM

24H, VALID 2022/01/30 AT 00 UTC:
18.5 S / 68.3 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 105 NM SW: 100 NM NW: 50 NM
34 KT NE: 0 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 60 NM NW: 35 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 281829
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/2/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 28/01/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.5 S / 72.9 E
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 9 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SO: 165 NO: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SO: 65 NO: 0

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1003 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 29/01/2022 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SO: 100 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 75 NO: 65

24H: 29/01/2022 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SO: 185 NO: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 110 NO: 65

36H: 30/01/2022 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 175 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 95 NO: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 45

48H: 30/01/2022 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SO: 260 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 100 NO: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 55

60H: 31/01/2022 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SO: 240 NO: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 120 NO: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

72H: 31/01/2022 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SO: 315 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SO: 140 NO: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 55

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 01/02/2022 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SO: 205 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SO: 85 NO: 65

120H: 02/02/2022 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 295 SO: 305 NO: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 80 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE
BATSIRAI S'EST LEGEREMENT AMELIORE AVEC UN CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES A
NOUVEAU SOUS LA CONVECTION EN BORDURE DU CDO. NEANMOINS, UN
CISAILLEMNT MODERE DE NORD-EST EST TOUJOURS PRESENT COMME SE MONTRE
L'ARC DE CIRRUS PRESENT SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES SATELITE.
LES VENTS MAX SONT AINSI ESTIMES A 35 KT DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD.

BATSIRAI DEVRAIT INCURVER SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST JUSQU'A
SAMEDI TOUT EN RALENTISSANT, ATTIRE PAR UNE LEGERE FAIBLESSE DANS LA
DORSALE SUBTROPICALE.
A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LE RENFORCEMENT DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS AU SUD
DE MADAGASCAR DEVRAIT INCURVER LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST
PUIS L'OUEST ALORS QUE LE SYSTEME TRANSITERA A PROXIMITE DE L'EST DES
MASCAREIGNES AVEC UNE TRAJECTOIRE PASSANT A PRIORI UN PEU AU NORD DE
RODRIGUES LUNDI. DE PLUS, LA MISE EN PLACE D'UNE DORSALE
PROCHE-EQUATORIALE AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE,
POUVANT MEME TEMPORAIREMENT DE VENIR PREDOMINANTE, VA DONNER
TEMPORAIREMENT DES FLUX DIRECTEURS CONTRADICTOIRES. L'INCERTITUDE SUR
LA TRAJECTOIRE AUGMENTE SENSIBLEMENT A PARTIR DE CE MOMENT LA. UNE
FORTE DISPERSION RESTE PRESENTE DANS LES PREVISIONS ENSEMBLISTES,
D'OU UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE ET LA DISTANCE DE
PASSAGE A PROXIMITE DES TERRES HABITEES DES MASCAREIGNES.


LE MAINTIEN D'UNE CONTRAINTE DE NORD-EST DEVRAIT PLUS OU MOINS
CONTENIR L'INTENSITE POUR CE WEEK-END. MAIS AVEC UNE CIRCULATION
RESTANT DE PETITE TAILLE, DES FLUCTUATIONS RAPIDES D'INTENSITE,
DIFFICILEMENT PREVISIBLES, RESTENT TOUT A FAIT POSSIBLES. A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE ET SURTOUT LUNDI, LA CONSTITUTION D'UNE CIRCULATION
DEPRESSIONNAIRE PLUS LARGE ET UNE EVOLUTION DU SYSTEME A PROXIMITE DE
LA DORSALE D'ALTITUDE POURRAIENT PERMETTRE UNE INTENSIFICATION, GRACE
A UNE MEILLEURE CONVERGENCE DE SURFACE, UNE BONNE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE ET UN FORT POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE. TOUTEFOIS, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT ALORS ETRE PLUS OU MOINS INFLUENCE PAR LA BORDURE SUD D'UNE
ZONE A CISAILLEMENT MODERE, APPORTANT UNE INCERTITUDE SUR LE
POTENTIEL D'INTENSIFICATION. UNE INTENSIFICATION EN FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE PUIS CYCLONE TROPICAL SEMBLE ENVISAGEABLE AU MOMENT OU LE
SYSTEME CIRCULERA A PROXIMITE DES TERRES HABITEES.

IMPACTS POSSIBLES SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :
BATSIRAI RESTERA A L'ECART DES TERRES HABITEES JUSQU'A DIMANCHE
INCLUS. LUNDI, IL POURRAIT CIRCULER A PROXIMITE DU NORD DE RODRIGUES
A UNE DISTANCE ENCORE INCERTAINE. L'ILE MAURICE POURRAIT ETRE ENSUITE
CONCERNEE A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LA AUSSI AVEC UNE FORTE INCERTITUDE
SUR LA TRAJECTOIRE MAIS AUSSI SUR L'INTENSITE QU'AURA LE SYSTEME A CE
MOMENT ET SUR LA CHRONOLOGIE DE LA DEGRADATION. AVEC DES PROBABILITES
DE TEMPS TRES PERTURBE ET DE MER DANGEREUSE QUI AUGMENTENT EN DEBUT
OU MILIEU DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LES HABITANTS DES MASCAREIGNES
(RODRIGUES, MAURICE ET LA REUNION) SONT INVITES A SUIVRE DE PRES
L'EVOLUTION DES PREVISIONS ET A SE PREPARER A UNE EVENTUELLE MENACE
D'UN SYSTEME TROPICAL MATURE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 281829
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/2/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/28 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5 S / 72.9 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/29 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2022/01/29 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 65

36H: 2022/01/30 06 UTC: 18.5 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2022/01/30 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2022/01/31 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 195 SW: 240 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2022/01/31 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 315 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/01 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 350 SW: 350 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

120H: 2022/02/02 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 295 SW: 305 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE BATSIRAI CLOUD PATTERN HAS SLIGHTLY
IMPROVED WITH A LOW LEVEL CENTER AGAIN UNDER THE CONVECTION AT THE
EDGE OF THE CDO. NEVERTHELESS, A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS
STILL PRESENT AS SHOWN BY THE ARC OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ON THE LAST
SATELLITE IMAGES.
THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE THUS ESTIMATED AT 35 KT IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.

BATSIRAI SHOULD CURVE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL SATURDAY
WHILE SLOWING DOWN, ATTRACTED BY A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. FROM SUNDAY, STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR SHOULD SHIFT THE TRACK WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD THEN WESTWARD
WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE EAST OF THE MASCARENE
ARCHIPELAGO, POSSIBLY TRACKING A LITTLE NORTH OF RODRIGUES ON MONDAY.
MOREOVER, THE BUILD-UP OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH-EAST
OF THE SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, WHICH CAN EVEN
TEMPORARILY COME TO DOMINATE, WILL TEMPORARILY GIVE COMPETING
STEERING FLOWS. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM THIS MOMENT ON. A STRONG DISPERSION IS STILL PRESENT IN ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS, HENCE A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND DISTANCE OF
PASSAGE NEAR THE INHABITED LANDS OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS.

A REMNANT NORTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT AND NEARBY DRY AIR COULD SOMEWHAT
CONTAIN INTENSITY FOR THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WITH BATSIRAI'S TIGHT
CIRCULATION, RAPID INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE VERY LIKELY AND WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. FROM SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY, A
LARGER CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AND A TRACK GETTING CLOSER TO THE UPPER
RIDGE COULD ALLOW FURTHER INTENSIFICATION THANKS TO A BETTER SURFACE
CONVERGENCE, GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A STRONG OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BE MORE OR LESS INFLUENCED BY THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF A MODERATE SHEAR ZONE, BRINGING UNCERTAINTY ON ITS
POTENTIAL. INTENSIFICATION INTO A STRONG