Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KARIM-22
in Cocos (Keeling) Islands

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 110900 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (KARIM) WARNING NR 009A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (KARIM) WARNING NR 009A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 19.1S 95.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 95.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 18.4S 96.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.8S 97.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.0S 98.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 95.5E.
11MAY22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (KARIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1083
NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM OVER
THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS IT MOVED INTO AN
STRONG 30+ KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE OUTER REGION OF THE JET STREAM TO THE
SOUTH. TC 25S IS QUICKLY CONVERTING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER (24-25C) WATERS, WHICH HAS
KILLED ALL OF THE CONVECTION THAT WAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
LLC. THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF TC 25S HAS DETACHED COMPLETELY
FROM THE LLC AS NOTICED ON THE MSI LOOP, ALONG WITH COLD-AIR
STRATOCUMULUS LINES WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. PGTW LATEST FIX FOR
THIS SYSTEM WAS AT A T1.0/25KTS, WHILE ADT INDICATES T2.7/41KTS.
THE LLC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THEN TURN NORTH,
AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY OVER THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN BEFORE REACHING
THE COCOS ISLANDS BY TAU 36. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FORSIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600ZIS 18 FEET.//
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: SYSTEM BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 101800
WARNING ATCG MIL 25S SIO 220510192039
2022051018 25S KARIM 008 01 150 10 SATL 060
T000 187S 0932E 050 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 250 SE QD 170 SW QD 200 NW QD
T012 198S 0949E 045 R034 080 NE QD 250 SE QD 200 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 192S 0965E 035 R034 010 NE QD 270 SE QD 190 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 178S 0978E 030
T048 159S 0981E 025
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (KARIM) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (KARIM) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 18.7S 93.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 93.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.8S 94.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 19.2S 96.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.8S 97.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.9S 98.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 93.6E.
10MAY22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (KARIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1193
NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z.
//
2522050506 52S 873E 20
2522050512 51S 875E 20
2522050518 53S 877E 20
2522050600 56S 877E 20
2522050606 60S 880E 25
2522050612 63S 883E 25
2522050618 67S 887E 30
2522050700 72S 892E 30
2522050706 78S 896E 35
2522050712 85S 900E 40
2522050718 93S 901E 45
2522050800 98S 902E 50
2522050800 98S 902E 50
2522050806 103S 903E 55
2522050806 103S 903E 55
2522050812 106S 904E 60
2522050812 106S 904E 60
2522050818 110S 906E 60
2522050818 110S 906E 60
2522050900 116S 907E 60
2522050900 116S 907E 60
2522050906 123S 908E 60
2522050906 123S 908E 60
2522050912 132S 909E 60
2522050912 132S 909E 60
2522050918 139S 911E 60
2522050918 139S 911E 60
2522051000 154S 916E 60
2522051000 154S 916E 60
2522051006 162S 919E 60
2522051006 162S 919E 60
2522051012 178S 927E 55
2522051012 178S 927E 55
2522051018 187S 932E 50
2522051018 187S 932E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 101600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (KARIM) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (KARIM) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 18.7S 93.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 93.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.8S 94.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 19.2S 96.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.8S 97.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.9S 98.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 93.6E.
10MAY22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (KARIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1193
NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 101900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (KARIM) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (KARIM) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 18.7S 93.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 93.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.8S 94.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 19.2S 96.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.8S 97.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.9S 98.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 93.6E.
10MAY22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (KARIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1193
NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z AND 112100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 071256
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/13/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (KARIM)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 07/05/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.4 S / 90.1 E
(HUIT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 08/05/2022 00 UTC: 9.6 S / 90.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 435 SO: 295 NO: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SO: 150 NO: 185

24H: 08/05/2022 12 UTC: 10.7 S / 91.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SO: 285 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SO: 150 NO: 175
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SO: 95 NO: 35

36H: 09/05/2022 00 UTC: 11.9 S / 91.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 335 SO: 270 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: 95 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SO: 65 NO: 35

48H: 09/05/2022 12 UTC: 13.3 S / 91.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 360 SO: 155 NO: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SO: 75 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SO: 55 NO: 35

60H: 10/05/2022 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 92.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SO: 230 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SO: 0 NO: 100

72H: 10/05/2022 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 92.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SO: 270 NO: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 95 SO: 0 NO: 110

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/05/2022 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 96.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SO: 185 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 95

120H: 12/05/2022 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 94.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SO: 95 NO: 0

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE LA
TEMPETE TROPICALE KARIM A CONTINUE A S'ORGANISER. LE CENTRE, DANS UN
PREMIER TEMPS EXPOSE EST PASSE SOUS LA CONVECTION PRINCIPALE AVEC LA
BAISSE DU CISAILLEMENT D'ALTITUDE. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES SSMIS DE
0959Z CONFIRME CETTE AMELIROATION. PAR AILLEURS L'ANALYSE DVORAK EST
ESTIMEE A 3.0. LES VENTS MAXIMUM SONT DONC ELEVES A 40KT.

KARIM EST ACTUELLEMENT A LA LIMITE DE LA ZONE DE RESPONSABILITE DU
CMRS DE LA REUNION MAIS IL DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE
SUD-EST CES PROCHAINS JOURS. ELLE EST PILOTEE PAR L'IMPULSION DE LA
DYNAMIQUE DU COUP DE VENT D'OUEST EQUATORIAL ET EN BORDURE D'UNE
DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME, PUIS AUSSI ATTIREE PAR UN TALWEG DE
MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE APPROCHANT PAR LE SUD-OUEST A PARTIR DE LUNDI. A
PARTIR DE MARDI, IL EXISTE ENCORE UNE DISPERSION DANS LES
TRAJECTOIRES PREVUES PAR LES MODELES, DEPENDANT DE L'INTENSITE DU
SYSTEME A CE MOMENT ET DE FLUX DIRECTEURS POTENTIELLEMENT
CONTRADICTOIRES : LE SYSTEME POUVANT ETRE SOIT ENTRAINE VERS LE
SUD-EST PAR LE TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPO (CAS OU LE SYSTEME SERAIT DE
BONNE INTENSITE) OU BIEN ETRE REPRIS VERS LE NORD-OUEST SUR LA FACE
NORD DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX DE BASSE TROPOSPHERE (CAS
D'UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME). LA TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST REVUE
LEGEREMENT PLUS A L'EST QUE LA PRECEDENTE EN S'APPUYANT DAVANTAGE SUR
LE MODELE IFS QUI APPREHENDE MIEUX LA POSITION A L'ANALYSE.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE DE CONDITIONS
RELATIVEMENT FAVORABLES A SON DEVELOPPEMENT A COURT TERME. AVEC SON
DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST, LA CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE NORD-EST
DEVRAIT CONTINUER A S'ATTENUER DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. AVEC UNE
TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE (CANAL D'EVACUATION COTE SUD), UN
ENVIRONNEMENT SUFFISAMMENT HUMIDE ET UNE BONNE CONVERGENCE DE
SURFACE, IL DEVRAIT CONTINUER A S'INTENSIFIER DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES ET POSSIBLEMENT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
ENTRE DIMANCHE ET LUNDI. A PARTIR DE MARDI, LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT
DE NORD-OUEST ET UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC DANS LES COUCHES MOYENNES,
EN LIEN AVEC L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME,
DEVRAIENT L'AFFAIBLIR.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.

CE BULLETIN EST LE DERNIER BULLETIN EMIS PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION
CONCERNANT CE SYSTEME. IL SERA DORENAVANT SUIVI PAR LE CMRS DE PERTH
EN AUSTRALIE.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 071256
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/13/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KARIM)

2.A POSITION 2022/05/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.4 S / 90.1 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/05/08 00 UTC: 9.6 S / 90.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 435 SW: 295 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 185

24H: 2022/05/08 12 UTC: 10.7 S / 91.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 380 SW: 285 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 35

36H: 2022/05/09 00 UTC: 11.9 S / 91.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 335 SW: 270 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 35

48H: 2022/05/09 12 UTC: 13.3 S / 91.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 360 SW: 155 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 75 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 35

60H: 2022/05/10 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 92.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 100

72H: 2022/05/10 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 92.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 110

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/05/11 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 96.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95

120H: 2022/05/12 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 94.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF TROPICAL STORM KARIM
HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE. THE CENTER, IN A FIRST TIME EXPOSED, WENT
UNDER THE MAIN CONVECTION WITH THE DECREASE OF THE SHEAR. THE SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM 0959Z CONFIRM THIS AMELIORATION. MOREOVER THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS IS ESTIMATED AT 3.0. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE THEREFORE
HIGH AT 40KT.

KARIM IS CURRENTLY AT THE LIMIT OF THE RESPONSIBILITY ZONE OF THE
CMRS OF THE REUNION BUT SHOULD FOLLOW A SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, BOTH UNDER THE DYNAMICS OF THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLY
WIND BURST AND ON THE EDGE OF A RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM, THEN ALSO ATTRACTED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM MONDAY. FROM TUESDAY, THERE IS SOME
DISPERSION AMONG AVAILABLE MODEL OUTPUT, THE FUTURE TRACK DEPENDING
ON HOW INTENSE THE SYSTEM WILL BE AT THIS TIME AND BECAUSE OF
POTENTIALLY CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS : THE SYSTEM COULD BE EITHER
DRIVEN SOUTH-EASTWARDS BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (IF THE SYSTEM
KEEPS GOOD INTENSITY) OR MOVE BACK NORTHWESTWARDS THEN WESTWARDS ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL LOW-TROPOSPHERE HIGH (IF THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS). THE CMRS TRACK IS REVISED SLIGHTLY EASTERN THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE, RELYING MORE ON THE IFS MODEL WHICH BETTER LOCATED THE
POSITION AT ANALYSIS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ENTER THE AUSTRALIAN ZONE OF
RESPONSIBILITY, EAST OF 90AO, DURING NEXT NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT WITH A TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM A RELATIVELY
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT. WITH ITS
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD EASE A BIT THIS
SATURDAY. WITH VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE (SOUTHWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL), A SUFFICIENTLY HUMID ENVIRONMENT AND GOOD SURFACE
CONVERGENCE, KARIM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND POSSIBLY REACH THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BETWEEN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FROM TUESDAY, INCREASING NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION, RELATED TO THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, SHOULD WEAKEN IT.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.

THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE CMRS OF THE REUNION
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL NOW BE FOLLOWED BY THE CMRS IN PERTH,
AUSTRALIA.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 071218
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/05/2022
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 07/05/2022 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KARIM) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.4 S / 90.1 E
(EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 170 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
50 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/05/08 AT 00 UTC:
9.6 S / 90.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 NM SE: 235 NM SW: 160 NM NW: 135 NM
34 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 100 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 100 NM

24H, VALID 2022/05/08 AT 12 UTC:
10.7 S / 91.0 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 125 NM SE: 205 NM SW: 155 NM NW: 140 NM
34 KT NE: 90 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 95 NM
48 KT NE: 35 NM SE: 35 NM SW: 50 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM THAT
WILL MONITORED BY RSMC OF PERTH.=

>

Original Message :

WTXS51 PGTW 070900
WARNING ATCG MIL 25S SIO 220507081708
2022050706 25S KARIM 001 01 145 07 SATL 045
T000 077S 0895E 035 R034 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 089S 0900E 040 R034 065 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 099S 0904E 045 R034 095 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 109S 0908E 055 R050 020 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 095 NW QD
T048 122S 0912E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 160 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 149S 0925E 055 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 140 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 172S 0937E 040 R034 070 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 164S 0940E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (KARIM) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (KARIM) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 7.7S 89.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.7S 89.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 8.9S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 9.9S 90.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 10.9S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.2S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.9S 92.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.2S 93.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.4S 94.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 8.0S 89.6E.
07MAY22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (KARIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
510 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z.//
2522050412 61S 912E 15
2522050418 60S 896E 15
2522050500 55S 881E 20
2522050506 52S 873E 20
2522050512 51S 875E 20
2522050518 53S 877E 20
2522050600 56S 877E 20
2522050606 60S 880E 25
2522050612 63S 883E 25
2522050618 67S 887E 30
2522050700 71S 891E 30
2522050706 77S 895E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTXS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (KARIM) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061351ZMAY2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (KARIM) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 7.7S 89.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.7S 89.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 8.9S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 9.9S 90.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 10.9S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.2S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.9S 92.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 17.2S 93.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.4S 94.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 8.0S 89.6E.
07MAY22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (KARIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
510 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 061400).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 FMEE 070741
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/13/20212022
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 13 (KARIM)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 07/05/2022 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 7.9 S / 89.3 E
(SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 5 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 110 SO: 0 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 95

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS (EXTENSIONS DES VENTS FORTS EN KM):
12H: 07/05/2022 18 UTC: 8.7 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 405 SO: 270 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SO: 120 NO: 165

24H: 08/05/2022 06 UTC: 9.9 S / 90.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 405 SO: 305 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SO: 155 NO: 185

36H: 08/05/2022 18 UTC: 11.1 S / 90.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SO: 345 NO: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SO: 75 NO: 35

48H: 09/05/2022 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 91.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SO: 260 NO: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SO: 65 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SO: 45 NO: 35

60H: 09/05/2022 18 UTC: 14.1 S / 91.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 350 SO: 220 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SO: 85 NO: 100

72H: 10/05/2022 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 92.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SO: 270 NO: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 85 NO: 100

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 11/05/2022 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 94.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SO: 280 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 250 SO: 155 NO: 185

120H: 12/05/2022 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 94.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DEPRESSION RESIDUELLE
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SO: 240 NO: 185

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST
AMELIOREE AVEC NOTAMMENT LA FORMATION D UN BURST DE CONVECTION PLUS
COMPACT A L'OUEST DU CENTRE ET UNE STRUCTURE PLUS SYMETRIQUE. LES
PASSES ASCAT DE 0230Z ET DE 0330 MONTRENT DES VENTS DE 35KT SUR LA
MOITIE NORD DU SYSTEME AVEC UNE CIRCULATION QUI TEND A S'AMELIORER
(MEME SI ENCORE LEGEREMENT ALLONGEE). L'ANALYSE DVORAK EN
DONFIGURATION CISAILLEE EST ESTIMEE A 2.5+. AVEC LA CONFIRMATION DES
ASCAT LE SYSTEME A DONC ETE BAPTISE A 0700Z AU STADE DE TEMPA TE
TROPICALE MODEREE KARIM.

KARIM DEVRAIT SUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST CES
PROCHAINS JOURS, SOUS L'IMPULSION DE LA DYNAMIQUE DU COUP DE VENT
D'OUEST EQUATORIAL ET EN BORDURE D'UNE DORSALE A L'EST DU SYSTEME,
PUIS AUSSI ATTIREE PAR UN TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE APPROCHANT
PAR LE SUD-OUEST A PARTIR DE LUNDI. A PARTIR DE MARDI, IL EXISTE UNE
FORTE DISPERSION DANS LES TRAJECTOIRES PREVUES PAR LES MODELES,
DEPENDANT DE L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME A CE MOMENT ET DE FLUX DIRECTEURS
POTENTIELLEMENT CONTRADICTOIRES : LE SYSTEME POUVANT ETRE SOIT
ENTRAINE VERS LE SUD-EST PAR LE TALWEG DE MOYENNE TROPO (CAS OU LE
SYSTEME SERAIT DE BONNE INTENSITE) OU BIEN ETRE REPRIS VERS LE
NORD-OUEST SUR LA FACE NORD DES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SUBTROPICAUX DE
BASSE TROPOSPHERE (CAS D'UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME). LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS EST REVUE LEGEREMENT PLUS A L'EST QUE LA
PRECEDENTE EN S'APPUYANT DAVANTAGE SUR LE MODELE IFS QUI APPREHENDE
MIEUX LA POSITION A L'ANALYSE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ENTRER DANS LA ZONE
DE RESPONSABILITE AUSTRALIENNE, A L'EST DE 90E, EN COURS DE NUIT
PROCHAINE OU DEBUT DE MATINEE DE DIMANCHE, MAIS AVEC UN TIMING ENCORE
INCERTAIN.

EN TERMES D'INTENSITE, LE SYSTEME BENEFICIE DE CONDITIONS
RELATIVEMENT FAVORABLES A SON DEVELOPPEMENT A COURT TERME. AVEC SON
DEPLACEMENT VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST, LA CONTRAINTE CISAILLEE DE NORD-EST
DEVRAIT CONTINUER A S'ATTENUER DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES. AVEC UNE
TRES BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE (CANAL D'EVACUATION COTE SUD), UN
ENVIRONNEMENT SUFFISAMMENT HUMIDE ET UNE BONNE CONVERGENCE DE
SURFACE, IL DEVRAIT CONTINUER A S'INTENSIFIER DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES ET POSSIBLEMENT ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
ENTRE DIMANCHE ET LUNDI. A PARTIR DE MARDI, LA HAUSSE DU CISAILLEMENT
DE NORD-OUEST ET UNE INTRUSION D'AIR SEC DANS LES COUCHES MOYENNES,
EN LIEN AVEC L'APPROCHE D'UN TALWEG AU SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME,
DEVRAIENT L'AFFAIBLIR.

CE SYSTEME NE PRESENTE AUCUNE MENACE POUR LES TERRES HABITEES.=

>

Original Message :

WTIO30 FMEE 070741
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/13/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KARIM)

2.A POSITION 2022/05/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.9 S / 89.3 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/05/07 18 UTC: 8.7 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 405 SW: 270 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 165

24H: 2022/05/08 06 UTC: 9.9 S / 90.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 405 SW: 305 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 185

36H: 2022/05/08 18 UTC: 11.1 S / 90.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SW: 345 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 35

48H: 2022/05/09 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 91.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 0 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2022/05/09 18 UTC: 14.1 S / 91.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 350 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 100

72H: 2022/05/10 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 92.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 100

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/05/11 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 94.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 185

120H: 2022/05/12 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 94.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 240 NW: 185

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED WITH THE
FORMATION OF A MORE COMPACT CONVECTION BURST WEST OF THE CENTER AND A
MORE SYMMETRIC STRUCTURE. THE ASCAT PASSES OF 0230Z AND 0330 SHOW
WINDS OF 35KT ON THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM WITH A CIRCULATION
WHICH TENDS TO IMPROVE (EVEN IF STILL SLIGHTLY ELONGATED). THE DVORAK
ANALYSIS IN SHEARED CONFIGURATION IS ESTIMATED AT 2.5+. WITH THE
CONFIRMATION OF THE ASCAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED AT 0700Z AS A
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM KARIM.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FOLLOW A SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, BOTH UNDER THE DYNAMICS OF THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLY WIND
BURST AND ON THE EDGE OF A RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM,
THEN ALSO ATTRACTED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FROM MONDAY. FROM TUESDAY, THERE IS STRONG DISPERSION AMONG
AVAILABLE MODEL OUTPUT, THE FUTURE TRACK DEPENDING ON HOW INTENSE THE
SYSTEM WILL BE AT THIS TIME AND BECAUSE OF POTENTIALLY CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOWS : THE SYSTEM COULD BE EITHER DRIVEN SOUTH-EASTWARDS BY
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (IF THE SYSTEM KEEPS GOOD INTENSITY) OR
MOVE BACK NORTHWESTWARDS THEN WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A
SUBTROPICAL LOW-TROPOSPHERE HIGH (IF THE SYSTEM WEAKENS). THE CMRS
TRACK IS REVISED SLIGHTLY EASTERN THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, RELYING MORE
ON THE IFS MODEL WHICH BETTER LOCATED THE POSITION AT ANALYSIS. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD ENTER THE AUSTRALIAN ZONE OF RESPONSIBILITY, EAST OF
90AO, DURING NEXT NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT WITH A TIMING
STILL UNCERTAIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM BENEFITS FROM A RELATIVELY
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT. WITH ITS
SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD EASE A BIT
THIS SATURDAY. WITH VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE (SOUTHWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL), A SUFFICIENTLY HUMID ENVIRONMENT AND GOOD SURFACE
CONVERGENCE, KARIM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND POSSIBLY REACH THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BETWEEN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FROM TUESDAY, INCREASING NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION, RELATED TO THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, SHOULD WEAKEN IT.

THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED LANDS.=

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Original Message :

WTIO20 FMEE 070641
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/05/2022
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/13 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 07/05/2022 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KARIM) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.9 S / 89.3 E
(SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 300 NM IN THE SEMI-CIRCLE WEST.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 50
NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 80 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2022/05/07 AT 18 UTC:
8.7 S / 89.8 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 NM SE: 220 NM SW: 145 NM NW: 115 NM
34 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 65 NM NW: 90 NM

24H, VALID 2022/05/08 AT 06 UTC:
9.9 S / 90.1 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 NM SE: 220 NM SW: 165 NM NW: 145 NM
34 KT NE: 80 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 85 NM NW: 100 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

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