Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for NALGAE-22 in China, Philippines from 27 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC to 03 Nov 2022 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NALGAE-22

in China, Philippines

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NALGAE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Japan, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Philippines, Malaysia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	119 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.3 m (01 Nov 07:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	119 km/h	1.3 m	220 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	126 km/h	1.3 m	716 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Japan, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Philippines, Malaysia	4,697,038	+
	Japan	107,107
	Taiwan	4,246,646
	China	306,362
	Hong Kong	18,920
	Philippines	2,841
	Malaysia	15,159

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	27 Oct 2022 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Oct 2022 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	27 Oct 2022 12:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	27 Oct 2022 18:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	28 Oct 2022 00:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	28 Oct 2022 06:00	90	-		-	-	-	-	-	China, Taiwan
7	28 Oct 2022 12:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	China, Taiwan, Philippines
8	28 Oct 2022 18:00	97	-		-	-	-	-	-	China, Taiwan, Philippines
9	29 Oct 2022 00:00	90	-		-	-	-	-	-	Taiwan, Philippines
10	29 Oct 2022 06:00	83	-		-	-	-	-	-	China, Taiwan, Philippines
11	29 Oct 2022 12:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	China, Taiwan, Philippines
12	29 Oct 2022 18:00	90	-		-	-	-	-	-	China, Taiwan, Philippines
13	30 Oct 2022 00:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	China, Taiwan, Philippines
14	30 Oct 2022 06:00	94	-		-	-	-	-	-	China, Taiwan, Philippines
15	30 Oct 2022 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	China, Taiwan, Philippines
16	30 Oct 2022 18:00	104	-		-	-	-	-	-	China, Taiwan, Philippines
17	31 Oct 2022 00:00	115	-		-	-	-	-	-	Taiwan, China, Philippines
18	31 Oct 2022 06:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Taiwan, China, Philippines, Paracel Islands
19	31 Oct 2022 12:00	122	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Philippines, Malaysia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

716 mm

Up to 5.4 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Japan	51,851
100-250 mm	Japan, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Macao, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Brunei, Indonesia	5,384,517	+
	Japan	104,192
	China	1,405,606
	Taiwan	200,530
	Hong Kong	2,368,871
	Macao	579,652
	Philippines	51,361
	Malaysia	487,863
	Thailand	6,302
	Brunei	77,674
	Indonesia	102,462
50-100 mm	Japan, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Brunei, Indonesia	17,829,633	+
	Japan	2,249,891
	China	2,924,078
	Taiwan	2,533,297
	Hong Kong	4,681,389
	Philippines	1,133,325
	Malaysia	3,660,105
	Thailand	159,236
	Brunei	301,282
	Indonesia	187,028

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	27 Oct 2022 00:00	174	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	27 Oct 2022 06:00	390	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	27 Oct 2022 12:00	345	-		-	-	-	-	-	Philippines
4	27 Oct 2022 18:00	216	530 thousand			-	-	-	-	Philippines
5	28 Oct 2022 00:00	231	2 million			-	-	-	-	Philippines
6	28 Oct 2022 06:00	359	270 thousand				-	-	-	Philippines
7	28 Oct 2022 12:00	153	470 thousand			-	-	-	-	Philippines
8	28 Oct 2022 18:00	133	990 thousand			-	-	-	-	Philippines
9	29 Oct 2022 00:00	207	12.5 million			-	-	-	-	Philippines
10	29 Oct 2022 06:00	125	1.4 million			-	-	-	-	Philippines
11	29 Oct 2022 12:00	211	2.5 million			-	-	-	-	Philippines
12	29 Oct 2022 18:00	151	-		-	-	-	-	-	Philippines
13	30 Oct 2022 00:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	30 Oct 2022 06:00	146	-		-	-	-	-	-	Philippines
15	30 Oct 2022 12:00	166	-		-	-	-	-	-	Malaysia
16	30 Oct 2022 18:00	183	70 thousand			-	-	-	-	Taiwan, Palau, Malaysia
17	31 Oct 2022 00:00	177	210 thousand			-	-	-	-	Taiwan, Palau, Malaysia, Indonesia
18	31 Oct 2022 06:00	152	-		-	-	-	-	-	Taiwan, Japan, Indonesia
19	31 Oct 2022 12:00	373	5.4 million				-	-	-	Japan, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Brunei, Indonesia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1.3 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.