Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BATSIRAI-22
in Madagascar
06 Feb 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Mauritius, Madagascar, Reunion
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 90 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (05 Feb 16:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 90 km/h 0.6 m 1095 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 90 km/h 0.6 m 1095 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

90 km/h

Up to 1.7 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMauritius, Madagascar, Reunion1,723,955
+
Mauritius848,396 
Madagascar684,805 
Reunion190,752 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 26 Jan 2022 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 27 Jan 2022 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 27 Jan 2022 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 28 Jan 2022 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 28 Jan 2022 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 29 Jan 2022 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 29 Jan 2022 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 30 Jan 2022 00:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 30 Jan 2022 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 31 Jan 2022 00:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 31 Jan 2022 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 01 Feb 2022 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 01 Feb 2022 12:00 155 -
- - - - - Mauritius
GREEN 14 02 Feb 2022 00:00 144 -
- - - - - Mauritius
GREEN 15 02 Feb 2022 12:00 162 -
- - - - - Mauritius, Reunion
GREEN 16 03 Feb 2022 00:00 158 -
- - - - - Mauritius, Reunion
GREEN 17 03 Feb 2022 12:00 173 -
- - - - - Mauritius, Reunion
GREEN 18 04 Feb 2022 00:00 162 -
- - - - - Reunion
GREEN 19 04 Feb 2022 12:00 176 -
- - - - - Reunion
GREEN 20 05 Feb 2022 00:00 122 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 21 05 Feb 2022 12:00 151 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 22 06 Feb 2022 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 23 06 Feb 2022 12:00 86 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
more than 1000 mmReunion196 
750-1000 mmReunion26,844 
500-750 mmReunion, Madagascar623,019
+
Madagascar437,034 
Reunion185,985 
250-500 mmTanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Reunion3,540,292
+
Tanzania15,987 
Malawi6,872 
Mozambique2,442 
Madagascar3,086,987 
Reunion428,003 
100-250 mmTanzania, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Reunion22,401,590
+
Tanzania8,905,041 
Malawi3,502,269 
Mauritius1,226,354 
Mozambique2,445,928 
Comoros167,637 
Madagascar5,934,233 
Reunion220,124 
50-100 mmTanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar, Mayotte, Mauritius27,983,626
+
Tanzania6,907,347 
Malawi5,943,168 
Mauritius13,436 
Mozambique6,997,727 
Comoros588,269 
Madagascar7,293,662 
Mayotte240,014 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 26 Jan 2022 12:00 190 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 27 Jan 2022 00:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 27 Jan 2022 12:00 82 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 28 Jan 2022 00:00 252 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 5 28 Jan 2022 12:00 165 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 29 Jan 2022 00:00 192 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 29 Jan 2022 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 30 Jan 2022 00:00 181 -
- - - - - Tanzania
Blue 9 30 Jan 2022 12:00 220 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 31 Jan 2022 00:00 239 -
- - - - - Tanzania
Blue 11 31 Jan 2022 12:00 230 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 01 Feb 2022 00:00 204 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 01 Feb 2022 12:00 274 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 14 02 Feb 2022 00:00 310 1 thousand
- - - - Reunion
Blue 15 02 Feb 2022 12:00 227 30 thousand
- - - - Mauritius, Reunion
Blue 16 03 Feb 2022 00:00 290 190 thousand
- - - Reunion
Blue 17 03 Feb 2022 12:00 234 190 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 18 04 Feb 2022 00:00 272 130 thousand
- - - - Reunion
Blue 19 04 Feb 2022 12:00 289 160 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 20 05 Feb 2022 00:00 170 440 thousand
- - - - Madagascar, Reunion
Blue 21 05 Feb 2022 12:00 351 3.2 million
- - - Madagascar
Blue 22 06 Feb 2022 00:00 227 230 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 23 06 Feb 2022 12:00 743 210 thousand
- - - - Tanzania, Mauritius, Malawi, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.5 - 1.0 mMadagascar, Mozambique155,922
+
Madagascar92,997 
Mozambique62,924 
0.25 - 0.5 mTanzania, Madagascar, Mozambique, Reunion579,199
+
Tanzania42,134 
Madagascar336,170 
Mozambique192,349 
Reunion8,545 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2022 12:00 UTC