Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BATSIRAI-22
in Madagascar
31 Jan 2022 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Mauritius, Reunion
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 115 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (31 Jan 17:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 115 km/h 0.4 m 230 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 90 km/h 0.6 m 1095 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

90 km/h

Up to 650 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Jan 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMauritius, Reunion648,508
+
Mauritius498,282 
Reunion150,225 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 26 Jan 2022 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 27 Jan 2022 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 27 Jan 2022 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 28 Jan 2022 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 28 Jan 2022 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 29 Jan 2022 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 29 Jan 2022 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 30 Jan 2022 00:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 30 Jan 2022 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 31 Jan 2022 00:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 31 Jan 2022 12:00 155 -
- - - - - Mauritius, Reunion
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Jan 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmReunion682 
250-500 mmReunion99,332 
100-250 mmMauritius, Reunion657,222
+
Mauritius112,795 
Reunion544,426 
50-100 mmTanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion1,557,526
+
Tanzania448,783 
Malawi231 
Mozambique47 
Madagascar136,273 
Mauritius755,478 
Reunion216,712 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 26 Jan 2022 12:00 190 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 27 Jan 2022 00:00 134 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 27 Jan 2022 12:00 82 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 28 Jan 2022 00:00 252 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 5 28 Jan 2022 12:00 165 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 29 Jan 2022 00:00 192 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 29 Jan 2022 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 30 Jan 2022 00:00 181 -
- - - - - Tanzania
Blue 9 30 Jan 2022 12:00 220 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 31 Jan 2022 00:00 239 -
- - - - - Tanzania
Blue 11 31 Jan 2022 12:00 643 760 thousand
- - Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 Jan 2022 12:00 UTC