Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for AGATHA-22
in Mexico
30 May 2022 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone AGATHA-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 148 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (01 Jun 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 148 km/h 0.6 m 211 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 184 km/h 0.9 m 700 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 May 2022 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico724,930
+
United States3,481 
Mexico721,449 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 28 May 2022 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 2 28 May 2022 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 28 May 2022 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 28 May 2022 18:00 115 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 5 29 May 2022 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 6 29 May 2022 06:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 29 May 2022 12:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 29 May 2022 18:00 133 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 9 30 May 2022 00:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 30 May 2022 06:00 148 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

700 mm

Up to 1.8 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 May 2022 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico44,110 
100-250 mmMexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama1,764,126
+
Mexico994,687 
Belize90,495 
Guatemala288,823 
Honduras55,740 
Nicaragua108,276 
Costa Rica163,491 
Panama62,611 
50-100 mmMexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama11,878,834
+
Mexico2,077,979 
Belize232,359 
Guatemala2,473,724 
Honduras2,246,824 
Nicaragua1,021,136 
Costa Rica3,391,461 
Panama435,347 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 28 May 2022 00:00 168 -
- - - - - Guatemala
Blue 2 28 May 2022 06:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 28 May 2022 12:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 28 May 2022 18:00 129 -
- - - - - Costa Rica
Blue 5 29 May 2022 00:00 153 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 29 May 2022 06:00 223 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 29 May 2022 12:00 155 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 29 May 2022 18:00 192 -
- - - - - United States, Cuba
Blue 9 30 May 2022 00:00 218 -
- - - - - Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica
Blue 10 30 May 2022 06:00 468 1.8 million
- - - Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 30 May 2022 06:00 UTC