Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for AGATHA-22
in Mexico
31 May 2022 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone AGATHA-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico, United States
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 50 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (02 Jun 20:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 50 km/h 0.8 m 122 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 184 km/h 0.9 m 700 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

184 km/h

Up to 20 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 May 2022 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico, United States18,269
+
Mexico18,243 
United States25 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 28 May 2022 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 2 28 May 2022 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 28 May 2022 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 28 May 2022 18:00 115 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 5 29 May 2022 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 6 29 May 2022 06:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 29 May 2022 12:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 29 May 2022 18:00 133 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 9 30 May 2022 00:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 30 May 2022 06:00 148 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 11 30 May 2022 12:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 30 May 2022 18:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 31 May 2022 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 31 May 2022 06:00 76 -
- - - - - Mexico, United States
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 May 2022 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmPanama10 
100-250 mmCuba, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Panama542,795
+
Cuba216 
Mexico376,326 
Belize49,365 
Guatemala107,480 
Panama9,405 
50-100 mmCuba, Mexico, Cayman Islands, Belize, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama7,885,516
+
Cuba16,497 
Mexico3,067,173 
Cayman Islands38,078 
Belize163,991 
Guatemala791,733 
Nicaragua160,766 
Costa Rica3,455,764 
Panama191,512 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 28 May 2022 00:00 168 -
- - - - - Guatemala
Blue 2 28 May 2022 06:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 28 May 2022 12:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 28 May 2022 18:00 129 -
- - - - - Costa Rica
Blue 5 29 May 2022 00:00 153 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 29 May 2022 06:00 223 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 29 May 2022 12:00 155 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 29 May 2022 18:00 192 -
- - - - - United States, Cuba
Blue 9 30 May 2022 00:00 218 -
- - - - - Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica
Blue 10 30 May 2022 06:00 211 -
- - - - - Honduras, Nicaragua
Blue 11 30 May 2022 12:00 273 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 30 May 2022 18:00 147 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 13 31 May 2022 00:00 114 6 thousand
- - - - Mexico, Guatemala
Blue 14 31 May 2022 06:00 346 540 thousand
- - - Cuba, Mexico, Cayman Islands, Belize, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.8 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 May 2022 06:00 UTC