Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for AGATHA-22 in Mexico from 28 May 2022 03:00 UTC to 31 May 2022 15:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for AGATHA-22

in Mexico

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone AGATHA-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	United States, Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	47 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.7 m (02 Jun 20:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	47 km/h	0.7 m	177 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	184 km/h	0.9 m	700 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

184 km/h

Up to 110 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 May 2022 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	United States, Mexico	106,239	+
	United States	08
	Mexico	106,231

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	28 May 2022 00:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
2	28 May 2022 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	28 May 2022 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 May 2022 18:00	115	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
5	29 May 2022 00:00	112	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
6	29 May 2022 06:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	29 May 2022 12:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	29 May 2022 18:00	133	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
9	30 May 2022 00:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	30 May 2022 06:00	148	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States
11	30 May 2022 12:00	184	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	30 May 2022 18:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	31 May 2022 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	31 May 2022 06:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	31 May 2022 12:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States, Mexico

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 May 2022 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Panama	878
100-250 mm	Cuba, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Panama	864,713	+
	Cuba	85,067
	Mexico	141,385
	Belize	2,342
	Guatemala	294,709
	Costa Rica	278,707
	Panama	62,502
50-100 mm	United States, Cuba, Mexico, Cayman Islands, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama	11,119,744	+
	United States	26,062
	Cuba	49,934
	Mexico	4,396,960
	Cayman Islands	57,668
	Belize	45,181
	Guatemala	2,895,541
	Honduras	51,632
	El Salvador	102,826
	Nicaragua	13,475
	Costa Rica	3,074,060
	Panama	406,401

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	28 May 2022 00:00	168	-		-	-	-	-	-	Guatemala
2	28 May 2022 06:00	132	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	28 May 2022 12:00	154	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	28 May 2022 18:00	129	-		-	-	-	-	-	Costa Rica
5	29 May 2022 00:00	153	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	29 May 2022 06:00	223	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	29 May 2022 12:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	29 May 2022 18:00	192	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States, Cuba
9	30 May 2022 00:00	218	-		-	-	-	-	-	Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica
10	30 May 2022 06:00	211	-		-	-	-	-	-	Honduras, Nicaragua
11	30 May 2022 12:00	273	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	30 May 2022 18:00	147	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States, Mexico
13	31 May 2022 00:00	114	6 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico, Guatemala
14	31 May 2022 06:00	122	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico, Belize
15	31 May 2022 12:00	452	870 thousand				-	-	-	United States, Cuba, Mexico, Cayman Islands, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.7 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 May 2022 12:00 UTC

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.