Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for AGATHA-22
in Mexico
28 May 2022 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone AGATHA-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 68 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (30 May 21:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 68 km/h 0.4 m 132 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 184 km/h 0.9 m 700 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

184 km/h

Up to 220 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 May 2022 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico223,564
+
United States12 
Mexico223,551 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 28 May 2022 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 2 28 May 2022 06:00 155 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 May 2022 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico258,331 
100-250 mmMexico, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama569,633
+
Mexico290,368 
Guatemala133,111 
Nicaragua8,626 
Costa Rica44,026 
Panama93,499 
50-100 mmUnited States, Cuba, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama17,757,261
+
United States61,933 
Cuba57,578 
Mexico873,246 
Belize22,046 
Guatemala8,299,091 
Honduras1,213,118 
Nicaragua1,173,252 
El Salvador1,057,630 
Costa Rica4,343,182 
Panama656,181 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 28 May 2022 00:00 168 -
- - - - - Guatemala
Blue 2 28 May 2022 06:00 921 830 thousand
- - - United States, Cuba, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 28 May 2022 06:00 UTC