Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for AGATHA-22
in Mexico
29 May 2022 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone AGATHA-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 133 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (01 Jun 08:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 133 km/h 0.6 m 192 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 184 km/h 0.9 m 700 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 May 2022 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico7,657 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 28 May 2022 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 2 28 May 2022 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 28 May 2022 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 28 May 2022 18:00 115 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 5 29 May 2022 00:00 112 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 6 29 May 2022 06:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 29 May 2022 12:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 29 May 2022 18:00 140 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

700 mm

Up to 2.6 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 May 2022 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmBelize, Mexico36,902
+
Mexico33,413 
Belize3,488 
100-250 mmMexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama2,558,310
+
Mexico1,079,901 
Belize157,840 
Guatemala274,106 
Honduras103,073 
Nicaragua294,197 
Costa Rica191,078 
Panama458,113 
50-100 mmUnited States, Cuba, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama19,861,571
+
United States11,599 
Cuba179,340 
Mexico2,658,137 
Belize161,921 
Guatemala6,129,279 
Honduras3,058,517 
Nicaragua3,282,172 
Costa Rica4,173,431 
Panama207,170 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 28 May 2022 00:00 168 -
- - - - - Guatemala
Blue 2 28 May 2022 06:00 132 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 28 May 2022 12:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 28 May 2022 18:00 129 -
- - - - - Costa Rica
Blue 5 29 May 2022 00:00 153 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 29 May 2022 06:00 223 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 29 May 2022 12:00 155 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 29 May 2022 18:00 579 2.6 million
- - - United States, Cuba, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 May 2022 18:00 UTC